Category Archives: Fantasy Baseball

April 25, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Log5 posts an all Austin double down. Freeland is a low strikeout, low walk pitcher, so there are lots of balls in play against him and lots of those fall for hits. They play in Colorado tonight, and that tends to add hits as well.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.297, 0.694 — Austin Hays batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.285, 0.692 — Aaron Judge batting against Jose Berrios.
  • 0.288, 0.686 — Bo Bichette batting against Carlos Carrasco.
  • 0.295, 0.685 — Austin Wynns batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.281, 0.684 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Carlos Carrasco.
  • 0.285, 0.684 — Steven Kwan batting against Tanner Houck.
  • 0.263, 0.682 — Jose Altuve batting against Seth Lugo.
  • 0.267, 0.681 — Brendan Donovan batting against Chad Patrick.
  • 0.245, 0.677 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Hayden Wesneski.
  • 0.288, 0.674 — Gavin Lux batting against Kyle Freeland.

In 2023, Hays started striking out more, but also, it appears, hitting the ball harder. So even though he puts fewer balls in play, his BABIP went way up, and so far this season it’s at .417. Combine that with going against a pitcher who gives up hits in a park conducive to hitting, and you have all the ingredients for extending a hit streak.

Hays is the unanimous top pick, with Bichette and Wynns tied for the double down choice. Witt owns a 16-game hit streak.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 24, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Nine games today, two of the taking place in Kansas City. Witt against Marquez should happen in game one. It looks like a good day for the Nationals as Povich allowed 30 hits in 18 innings this season. Ruiz, at seasonal age 26 is having a break out season. He’s always been a low K, low BB, hitter, but this season the batted balls are falling for hits.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.287, 0.703 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.278, 0.696 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Tyler Dollander.
  • 0.284, 0.678 — Amed Rosario batting against Cade Povich.
  • 0.293, 0.673 — Keibert Ruiz batting against Cade Povich.
  • 0.274, 0.665 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Cade Povich.
  • 0.281, 0.658 — Nathaniel Lowe batting against Cade Povich.
  • 0.240, 0.656 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jacob deGrom.
  • 0.250, 0.654 — Tyler Fitzgerald batting against Tobias Myers.
  • 0.261, 0.654 — Brice Turang batting against Landen Roupp.
  • 0.251, 0.651 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against MacKenzie Gore.

Note that the probability of the Witt Marquez matchup is up to .703 from .702 yesterday. That’s due to the league hit average rising from .211 to .212. More balls in play are falling for hits. Witt against Marquez is the consensus top pick, with Ruiz the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 23, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Witt extended his hit streak to fourteen games on Tuesday night.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.287, 0.702 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.297, 0.701 — Brendan Donovan batting against Bryce Elder.
  • 0.276, 0.685 — Aaron Judge batting against Luis Ortiz.
  • 0.287, 0.681 — Austin Riley batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.280, 0.680 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.273, 0.675 — Miguel Andujar batting against Kumar Rocker.
  • 0.277, 0.669 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.255, 0.668 — Xavier Edwards batting against Brady Singer.
  • 0.280, 0.666 — Trevor Story batting against Emerson Hancock.
  • 0.254, 0.666 — Corey Seager batting against JP Sears.

The two systems agree on Witt and Donovan as the double down pair. It’s impressive that a slugger like Judge ranks so high. He dropped his strikeout rate, which helps, but mainly he raised his BABIP to .492.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 22, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Wilson played 49 MLB games so far, but looks like a good player to extend a hit streak. He struck out in just seven percent of his plate appearances and doesn’t walk much (none this season). He puts the ball in play, and is batting .354 this season with a .500 slugging percentage. On top of that, he faces Corbin, who over the last few years proved to be easy to hit.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.281, 0.702 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.270, 0.687 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Bassitt.
  • 0.281, 0.683 — Miguel Andujar batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.289, 0.681 — Jacob Wilson batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.259, 0.675 — Brendan Donovan batting against Dylan Lee.
  • 0.264, 0.671 — Xavier Edwards batting against Nick Martinez.
  • 0.275, 0.670 — Josh Naylor batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.263, 0.670 — Aaron Judge batting against Tanner Bibee.
  • 0.266, 0.670 — Randal Grichuk batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.259, 0.669 — Steven Kwan batting against Will Warren.

Note that Luis Arraez is on the concussion IL.

