Tag Archives: Jeff McNeil

July 30, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Santana’s batting average accounts for a high percentage of his offensive value. This season, with a high batting average and few walks, he is a good candidate to extend a hit streak.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.316, 0.757 — Jeff McNeil batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
  • 0.323, 0.740 — Daniel Santana batting against Mike Leake.
  • 0.313, 0.738 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Taylor Clarke.
  • 0.303, 0.727 — Melky Cabrera batting against Tanner Roark.
  • 0.313, 0.722 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Michael Montgomery.
  • 0.265, 0.717 — Michael Brantley batting against Shane Bieber.
  • 0.287, 0.714 — Corey Dickerson batting against Tanner Roark.
  • 0.296, 0.714 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Tanner Roark.
  • 0.295, 0.712 — Kevin Newman batting against Tanner Roark.
  • 0.287, 0.712 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Tom Eshelman.

It should be a good night for the Pirates, but the Log5 method thought that about the Angels yesterday against Jordan Zimmermann. McNeil and Santana tie for the consensus first pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 28, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Ervin does not pop up on this list much. In parts of three seasons with the Reds he owns a .279/.348/.458 slash line. Most of that is based on a hot 2019, his seasonal age 26 season. Lambert is a Rockies rookie with a .321 BABIP against him.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.305, 0.754 — Jeff McNeil batting against Chris Archer.
  • 0.296, 0.730 — Michael Brantley batting against Dakota Hudson.
  • 0.298, 0.724 — Christian Yelich batting against Jose Quintana.
  • 0.284, 0.723 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Alex Wood.
  • 0.300, 0.720 — Javier Baez batting against Zach Davies.
  • 0.299, 0.717 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Madison Bumgarner.
  • 0.286, 0.716 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Dakota Hudson.
  • 0.292, 0.715 — Jean Segura batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.279, 0.711 — Jose Altuve batting against Dakota Hudson.
  • 0.304, 0.708 — Jose Iglesias batting against Peter Lambert.

McNeil comes out on top again. He is dominating the leader board now, and one reason might be his low K rate. He will likely strike out less than 100 times this season. His career BABIP is .366, which means putting the ball in play for him is a very good thing. There is not a clear consensus second choice today.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 27, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Rookie Luis Arraez owns a .374/.450/.481 slash line for the Twins in 151 plate appearance. His current season hit average is no longer being regressed much, and given Nova’s poor 2019, the expected hit average for this season should be rather high.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.331, 0.766 — Jeff McNeil batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.323, 0.749 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
  • 0.327, 0.737 — Eddie Rosario batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.335, 0.734 — Luis Arraez batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.315, 0.734 — Christian Yelich batting against Jon Lester.
  • 0.325, 0.731 — Jorge Polanco batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.314, 0.730 — Melky Cabrera batting against Steven Matz.
  • 0.301, 0.725 — Daniel Murphy batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
  • 0.305, 0.725 — Daniel Santana batting against Homer Bailey.
  • 0.283, 0.723 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.

The NN knocks Arraez down a bit. The one year regression (to 200 PA) knocks his hit average down to .301 from his actual .325. The three year regression (to 600 PA), knocks his hit average down to .253. In comparison, McNeil comes in at .309/.306. We simply have more information about McNeil, but enough about Arraez to start ranking him high. McNeil is the consensus first pick, Arraez the consensus second pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 27, 2019

Best Batter Today

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Friday’s games shook things up a bit in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. The top three remain the same, with Christian Yelich at the top of the list after extending his hit streak to fourteen games with a single. Mike Trout is right on Yelich’s heels as Trout picked up a double on the evening. Ketel Marte singled and walked for third place.

For the first time in a while, however, Cody Bellinger drops out of the top five. He singled in four trips against Washington, but drops to sixth place. Xander Bogaerts, who made an appearance in the top five yesterday, drops to eighth place despite a double against the Yankees. A Jeff McNeil home runs lifts him to fourth place, and two singles and a walk move Kris Bryant to fifth place. Positions three through eleven are separated by ten points, so expect more of this churn.

