The National League Massive Tie Scenario died Tuesday night as the Nationals clinched a wild card slot with a double header sweep of the Phillies and a Cubs loss to the Pirates. That leaves the AL with a three-way tie for the two wild card slots as the only option. Luckily, it’s a very good option as Tuesday night worked out perfectly. The Athletics lost to the Angels 3-2, the Rays beat the Yankees 2-1 in twelve innings on a walk-off home run by Ji-Man Choi, and the Indians blew out the White Sox 11-0 as Jose Ramriez hit two home runs in his return from the illjured list. The Athletics now lead the Rays by 1/2 game, with the Indians 1/2 game behind the Rays. The Rays and A’s are tied in the completely unimportant win column. The probability of the three-way tie doubled from yesterday, up to 0.0634. The most likely outcome to achieve the tie has the Athletics going 3-2 for 97 wins, the Rays going 3-1, and the Indians going 4-1.

In addition, there are five different scenarios in which a tie can occur, from the Indians winning all their remaining games to the A’s losing all their remaining games. So everything is on the table. For today, the most important outcome would be an Indians win. For the probability of a tie to stay high, the Indians and the Rays need to stay within a game of the Athletics.