Witt owns the longest current hit streak in the majors, thirteen games. Witt is the consensus top pick, with Wilson the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 21, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Arraez remains active and listed as day to day after his collision in the game against the Astros Sunday night. That’s very good news, although I suspect the Padres will give him the day off. Carpenter is also day to day.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.293, 0.720 — Luis Arraez batting against Keider Montero.
  • 0.280, 0.680 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Keider Montero.
  • 0.269, 0.675 — Jose Iglesias batting against Keider Montero.
  • 0.248, 0.674 — Jose Altuve batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.259, 0.673 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.249, 0.669 — Brendan Donovan batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
  • 0.269, 0.666 — Manny Machado batting against Keider Montero.
  • 0.256, 0.664 — Steven Kwan batting against Clarke Schmidt.
  • 0.245, 0.664 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Hunter Brown.
  • 0.253, 0.664 — Aaron Judge batting against Gavin Williams.
  • 0.245, 0.663 — Xavier Edwards batting against Nick Lodolo.

Both views see this as being a good day for the Padres, with or without Arraez. Montero struck out eight batters in five innings this season, but still allowed eight hits. His minor league history shows him with a low K rate, so the Padres should put the ball in play.

The double down is Arraez/Tatis is Arraez plays, Tatis/Iglesias if Arraez sits.

The Red Sox and White Sox play at 11 AM on Patriots Day, so get your picks in early if you like a batter in that game.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 20, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

  • 0.308 — Amed Rosario batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.304 — Keibert Ruiz batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.292 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.291 — Amed Rosario batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.291 — Nathaniel Lowe batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.286 — Keibert Ruiz batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.283 — James Wood batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.283 — Jose Tena batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.279 — Alex Call batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.277 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Kyle Freeland.

The Nationals play a doubleheader in Colorado Sunday afternoon and evening, and Log5 sees this as a great opportunity for Washington to collect hits. Rosario does have a history or ranking high on these lists. If you are going to pick a Nationals hitter, be vigilant, as players may only start one game of the DH.

The NN produces this list of batter with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.265, 0.702 — Luis Arraez batting against Framber Valdez.
  • 0.308, 0.695 — Amed Rosario batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.291, 0.692 — Amed Rosario batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.267, 0.679 — Jose Altuve batting against Dylan Cease.
  • 0.292, 0.678 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.251, 0.676 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Tarik Skubal.
  • 0.304, 0.675 — Keibert Ruiz batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.277, 0.674 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.270, 0.674 — Steven Kwan batting against Mitch Keller.
  • 0.262, 0.673 — Brendan Donovan batting against Clay Holmes.

Donovan’s hit streak ended Saturday, but Witt is now tied for the top spot at twelve games. Left-handers can give Arraez problems, and he is one for six against Valdez with a walk and a a strikeout. So not much information there. The Rockies scheduled Senzatela for the late game. Rosario against Senzatela is the consensus top pick (five for nine with no Ks), and he’s also the double down against Freeland.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 19, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a potentially high hit day for the Phillies. Quantrill owned a very low strikeout rate over the last few seasons, but now combines that with a very high BABIP, .386. I’ll also point out this article on Bryce Harper’s improvement at the plate. He laid off the slider, and thought that in ten days he would be crushing the ball:

Harper homered and walked on the ninth day of his 10-day timeline on Tuesday. He homered, singled and walked twice on the 10th day on Wednesday. On the 12th day, he crushed a two-run home run into the second deck in right field in the first inning and walked in Friday’s 7-2 victory over the Marlins at Citizens Bank Park.

“I just thought, ‘[I’m] walking more,’” Harper said, explaining why he felt he was heating up. “When I walk more, I see more pitches, I feel better at the plate. I think when I walk, good things happen. I’m getting good pitches over the plate and not missing them.”

MLB.com

Not, however, that Harper walking more doesn’t really increase the chance of him getting a hit. Haper is now 14th on the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. On the morning of the seventh he ranked 31st. Both Harper and Castellanos are two for eight against Quantrill.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.276, 0.700 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.250, 0.696 — Luis Arraez batting against Hayden Wesneski.
  • 0.275, 0.687 — Xavier Edwards batting against Taijuan Walker.
  • 0.283, 0.672 — Nick Castellanos batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.280, 0.671 — Edmundo Sosa batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.245, 0.670 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael King.
  • 0.266, 0.662 — Trea Turner batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.261, 0.662 — Yandy Diaz batting against Carlos Carrasco.
  • 0.264, 0.662 — Tyler Fitzgerald batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.244, 0.660 — Brendan Donovan batting against Kodai Senga.
  • 0.244, 0.660 — Corey Seager batting against Roki Sasaki.

