Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners moves into the fifth slot of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He went three for five with a double in a 6-3 win over the Astros to cut Houston’s lead in the AL West to four games. He went on a tear starting 8/28, with seven games of at least three hits in the last 24 starts.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays drops to third with an 0 for 4 in a 4-1 Red Sox win. Tanner Houck of the Red Sox posted an interesting line, five innings, one hit, one walk and no strikeouts. The Boston defense played well last night.
Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers did not play on Monday as the teams took the day off. They rank one, four, and two respectively.
The best game score of the night belonged to Matt Chapman of the Giants, a 71. He went three four four with a walk, a triple, and a home run in a 6-3 win over the Diamondbacks. That drops the DBacks into the third wild card slot in the NL.
The Phillies beat the Cubs 6-2 to win the NL East title. Aaron Nola allowed two runs in six innings, and the offense collected eleven hits and five walks.
The team near the top of the best teams in baseball with the third best runs scored per game and the third lowest runs allowed per game. While the Phillies hit a good amount of home runs, they also allowed a good amount. Where they dominated their opponents was in overall hits, knocking out 100 more than they allowed.
They proved to be a tough team as a wild card the last two seasons. We’ll see if they can take advantage of some time off.
Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies hit a home run leading off the bottom of the third inning to put Philadelphia up 3-0 on the Cubs. The solo shot also game him 100 RBI, all from the leadoff slot. He is the sixth hitter to accomplish this since 1974, the start of complete event records. All game from the year 2000 on. Mookie Betts and Ronald Acuna Jr.in 2023 became the top two, Betts at 107, Acuna at106.
I suspect it didn’t happen in the old days. Lead-off batters got on base; the power hitters came up behind them. Now they do both.
The Phillies can clinch the NL East title with a win at home against the Cubs. Nate Pearson takes on Aaron Nola. Pearson will be serving as the opener for the first time this season. He brings a high K rate to the first inning, but he also allows a good many home runs, a strength of the top of the Phillies lineup. Nola finishes his tenth season in the majors, all with the Phillies. He will only have nine seasons of service time at the end of 2024, so he’s not a 10-5 player, but given his is signed through 2030, I suspect he’s going to stick around.
The Mariners open a three-game series against the Astros Seattle trailing Houston by five games. One Astros win in the series seals their division championship. Bryce Miller takes on Hunter . Miller owns a 1.54 ERA over his last eight starts, but only a 3-1 record. Brown pitched well against Seattle this season with 1.65 ERA in three starts, and no home runs allowed in 16 1/3 innings.
The Giants visit the Diamondbacks, with Arizona still having to contend with pushes by the Mets and the Braves for the last two slots. Hayden Birdsong battle Eduardo Rodriguez. In rookie year, Birdsong limited power, but walked a ton of batters for an opposition .332 OBP. Rodriguez make his ninth start of the season and owns a 5.09 ERA. He’s been knocked around at home, with a .526 slugging percentage allowed in Phoenix.
Bell, 52, received a three-year contract extension in July 2023 after the surprising Reds surged into contention following a 100-loss season in 2022. With an exciting young core that included shortstop Elly De La Cruz and a cadre of talented arms, the Reds were expected to be in play for a National League Central title.
Instead, they faltered, with injury and underperformance leading to a 76-81 record and fourth-place standing.
ESPN.com
Bell’s teams were around .500 for most of his time there, with one really poor season in 2022. Given all the injuries this season, 76-81 isn’t all that bad.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares offense in the current season to the previous season through the same number full weeks. After 25 weeks the 2024 season produced 8.81 runs per game versus 9.26 runs per game in 2023. The story of the season continues to be that all three true outcomes are down, but that did not lead to more hits on the extra balls in play. There’s over 500 singles, doubles, and triples missing compared to 2023.
I know the Guardians adopted a more aggressive strategy at the plate, and I suspect other teams or hitters might have emulated them. That strategy might prevent Ks and BB, but it might also mean batters are making contact on pitcher’s pitch.
