August 16, 2024

Best Batter Today

Leave a reply

The top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings remain unchanged as none of the players saw action on Thursday. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bobby Witt Jr. and Yordan Alvarez stand 1-5 respectively.

The best game score of the came off the bat of Weston Wilson of the Phillies, an 81. Wilson went four for five, hitting for the cycle in the 13-3 mashing of the Nationals.

Wilson tripled and singled in the fourth; homered in the seventh and, then — with fans chanting “Double! Double!” — doubled to right in the eighth, with Alex Call failing on a diving attempt.

“When I was on the on-deck circle, I heard plenty of people saying it,” Wilson said. “Definitely knew. What I was doing was working, so I just kind of stayed with it.”

ESPN.com

It was the tenth cycle in Phillies history, and the fourth cycle of the 2024 season. Three of them came since the All-Star break.

Wilson only played 24 games in his MLB career, but carries a .333/.403/.630 slash line. Seven of his 18 hits went for extra bases. In four seasons at AAA he batted .247/.337/.467.

August 16, 2024

August 15, 2024

August 15, 2024

Back Out

Leave a reply

Christian Yelich of the Brewers decided on back surgery, ending his season:

The Brewers released a statement Thursday with Yelich saying he had made the decision “after careful consideration and consultation with medical personnel.” Dr. Brandon Rebholz will perform the surgery Friday in Milwaukee.

Yelich, 32, hasn’t played since being removed from a game on July 23.

ESPN.com

That’s two bad for all involved. It looks a long time, but Yelich built back to the batting power house we saw in the late teens. With the Brewers at the top of a bad division, they should be in a good position to go deep in the playoffs. Yelich’s production is tough to replace. Milwaukee would be in a much better position to bring home a World Series trophy for the first time with Yelich and Jackson Chourio hitting back to back.

August 15, 2024

Power Surge

Leave a reply

William Contreras of the Brewers continued his August heat with a two for four with a home run in a 6-4 against the Dodgers. After a weak July in which he slugged .395 on seven doubles and two home runs, he’s slugging .765, with 12 of his 15 hits going for extra bases; six doubles, a triple, and five home runs. That helped the Brewers to an 8-5 record in the month.

August 15, 2024

Opening Walks

Leave a reply

It looked like the Tigers opener strategy backfired today when when Alex Faedo didn’t allow a hit, gave the Mariners a run on four walks. Kenta Maeda came in as the reliever-starter, pitching 5 2/3 scoreless innings while Bryce Miller of the Mariners pitched seven scoreless innings to keep the game 1-0. The Mariners bullpen, however, gave up a two-run homer to Javier Baez, and Detroit wins the game 2-1. Seattle lost three in a row to fall three games behind the streaking Astro who have the day off. The Tigers won four in a row as they try to finish the season above .500.

August 15, 2024

White Sox Watch

Leave a reply

The Yankees beat the White Sox 10-2 Wednesday night, dropping the White Sox winning percentage on the season drops to .238. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of them finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go 11-29 the rest of the way to beat the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 28 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 122 games is .315. The probability of no more than 11 wins at that level is 0.36. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.46. So the White Sox right now have about a 36% to 46% chance of finishing with no more than 40 wins. Worst case, that’s almost even odds.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -6 by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .368, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.15, or about 1 in 6.

August 15, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Red Sox as Eflin brings both a low K rate and a low strikeout rate into the game. Duran owns a .358 BABIP.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.311, 0.734 — Jose Iglesias batting against Mitch Spence.
  • 0.288, 0.695 — Jarren Duran batting against Zach Eflin.
  • 0.278, 0.694 — Trea Turner batting against Mitchell Parker.
  • 0.272, 0.694 — Jose Miranda batting against Cody Bradford.
  • 0.266, 0.693 — Amed Rosario batting against Tobias Myers.
  • 0.282, 0.691 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Zach Eflin.
  • 0.272, 0.687 — Alec Bohm batting against Mitchell Parker.
  • 0.282, 0.685 — Rafael Devers batting against Zach Eflin.
  • 0.279, 0.681 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.282, 0.679 — Connor Wong batting against Zach Eflin.

