For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.308 — Luis Arraez batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.291 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.287 — Manny Machado batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.282 — Jose Altuve batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.280 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Cade Povich.
- 0.278 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.278 — Jose Iglesias batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.278 — Bo Bichette batting against Cade Povich.
- 0.274 — Amed Rosario batting against Cal Quantrill.
- 0.270 — Edmundo Sosa batting against Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.270 — Elias Diaz batting against Kyle Freeland.
It looks like a good day for the Padres against Freeland, but the game is in San Diego where it’s tougher to collect hits. On the other hand, Freeland struck out just 15 batters in 19 innings and has yet to allow a walk (he did hit a batter). Hitters are putting the ball in play against Freeland. Machado and Tatis both have a history of hitting Freeland well.
The NN produces this list of players with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.308, 0.729 — Luis Arraez batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.282, 0.694 — Jose Altuve batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.268, 0.686 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Ben Lively.
- 0.291, 0.684 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.287, 0.680 — Manny Machado batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.280, 0.680 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Cade Povich.
- 0.274, 0.676 — Amed Rosario batting against Cal Quantrill.
- 0.278, 0.675 — Jose Iglesias batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.278, 0.671 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.262, 0.669 — Xavier Edwards batting against MacKenzie Gore.
The Padres sometimes rest Arraez against left-handed pitchers, and Arraez never faced Freeland. Even though the two systems show Arraez hitting Freeland well, you might want to work on the assumption that bat magician won’t start. Altuve and Tatis tie for the double down slot, and they might be your double down pair for today.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!