Donovan’s hit streak is up to fourteen games, while Witt and Edwards stand at eleven. Seager and Arraez each own a six game streak. Witt gets the nod as the consensus top pick with Castellanos the double down choice. In a small sample, Witt hits Mize well. He’s four for eight with three walks and just one strikeout. The four hits include a triple and a home run.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 18, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Reds as Povich allowed 24 hits in 15 innings this season. His strikeout rate is fine, but he does not walk batters, and it appears they are taking advantage of his pitches in the strike zone. Hays only played three games this season, but with a long term low walk rate and a higher BA, he is a good pick for extending hit streaks.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

The NN puts much more weight on the batter than the pitcher, so much of the advantage against Povich disappears. Arraez’s long-term hit average keeps him at the top by a lot, but Donovan is gaining with his impressive thirteen game hit streak. Note that half of the NN top ten currently own hit streaks of at least five games.

Please do not fall into the trap of streaks predicting the future. Games are somewhat independent events. Don’t think of Donovan as “due” to miss a game because he has a long hit streak. His probability of getting a hit is neither lower nor higher because he is on a hit streak. Batters do get into spells where everything is working well for them, or nothing is working for them, but it’s very tough for observers to see either coming. You need to decide if today’s probability is worth the wager.

Donovan comes in as the consensus top pick, with Hays the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 17, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Donovan currently owns the longest hit streak in the majors at twelve games. It’s a hot hit streak as well, with him batting .478/.510/.674 with just two walks and six strikeouts. He’s putting the ball in play and those balls are finding holes. His strikeout rate was always low, but he’s turning walks into hits this season.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.270, 0.687 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Reese Olson.
  • 0.281, 0.685 — Brendan Donovan batting against Griffin Canning.
  • 0.259, 0.673 — Xavier Edwards batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
  • 0.261, 0.667 — Corey Seager batting against Jack Kochanowicz.
  • 0.261, 0.664 — Josh Jung batting against Jack Kochanowicz.
  • 0.253, 0.664 — Aaron Judge batting against Taj Bradley.
  • 0.277, 0.661 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.260, 0.659 — Steven Kwan batting against Tomoyoki Sugano.
  • 0.262, 0.656 — Tyler Fitzgerald batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
  • 0.253, 0.652 — Edmundo Sosa batting against Jordan Hicks.
  • 0.258, 0.652 — Luis Rengifo batting against Kumar Rocker.

Witt owns a nine game hit streak. Donovan emerges as the consensus top pick, with Witt the consensus double down choice. Overall probabilities remain low as the current season is still being highly regressed to the mean hit average of .209, which is very low and moving up ever so slowly. In general, 2025 is a tough season to collect hits.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 16, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It’s usually a good day when a team faces Corbin. He only pitched four innings so far, so his 2025 numbers are being highly regressed to the mean hit average. O’Hoppe is listed as day to day with an illness.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.257, 0.696 — Luis Arraez batting against Matt Boyd.
  • 0.266, 0.687 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Clarke Schmidt.
  • 0.274, 0.687 — Jose Altuve batting against Steven Matz.
  • 0.272, 0.681 — Xavier Edwards batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
  • 0.270, 0.672 — Amed Rosario batting against Bailey Falter.
  • 0.274, 0.670 — Steven Kwan batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.271, 0.669 — Luis Rengifo batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.274, 0.664 — Alex Bregman batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.264, 0.664 — Jarren Duran batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.248, 0.661 — Brendan Donovan batting against Ronel Blanco.

The NN does show overlap between this list and the longest current hit streaks. Donovan has gone to eleven, while Edwards and Witt own eight game streaks.

Altuve emerges as the consensus top pick. His short term hit average and the quality of the pitcher scheduled to face him has him doing well with the Log5 Method, while his long-term hit average helps him do well with the NN. Edwards would be the consensus double down pick. Arraez collected hits in his last four games.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 15, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Sosa is off to a terrific start in 2025, especially for accumulating hits. He’s 12 for 27 with just one walk, but does not start every day.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.250, 0.694 — Luis Arraez batting against Shota Imanaga.
  • 0.264, 0.683 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Max Fried.
  • 0.261, 0.676 — Brendan Donovan batting against Hunter Brown.
  • 0.263, 0.670 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.266, 0.667 — Yandy Diaz batting against Walker Buehler.
  • 0.258, 0.665 — Josh Jung batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.267, 0.665 — Edmundo Sosa batting against Justin Verlander.
  • 0.259, 0.664 — Amed Rosario batting against Mitch Keller.
  • 0.264, 0.661 — Ryan Mountcastle batting against Logan Allen.
  • 0.261, 0.661 — Steven Kwan batting against Charlie Morton.