The other thing I noticed, and I don’t have any stats on this, but defense seems to be incredible this year. I’m extremely impressed by the speed of outfielder and their ability to make catches on dives and jumps. With a universal DH, the non-fielders can find work and teams don’t need to hide them in leftfield or first base. On the infield after a year, teams figured out how to make the most of the shift rules. The ball hit up the middle may to turning into an out again.
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
0.259 — Bryce Harper batting against Nate Pearson.
The final scheduled Monday of the season features just four games. Tuner is on a bit of a hot streak hitting .343 with a .361 OBP and just seven K in is last eight games.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
0.284, 0.698 — Trea Turner batting against Nate Pearson.
Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and four respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Soto posted an 0 for 3 with a walk and hit by pitch, While Judge walked twice, adding a double and a home run as the Yankees beat the Athletics 7-4 and reduced their magic number for clinching the division to one. His game score of 74 ranked fourth on the day, just behind the 76 posted by Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers. Ohtani played another big game, going four for five with a home run, his shot leading off the bottom of the ninth tying the game. He currently ranks third in the standings, but with two steals to go with the homer he now owns the best power/speed number for a single season, a 54.0.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays remains second as he goes three for five in a 4-3 Rays win to raise his BA .327, seven points behind Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals for the AL lead.
Yordan Alvarez of the Astros moves back into the top five with a two for two, including a double, in a 9-8 Angels win. He left the game early with a knee injury.
The best game score of the day belonged to Triston Casas of the Red Sox. In game one of the doubleheader against the Twins he hits three home runs in four at bats as Boston takes game one 8-1. That resulted in a game score of 91, the 24th game this season of 90 or better. He walked twice in game two for a pretty good day at the plate.
The Dodgers to into the bottom of the ninth inning trailing the Rockies 5-4 with the top of the order due up. Shohei Ohtani leads off with his 53rd home run to tie the game, the Mookie Betts follows with his 19th home run to win the game. It’s a huge game, as the Padres won earlier. The two teams start a three-game series on Tuesday, and now the best the Padres can do is tie the Dodgers with a sweep.
Los Angeles hit four homers in the game to bring their NL leading total to 225. That’s 19 more than the Braves at 206.
Good homer power can be important in the post season, especially when both team employ good pitching. Since home runs don’t require long offensive sequences to score, they can make the difference in low scoring games.
The Padres beat the White Sox 4-2 on Sunday. Chicago led 2-1 in the eighth inning, but Luis Arraez pinch hit and doubled in a run, then Fernando Tatis Jr. homered for the lead. The White Sox suffered their 120th loss, tying them with the 1962 Mets for the most losses in one season in the modern era. Chicago can set the loss record without setting the percentage record. The Mets only played 160 games in 1962 and finished with a .250 winning percentage.
Note that the White Sox have now lost 30 more game than the division leading Guardians won.
Chicago needs to win five more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
Method
Intrinsic WPct
Probability of No More than 40 Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins
0.298
0.9898
Replacement Level
0.296
0.9901
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8)
0.352
0.978
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 40-122
Chicago only needs three more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
Method
Intrinsic WPct
Probability of No More than 38 Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins
0.298
0.748
Replacement Level
0.296
0.752
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8)
0.352
0.644
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 38-124
All probabilities now point to the White Sox winding up being the worst team of the 125 seasons of modern baseball. Even the plus eight Pythagorean WPCT has them failing two out of three times. Hope is fading fast.
The Detroit Tigers seem to be the only AL contender for the last two wild card slots that wants to win lately. They defeated the Orioles 4-3 on Sunday. Combine that with the Royals seventh loss in a row, the Twins defeat in the first game of a doubleheader at the hands of the Red Sox, and Mariners blowing a 5-0 lead to lose to the Rangers 6-5, and Detroit is now in the third AL Wild Card slot.