Note that Mookie Betts, with his three home runs and a double moved up from 23rd place to ninth place, just behind Bogaerts. The Red Sox now have those two and Rafael Devers in the top eleven.

July 26, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

It seems the inclusion of two Mariners catchers on the list has more to do with Norris’s low K rate, low walk rate, and high BABIP.

Here are the neural network picks:

For the second day in a row, McNeil and LeMahieu are the top two picks. Yesterday did not work out so well for them, however.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 25, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

It looks like a good day to be in the Pirates lineup. The New York infielders continue pop at the top of the list.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.330, 0.771 — Jeff McNeil batting against Eric Lauer.
  • 0.321, 0.747 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Rick Porcello.
  • 0.316, 0.744 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jeff Hoffman.
  • 0.314, 0.733 — Melky Cabrera batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.305, 0.725 — Anthony Rendon batting against Jeff Hoffman.
  • 0.301, 0.724 — Corey Dickerson batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.311, 0.724 — Kevin Newman batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.310, 0.723 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.289, 0.720 — Whit Merrifield batting against Adam Plutko.
  • 0.300, 0.713 — Colin Moran batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.290, 0.713 — Daniel Santana batting against Brett Anderson.

The two systems agree on McNeil and LeMahieu as the top two choices. McNeil gets a very high probability of a hit, as Lauer owns a hit average allowed well above the league average.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 24, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Howie Kendrick makes the list twice as the Rockies and Nationals play a double header today. Once again, make sure Kendrick plays in the game before you make the pick. Segura is 9 for 19 career against Zimmermann with one walk and three strikeouts. That is the highest BA against Zimmermann among players who faced him at least 19 times.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.294, 0.748 — Jeff McNeil batting against Dinelson Lamet.
  • 0.319, 0.744 — Howie Kendrick batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.307, 0.741 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jonathan Gray.
  • 0.294, 0.733 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Erick Fedde.
  • 0.318, 0.729 — Jean Segura batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
  • 0.311, 0.724 — Daniel Santana batting against Mike Leake.
  • 0.295, 0.724 — Melky Cabrera batting against Adam Wainwright.
  • 0.279, 0.723 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.303, 0.720 — Anthony Rendon batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.307, 0.720 — Hanser Alberto batting against Taylor Clarke.

McNeil comes out on top once again. Kendrick against Freeland is the consensus first pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 21, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

For a while this season, German Marquez was on rotation with Domingo German, but that match-up did not happen. The Log5 method predicts a good day for the Pirates hitters.

Alex Dickerson owns a .403 BA since joining the Giants from the Padres, and a .352 BA overall this season in about 100 PA. He is in his age 28 season, so I would not expect this to last, but right now he’s hitting well enough to make the top ten against Matz, who is getting hit this season.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.311, 0.763 — Jeff McNeil batting against Connor Menez .
  • 0.327, 0.747 — DJ LeMahieu batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.319, 0.746 — Howie Kendrick batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.297, 0.732 — Michael Brantley batting against Lance Lynn.
  • 0.305, 0.725 — Anthony Rendon batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.304, 0.724 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Drew Smyly.
  • 0.299, 0.722 — Melky Cabrera batting against Drew Smyly.
  • 0.304, 0.722 — Kevin Newman batting against Drew Smyly.
  • 0.290, 0.721 — Charlie Blackmon batting against James Paxton.
  • 0.297, 0.717 — Freddie Freeman batting against Joe Ross.

Menez makes his major league debut, so the system sees him as a league average pitcher. McNeil hits league average pitchers well. Menez is a high K, high walk pitcher, so he may not be the best opponent to extend a hit streak. DJ LeMahieu is the consensus first pick, McNeil the consensus second pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 21, 2019

Best Batter Today

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Christian Yelich stays opened up an eight-point lead in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings on Saturday. He went three for five with two doubles, while second place Mike Trout homered and walked in five trips against the Mariners. Cody Bellinger channeled his inner Dawn and walked three times, while Jeff McNeill singled and homered in a Mets rout of the Giants.