It’s a unanimous Iglesias-Duran double down.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 15, 2024

Best Batter Today

Leave a reply

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto remained 1-2 respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Each posted a game score of 69 in the 10-2 win over the White Sox, which is pretty difficult when they bat back-to-back in the lineup. Judge went two for four with a walk, a double, and a home run. Judge broke two records with his 300th home run:

Judge hit the mark in his 955th game and 3,431st at-bat with a three-run drive in the eighth inning. The six-time All-Star and 2022 American League MVP drove a 3-0 up-and-in sinker from Chad Kuhl into the White Sox bullpen in left for his major-league-leading 43rd homer.

…

Ralph Kiner reached 300 homers in his 1,087th game, and Babe Ruth did it in his 3,831st at-bat.

“Those are some guys that have done a lot of great things in this game,” Judge said. “You throw around a lot of those names to people who don’t know baseball and they know who they are. It’s a special group to be in.”

ESPN.com

Kiner and Ruth saw different finishes to their careers. Ruth hit another 400+ home runs, and Kiner was out of the game a couple of years later.

Soto homered for the fourth time in five plate appearances leading off the game, then walked three times.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays remains third after going three for five with a double and a home run in the 9-2 win over the Angels. Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals went two for four with a homer and a walk in a 4-1 win over the Twins for fourth place. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros drew two walks in a 2-1 win over Tampa Bay, a game decided in ten innings in which each team collected just two hits. The Astros won their eighth game in a row.

Pete Alonso of the Mets and Eugenio Suarez of the Diamondbacks tied for highest game score of the day, an 82. Alonso went four for four with a double and a home run in a 9-1 win over Athletics. Suarez went three for five with two doubles and a home run in the 11-4 win over the Rockies.

August 15, 2024

August 14, 2024

Power Head, Power Heart

Leave a reply

Reds leadoff hitter Jonathan India and cleanup hitter TJ Friedl each hit two home runs in the 9-2 win over the Cardinals. India’s strength is getting on base, and his three for five tonight raises his OBP to .353, with his slugging going to just .395. While Friedl’s slugging percentage goes to .421, his had good power as his isolated power stands at .188. The

Reds move into a tie with the Cardinals for second place in the NL Central, both teams one game below .500.

August 14, 2024

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The good pitching matchup take place on the West Coast today. Jose Berrios squares off against Tyler Anderson as the Blue Jays visit the Angels. Since the start of 2021, Berrios allowed 102 home runs, third most in the majors. He does look a bit better on home runs per 9 IP. Anderson’s 2.99 ERA puts him fourth in the AL in that category. He allowed 111 hits in 141 2/3 innings despite a low strikeout rate.

Grant Holmes takes on Robbie Ray as Atlanta battles the Giants. Holmes makes his fourth start of the season to go with ten relief appearances. He owns a 5.52 ERA in his three starts, versus 2.70 in relief appearances. Ray makes his fifth start after his return from surgery. His K rate is back as he struck out 28 batters in his first 20 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

August 14, 2024

White Sox Watch

Leave a reply

The Yankees beat the White Sox 4-1 Tuesday night. The White Sox winning percentage on the season drops to .240. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of them finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go 11-30 the rest of the way to beat the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 28 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 121 games is .317. The probability of no more than 11 wins at that level is 0.31. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.42. So the White Sox right now have about a 31% to 42% chance of finishing with no more than 40 wins. So it’s back to somewhere between 1 in 3 and 2 in 5.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -6 by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .370, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.12, or about 1 in 8.

August 14, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Astros against Littell, who allows a .336 BABIP and seldom walks batter. Diaz emerged as a very good pick recently. His walk and strikeout rates are low, and this season owns a .329 BABIP.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.340, 0.748 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Louie Varland.
  • 0.302, 0.742 — Luis Arraez batting against Mitch Keller.
  • 0.334, 0.738 — Yainer Diaz batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.331, 0.734 — Jose Altuve batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.296, 0.726 — Jose Iglesias batting against Joey Estes.
  • 0.302, 0.713 — Steven Kwan batting against Jameson Taillon.
  • 0.307, 0.708 — Freddy Fermin batting against Louie Varland.
  • 0.291, 0.708 — Amed Rosario batting against Frankie Montas.
  • 0.312, 0.707 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.308, 0.700 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Jordan Montgomery.