The Tigers started their push to the playoffs on August 11. Their 27-11 record since then is the best in baseball. The Mariners stand 18-20 in time, the Royals 17-21, and the Twins 16-23 pending the outcome of the nightcap.
The Royals have been particularly poor as of late, scoring 13 runs and allowing 31 in their seven game skid. Neither the Twins nor the Mariners were able to take advantage of that slide, and now it’s only a tie breaker that has them ahead of Detroit.
The Royals finish on the road against the Nationals and Braves. The Twins face Miami and Baltimore, the Tigers take on Tampa and the White Sox at home, and Seattle sees Houston and Oakland. Detroit has the easiest schedule.
The Mariners also blew a chance to gain in the AL West as the Astros fell to the Angels 9-8.
Update: The Twins lose the night-cap 9-3 and drop one game behind the Tigers.
Dick Moss, the MLBPA lawyer who won arbitration and grievance cases that led to large increases in player salaries, died Saturday.
Hired by union executive director Marvin Miller as general counsel in 1967, Moss argued the 1975 case involving pitchers Andy Messersmith and Dave McNally that led to arbitrator Peter Seitz striking down the reserve clause. That provision for a unilateral one-year renewal had been included in every contract since 1878 and had enabled teams to control players by maintaining those agreements could be extended perpetually.
ESPN.com
My thoughts go out to his family and friends.
The obituary serves as a good read on the history of free agency in baseball and other sports.
The Tigers play the Orioles, both teams competing for a playoff spot. An Orioles win and a Mariners loss put Baltimore in the playoffs. The Tigers don’t do well in tie-breakers, so they need to win every game possible to gain a wild card berth. An Orioles win, a Royals loss, and a Twins split with the Red Sox causes a massive tie for the last two wild card slots. That tie gives the Twins the top spot (14-12 versus the other two clubs), the Royals the second slot (13-13) and the Tigers wind up at the bottom (12-14). The Mariners are still lurking in the background as well. Detroit need to hope for a four-way tie, as the head to heads versus the four clubs stand at:
Twins 19-14
Tigers 17-15
Royals 16-16
Mariners 6-13
The Padres can clinch a playoff berth with a win against the White Sox (easy) and a Marlins victory over the Braves (tougher). The White Sox send Sean Burke against Yu Darvish. Burke makes his second start and third MLB appearance. He owned a 5.05 ERA in 233 1/3 minor league innings. He struck out a ton of batters, but walked a ton as well. Darvish owns a 3.29 ERA in his three starts back from the illjured list, but allowed three home runs in his 13 2/3 innings.
The Padres beat the White Sox 6-2 on Saturday. Chicago suffered their 119th loss, tying them with the 2003 Tigers for the second most losses in the modern era. The Mets lost 120 games in 1962. Here I’m watching the winning percentage record, but Chicago can set the loss record without setting the percentage record. Note that the Tigers were 38-118 then won five of their last six games to avoid both records.
Chicago needs to win five more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
Method
Intrinsic WPct
Probability of No More than 40 Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins
0.300
0.971
Replacement Level
0.296
0.973
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8)
0.355
0.941
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 40-122
Chicago only needs three more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
Method
Intrinsic WPct
Probability of No More than 38 Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins
0.300
0.647
Replacement Level
0.296
0.656
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8)
0.355
0.521
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 38-124
All probabilities now point to the White Sox winding up being the worst team of the 125 seasons of modern baseball. Frankly, I don’t put much stock in the Pythagorean winning percentage due to the team unloading players at the trade deadline. They may be +8 overall, but I suspect the current roster is very close to replacement level.
Their only hope is that they get to host the Angels for three games. They may need to sweep, as the Padres and Tigers are still in playoff contention. A sweep of the Angels only has them avoid the 1916 A’s winning percentage.
Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and five respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Soto proved his knee isn’t bothering him with a two for six night, while Judge went two for three with a walk and a home run, his 54th of the season. New York shut out Oakland 10-0. Brent Rooker of the A’s took and 0 for 4 in the game and ranks fourth.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays posted a three for five day to raise his BA to .324, but the Rays beat the Jays 3-2. Guerrero ranks 2nd on the board, and second in the AL in BA.
Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers rounds out the top five in third place. He singled and walked in four trips in a 6-3 Rockies win. He stole his 53rd base, with ties him with the 2023 Ronald Acuna Jr. for the best power-speed number at 52.5.
Kyle Tucker of the Astros posted the best game score of the day, an 84. He went four for four with a walk, double, and a home run to help in a 10-4 win over the Angels. He is hitting .405/.500/.667 since returning from the illjured list, making the Astros offense even more potent going into the playoffs. The Astros magic number to win the division stands at three, and the tie breaker in the AL West is not decided as they play the Mariners three more times.
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
0.295 — Mookie Betts batting against Antonio Senzatela.
Hitters like Ozuna, who both walk a lot strike out a lot, usually don’t make this list. He is posting a .370 BABIP this year, so he does a lot of damage when he puts the bat on the ball. Pair him against a pitcher with a low K rate and a high BABIP of his own, and log5 sees Ozuna crushing him.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
0.304, 0.747 — Luis Arraez batting against Sean Burke.
0.297, 0.718 — Yainer Diaz batting against Griffin Canning.
According to ESPN on news that broke after our tweet, “The Washington Nationals demoted shortstop C.J. Abrams to the minor leagues because he stayed out all night at a Chicago casino before a day game against the Cubs, sources told @JesseRogersESPN. … He was informed of the demotion Friday night, sources said. He will be sent to West Palm Beach, Florida, home of the Nationals’ minor league complex.”
NatsTalk.com
Note that Abrams is a young player who has plenty of upside, having posted 3.4 rWARs in each of the last two seasons. (FanGraphs has him at 2.3 and 1.9 WAR, which seems more correct to me given his underwhelming slash lines.) It’s better to try to curb that behavior before his potential gets wasted by a poor lifestyle.
The Giants beat the Royals 9-0 Saturday afternoon, extending Kansas City’s losing streak to six games. The loss means the Guardians clinch the AL Central title. Cleveland just got underway against St. Louis as they now set their sights on earning the best record in the league. They start the day 1/2 game behind the Yankees.
Congratulations to first year manager Stephen Vogt. He took a team that finished ten game under .500 in 2023, suffered injuries to important pitchers, and wins the division to put Cleveland in an excellent position to finally end their World Series drought that dates back their last win in 1948.
They are very similar to Milwaukee, a team with a new manager replacing a great one, and a team with a long World Series drought (you can’t get much longer than never). While the networks might not like it, a Brewers-Guardians World Series would be a lot of fun.
Meanwhile, the Royals now need to worry about making the playoffs at all. The Tigers beat the Orioles 6-4 in ten innings. Combined with the Twins postponed in Boston, the the three AL Central teams are separated by one game for the final two Wild Card slots with the Mariners still in contention, especially if they win tonight.
Catcher Dillon Dingler of the Tigers drove in two runs with a triple, and the Tigers lead the Orioles 2-1 in the bottom of the fourth. For the rookie, that was his second triple in 24 games. He adopted the golf adage, “Hit them far and not too often,” as seven of his first ten hits went for extra bases, and he’s hitting just .133 on the season.
Craig Counsell Just took out Cubs starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks with Joey Gallo of the Nationals coming to the plate in the top of the sixth inning with two men on. According to the Beat the Streak Neural Network (NN), Gallo versus Hendricks was predicted to yield the lowest probability of a hit in the game, .484. Keegan Thompson comes in and gives up a three-run homer. Oops!
Meanwhile, MacKenzie Gore works on a no-hitter in the bottom of the sixth with the Nationals leading 5-0.
Update: Patrick Wisdom homers with one out in the seventh inning to break up the no-hitter.
