November 1, 2020

This Date in 1920

There is some movement toward compromise on November 1, 1920. November 1st was the deadline for the five AL teams loyal to president Ban Johnson to join the Lasker plan. Instead, they issue a plan of their own. NL president John Heydler takes the counter proposal to mean that the two sides are willing to negotiate:

“Mr. Johnson and the five clubs supporting him, all of whom refused to meet us in Chicago recently, have been invited to a joint meeting in Chicago next Monday, ” said President John A. Heydler of the National League yesterday afternoon. “As was intimated upon our return from Chicago, the eleven who made a solemn covenant for a proper reorganization of baseball government are tolerant rather than antagonistic to those who refused to discuss the issue. It is hoped the five will be on hand in Chicago next Monday.”
New York Tribune

The article goes on to note that the Lasker group will meet with the minor leagues next week in Kansas City at at annual meeting of the National Association. Both sides are working on bringing the minors on board.

October 31, 2020

Wishes for 2021

I really hope Joe McCarthy gets traded to the Reds.

October 31, 2020

Fun With Data

Google Data Studio offers a free way to present data. It seems worth learning, and applying it to Musings Marcels data looks like a good place to start. This data presentation contains two pages. The first examines the three-true outcome predictions for batters for 2021. The TTO Score column is a combination of the linear weights for the three events. The second page presents the predicted offensive averages for the players, and you can use a slider to set the minimum number of plate appearances. If people like these, more can be added. Put your suggestions in the comments.

October 31, 2020

This Date in 1920

October 31, 1920 brings news that Rube Marquard will get a hearing on his suspension from baseball due to scalping tickets at the World Series:

Organized baseball always has been very firm and virtuous about disciplining a young ball player or an old ball player who is about through. But the punishment of Rube Marquard is all out of proportion. It is the same punishment that was meted out to the Chicago Players who sold themselves to the gamblers. Moreover, the scalpers around New York had plenty of tickets to the Brooklyn game, which would indicate that others beside the Rube were engaged in the ticket business during the series.
New York Tribune

Baseball reinstated Marquard, but Charles Ebbetts, owner of the Dodgers, would not allow him to pitch for Brooklyn:

“I am through with him, absolutely,” said Brooklyn President Charles Ebbets. “He hasn’t been released, however, and if anyone wants him, he can have him. But Marquard will never again put on a Brooklyn uniform.”19
True to Ebbets’s word, the Robins traded Marquard to Cincinnati for pitcher Dutch Ruether on December 15, 1920. Marquard won 17 games (17-14, 3.39 ERA) for the Reds in 1921. But the Reds, who had just won the World Series in 1919, sank to the second division in the NL. Marquard, who had divorced Blossom Seeley, married Naomi Wigley from Baltimore in 1921.
SABR.org

Looking at his biography, there appears to be a bit of sketchiness to Marquard’s life.

October 30, 2020

Hinch Gets a Job

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A.J. Hinch landed the Detroit Tigers managerial job despite his suspension for his role (or non-role) in the Houston Astros sign stealing scandal:

“This was a man that had learned and grown from the experience, and that resonated with me,” said Christopher Ilitch, Detroit Tigers Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said. “We have high expectations for how we’re going to perform on the field, in terms of wins and losses, but also how we conduct ourselves. And I believe, to my core, that AJ is going to conduct himself in the appropriate manner beyond appropriate manner in all regards.”
Freep.com

I hope I am not the only one bothered that two managers who basically looked the other way while their players engaged in questionable activities just received choice managerial jobs.

October 30, 2020

Cohen Approved

MLB and the mayor of New York approved Steve Cohen as the new owner of the Mets Friday afternoon.

“I am humbled that MLB’s owners have approved me to be the next owner of the New York Mets,” Cohen said in a statement. “Owning a team is a great privilege and an awesome responsibility. I would like to thank the owners and Commissioner [Rob] Manfred and his team for welcoming me to Major League Baseball.
“And I want to thank Fred Wilpon for inviting me to buy into the franchise in 2012. Fred is one of the game’s true gentlemen and I consider it to be an honor to be the new owner of this iconic franchise.”
NYPost.com

He also teased that the Mets will be in on free agents. A person with a lot of money who wants to win should be good for the Mets future.