Anthony Rizzo replace Kris Bryant in the top five. Rizzo went two for four with a double, while Bryant singled and walked.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT5ms2Nvpco
July 20, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

The list goes to eleven today to show the Gurriel brothers both hitting well.

Log5 credits the LeMahieu match-up against Senzatela with a very high hit average. Note, however, that Senzatela’s batting averages shows a nearly 30 point difference home and road for his career, so that number might be a bit generous.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.312, 0.763 — Jeff McNeil batting against Jeff Samardzija.
  • 0.330, 0.748 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.317, 0.744 — Michael Brantley batting against Ariel Jurado.
  • 0.309, 0.732 — Whit Merrifield batting against Adam Plutko.
  • 0.306, 0.729 — Melky Cabrera batting against Zach Eflin.
  • 0.310, 0.729 — Kevin Newman batting against Zach Eflin.
  • 0.308, 0.727 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Zach Eflin.
  • 0.273, 0.722 — Howie Kendrick batting against Michael Soroka.
  • 0.299, 0.721 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Ariel Jurado.
  • 0.310, 0.720 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Daniel Norris.
  • 0.283, 0.720 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
  • 0.307, 0.720 — Daniel Santana batting against Jose Urquidy.

The NN does take into account the hit average of the park. Right now, Yankee Stadium’s three-year hit average is at .222, a few points below the league average of .229. That helps moderate the high hit average the Log5 method produces. McNeil came out on top of the NN in 14 of the last 18 days of games. He collected a hit in 12 of those games, with today’s contest pending. He and LeMahieu are tied for the consensus first pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 20, 2019

Best Batter Today

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Christian Yelich singled, homered, and walked twice Friday night to jump back into the top slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He passes Mike Trout who went 0 for 4 in Mike Leake‘s near perfect game. Cody Bellinger singled and walked to remain in third place.

There is a very tight grouping right behind Bellinger. In order, Kris Bryant, Jeff McNeil, Anthony Rizzo, and Ketel Marte are separated by 0.7 points. Rizzo and Marte both had good days on Friday to close the gap, with Bryant and McNeil each reached base once to hold off the contenders. Once again, expect some churn in this area of the standings.

July 19, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

It looks like a good day to be playing for the Pirates or the Angels. Arrieta allows a .280 BA this season, Leake is at .284.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.301, 0.757 — Jeff McNeil batting against Tyler Beede.
  • 0.322, 0.741 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.319, 0.732 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Leake.
  • 0.312, 0.729 — Kevin Newman batting against Jake Arrieta.
  • 0.320, 0.727 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
  • 0.305, 0.726 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jake Arrieta.
  • 0.294, 0.726 — Charlie Blackmon batting against J.A. Happ.
  • 0.308, 0.724 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Jake Arrieta.
  • 0.310, 0.720 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Mike Leake.
  • 0.309, 0.719 — David Fletcher batting against Mike Leake.

The two systems have a different view of Jeff McNeil, tenth in the Log5, first in NN. Otherwise, there is a ton of agreement between the two systems. LeMahieu is the consensus first pick as he faces Colorado, his previous team. Simmons is the consensus second choice.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 18, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

The Yankees have not officially announced a second starter for the double header, but one source had Green in the slot. Meadows seems like a good pick no matter who is pitching. Bumgarner’s OBP allowed is a good .306, but his BA allowed in .262. Someone like McNeil against him is a good bet for a hit.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.337, 0.773 — Jeff McNeil batting against Madison Bumgarner.
  • 0.307, 0.741 — Michael Brantley batting against Matt Harvey.
  • 0.312, 0.736 — Whit Merrifield batting against Ross Detwiler.
  • 0.292, 0.720 — Christian Yelich batting against Merrill Kelly.
  • 0.288, 0.715 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Matt Harvey.
  • 0.282, 0.713 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Harvey.
  • 0.296, 0.711 — Ketel Marte batting against Zach Davies.
  • 0.250, 0.710 — Howie Kendrick batting against Julio Teheran.
  • 0.258, 0.708 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Yonny Chirinos.
  • 0.271, 0.702 — Rafael Devers batting against Thomas Pannone.

