Monthly Archives: September 2022

September 30, 2022

deGrom Dinged

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Friday’s Games of the Day post contained this about Jacob deGrom:

 deGrom blew batters away this season with 91 K and just eight walks in 58 1/3 innings. He has allowed six home runs, however, and the Braves have an excellent power club.

BaseballMusings.com

He recorded eleven strikeouts through six innings, but the Braves picked up five hits. Three of them solo home runs as the Braves lead the Mets 3-1.

Update: The Mets load the bases in the top of the ninth inning, but Kenley Jansen strikes out the last two batters and the Braves get their must win 5-2.

September 30, 2022 September 30, 2022

Games of the Day

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The Orioles send Austin Voth against the Yankees as Aaron Judge tries to set a new AL single season home run record. Judge split his home runs evenly this season, hitting 30 at home and 31 on the road.

The Mets send Jacob deGrom against the Braves and Max Fried, New York one game ahead of Atlanta for the NL East lead. The Mets need to win one of the three games in this series to hold the tie-breaker, so the Braves really need to sweep this series to give themselves a good chance of winning the NL East. deGrom blew batters away this season with 91 K and just eight walks in 58 1/3 innings. He has allowed six home runs, however, and the Braves have an excellent power club. Fried makes his fifth start against the Mets this season, and so far he is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA. He allowed New York just 19 hits in 24 innings.

The Marlins try to keep the Brewers from gaining a wild card slot as Sandy Alcantara takes on Corbin Burnes. Alcantara’s 220 2/3 innings is the second most in a season in the 2017-2022 time frame. Justin Verlander threw 223 innings in 2019. Alcantara can blow by that. Burnes is in a two month tough streak in which he allowed a 4.61 ERA in eleven starts.

The Rays try once again to clinch a playoff slot as they send Drew Rasmussen against the Astros and Framber Valdez. In his short career, Rasmussen owns a 15-8 record with a 3.05 ERA. He allowed just 190 hits in 230 1/3 innings. Valdez, in his first full season, posts a 2.69 ERA to go with a 16-5 record. He allowed just eleven home runs in 191 innings.

Enjoy!

September 30, 2022

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Hoerner is not on the disabled list but is day to day. The Phillies and Nationals play a doubleheader today, so be careful picking from those games.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.320, 0.732 — Luis Arraez batting against Tyler Alexander.
  • 0.310, 0.730 — Trea Turner batting against Chad Kuhl.
  • 0.305, 0.717 — Freddie Freeman batting against Chad Kuhl.
  • 0.302, 0.704 — Nico Hoerner batting against Graham Ashcraft.
  • 0.307, 0.703 — Joey Meneses batting against Noah Syndergaard.
  • 0.297, 0.700 — Alec Bohm batting against Erick Fedde.
  • 0.302, 0.699 — Joey Meneses batting against Bailey Falter.
  • 0.289, 0.699 — Donovan Solano batting against Adrian Sampson.
  • 0.275, 0.698 — Bo Bichette batting against Nick Pivetta.
  • 0.291, 0.697 — Nick Castellanos batting against Erick Fedde.

The two systems agree on Arraez and Turner as the double down picks:

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 30, 2022

Best Batter Today

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The top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings remains the same. Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers, in third place, was the only one of the five in action on Thursday as he posted a one for four in a 5-2 win over San Diego.

Taylor Ward of the Angels posts the best game score of the day, a 76. He goes three for three with a home run in a 4-2 win over the Athletics. Ward, in his age 28 season, posted the best year of his career. He owns a solid .364 OBP and a good .474 slugging percentage. He’s a perfect complement to the superstar hitters on the Angels.

September 30, 2022 September 29, 2022

Fish Fly

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The Marlins kept the game close against the Brewers, Milwaukee taking a 2-0 lead into the eighth inning. The Brewer were two for eight with men in scoring position, allowing a number of scoring opportunities to slip away. The Marlins loaded the bases in the eighth. With two out and two strikes, Avisail Garcia hit one out in straight away center, just bouncing over the top of the yellow line for a grand slam. The Brewers now need a come back to gain that extra 1/2 game on the Phillies and put themselves in third place in the NL Wild Card race.