Arraez’s long-term hit average of .303 still pulls him to the top, even against a very good pitcher like Imanaga. Witt, however, is the consensus top pick. Yandy Diaz beats out Sosa for the consensus double down choice. Donovan owns the longest current hit streak at ten games.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 14, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Dodgers as batters hit .415 against Senzatela, who struck out just six batters in 14 innings. Betts is nine for twenty against him with a walk, a hit by pitch, and just two strikeouts.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.285, 0.711 — Luis Arraez batting against Jameson Taillon.
  • 0.301, 0.709 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Carlos Carrasco.
  • 0.293, 0.681 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.290, 0.674 — Mookie Betts batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.284, 0.669 — Freddie Freeman batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.250, 0.668 — Jose Altuve batting against Sonny Gray.
  • 0.290, 0.667 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.270, 0.665 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Jameson Taillon.
  • 0.249, 0.664 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Grant Holmes.
  • 0.266, 0.662 — Manny Machado batting against Jameson Taillon.
  • 0.261, 0.662 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jameson Taillon.

Arraez just beats out Witt despite Witt facing an easier pitcher in Carrasco. Witt owns a six-game hit streak in which he’s hitting .444 and is the consensus top pick. Ohtani is the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 13, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Padres against Freeland, but the game is in San Diego where it’s tougher to collect hits. On the other hand, Freeland struck out just 15 batters in 19 innings and has yet to allow a walk (he did hit a batter). Hitters are putting the ball in play against Freeland. Machado and Tatis both have a history of hitting Freeland well.

The NN produces this list of players with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.308, 0.729 — Luis Arraez batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.282, 0.694 — Jose Altuve batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.268, 0.686 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Ben Lively.
  • 0.291, 0.684 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.287, 0.680 — Manny Machado batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.280, 0.680 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Cade Povich.
  • 0.274, 0.676 — Amed Rosario batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.278, 0.675 — Jose Iglesias batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.278, 0.671 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.262, 0.669 — Xavier Edwards batting against MacKenzie Gore.

The Padres sometimes rest Arraez against left-handed pitchers, and Arraez never faced Freeland. Even though the two systems show Arraez hitting Freeland well, you might want to work on the assumption that bat magician won’t start. Altuve and Tatis tie for the double down slot, and they might be your double down pair for today.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 12, 2025

Beat the Streak Pick

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Phillies as Mikloas posted low walk and strikeout rates over the last three seasons with a decently high BABIP. While Sosa does strike out a lot, he hardly walks and when he does put the bat on the ball, his career BABIP stands at .323.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.269, 0.700 — Luis Arraez batting against Tyler Dollander.
  • 0.274, 0.687 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Luis Ortiz.
  • 0.285, 0.685 — Trea Turner batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.290, 0.683 — Edmundo Sosa batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.278, 0.677 — Xavier Edwards batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.255, 0.676 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Anderson.
  • 0.268, 0.673 — Brendan Donovan batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
  • 0.276, 0.663 — Nick Castellanos batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.271, 0.659 — Bryce Harper batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.254, 0.656 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Ben Brown.

Arraez keeps coming to the top of the list based on his superior 2023-2024 efforts, but so far when the NN picked him, he’s only five for nine. The expectation was 6.2 hits, so he’s not that far off, but he just can’t seem to carry momentum this year. Turner and Sosa tie for consensus top pick, so if you want an early afternoon double down, that might be the way to go.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 11, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Quantrill is not definite for the Marlins, so Rosario might not rank that high if someone else takes the mound. Rosario overall is not that impressive a hitter, with a .274/.308/.399 career slash line. He neither gets on base well nor hits for power. His strength comes from a .328 BABIP, so when he puts the ball in play, good things happen. He owns a relatively high career hit average of .274. This season his hit average of .368 is the same as his batting average as all his plate appearance have ended in at bats. He is the kind of hitter who should be good at extending hit streaks.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.264, 0.700 — Luis Arraez batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.266, 0.684 — Jose Altuve batting against Jack Kochanowicz.
  • 0.276, 0.679 — Amed Rosario batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.272, 0.674 — Brendan Donovan batting against Aaron Nola.
  • 0.255, 0.674 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Tanner Bibee.
  • 0.254, 0.664 — Jackson Chourio batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
  • 0.262, 0.659 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.248, 0.655 — Xavier Edwards batting against Mitchell Parker.
  • 0.244, 0.654 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Tomoyoki Sugano.
  • 0.245, 0.653 — Trea Turner batting against Andre Pallante.
  • 0.244, 0.653 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Matt Boyd.