The Phillies can clinch the NL East title with a win over the Mets Saturday afternoon. Ranger Suarez takes on Sean Manaea. Suarez reach a single season high in wins with 12 thanks to all three of his true outcomes better than his career averages. He allowed just eleven home runs in 143 2/3 innings. Manaea turned out to be a key addition to the Mets, both eating innings and posting a very good 3.26 ERA. He allowed just 124 hits in 171 innings.
The Royals try to break a five-game losing streak that brought them to the edge of AL Central title elimination. A loss by Kansas City this afternoon give Cleveland the title. The Giants send Landen Roupp against Brady Singer. The games starts 5 PM EDT due to weather, as it appears it won’t be a sunshine day in the Midwest. Roupp makes his third start and twenty second appearance of his rookie season. He allowed two runs in 10 innings as a stater. Singer lowered his ERA by two runs compared to last season, but he was only able to improve his 8-11 record to 9-11.
The Guardians begin their game for the title across the state in St. Louis at 7:15 PM EDT Matthew Boyd faces Miles Mikolas. Boyd made the most of his short season, owning a 2.52 ERA in seven starts. He just averages five innings per start. Mikolas may be approaching the end of his career at seasonal age 35. Opponents slugged .454 and .487 against him the last two season, leading to high ERAs both year.
The White Sox played another close extra-inning game of Friday, with the Padres winning 3-2. Their 118th loss breaks the tie with the 1916 Athletics for third place for most losses in the modern era. The Tigers lost 119 games in 2003, and the Mets lost 120 games in 1962. Here I’m watching the winning percentage record, but Chicago can set the loss record without setting the percentage record. Note that two close losses in two games move them eight game below their Pythagorean projection.
Chicago needs to win five more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
Method
Intrinsic WPct
Probability of No More than 40 Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins
0.302
0.941
Replacement Level
0.296
0.945
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8)
0.358
0.885
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 40-122
Chicago only needs three more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
Method
Intrinsic WPct
Probability of No More than 38 Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins
0.302
0.547
Replacement Level
0.296
0.562
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8)
0.358
0.409
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 38-124
All probabilities for the 40-122 or worse finish point to a near certainty of knocking the 1962 Mets to second place for the expansion era. Finishing worse than the 1916 Athletics is less likely, but two of the three estimates of the team’s intrinsic winning percentage make that finish more likely than not. Even the most generous intrinsic winning percentage puts the odds at 2 in 5.
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
0.282, 0.701 — Jose Altuve batting against Reid Detmers.
0.300, 0.699 — Donovan Solano batting against Chris Flexen.
0.295, 0.692 — Manny Machado batting against Chris Flexen.
0.299, 0.691 — Jose Ramirez batting against Miles Mikolas.
With Francisco Lindor out, the Mets bat Iglesias at the top of the lineup, which gives him the opportunity for more plate appearances in the game. With Arraez the unanimous top pick with a very high probability of a hit, you can flip a coin on Iglesias or Merrill for the double down.
Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers moves back into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, jumping into the fourth slot. He went three for four with a home run and a stolen base as he returned home to Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers beat the Rockies 6-4. He now trails Ronald Acuna Jr.52.5 to 52.0 for best single season power-speed number.
When I looked at the Dodgers box score on Thursday and saw that Ohtani was three for three with two doubles in a blow out, I thought the Dodgers would give him the rest of the game off and allow him to join the 50-50 club in Los Angeles. Instead, Ohtani treats the home town fans to an extension of the group.
Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and five respectively after a 4-2, ten innings Yankees win in Oakland. Judge drew a walk in four trips, while Soto did not start, due to a knee injury on a foul ball catch the day before. He was well enough to pinch hit, however, and doubled in a run in the tenth inning. In the same game, Brent Rooker of the Athletics took and 0 for 4 to rank third
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays ranks second after one for four in a 1-0 Rays win.
Two batters produced game scores of 79. Alec Bohm of the Phillies helped push the team a game closer to a division title with a four for five game, including a home run. The Phillies took the game over the Mets 12-2. It reduced Philadelphia’s magic number by three as the Phillies now hold the tie breaker with the Mets. They have clinched a playoff slot, and the next team win or Mets loss gives them the NL East title.
Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners posted a three four five game with two home runs and five RBI as Seattle pounded Texas 8-2. It’s his fourth game of at least three hits in September. The team remains five games back of Houston for the division and two games back in the wild card chase. They lose all wild card tie breakers, but they do have three games left with Houston.
While I’m in curmudgeon mode, I don’t quite understand the “clinched a playoff spot” celebrations. You haven’t won anything. Ruining a clubhouse with champagne is not worth a third wild card.
I was very surprised to see the Yankees celebrating in this fashion. Act like you’ve been here before, especially when they have been here many times before.
Being a strict Jamesian, there is an obligation to poo-poo stolen bases. I find it much more interesting that Shohei legged out seven triples to go with his 51 home runs than that he stole 51 bases. Both are demonstrating the same thing, that it’s unusual for sluggers to be fast.
The bottom line in the Jamesian view of steals is that they do very little to increase offense. For example, using Bill James’ mid 1980s runs created formula I figured Ohtani’s runs create (RC) three ways; first with no alterations, second with no stolen base attempts, and third, turning all his home runs into doubles.
Season
RC
RC no SB attempts
RC HR as Doubles
2018
69
69
53
2019
68
67
56
2020
18
17
14
2021
122
123
90
2022
109
112
87
2023
138
137
104
2024
153
146
116
Ohtani RC by Season
I didn’t want to eliminate HR It might be more accurate to divide those hits into some combination of singles, doubles, triples, and inside the park homers. Valuing the dingers as doubles is close enough for demonstration purposes. What is obvious here is that Ohtani would be a fantastic offensive player if he never attempted a steal. Reducing the value of his home run hits takes away much more offense that his steals.
What we should be celebrating with his steals is his extremely high SB percentage. He’s only been caught four times! Ohtani’s 92.7 stolen base percentage is the third best of the expansion era for anyone with 50 attempts. Jimmy Rollins went 47 for 50 in 2008, and Jacoby Ellsbury went 52 for 56 in 2013. Note that fourth on the list is Davey Lopes 47 for 51 in 1985 (tied by CJ Abrams in 2023), so high SB% are not unusual to the Dodgers. Because of the great SB rate, taking the steals away from Ohtani knocks him down seven runs instead of one or two. If a slugger is going to run, that’s the way to do it.
I know lots of fans love stolen bases, and major league baseball went out of it’s way to make this type of season possible. The top two power speed numbers happened with the change of the pick-off rule and the enlarged bases, so the league got their wish.
Looking at the chart brought up another thought, however. When Ohtani underwent his first Tommy John surgery, I wrote:
Ohtani should give up the two-way player option. He’s a fine hitter, and worth the money on that side of the ball. Let him and just hit and have a longer career.
BaseballMusings.com
Look at the fantastic season he posted while not having to worry about pitching. He’s worth one WAR less this season than in either of previous two seasons, and very close to his 8.0 combined WAR in 2021. Is it really worth an extra WAR a season to have him keep pitching? What if the next pitching injury takes his bat out of the lineup as well?
Personally, I’d like to see how many 50 home runs seasons he can post, how many triples he can hit, and if can keep stealing bases at an extremely high rate. I’m willing to trade a his pitching ability to make that possible.
The Tigers are tied with the Twins for the third AL Wild Card slot, but Minnesota won the season series 7-6. Detroit tries to chase down the Wild Card leading Orioles, but the Tigers have not announced a starting pitcher for the game. They will face Corbin Burnes, who already set a career high in wins with 14. In as possible three way tie between the Royals, Tigers and Twins, Minnesota gets the high seed, the Royals get the next seed, and the Tigers are either in with the third seed or out.
The Mets try to keep the Phillies magic number at four as Philadelphia sends Cristopher Sanchez against David Peterson. Both pitchers do a great job of limiting home runs.