The two systems are mostly in agreement at the top, with Arraez moving from tenth to second. Witt tops both lists, with Diaz the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 14, 2024

Best Batter Today

Leave a reply

Juan Soto of the Yankees moved back into second place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after a three for four performance with a walk and three home runs in a 4-1 win over the White Sox. That produced a game score of 91, the highest of the evening, and the 17th score of 90 or more. It’s his second 90 of the season.

Soto only trails his teammate, Aaron Judge. Judge went two for three in the game with two walks to raise his OBP to .466.

Third place belongs to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays. He homered in five trips to the plate in a 6-1 win over the Angels. Bobby Witt Jr.sits in fourth place after a one for three in a 13-3 Twins win. The loss drops KC six games back in the division, and just one game ahead of the Red Sox for the third wild card slot.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros remained in fifth place after drawing a walk in a 3-2 win over the Rays. Houston is now 1 1/2 games ahead of the Mariners in the AL West.

August 14, 2024

August 13, 2024

Soto Feat?

Leave a reply

Juan Soto drove in all four Yankees runs against the White Sox with three home runs. He will come up in the top of the ninth with a chance to tie the single game record of four home runs, accomplished 18 times. The Yankees lead the White Sox 4-0 going to the bottom of the eighth inning, Nestor Cortes spinning seven shutout innings.

Update: Soto walked on a 3-1 pitch way inside in the top of the ninth. The Yankees lead 4-1.

August 13, 2024

August 13, 2024

Head, Heart, and Core

Leave a reply

The Tigers down the Mariners 15-1 in Detroit on Tuesday night. Detroit appeared to be swinging early, as they knocked out 21 hits and drew just one walk. The 1-2 table setters collected six hits and scored four runs. The 3-4-5 heart collected eight hits and drove in three runs. The support core, 6-9, finished with seven hits and nine RBI. Catcher Jake Rogers knocked out two doubles and an home run as he won the RBI column with seven. That brought his season average up to .200.

Tigers starter Tarik Skubal went six inning, walking one and striking out nine as his offense gave him an easy inning. His ERA stands at 2.53.

August 13, 2024

Miranda Feat?

Leave a reply

It seems every time I look at something for the Twins, Jose Miranda is either getting injured or doing something great. Tonight against the Royals he is three for four, and his triple in the bottom of the sixth inning gives him three quarters of a cycle. He drove in two runs as the Twins lead the Royals 11-3. Stay tuned.

Update: Miranda struck out in the bottom of the eighth inning. The Twins lead 13-3.

August 13, 2024

I’ve Got No Kick Against Modern Jazz

Leave a reply

It looks like the Yankees Jazz Chisholm period was a short one:

Manager Aaron Boone told reporters on Tuesday prior to the Yankees’ game against the Chicago White Sox that Chisholm is likely to hit the IL with a left UCL injury.

…

Chisholm was stealing third base with two outs, and once he saw Volpe’s slow-roller go between the third baseman and shortstop, he started to book it to home plate to score a run. 

A throw from the White Sox shortstop was on target, but Chisholm’s head-first slide beat the tag for the score. However, upon further review of the play, Chisholm’s left arm got caught up in the cleat of the catcher, which could’ve caused the injury. 

MSN.com

He may have played it too darn fast. The Yankees were 9-5 when Chisholm played, which was great after their poor July.

August 13, 2024

The Next Rays Star

Leave a reply

The Rays recalled infielder Junior Caminero from the minors. The seasonal age 20 prospect ranked near the top among minor leaguers:

In ESPN’s Top 100 prospects list, coming out of spring training, Caminero ranked No. 3 overall after a minor league season in which he hit .324 with 31 home runs. Jackson Chourio of the Milwaukee Brewers and Jackson Holliday of the Baltimore Orioles — both currently in the majors — were the only two players ahead of him.