Once again, McNeil posts a very high probability of a hit. Brantley and Merrifield are tied for the consensus second choice. Merrifield’s hit streak stands at 15 games.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 18, 2019

Best Batter Today

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Mike Trout sits out another game and stays atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. A penalty starts to kick in after a few days off, because if you’re not playing, it’s tough to be the best batter. The Angels may have misdiagnosed the severity of the injury, and continue to play a man short. Putting Trout on the ten day illjured list might have worked better.

Christian Yelich gained on Trout with his 34th home run run of the season, and is just three points out of first place. Cody Bellinger drew a walk in five trips to hold third place.

Kris Bryant singled, homered, and walked to jump into fourth place. Bryant is on quite a tear, batting .377/.479/.738 in his last 16 games.

Jeff McNeil went one for five to lower his BA to .345 and hold a place in the top five.

July 17, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

There are a few names new to the list as Nova, Anderson, and Pivetta all allow fairly high batting averages with fairly low walk rates. Merrifield owns the longest current hit streak at fourteen games.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.323, 0.772 — Jeff McNeil batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.349, 0.757 — Whit Merrifield batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.316, 0.744 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Shaun Anderson.
  • 0.286, 0.735 — Howie Kendrick batting against Aaron Brooks.
  • 0.298, 0.726 — Daniel Murphy batting against Shaun Anderson.
  • 0.299, 0.723 — Nolan Arenado batting against Shaun Anderson.
  • 0.300, 0.723 — David Dahl batting against Shaun Anderson.
  • 0.310, 0.718 — Alex Verdugo batting against Nick Pivetta.
  • 0.288, 0.716 — Christian Yelich batting against Dallas Keuchel.
  • 0.311, 0.716 — Cody Bellinger batting against Nick Pivetta.

Once again, McNeil tops the list with a very high probability of a hit. He is tied with Merrifield for the consensus first choice.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 17, 2019

Best Batter Today

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Mike Trout sat out another game with a calf strain, but stays atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Christian Yelich moves back into second place by homering and walking twice, while Cody Bellinger takes third with a one for four night. Jeff McNeil singled to stay in fourth place, while Matt Chapman moves into fifth place as he misses the cycle by a triple against the Mariners.

Chapman’s overall slash line doesn’t look that impressive given some of the gaudy statistics players are posting this season, but the rankings give him credit for playing in a tough park for batters. He is on fire in July, however, with a .371/.436/.571 line, and that pushed him up to the top five.

July 16, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Blackmon plays at home tonight where he hits .426/.480/.877 this year. On the road he bats .227/.261/.369.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.332, 0.773 — Jeff McNeil batting against Michael Pineda.
  • 0.336, 0.756 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Drew Pomeranz.
  • 0.297, 0.742 — Howie Kendrick batting against Asher Wojciechowski.
  • 0.316, 0.737 — Daniel Murphy batting against Drew Pomeranz.
  • 0.319, 0.735 — David Dahl batting against Drew Pomeranz.
  • 0.318, 0.734 — Nolan Arenado batting against Drew Pomeranz.
  • 0.306, 0.724 — Javier Baez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
  • 0.304, 0.719 — Jorge Polanco batting against Steven Matz.
  • 0.270, 0.717 — Michael Brantley batting against Andrew Heaney.
  • 0.287, 0.717 — Christian Yelich batting against Bryse Wilson.

