The White Sox try to earn a split with the Tigers and gain 1/2 game on the Twins as Gavin Floyd faces Rick Porcello. Floyd posted a 4.20 ERA before the All-Star break and a 3.06 ERA since, but it’s not clear why. His walk and strikeout rates are comparable, and his home run rate is up. Opponents hit .292 against him with runners in scoring position before the break, .304 since. His lower ERA does not make sense. Procello showed great control once again, but his low strikeout rate means more balls in play and more hits.

The Cardinals send Adam Wainwright to the mound against Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens as St. Louis struggle to stay in the playoff race. St. Louis trails Atlanta by 6 1/2 games in the wild card race (they are six back in the NL Central). Wainwright is stuck on 17 wins as the Cardinals lost his last four starts, scoring a total of eight runs. Wainwright allowed 16 runs, 13 of them earned. Jurrjens is undefeated at home, 6-0 with a 2.15 ERA. His higher strikeout rate at home leads to a 19 point lower batting average than on the road with a lot less power.

Finally, the Giants and Padres start a four-game series in San Diego that will help determine the NL West winner. The two teams also meet for the last three games of the year in San Francisco. Matt Cain opposes Jon Garland in game one. Cain has been wild against the Padres this season, walking 12 batters in 18 2/3 innings, leading to a 4.34 ERA and an 0-2 record in three starts. Cain usually walks a batter every three innings. Garland pitches well in PETCO Park, where the home run dampening effects relieves him of a weakness. He’s allowed just five of his 15 home runs at home this season, pitching 12 2/3 more innings at home than on the road.

Enjoy!