ESPN.com

He destroyed AA pitching at seasonal age 19. He did not hit that well at AAA this year, but he was slowed by injuries. It looks like the Rays think he’s ready, as he’ll be batting fifth and playing third base on Tuesday night.

The Rays are not afraid to start the free agent clock early on their prospects. They usually get an early long-term signing at a good price. Maybe Caminero will be smart and play until he’s a 27 year old free agent.

August 13, 2024

White Sox Watch

1 Reply

The White Sox drubbed the Yankees 12-2 on Monday night, Grady Sizemore getting in the win column as a manager. The White Sox winning percentage on the season rises to .242. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of them finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go 11-31 the rest of the way to beat the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 28 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 120 games is .319. The probability of no more than 11 wins at that level is 0.27. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.38. So the White Sox right now have about a 26% to 38% chance of finishing with no more than 40 wins. So it’s back to somewhere between 1 in 4 and 2 in 5.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -6 by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .363, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.1, or between one in five and one in nine.

August 13, 2024

Best Batter Today

Leave a reply

The top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings did not change due to Monday’s games. Aaron Judge, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto, Bobby Witt Jr., and Yordan Alvarez remain at the top of the list.

Spencer Steer of the Reds posted the best game score of the night, a 79 He went two for three with a walk and two home runs from the leadoff slot in a 6-1 win over the Cardinals. Steer owns a .237 BA, but his .324 OBP is one of the better ones on the club.

August 13, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Note that a number of players in the top ten are listed as day to day, including Witt and Marte.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

Both systems agree on Iglesias as the top pick, with Garcia the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 13, 2024

August 12, 2024

Betts Back

Leave a reply

Mookie Betts of the Dodgers accumulated no rust in recovering from his injury as he picked up two hits in his first four plate appearances in the game against the Brewers. One of those was a home run.

The Dodgers moved Betts into the two slot in the batting order as they decided to leave Shohei Ohtani at the top of the order. Ohtani hit for a bit more power batting first, although he did a better job reaching base batting second.

The Dodgers lead the Brewers 5-2 in the bottom of the eighth inning in Milwaukee.

August 12, 2024

Cubbage Passes

Leave a reply

Former infielder and long-time major league coach Mike Cubbage died of cancer Saturday at the age of 74. Much of his coaching career came with the Mets:

While the Amazin’s cycled through Jeff Torborg, Dallas Green and Bobby Valentine over the next six seasons, Cubbage remained a steady presence as the franchise’s third base coach — a position he retained through the 1996 season. 

NYPost.com

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Cubbage posted some high OBPs during his prime, making him a valuable middle infielders when those positions where not known for their power. Part of that came from him being platooned, as he seldom saw a left-handed pitcher. His best season came in 1978 when he slashed .282/.348/.401 with the Twins. It was his age 27 season, typically the height of a player’s prime.

August 12, 2024

August 12, 2024

Mariners Extend Robles

Leave a reply

The Seattle Mariners signed outfielder Victor Robles to a two-year contract extension.

The news of the contract extension broke Monday afternoon before the official announcement with a MLB source confirming the parameters of the deal — a two-year, $9.75 million contract with a $9 million club option for the 2027 season. It also includes bonuses and a $1.25 million signing bonus.

A week ago after another a game where he made multiple outstanding catches despite lingering hip issues, Robles made it clear to the media about his goals for the future.

“I just like it here. I want to stay here,” Robles told reporters. “I like the vibes the fans bring. I just really like Seattle. I would really like to stay here.”

SeattleTimes.com

So the Mariners are expecting him to be a half WAR player for two seasons. He is seasonal age 27, so he has a couple of prime years left. He really had just one good season in Washington at age 22, and a lot of that was due to his defense. Maybe going to a contending team brought out the best of him. It’s also possible that the Mariners see him as a super outfield substitute. This seems like a very reasonable deal.