September 29, 2022 September 29, 2022

Orioles Bring the Clinch

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The Red Sox defeated the Orioles 5-3 Thursday afternoon. While the loss does not end the Orioles playoff hopes, it did put the Blue Jays into the post-season. It also reduced the Rays magic number to one, as the Rays hold the tie-breaker between the two teams. Tampa Bay leads the Guardians 1-0 in the bottom of the second, as a Rays win will clinch the wild card berth officially. The Mariners also hold the tie breaker against the Orioles, so a win later tonight would reduce Seattle magic number to one.

September 29, 2022

Phillies Slide

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The Cubs beat the Phillies 2-0 Thursday afternoon, Philadelphia’s fifth loss in a row. Opponents outscored Philadelphia 22-13 in that time, so they haven’t been blown away. Four of the five losses were by less than two runs.

The defeat does drop them temporarily into a tie with the Brewers in the race for the third NL Wild card slot, Milwaukee playing this evening. The Phillies have the tie-breaker, winning the season series 4-2, so they just need to stay even to make the playoffs.

September 29, 2022

Games of the Day

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The Rays finish their series with the Guardians, Tampa Bay trying to finish on top of the AL Wild Card race as they hold the tie breakers. Jeffrey Springs takes on Cal Quantrill. Springs is on fire down the stretch, with a 1.78 ERA in September in five starts. He just doesn’t go deep in games. Quantrill allowed just 171 hits in 175 1/3 innings despite batters putting the ball in play against him. He owns both a low walk and a low K rate.

The AL Wild Card race would be much more exciting under the old regime with two teams and tie-breaker games. The massive tie scenario would be in full swing.

The Miami Marlins meander to Milwaukee with Braxton Garrett facing Eric Lauer. The Brewers sit just 1/2 game behind the slumping Phillies for the third NL Wild Card slot. Garrett looks like a keeper for the Marlins rotation, with 81 K and just 19 walks in 79 1/3 innings this year at seasonal age 24. He will hit his prime next season as a solid second or third starter. Lauer got beaten up down the stretch, with an 8.25 ERA in September, allowing 17 hits in 12 innings. Philadelphia does hold the tie-breaker against Milwaukee.

Enjoy!

September 29, 2022

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Arraez is very likely to play as he tries to pass Aaron Judge in the AL batting race, as is Bogaerts. Keep your eye on the Dodgers starting lineup, as Dave Roberts rests players the last week of the season. The Dodgers set their team record for wins, so I don’t think the team will push hard to get past 110 Ws.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.306, 0.728 — Trea Turner batting against Sean Manaea.
  • 0.308, 0.722 — Luis Arraez batting against Lucas Giolito.
  • 0.304, 0.718 — Freddie Freeman batting against Sean Manaea.
  • 0.295, 0.713 — Harold Ramirez batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.290, 0.708 — Luis Robert batting against Louie Varland.
  • 0.290, 0.705 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Mike Baumann.
  • 0.294, 0.697 — Nathaniel Lowe batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.281, 0.694 — Alex Verdugo batting against Mike Baumann.
  • 0.282, 0.692 — Rafael Devers batting against Mike Baumann.
  • 0.281, 0.688 — Eloy Jimenez batting against Louie Varland.

It’s Turner and Arraez as the double down choices. Arraez hits Giolito poorly.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 29, 2022

Best Batter Today

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Aaron Judge of the Yankees tied the American League record for home runs in a season as he hit a screaming line drive into the leftfield bullpen for his sixty first home run in 2022. His one for four with a walk keeps him on top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Personally, I am much more interested in him breaking a record than tying a record. He comes home to Yankee Stadium over the weekend to face the Orioles with a chance to put him self alone at the top of both AL and Yankees single season sluggers. His probability of hitting at least 62 home runs stands at 0.83.