Arraez keeps pushing his K% lower, just 3.4% this season. His BABIP is just .269, however, well below his career average of .337. One would expect that to get better as the season progresses.

Rosario is the consensus top pick with Arraez and Altuve tied for the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 10, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Only six games on tap today, so you’ll see some different names in the top lists. Turang (12) and Chourio (11) rank two and three in longest current hit streaks. Guerrero owns a long-term hit average of .267, which is very good in this era, and Buehler allowed 103 hits in 84 2/3 innings during the regular season since returning from missing the 2023 season.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of recording at least one hit today:

  • 0.280, 0.684 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Walker Buehler.
  • 0.274, 0.680 — Jackson Chourio batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.256, 0.674 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Bailey Ober.
  • 0.272, 0.665 — Bo Bichette batting against Walker Buehler.
  • 0.254, 0.657 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Quinn Priester.
  • 0.262, 0.654 — Sal Frelick batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.253, 0.653 — Luis Rengifo batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.248, 0.652 — Jarren Duran batting against Chris Bassitt.
  • 0.246, 0.647 — Steven Kwan batting against Jonathan Cannon.
  • 0.268, 0.643 — George Springer batting against Walker Buehler.

Springer leads the AL with a .447 BA. He records seven multi-hit games this season.

The two systems agree on Guerrero and Chourio as the double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 9, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Brewers as they play in Colorado. Senzatela pitched nine innings so far in 2025 and struck out just three batters, leading lots of balls in play and 19 hits.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.255, 0.698 — Luis Arraez batting against Osvaldo Bido.
  • 0.286, 0.684 — Jackson Chourio batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.256, 0.678 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Joe Ryan.
  • 0.274, 0.676 — Brendan Donovan batting against Mitch Keller.
  • 0.264, 0.676 — Jose Altuve batting against Luis Castillo.
  • 0.266, 0.671 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Jake Irvin.
  • 0.265, 0.667 — Ryan Mountcastle batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
  • 0.279, 0.665 — Sal Frelick batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.264, 0.664 — Mookie Betts batting against Jake Irvin.
  • 0.251, 0.660 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Tanner Houck.

This list downplays the starting pitcher more than the Log5 Method, but Chourio still does well. He is working on a ten game hit streak and is the consensus top pick. Arraez’s bat lit up on Saturday and he is 11 for 17 since then with a walk, a hit by pitch, and no strikeouts. Brendan Donovan stands as the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 8, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

This list is more about the pitchers than the batters. Freeland and Corbin both allowed high hit averages since the start of the 2023 season. Freeland pitched well this year, however, while Corbin makes his first start of the season, now for the Texas Rangers.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit today:

  • 0.261, 0.700 — Luis Arraez batting against Jeffrey Springs.
  • 0.266, 0.687 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Pablo Lopez.
  • 0.278, 0.686 — Jackson Chourio batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.257, 0.681 — Jackson Merrill batting against Jeffrey Springs.
  • 0.278, 0.680 — Nico Hoerner batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.273, 0.671 — Sal Frelick batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.249, 0.670 — Jose Altuve batting against Luis Castillo.
  • 0.266, 0.666 — Jon Berti batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.273, 0.665 — Riley Greene batting against Carlos Carrasco.
  • 0.267, 0.662 — Kyle Tucker batting against Patrick Corbin.

The NN weighs the long-term hit averages of the batters more, so Arraez and Witt bubble to the top of this list, but Freeland and Corbin certainly contribute here. Chourio ranks as the consensus top pick, while Nico Hoerner rates as the consensus double down choice. Hoerner does have a history against Corbin, five for twelve with just one walk and one strikeout. This pairing tends to result with the bat on the ball, which is a prerequisite for a hit.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 7, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Both Witt and Woods Richardson played for a short time, but being in the same division they have seen each other a tiny bit. Witt is 0 for 5 with a strikeout against the Twins starter.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.262, 0.699 — Luis Arraez batting against Luis Severino.
  • 0.264, 0.688 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Simeon Woods Richardson.
  • 0.261, 0.686 — Jackson Merrill batting against Luis Severino.
  • 0.240, 0.663 — Jose Altuve batting against Logan Gilbert.
  • 0.254, 0.660 — Mookie Betts batting against MacKenzie Gore.
  • 0.252, 0.660 — Shohei Ohtani batting against MacKenzie Gore.
  • 0.251, 0.658 — Randal Grichuk batting against Zach Eflin.
  • 0.244, 0.657 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Richard Fitts.
  • 0.247, 0.650 — Aaron Judge batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.239, 0.650 — Jose Iglesias batting against Luis Severino.