October 30, 2020

This Date in 1920

Baseball generated no stories on October 30, 1920, that graced the sports pages the next day. College football dominated the news When I see the football news from that era, it’s a bit of a shock to see Ivy League teams dominating the headlines. With a lack of professional sports outside of baseball, even minor college sports get a mention in the paper.

Some things never change, however. Like this year, an election is a few days away and the front page headline reads, “Democratic Official Arrested for Lie About Harding.” October surprises are nothing new. It wasn’t until 2015 that this charge was indeed proved false. The proof came about because there was a sex scandal involving Harding at the time that was true and would have been just a damning in that era.

October 29, 2020

The Ages of La Russa

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The White Sox hire Tony La Russa to manage the team, thirty four years after they fire him.

He becomes the oldest manager in the major leagues by five years. Houston’s Dusty Baker is 71.
ESPN.com

I’m old enough to remember when La Russa was the youngest manager in the majors.

I liked La Russa when I was young, as he seemed to be a much more cerebral manager than most in that day. I came to dislike his constant pitching changes, however. I also have a real problem with La Russa and Sandy Alderson being in the middle of ground zero of the steroid scandal and ignoring the problem. They’re very much in the mold of Jeff Luhnow, being willfully ignorant of the situation around them.

So good luck to the White Sox. Rick Renteria developed the talent. The front office thinks La Russa can take them over the finish line. We’ll see.

October 29, 2020

This Date in 1920

American League President Ban Johnson holds a meeting with the five loyal AL teams on October 29, 1920. They announce an alternative to the Lasker plan:

The beard’s answer suggests that a committee of nine Members — three each from the National League, the American League, and the National Association of Professional Baseball Leagues (minor leagues) — work out a plan of reorganization. This committee, it was pointed out, will give due consideration, not only to the major leagues, but to the minor leagues as well.
New York Tribune

Johnson’s plan aims get the minor leagues on his side, and use the sheer numbers of other teams to swamp the eleven teams who want the Lasker plan. Johnson does make a very good point later in the article:

“The thing that will stop gambling in baseball is the certainty, speed and severity of the punishment meted out to those who sell games, or do the gambling.”

Which is what baseball adopted anyway.

In other baseball news, the Giants hire Hughey Jennings, recently resigned from the Tigers, as their assistant manager. Jennings is very good friends with Giants manager John McGraw.

October 29, 2020

That’s Strange

Dee Gordon appears to have gone back to using his hyphenated name:

The Seattle Mariners declined their $14 million club option on infielder Dee Strange-Gordon for the 2021 season on Wednesday, making the veteran eligible for free agency.
ESPN.com

The original upload of this player’s name into the Day by Day Database was Strange-Gordon, which made him a tiny bit difficult to find, since one would look under the Gs. Here’s the story of the change:

Strange-Gordon told B/R’s Scott Miller in 2019 that Devaris Strange-Gordon is his legal name, but after a public address announcer in rookie ball badly mispronounced his full name, he asked to just be called Dee Gordon.
BleacherReport.com

Strange-Gordon is his legal name, and he has gone back to the hyphenated version to honor his mother, who was killed when he was seven. I’ll be making the change to the database.

As for the option, Strange-Gordon posted a 0.2 WAR combined over the last three seasons, making the $14 million option not worth it.

October 28, 2020

2021 Musings Marcels

With the end of the 2020, this blog presents Musings Marcels, Tom Tango’s simple but effective predictors for the upcoming season. There are two spreadsheets, Marcels for Batters and Marcels for Pitchers, which models the opposition batters. Feel free to download for your fantasy drafts, and feel free to share with your friends.

The numbers reflect batting and pitcher over a 162 game season. To get a decent estimate of plate appearances, I multiplied 2020 PA by 2.7 (162/60). The numbers look reasonable to me, but I’d love to hear your opinion.

