Hardball Talk is casting Rob Manfred as taking an extremely hard line with union negotiations over comments he reportedly made in a meeting with Major League Baseball Player Association (MLBPA) representatives.

First, there is a number gaffe in Manfred’s statement given to Hardball Talk:

“The comments, the way the conversation actually went, as opposed to the way that it was spun: we invited the MLBPA to come forward with suggestions about midterm modifications that might address some of their concerns. In the meeting, Mr. Meyer suggested a series of changes that would turn the Basic Agreement back 50 years. I mean, essentially give back to the union everything we’ve achieved over the last few decades. “

MLB.NBCSports.com

This is the kind of gaffe that opponents of someone use to show that the speaker doesn’t know what’s going on, while supporters point out that people make mistakes when speaking aloud. With this kind of gaffe, the supporters of the person are almost always right. This one is extremely similar to the Barack Obama 57 states gaffe. If you listen to it, it’s very clear what happens is he starts to say he visited 50 states, but stops himself because he realizes that’s not true, he visited forty seven states. The forty, however, never comes out.

This what happened with Manfred. He meant 40 years. There is no way he meant going back to 1969, but 1979 was very different. Here is what free agency looked like in 1979, based on the agreement that took effect in 1976:

Players qualify for free agency after six years of service. Players whose 1976 contracts were unilaterally renewed (not signed by the player) become free agents after the season. (This group consists of 39 players, including Reggie Jackson, Joe Rudi, Ken Holtzman, Fred Lynn and Rollie Fingers.) Players with unsigned contracts for 1977 will become free agents after the 1977 season. Players with multi-year contracts may become free agents at the end of the next regular season, if they choose not to sign. A player entering the free-agent pool may negotiate with no more than 12 clubs (13 in 1977), which must have acquired the right to negotiate with him by selecting him in the re-entry draft. Clubs are limited in the number of free agents they may sign, based on the number of players in the free agent pool. However, a club may sign as many free agents as it loses in any one season.

Legacy.BaseballProspects.com

I could see where a re-entry draft might be interesting to the union, as clubs would be forced to state they are interested in a free agent. Then the union could rightly claim that a club that did not draft free agents wasn’t trying to win. I could also see the union maybe wanting the “unilaterally renewed” clause back in. In addition, salary arbitration came after two years of service.

So let’s just stipulate that Manfred said 50 years, but probably meant 40 years.

In the original reporting on the talks, Hardball Talk writes:

Which makes Rob Manfred’s stance during those talks somewhat surprising. Multiple sources briefed about what occurred in those talks told NBC Sports today that Manfred took an aggressive posture, telling the union that there is “not going to be a deal where we pay you in economics to get labor peace.” Manfred also told union representatives that, “maybe Marvin Miller’s financial system doesn’t work anymore.” Those briefed on Manfred’s comments requested anonymity because they were not permitted to share the details of July’s talks. Officials from the Major League Baseball Players Association declined comment.

Those briefed on Manfred’s comments tell NBC Sports that the impression left by them was that the league plans to take a hard line with the union and is unwilling to make any concessions on the numerous pocketbook issues about which the players are concerned, including tanking, the glacial pace of the free agent market, the Competitive Balance Tax, and qualifying offers.

MLB.NBCSports.com

The newer article gives Manfred’s view of the comments:

I asked, in response to his suggestion, what was in that deal for the clubs? He said, ‘Labor peace.’ The way the conversation actually went is I said to him, ‘Labor peace is a mutual benefit. It’s not something that you trade economics against. It is a mutual benefit it keeps the players working and getting paid and it keeps our business forward.’

To me, it seems like both sides are taking a rather hard line, but that’s what you are supposed to do in negotiations, especially this far out.

In the 1970s, and the 1980s, and even the 1990s, the union took advantage of owner stupidity. They took advantage of the misconception that players peaked at age 30, even though people like Bill James were pointing out that the peak was at age 27. They took advantage of the owners thinking that RBI and Wins were individual, not team statistics. They took advantage of the owners trying to keep the reserve system in place illegally, getting big rewards in the collusion settlement. They took advantage of big free agent signings putting people in the seats and a long run of different teams winning World Championships every year.

Then teams started hiring business professionals, not baseball people, to run their teams. They realized that big free agent contracts to players in their 30s were a waste of money. They realized that the most bang for their buck came from keeping a player in the minors until he was 23, signing him to a six year contract once he proved he could play in the majors, then letting him to when he became a free agent.

Players are worth more in their 20s than their 30s is the economics that is not going to change, even if the players go on strike. Marvin Miller’s system always had this flaw, but it took MLB 30 years to exploit it. If the MLBPA continues to cling to this system, they are as stupid as owners who clung to a reinstatement of the reserve clause, 30-year-old peaks, RBI, and Wins.

The union needs to move free-agency to an earlier point in a player’s career. Use seasons in the majors instead of service time. Put an age ceiling on the reserve clause, so players could be free agents after six seasons or their age 26 season, which ever comes first. Fight for no free agent compensation. Raise the minimum salary to $2 million. Lower the amount of time a player can spend in the minors before being eligible for the rule five draft. These make economic sense, and they also will be seen as fair requests by the public.

Maybe as a concession, the MLBPA might agree to limit the number of years on a free agent contract to four. That way, a team won’t be allowed to make a big mistake. Contract extensions, could be for as long as a team and player want, however. (That might quell critics of players who don’t their careers with a single team.)

It will be tough for the union. Owners are less dependent on the game for revenue that ever before. MLBAM, even the small stake the owners still hold, will keep them in the chips for a long time. Things have changed since the Beatles played Shea Stadium, where no one could hear them. Now Lady Gaga plays Fenway, and it’s an experience everyone enjoys. Teams are diversified. The players can’t really do diversification. Most have few talents beyond playing baseball.

So I see Manfred as issuing a wake-up call to Tony Clark. The current system is outdated, and trying to force MLB owners to act as they did in the past isn’t going to work. It’s time to try something new.