Arraez regains the top spot after a big game on Sunday. He and Witt are a good double down pair on most days.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 6, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Astros as Paddack allowed a .288/.331/.467 slash line since the start of 2023. At relatively high BA with a relatively low OBP is a good sign of someone who allows a ton of hits.

Note that the Red Sox host the Cardinals in a doubleheader on Sunday, and St. Louis scheduled Mikolas for the night cap.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.284, 0.698 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Paddack.
  • 0.252, 0.683 — Luis Arraez batting against Ben Brown.
  • 0.259, 0.677 — Jackson Merrill batting against Ben Brown.
  • 0.255, 0.676 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Cade Povich.
  • 0.262, 0.672 — Yainer Diaz batting against Chris Paddack.
  • 0.258, 0.667 — Jarren Duran batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.254, 0.664 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
  • 0.258, 0.662 — Jackson Chourio batting against Carson Spiers.
  • 0.251, 0.661 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against David Peterson.
  • 0.260, 0.659 — Wilyer Abreu batting against Miles Mikolas.

Altuve tops both lists by a wide margin. Diaz comes in as the consensus double down choice, just ahead of Merrill.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 5, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Note that Marte pulled a hamstring and will likely land on the illjured list, while Bellinger did not play on Friday due to a back issue.

Harris II is off to a slow start this season with a .233 BA and no walks. So in his case, his BA is his hit average. Given that the league average is just .207, that .233 is actually good. Combine that with Quantrill being easy to hit, and Harris rises to the top of the pack.

The NN produces this list of players with a high probability of collecting at least one hit today:

  • 0.256, 0.677 — Jackson Merrill batting against Matt Boyd.
  • 0.244, 0.674 — Luis Arraez batting against Matt Boyd.
  • 0.256, 0.667 — Jose Altuve batting against Bailey Ober.
  • 0.245, 0.665 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Tomoyoki Sugano.
  • 0.258, 0.665 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Aaron Nola.
  • 0.265, 0.662 — Michael Harris II batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.265, 0.660 — Aaron Judge batting against Bailey Falter.
  • 0.257, 0.658 — Randal Grichuk batting against Mitchell Parker.
  • 0.252, 0.658 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Griffin Canning.
  • 0.260, 0.657 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Cal Quantrill.

Merrill remained hot with a two for four on Friday, and his eight game hit streak is tied for second longest in the majors. Harris comes out as the consensus top pick with Merrill the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 4, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Over the last few seasons sluggers returned as good hitters. For a disconnect occurred where singles hitters dominated the batting average category. This list is full of power hitters.

Arenado is off to a .391/.500/.609 start to the season. He is only 6 for 31 in his career against Buehler, however.

The NN produces this list of the players most likely to collect at least one hit today:

  • 0.250, 0.667 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.233, 0.666 — Luis Arraez batting against Shota Imanaga.
  • 0.262, 0.664 — Amed Rosario batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
  • 0.237, 0.659 — Jackson Merrill batting against Shota Imanaga.
  • 0.252, 0.658 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Jesus Luzardo.
  • 0.261, 0.657 — Jon Berti batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.263, 0.656 — Nolan Arenado batting against Walker Buehler.
  • 0.262, 0.655 — Nico Hoerner batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.253, 0.653 — Corey Seager batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.256, 0.652 — Aaron Judge batting against Mitch Keller.

There is a big disconnect between the top of the two lists today, leaving Amed Rosario as the consensus top choice. We’re still early in the season, and the small sample sizes can skew the calculations. Witt and Arraez reach the top on better long-term numbers. Arenado is off to a great start, and Rosario is in between.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 3, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a very good day for the Diamondbacks. Since the start of the 2023 season, Carrasco allowed a .294/.359/.522 slash line. A batter doing that would earn a very large salary. Grichuk is just three for twelve on the season, but all three hits were doubles.