You can find Tango’s original work here.

October 28, 2020

Best Batter Today

The 2020 season ends with Corey Seager atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. I suspect the order of Seager, Jose Ramirez, Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna, and Jose Abreu will not change until competitive games are played next year.

October 28, 2020

Turner in Trouble

Justin Turner returned to the field after the Dodgers won the World Series in violation of MLB protocols and in defiance of MLB security. MLB removed him from the game in the seventh inning after testing positive for COVID-19:

“While a desire to celebrate is understandable, Turner’s decision to leave isolation and enter the field was wrong and put everyone he came in contact with at risk. When MLB Security raised the matter of being on the field with Turner, he emphatically refused to comply.
“The Commissioner’s Office is beginning a full investigation into this matter and will consult with the Players Association within the parameters of the joint 2020 Operations Manual.”
LATimes.com

If the MLBPA brings a grievance over the imposition of a sixty game season, I suspect MLB will fight back with examples of players breaking protocols and putting the season at risk.

The article also discusses the possibility of calling the game at the point of learning there was a positive test:

“They were unlikely to continue to spread it that much by finishing that game, certainly from the Dodgers to the Rays,” Binney said. “You would expect that any transmission from Turner to other people in the organization had happened both recently and already, so that playing the rest of the game arguably would not result in more spread among the Dodgers.”

I hope that Turner stays asymptomatic and has an easy time with the disease.

October 28, 2020

This Date in 1920

A grand jury indicts Giants manager John McGraw on October 28, 1920 for previously buying a bottle of whisky:

John J. McGraw, central figure in the recent Lambs Club scandal and manager and part owner of the New York Giants, was indicted yesterday by the Federal grand jury on a charge of violating the Volstead act. The chief allegation is that he possessed one bottle of whisky contrary to law.
New York Tribune

The prohibition of the sale of alcohol was just starting to hit home in late 1920. The Volstead act, which grew out of the eighteenth amendment, was upheld by the supreme court in the summer of 1920. That’s when the prosecutions began.

Teams announced two managerial signings as Miller Huggins and the Yankees agree on a one year deal, while Johnny Evers returns to the Cubs as the field manager. The article on the Huggins signing indicates that Babe Ruth and the manager do not get along. Also Dave Fultz, president of the International League criticizes the Lasker Plan:

“The Lasker plan contains the same fundamental error of government as the one upon which the national agreement rode to its fall. It provides that minor, as well as major leagues, shall be controlled by a board of three men, who are chosen solely by the major leagues; the minors may offer suggestions, but the voting power rests entirely with the major leagues.
“This board is to have complete control not only over the relations that exist between minors and majors, but over their internal affairs as well. In other words, we are expected to subscribe to a government in whose election we have no voice and to which we must submit for twenty-five years, no matter how unfair it may become. It is necessary only to point out this error in the plan to show why it cannot be accepted by the minor leagues’
New York Tribune

Meanwhile, American League president Ban Johnson will meet with representatives of the five AL clubs that have not joined the Lasker Plan tomorrow.

October 28, 2020

Bullpen Management

The Associated Press puts Kevin Cash‘s lifting of Blake Snell with the worst managerial pitching decisions in post-season history. I thought Snell should have pitched to Mookie Betts, since he dominated him in the first two plate appearances, and there’s no way he should have been tired.

Always remember, sometimes you make the decision that should lead to the best outcome, but the outcome is never guaranteed.

Also, the story leaves out an error of omission, Dusty Baker not having a reliever ready when Mark Prior got in trouble against the Marlins in game six of the 2003 NLCS.

Update: Here’s video of Cash talking about the decision.

