For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 method yields these top hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.254 — Alec Bohm batting against Mitchell Parker.
- 0.253 — Amed Rosario batting against Aaron Nola.
- 0.251 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Aaron Nola.
- 0.251 — Yandy Diaz batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.250 — Trea Turner batting against Mitchell Parker.
- 0.250 — Jordan Westburg batting against Chris Bassitt.
- 0.248 — Bryce Harper batting against Mitchell Parker.
- 0.248 — Jon Berti batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.248 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Tanner Bibee.
- 0.247 — Cody Bellinger batting against Aaron Civale.
Since the start of 2023, Bohm owns a relatively high BA without a lot of walks or strikeouts. That’s a good formula for driving up the probability of a hit. Parker is a good match for those tendencies.
The NN produces these top probabilities for getting at least one hit in the game:
- 0.241, 0.674 — Luis Arraez batting against AJ Smith-Shawver.
- 0.248, 0.668 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Tanner Bibee.
- 0.243, 0.660 — Jackson Merrill batting against AJ Smith-Shawver.
- 0.253, 0.659 — Amed Rosario batting against Aaron Nola.
- 0.251, 0.656 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Aaron Nola.
- 0.254, 0.654 — Alec Bohm batting against Mitchell Parker.
- 0.250, 0.654 — Trea Turner batting against Mitchell Parker.
- 0.251, 0.652 — Yandy Diaz batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.248, 0.651 — Jon Berti batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.250, 0.646 — Jordan Westburg batting against Chris Bassitt.
Arraez still does not own a hit in 2025, but his long-term hit average of .302 still pulls him to the top. Amed Rosario looks like the consensus top pick, and it would seem the Phillies at the Nationals is setting up as the game for hits.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!