In the triple crown race, he leads Luis Arraez 0.3134 to 0.3133. That actually give Arraez a better chance of finishing ahead of Judge. Musings Marcels pegged Judge as a .275 hitter in 2022, Arraez at .303. I expect Judge to go 7 for 25 the rest of the way, Arraez to go 7 for 24. The overall probability of Judge winning the batting title and the triple crown is 0.39.

Jose Altuve of the Astros remains in second place as he does not start the game against the Diamondbacks. His teammate, Yordan Alvarez, also rests after hurting his ankle and remains fourth. Chas McCormick does start for Houston, and goes three for three with a walk and a home run for the best game score of the day, a 77. McCormick does not stand out in an Astros lineup packed with great hitters, but he does a decent job of getting on base. Arizona takes the game 5-2, It was one of six extra-inning games on Wednesday. That was the most extra-inning games on a day this season.

Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers ranks third after going one for three with two walks in a 1-0, ten inning win over the Padres. Pete Alonso of the Mets holds fifth place with a walk in five trips to the plate in a 5-4, 10 inning win over the Marlins.

September 29, 2022 September 28, 2022

Dancing in September

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Eduardo Escobar drives in all five runs for the Mets on Wednesday night. That includes the game winning RBI in the bottom of the tenth inning as New York beats Miami 5-4. Through the end of August he was hitting .218/.269/.383 with 44 RBI in 106 games. With his three for five tonight, including a two-run homer, he is hitting .330/.388/.638 with eight home runs and 24 RBI in 25 September games. With the Braves falling to the Nationals in 3-2 extra innings, the Mets are back to a one game lead in the NL East.

September 28, 2022

There Goes the Judge

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Aaron Judge of the Yankees connects on a 3-2 pitch in the top of the seventh inning to send a line drive into the leftfield stands for his sixty first home run of the season. That ties Roger Maris‘s single season American League record for home runs in a season. He had a very short celebration as his teammates came on the field to offer hugs, and that continued as he returned to the dugout. The Yankees lead the Blue Jays 5-3.

It’s been 61 years since Maris set the record. Roger Jr. and Judge’s mother sat together to watch it happened. Tim Mayza gave up the shot. We’ll see how high Judge can drive that number in the next week.

September 28, 2022

Feat of the Night

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While we wait for Aaron Judge to set a home run record, Gerrit Cole completed five perfect innings for the Yankees against the Blue Jays. Cole threw just 54 pitches so far, 35 for strikes. His fourth K, ending the fifth inning, ties him with the 1978 Ron Guidry for the franchise single season strikeout record. The Yankees lead the game 3-0 as they try to push Toronto down in the AL Wild Card race.

Update: Danny Jansen leads off the bottom of the sixth with a home run to end the no-hitter and the shutout. The Yankees lead is down to 3-1.

September 28, 2022

Three Balks and You’re Out!

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Marlins pitcher Richard Bleier became the first known case of a pitcher balking three times in one plate appearance, balking in a run:

“Words cannot describe what happened in that inning on my end,” said Bleier, a seven-year veteran who hadn’t been called for a balk in his first 303 big league appearances. “I don’t know. It was wild.”

Bleier grew increasingly agitated with each balk call. Following the run-scoring balk, Marlins manager Don Mattingly sprang out of the dugout and was ejected following a heated argument with the entire umpiring crew.

ESPN.com

Bleier was eventually ejected as well. The umpire thought Bleier was not coming to a complete stop. It’s an unusual set position, in front of his chest instead of near the waist. It’s almost like his arms quiver in that position.