Rays Manager Kevin Cash joined @Ken_Rosenthal after Game 6 and explained his decision to pull Blake Snell in the 6th inning. pic.twitter.com/wGHg7DQjA4
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 28, 2020

October 28, 2020

Turner Positive

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Justin Turner left game six of the World Series without explanation at the time. After the game, we learned he tested positive for COVID-19:

Sources told ESPN’s Jeff Passan that, in the second inning, the lab doing COVID-19 tests informed MLB that Turner’s test from Monday came back inconclusive. Samples taken from Tuesday then arrived and were run, sources said, and they showed up positive. The league immediately called the Dodgers and said to pull Turner.
ESPN.com

The Dodgers winning prevented a postponement of game seven. I suspect that the league might have considered the option of suspending game six when they heard about the positive test. Turner is asymptomatic, so we’ll see how this plays out. I also wonder if the teams will need to stay in the bubble for a couple of weeks until this infection plays out.

I’m also interested in how Turner caught the virus. My dad was in a nursing home when the pandemic hit, and the director closed the home to visitors fairly early. They kept the virus out of the home for seven weeks, but somehow it got in. MLB had gone nearly eight weeks without an infection, but this virus is insidious. MLB got the season in by the skin of their teeth.

October 28, 2020

Seager MVP

Corey Seager takes home the World Series MVP Award:

“This was just awesome,” Seager said after receiving the Willie Mays MVP trophy. “What this team’s accomplished this year … the resilience, the effort, the energy—everything that this team’s done this season, it’s just fun to be a part of.”
SI.com

Seager led all 2020 World Series players with a .400 BA and a .500 OBP, and added a .700 slugging percentage for good measure. (Minimum 15 PA). Seager had the game winning RBI in game six as well.

Note the poor OBPs of the five Rays at the bottom of the list. The bottom of the Rays order gave the Dodgers pitchers fairly easy outs.

October 28, 2020

Wednesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

October 27, 2020

Dodgers World Champions

The Dodgers beat the Rays 3-1 in game six of the 2020 World Series to win the World Series. The Dodgers last won a series in 1988. They had some great teams in the intervening years, but they finally put all the pieces together to dominate in the regular season, then show great resilience in the post-season.

The Dodgers bullpen game worked tonight. They struck out sixteen Rays batters, walking just two and allowing just five hits. Not surprisingly, the Rays only run came on a home run.

Dodgers hitters struck out eleven times with five hits and two walks, but they bunched hits better, and Mookie Betts‘s speed and power made the difference, scoring from third on a grounder with the infield in, then hitting a home run for an insurance run.

Congratulations to the Dodgers on an impressive season and a well deserved World Championship!

October 27, 2020

Rays in the Ninth

The Rays come up in the top of the ninth inning with Manuel Margot, Joey Wendle, and Willy Adames set to face Julio Urias. Urias already owns two strikeouts in 1 1/3 perfect innings pitched in the game. With a 3-1 lead, the Dodgers are an inning away from a World Championship.

Update: Margot falls behind 1-2. He flies out to right on the next pitch. One down.

Update: Mike Brosseau pinch hits. He falls behind 1-2. He works the count to 3-2, then looks at a pitch on the inside edge of the plate for strike three. Two down.

Update: Adames falls behind 0-2. He takes the next pitch on the inside edge of the plate for strike three, and the Dodgers win the World Series!

October 27, 2020

Rays Ks

The Rays go down 1-2-3 in the top of the eighth inning, preserving the Dodgers 2-1 lead. Tampa Bay batters have now struck out 14 times in this game, one reason they only collected five hits. The Dodgers are now three outs away from a World Championship.

Update: Mookie Betts adds a solo home run in the bottom of the eight for an insurance run, and the Dodgers lead 3-1.

October 27, 2020

Dodgers Threaten

Blake Snell gives up his second hit with one out in the bottom of the sixth inning, and he is out of the game. Nick Anderson comes in and gives up a double to Mookie Betts, who struck out twice against Snell, to put runners on second and third. The Rays 1-0 lead is in jeopardy.

And it didn’t take long to disappear as a wild pitch ties the game and a grounder to first and a failed fielder’s choice gives the Dodgers a 2-1.

Update: It was nice to hear a real crowd go wild.

Update: Justin Turner hits a ball to the warning track for the second out.

Update: Aaron Loup comes in to pitch to Max Muncy. Muncy hits a 3-2 pitch to second for the third out.