The NN produces this list of batters with the highest probability of collecting at least one hit today:

  • 0.258, 0.671 — Jose Altuve batting against Joe Ryan.
  • 0.272, 0.664 — Randal Grichuk batting against Carlos Carrasco.
  • 0.260, 0.660 — Trea Turner batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.268, 0.657 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Carlos Carrasco.
  • 0.266, 0.656 — Edmundo Sosa batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.269, 0.656 — Ketel Marte batting against Carlos Carrasco.
  • 0.270, 0.655 — Gabriel Moreno batting against Carlos Carrasco.
  • 0.243, 0.653 — Yainer Diaz batting against Joe Ryan.
  • 0.255, 0.648 — Alec Bohm batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.251, 0.648 — Jarren Duran batting against Charlie Morton.

Altuve owns the best long-term hit average of the group at .275, putting him at the top of this list. Grichuk is the consensus top pick, while Gurriel gets the Borda count nod as the double down pick. Note that early in the season, the probabilities remain low as the batters are being highly regressed to the 2025 mean hit average of .204.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 2, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Phillies, although Freeland did pitch well in his first start of the season. Merrill owns a six game hit streak and is batting .400.

The NN produces this list of the top probabilities of at least one hit in the game:

  • 0.258, 0.685 — Luis Arraez batting against Ben Lively.
  • 0.263, 0.678 — Jackson Merrill batting against Ben Lively.
  • 0.262, 0.666 — Trea Turner batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.262, 0.663 — Alec Bohm batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.241, 0.661 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Freddy Peralta.
  • 0.245, 0.661 — Jose Altuve batting against Landen Roupp.
  • 0.257, 0.659 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Bryce Elder.
  • 0.259, 0.658 — Mookie Betts batting against Bryce Elder.
  • 0.260, 0.658 — Bryce Harper batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.262, 0.657 — Edmundo Sosa batting against Kyle Freeland.

Arraez rises and Sosa drops. Merrill, once again, is the consensus top pick. Turner and Bohm are the consensus double down picks. Neither hit Freeland well in their careers.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 1, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a bad day for the Logans. Allen allowed 240 hits in 222 1/3 MLB innings. Merrill is seven for seventeen this season with one walk and just two strikeouts. That’s the way to hit .400. Arraez picked up his first hit of the season on Monday night.

The NN produces this list of the top probabilities of getting at least one hit in a game:

  • 0.272, 0.700 — Luis Arraez batting against Logan Allen.
  • 0.276, 0.693 — Jackson Merrill batting against Logan Allen.
  • 0.270, 0.684 — Jose Altuve batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.259, 0.673 — Yainer Diaz batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.251, 0.672 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Chad Patrick.
  • 0.264, 0.669 — Corey Seager batting against Carson Spiers.
  • 0.255, 0.666 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.264, 0.665 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Logan Allen.
  • 0.258, 0.663 — Amed Rosario batting against Jose Berrios.
  • 0.257, 0.662 — Jose Iglesias batting against Logan Allen.

Logan Gilbert avoids both lists. Arraez posts the first .700 probability of the season, as he and Merrill are the consensus double down choices. Merrill and Tatis both own five-game hit streaks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

March 31, 2025

Beat the Streak Pick

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top predicted hit averages against starting pitchers:

Since 2022, Rengifo posted both low walk and strikeout rates, meaning he puts the ball in play a lot. In 2024 he added a high BABIP, meaning those balls in play were finding holes.

By the way, the first five game hit streaks are in place, and during the season you can see all streaks of at least five games here.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.248, 0.677 — Luis Arraez batting against Luis Ortiz.
  • 0.259, 0.671 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Hicks.
  • 0.252, 0.668 — Jackson Merrill batting against Luis Ortiz.
  • 0.265, 0.664 — Luis Rengifo batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.251, 0.663 — Yainer Diaz batting against Jordan Hicks.
  • 0.241, 0.658 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Elvin Rodriguez.
  • 0.255, 0.657 — Corey Seager batting against Brady Singer.
  • 0.256, 0.655 — Jon Berti batting against Joey Estes.
  • 0.257, 0.652 — Jose Miranda batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.243, 0.648 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Grant Holmes.

Arraez has yet to collect a hit this season. Note the probabilities remain low as 2024 data is being highly regressed to the mean hit average for the majors, which is an extremely low .204. The majors, right now, are not producing hits.

Altuve is the consensus top pick, with Rengifo the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

March 30, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 method yields these top hit averages against starting pitchers:

Since the start of 2023, Bohm owns a relatively high BA without a lot of walks or strikeouts. That’s a good formula for driving up the probability of a hit. Parker is a good match for those tendencies.