September 28, 2022

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

The Reds play at 12:30 PM EDT, and Wilson is a right-handed pitcher, so Solano may not start. Arraez is always a good choice, and he is chasing Aaron Judge for the batting title.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.310, 0.726 — Luis Arraez batting against Johnny Cueto.
  • 0.325, 0.724 — Donovan Solano batting against Bryse Wilson.
  • 0.308, 0.713 — Yonathan Daza batting against Sean Hjelle.
  • 0.296, 0.712 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.306, 0.709 — Harold Castro batting against Daniel Lynch.
  • 0.274, 0.708 — Trea Turner batting against Joe Musgrove.
  • 0.282, 0.703 — Luis Robert batting against Josh Winder.
  • 0.297, 0.698 — Nathaniel Lowe batting against George Kirby.
  • 0.297, 0.698 — Joey Meneses batting against Jake Odorizzi.
  • 0.287, 0.697 — Rafael Devers batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.273, 0.697 — Michael Harris II batting against Josiah Gray.
  • 0.285, 0.697 — Alex Verdugo batting against Dean Kremer.

It’s Arraez and Solano as the double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 28, 2022

Best Batter Today

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Jose Altuve of the Astros posts the best game score of the day, an 84, to move into second place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Altuve goes three for four with a double, a walk, and two home runs in a 10-2 win over the Diamondbacks. His teammate, Yordan Alvarez, posts a one for two and was removed for a pinch hitter due to an ankle injury. He ranks fourth.

Aaron Judge of the Yankees goes 0 for 1 with four walks in a 5-2 win over the Blue Jays. The Yankees clinch the AL East title and a first round bye. Judge remains at the top of the rankings. He now leads Luis Arraez by one point in the AL batting race as Judge competes for the triple crown. The probability of him finishing ahead of Arraez is about 0.5. The probability of him hitting at least 62 home runs falls to 0.60. His pace is for 63 home runs, and the most likely total for him is 62.

Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers draws three walks for third place in a 4-3 Padres victory. Padres magic number for securing a wild card berth sans tiebreakers is five. Pete Alonso of the Mets reaches forty home runs for the second time in four seasons, his one for four in a 6-4 Marlins victory leaves him in fifth place. The Mets and Braves are tied for first place in the NL East, with the tie-breaker yet to be determined. The Mets lead the season series 9-7.

September 28, 2022 September 27, 2022

Cardinals Clinch

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The Cardinals beat the Brewers 6-2 on Tuesday night, St. Louis locking up the NL Central division title. Miles Mikolas pitched six strong innings, allowing four hits and a walk while striking out nine. Paul Goldschmidt singled doubled and drove in two runs to lead the offense. Seven of the Cardinals nine hits went for extra bases.

The Cardinals now wait for the bottom two positions in the NL Wild Card race to play out. They’ll face the Padres, Phillies, or even the Brewers for three games in St. Louis in the Wild Card round.

September 27, 2022

Yankees Clinch

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The Yankees beat the Blue Jays 5-2 to win the AL East division championship. Jameson Taillon pitched a nice game, allowing seven hits and no walks in 7 1/3 innings. The Yankees defense and the Blue Jays base running helped. In the bottom of the sixth, after a George Springer single, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were thrown out at second base on what should have been two doubles. On Bichette’s hit, Aaron Judge, playing centerfield, cut the ball off and got the throw in quickly to the right of second base to keep Springer at third. Bichette had slid in head first, and was over the base on all fours. His toes were off the base when Isiah Kiner-Falefa snuck in and made the tag. Then Guerrero hit a shot that looked like it would go out. He took his time getting to first. When the ball landed in play, he took off for second, but Aaron Hicks nailed him at second from leftfield.

Gleyber Torres had the big day at the plate with three singles and three RBI. Aaron Judge walked four times in five trips as the Jays pitched him very carefully.

The Yankees now have a week to rest up and get themselves in a position to be ready for the playoffs. If Cleveland loses tonight, the Yankees clinch a first round bye as well.

September 27, 2022

Heidi Bowl Two, Electric Boogaloo

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ESPN receives criticism for cutting in to college football games with Aaron Judge at the plate.