McNeil versus Pineda produces one of the highest probabilities I’ve seen this season. Batters hit a solid .261 against Pineda with a .296 OBP. He gives up lots of hits and very few walks. The two are a good combination for extending a streak. Blackmon is tied with McNeil for the consensus first pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 16, 2019

Best Batter Today

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Monday produced one big position shift in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Mike Trout sat out the Angles game and remains in first place. Cody Bellinger, however, produced four hits in the Dodgers 16-2 rout of the Phillies, two of those hits home runs. He passes Christian Yelich both in the home run race and in the rankings. Yelich singled twice in four trips Monday night. Bellinger leads Yelich by 0.8 points. Jeff McNeil stayed in fourth place as the Mets did not play, and Ketel Marte held fifth as he had a night off as well.

Bellinger and Yelich are now two-three in batting average respectively, one-two in home runs, and two-six in RBI. With Josh Bell and the Pirates offense cooling down, Bellinger has a shot at a triple crown this season. We also may see a very close MVP vote. Could another tie be in the offing?

July 15, 2019

Best Batter Today

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Mike Trout stays atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after leaving Sunday’s game with a tight calf muscle, giving him an 0 for 1. In developing the system, I added a penalty for a low number of plate appearances by a starter, three or fewer. So players who bat low in the order tend to get the penalty, as do batters who will be removed for a pinch hitter. Sometimes, a good hitter gets the penalty, but one game here or there doesn’t make that much difference. Sunday, however, Christian Yelich homered, so the penalty to Trout helped close the gap between the two to about seven points.

Jeff McNeil moved into third place as he homered for the Mets, while Cody Bellinger slipped to fourth after a two walk performance in six PA. Ketel Marte held fifth place by drawing three walks in five PA for the Diamondbacks.

July 14, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Merrifield is 6 for 15 career against Zimmermann with just two strikeouts and two walks. In other words, Merrifield successfully puts the ball in play against Zimmermann.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.309, 0.759 — Jeff McNeil batting against Sandy Alcantara.
  • 0.322, 0.750 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jake Arrieta.
  • 0.313, 0.748 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Tyler Mahle.
  • 0.330, 0.745 — Whit Merrifield batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
  • 0.316, 0.744 — Michael Brantley batting against Ariel Jurado.
  • 0.300, 0.732 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Marcus Stroman.
  • 0.292, 0.726 — Daniel Murphy batting against Tyler Mahle.
  • 0.296, 0.726 — David Dahl batting against Tyler Mahle.
  • 0.294, 0.723 — Nolan Arenado batting against Tyler Mahle.
  • 0.301, 0.719 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.295, 0.719 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jose Quintana.

Note that the NN, which takes into account the park, tends to pick Rockies batters today. Jeff McNeil ranks much higher than Merrifield in this calculation, however. Kendrick is the consensus first choice, while Merrifield is the consensus second choice.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 14, 2019

Best Batter Today

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Mike Trout homered Saturday night to stay atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Trout now holds a 16 point lead over Christian Yelich, who singled in five trips on Saturday. Cody Bellinger gained some ground with a single and home run against Boston, and is now tied with Bellinger for the NL home run lead with 31. Yelich has not homered for a while, and his chance of hitting 62 homers is dwindling quickly. Jeff McNeil singled and doubled against the Marlins to stay in fourth place, but Pete Alonso‘s single and walk was not enough to keep him in the top five as Ketel Marte singled and doubled against the Cardinals to move into fifth place.

July 13, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

The Rays and Orioles are playing a double header today, so if you are planning to pick a player from one of those games, keep you eye on the starting lineups. Log5 likes the Yankees against Richard and the Pirates against Lester.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.312, 0.761 — Jeff McNeil batting against Zac Gallen.
  • 0.332, 0.750 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Clayton Richard.
  • 0.300, 0.739 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Tanner Roark.
  • 0.313, 0.731 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jon Lester.
  • 0.279, 0.726 — Howie Kendrick batting against Aaron Nola.
  • 0.299, 0.721 — Christian Yelich batting against Madison Bumgarner.
  • 0.308, 0.719 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Jon Lester.
  • 0.307, 0.717 — Kevin Newman batting against Jon Lester.
  • 0.283, 0.717 — David Dahl batting against Tanner Roark.
  • 0.292, 0.716 — Javier Baez batting against Jordan Lyles.