Kevin Cash is going to have a tough time answering for lifting Snell.

October 27, 2020

Snell Rolling

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Blake Snell retires the Dodgers in the fourth inning 1-2-3, all three batters going down on strikes. Snell through four innings struck out nine, including the top three hitters in the Dodgers lineup twice each. He’s allowed just one hit as the Rays continue to lead 1-0.

October 27, 2020

Gonsolin Done

Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin gets pulled from the game after recording just five outs. He allowed three hits and two walks, and leaves with two on and Randy Arozarena coming to the plate. Arozarena homered off Gonsolin in the first inning as the Rays lead the Dodgers 1-0.

Update: Dylan Floro comes in to pitch. He strikes out Arozarena on three pitches to end the inning.

October 27, 2020

K Snell

Blake Snell strikes out Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, and Justin Turner in the first inning, all on swinging strikes. It was a perfect shutdown inning as the Rays scored in the top of the first and lead the Dodgers 1-0.

October 27, 2020

Rename Globe Life Aroz Arena

Randy Arozarena keeps adding to his post-season records as he hits a one-out, solo home run the opposite way in the top of the first inning of game six of the 2020 World Series. That is Arozarena’s tenth home run of the post-season and his third against the Dodgers. The Rays take an early 1-0 lead over the Dodgers in a must-win game for Tampa Bay.

Update: A single by Austin Meadows and a walk by Brandon Lowe puts Rays on first and second with one out. Tony Gonsolin continues to pitch poorly in the playoffs.

Update: Gonsolin comes back to strike out Joey Wendle to end the inning. The Dodgers come up trailing the Rays 1-0.

October 27, 2020

How to Hook

Bill James reports on an interesting but failed study on the probability of winning with a slow hook or fast hook of a starting pitcher. I suspect we are more likely to see fast hooks tonight in game six of the World Series.

October 27, 2020

Playoffs Today

The Dodgers resume home team status for game six of the 2020 World Series. A Los Angeles win over Tampa Bay brings the Dodgers their first championship since 1988. Blake Snell takes the mound for the Rays against Tony Gonsolin.

Snell make his ninth playoff appearance and seventh start. He pitched decently in seven of his eight appearances, his start against the Yankees in the 2020 ALDS his only poor outing. He gave up six home runs in 29 2/3 innings in the post season, and three of those came against the Yankees. While his 3.03 ERA is good, he does not go deep in games. His 5 2/3 innings against Toronto in the Wild Card round was his high point, and he was removed having allowed no runs, one hit, and two walks.

Gonsolin may give the Rays their best chance at avoiding elimination. In his first post-season Gonsolin, allowed eight runs, all earned, in 7 2/3 innings. He did strike out nine batters, but spoiled that great number with seven walks and three home runs allowed. The Dodgers have a game in hand, however, so they may decide to allow Gonsolin to pitch a few innings even if he gets in trouble early to save the bullpen for game seven.

Enjoy!

October 27, 2020

This Date in 1920

On October 27, 1920, the Dodgers sign manager Wilbert Robinson to a three-year contract:

In 1916 Robinson won a National League pennant for Brooklyn with a club that was made up of discards from many clubs. This year he repeated the performance. It was thought that the first victory might have been an accident, but when re repeated this year club owners started to sit up and take notice. They realized how much of the Brooklyn team’s success was due to the managerial wizardry of Robinson.
New York Tribune

Robinson would manage the Dodgers for eleven more seasons, but in seven of those the team finished sixth or worse. His only other good season would be in 1924, when the team went 92-62 for a second place finish.

October 26, 2020

Wilpon Says Goodbye

It looks like the current Mets ownership is really on the way out:

On Monday afternoon, a team source confirmed, the Mets held an organization-wide Zoom call to award employees who had reached milestones for service. At the conclusion of the call, COO Jeff Wilpon thanked all of the employees and bid them farewell, a strong sign that a change in ownership is imminent.
NYPost.com

The Wilpon family had some success with the Mets. We’ll see if the new owner can build a more consistent winner.