Could they not do a picture in picture for the event?

Didn’t they learn anything from 1968?

Actually, now that I think about it, NBC did the right thing. Games just kept getting longer after that. NBC should have stuck to their guns and said, “If you can’t finish the game in three hours, we’re not going to show the end!” That would have helped prevent the time creep we see today. 🙂

September 27, 2022

Games of the Day

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The Aaron Judge home run/triple crown chase continues as the Yankees once again try to clinch the AL East against the Blue Jays. Judge faces Jose Berrios. That match-up yielded a six for eighteen for Judge with a double, home run, a walk, and two strikeouts.

The Marlins visit the Mets as New York tries to maintain their one-game lead in the NL East. Pablo Lopez faces Carlos Carrasco. Lopez passed the 162 innings qualifying mark for the first time in his career. He allowed just 150 hits in 167 innings, but 20 of those were home runs. Carrasco owns a 3.21 ERA at home this season versus 4.57 on the road. Only six of his nine homers have come at home, where he pitched 23 more innings.

The Cardinals visit the Brewers, a St. Louis win clinching the NL Central. Miles Mikolas faces Adrian Houser. Mikolas needs 6 2/3 innings to reach 200 IP for the second time in his career. With a 3.35 ERA for a good team, his 11-13 record seems out of whack. Houser is a high walk, low strikeout pitcher, but allowed just 101 hits in 99 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

September 27, 2022

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Harris is now getting full credit for his high rookie season hit average. He doesn’t walk much, so his OBP come mostly from his batting average. He does strike out quite often, but makes up for the lack of balls in play with a .368 BABIP. If he can put the ball in play more with that BABIP, he might hit .350.

Here are the NN picks:

Harris and Castro are the consensus double down picks. With the Braves chasing the Mets, Harris is very likely to play.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 27, 2022

Best Batter Today

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Aaron Judge of the Yankees stays atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, going one for three with two walks in a 3-2 Blue Jays win. Judge stays on top of the batting race with a .314 mark as Xander Bogaerts goes one for five to drop into a virtual tie with Luis Arraez for second place at .313. I estimate there is about a 30% chance of Judge finishing ahead of both those players to win the triple crown. Judge’s probability of hitting at least 62 home runs to set a new AL record drops to 0.66. Note that the probability of him hitting at least 74 home runs to set the MLB record crashed. It’s all Roger Maris now.

Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers, Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve of the Astros, and Pete Alonso of the Mets did not play on Monday and remail two through five respectively.

Rob Refsnyder of the Red Sox posts the best game score of the day, a 73. He goes three for four with a home run in the 14-8 Orioles win. In his age 31 season, Refsnyder hit well above his career averages, posting a .315/.387/.514 slash line in 55 games. He’s played as much as possible against left-handed pitchers, with a .371/.423/.613 line against them.

September 27, 2022 September 26, 2022

Vlad’s Vliner

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. beats the Yankees with a line drive single in the bottom of the tenth inning as Toronto takes game one of their series with New York 3-2. He hit the ball hard. It was the definition of a screaming line drive. It seemed to be past the infielders before they knew the ball was hit.

Aaron Judge goes one for three in the game with two walks, the second an intentional pass in the top of the tenth. The Yankees had men on first and second with two out. The Blue Jays brought on a left-handed pitcher, which I though was odd with Judge at the plate. They walked Judge to face Anthony Rizzo, and the LHB ground to first base, setting up the Toronto win.

The Blue Jays stay alive in the AL East race.

September 26, 2022

Match Made in Washington

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The Braves lead the Nationals 8-0 in the sixth inning as Atlanta hit three home runs at Nationals Park. It’s not really a surprise, as Atlanta came into the game leading the National League in home runs hit, while the Nationals led the NL in home runs allowed. The homers drove in five of the eight runs.

Update: The Braves win 8-0. They are now one game behind the Mets in the NL East, and one game down in the AFILC.