For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.348 — Luis Arraez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.330 — Donovan Solano batting against Kyle Freeland.
• 0.322 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.318 — Jorge Polanco batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.311 — Nelson Cruz batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.306 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Tyler Beede.
• 0.305 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jason Vargas.
• 0.303 — Daniel Santana batting against Brian Johnson.
• 0.300 — Michael Brantley batting against Jaime Barria.
• 0.300 — Kevin Newman batting against Jose Quintana.

Arraez is one of the may reasons the Twins won the AL Central this season. The twenty-two year old gives the team a potential batting champ as he matures.

Here are the neural network picks:

0.348, 0.758 — Luis Arraez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.305, 0.757 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jason Vargas.
0.330, 0.737 — Donovan Solano batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.306, 0.734 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Tyler Beede.
0.322, 0.732 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.300, 0.728 — Kevin Newman batting against Jose Quintana.
0.300, 0.726 — Michael Brantley batting against Jaime Barria.
0.297, 0.726 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Jose Quintana.
0.318, 0.724 — Jorge Polanco batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.296, 0.723 — Jose Altuve batting against Jaime Barria.
0.274, 0.723 — Tim Anderson batting against Aaron Civale.

It’s pretty good that a first year player can make the top of the list, as his three-year hit average is still highly regressed. Arraez is the top pick, with Solano the consensus second pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!