For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.267 — Edmundo Sosa batting against Justin Verlander.
- 0.266 — Yandy Diaz batting against Walker Buehler.
- 0.264 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Max Fried.
- 0.264 — Jonathan Aranda batting against Walker Buehler.
- 0.264 — Ryan Mountcastle batting against Logan Allen.
- 0.263 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.262 — Ramon Urias batting against Logan Allen.
- 0.261 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Quinn Priester.
- 0.261 — Brendan Donovan batting against Hunter Brown.
- 0.261 — Steven Kwan batting against Charlie Morton.
Sosa is off to a terrific start in 2025, especially for accumulating hits. He’s 12 for 27 with just one walk, but does not start every day.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.250, 0.694 — Luis Arraez batting against Shota Imanaga.
- 0.264, 0.683 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Max Fried.
- 0.261, 0.676 — Brendan Donovan batting against Hunter Brown.
- 0.263, 0.670 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.266, 0.667 — Yandy Diaz batting against Walker Buehler.
- 0.258, 0.665 — Josh Jung batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.267, 0.665 — Edmundo Sosa batting against Justin Verlander.
- 0.259, 0.664 — Amed Rosario batting against Mitch Keller.
- 0.264, 0.661 — Ryan Mountcastle batting against Logan Allen.
- 0.261, 0.661 — Steven Kwan batting against Charlie Morton.
Arraez’s long-term hit average of .303 still pulls him to the top, even against a very good pitcher like Imanaga. Witt, however, is the consensus top pick. Yandy Diaz beats out Sosa for the consensus double down choice. Donovan owns the longest current hit streak at ten games.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!