The NN produces these top probabilities for getting at least one hit in the game:

  • 0.241, 0.674 — Luis Arraez batting against AJ Smith-Shawver.
  • 0.248, 0.668 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Tanner Bibee.
  • 0.243, 0.660 — Jackson Merrill batting against AJ Smith-Shawver.
  • 0.253, 0.659 — Amed Rosario batting against Aaron Nola.
  • 0.251, 0.656 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Aaron Nola.
  • 0.254, 0.654 — Alec Bohm batting against Mitchell Parker.
  • 0.250, 0.654 — Trea Turner batting against Mitchell Parker.
  • 0.251, 0.652 — Yandy Diaz batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.248, 0.651 — Jon Berti batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
  • 0.250, 0.646 — Jordan Westburg batting against Chris Bassitt.

Arraez still does not own a hit in 2025, but his long-term hit average of .302 still pulls him to the top. Amed Rosario looks like the consensus top pick, and it would seem the Phillies at the Nationals is setting up as the game for hits.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

March 29, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

  • 0.266 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.262 — Michael Harris II batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.261 — Jose Altuve batting against Griffin Canning.
  • 0.259 — Jon Berti batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
  • 0.257 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.257 — Yainer Diaz batting against Griffin Canning.
  • 0.255 — Austin Riley batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.255 — Luis Arraez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
  • 0.253 — Xavier Edwards batting against Bailey Falter.
  • 0.252 — Nico Hoerner batting against Brandon Pfaadt.

Vasquez strikes out few batters, leading to a high number of hits, so the Braves should do well against him. Ozuna produced a .359 BABIP in 2024.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.255, 0.681 — Luis Arraez batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
  • 0.261, 0.665 — Jose Altuve batting against Griffin Canning.
  • 0.257, 0.663 — Yainer Diaz batting against Griffin Canning.
  • 0.247, 0.662 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Gavin Williams.
  • 0.251, 0.662 — Jackson Merrill batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
  • 0.266, 0.659 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.259, 0.655 — Jon Berti batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
  • 0.262, 0.652 — Michael Harris II batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.247, 0.648 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Jesus Luzardo.
  • 0.253, 0.646 — Xavier Edwards batting against Bailey Falter.

Probabilities are going to be low early in the season as the in-season hit average get heavily regressed to the league average, currently at .198. It’s been a slow start to offense this year. Arraez has yet to get a hit, but his 2023-2025 hit average comes in at .304, far above anyone else.

Altuve, however, owns the best Borda count ranking, with Ozuna second.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

March 27, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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The daily Beat the Streak algorithms will start running Saturday, after all the teams have a chance to play and a little bit of new data gets collected. In the meantime, this spreadsheet offers two data points that might help with your early picks. Hit average, hits per plate appearance, is the parameter that best represents the probability of a player getting a hit in a game. You can plug hit average into the binomial distribution to discover the probability of a hit in a game for a given number of plate appearances:

{displaystyle P(k)={n choose k}p^{k}q^{n-k}}

Where n is the number of plate appearances, k is the number of hits p is the probability of getting a hit, and q is the probability of not getting a hit (1-p). The problem is that going into a game, the number of plate appearances is unknown. The more times the batter comes to the plate, the more likely a hit will occur.

For Luis Arraez and his .304 hit average over the last three seasons, the probability of at least one hit based on the number of plate appearances:

  1. 0.304
  2. 0.457
  3. 0.645
  4. 0.760
  5. 0.835
  6. 0.886

This is why top of the order hitters make good picks, they are more likely to come to the plate at least four times. The second data point, percentage of starts with a hit, illustrates this. Ronald Acuna Jr and Masataka Yoshida own the same hit average of .261 over the last three seasons, but Acuna gets hits in 73.1% of his starts, Yoshida 69.7%. Acuna bats almost exclusively in the leadoff slot, while Masataka tends to bat lower in the order.

Interestingly, the Neural Network model seems to pick up on this without lineup information. My guess is that managers tend to put high hit average batters at the top of the order without explicitly considering hit average. With over 150 years of professional baseball, feedback from successes and failures in all sorts of strategies tend to move the game toward ideal strategies.

Arraez may be the obvious pick for the day. He is 2 for 9 against Chris Sale, with no walks and no strikeouts. He puts the ball in play against Sale, which is impressive in it’s own right, and balls in play can fall for hits.

Good luck!

December 1, 2024