McNeil pops to the top of this list. LeMahieu is the consensus first choice however.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 13, 2019

Best Batter Today

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Mike Trout‘s big night puts him well ahead of everyone else in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He now holds about a 13 point lead over Christian Yelich. Yelich went two for five with a triple in the Brewers loss to the Giants. Cody Bellinger singled and walked to remain third. The Mets duo of Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil rank fourth and fifth respectively, separated by just 0.06 points. Alonso drew a walk and McNeil singled on Friday as the Mets fell to the Marlins 8-4. Ten points separate four through thirteen.

July 12, 2019

Best Batter Today

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With the stretch run of the season starting in earnest today, the single game on Thursday did not produce a change in the standings of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Mike Trout sits in first place, about 4 1/2 points ahead of Christian Yelich, who is about seven points ahead of Cody Bellinger. Two Mets, Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil hold the four and five slots respectively. It’s a bit sad that the Mets lineup boasts two of the best young hitters in the game, yet ranks tenth in the NL in runs per game.

July 7, 2019

Best Batter At the Break

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Mike Trout hit two home runs Sunday to move past an idle Christian Yelich for first place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Yelich, leading the majors in home runs, pulled out of Monday’s home run derby with a bad back. Cody Bellinger took an 0 for 4 on Sunday, but stayed in third place. Pete Alonso makes his first appearance in the top five after homering, passing his teammate Jeff McNeil who takes fifth place after an 0 for 5 day.

The Mets are amazing, having two such high quality players and still standing ten games under .500.

July 7, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

The Log5 method likes the Cubs against Ivan Nova. Nova has brought his hits allowed somewhat more under control lately, however. He does give Baez problems, as the Cubs star is just 4 for 21 against Nova with seven K.

Here are the neural network picks:

The red hot Jeff McNeil once again tops the NN list. In his brief career, McNeil is already 5 for 13 against Nola. Baez is the consensus first pick, with McNeil tied with Kendrick for consensus second pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 7, 2019

Best Batter Today

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The batters in the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings did not change due to Saturday’s games, but they did rearrange themselves. Christian Yelich went two for two with a walk to reclaim the top spot from Mike Trout, who singled and walked. The two are separated by 0.05 points. Cody Bellinger took a ball to the body to hold third place. Jeff McNeil picked up four singles to move ahead of Josh Bell into fourth place, Bell drawing a walk in five trips.

McNeil is now batting .356, with a fifteen point lead over Cody Bellinger in the batting race.

July 6, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

McNeil keeps coming to the top of these lists. One thing in favor of the match-up today is Arrieta gives up a high BA to left-handed batters this season.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.330, 0.766 — Jeff McNeil batting against Jake Arrieta.
  • 0.323, 0.751 — Howie Kendrick batting against Glenn Sparkman.
  • 0.309, 0.730 — Rafael Devers batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
  • 0.318, 0.729 — Hanser Alberto batting against Clayton Richard.
  • 0.298, 0.726 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
  • 0.307, 0.723 — Leury Garcia batting against Jon Lester.
  • 0.289, 0.721 — Melky Cabrera batting against Adrian Houser.
  • 0.299, 0.721 — Elvis Andrus batting against Michael Pineda.
  • 0.269, 0.717 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Robbie Ray.
  • 0.297, 0.714 — Anthony Rendon batting against Glenn Sparkman.
  • 0.269, 0.714 — Michael Brantley batting against Andrew Heaney.

The two systems are in very good agreement today, with McNeil and Kendrick one and two on both.

McNeil may wind up in first place for a while. His two hit average paramenters are at .315 for 2019 and .303 for the weighted three-year value. He is fast approaching 600 PA for the long-term measure, so that number is no longer being regressed to the mean very much. A .300 hit average is rare. I usually see that on a short-term basis, with long term numbers high in the .290s. As an example, Blackmon is .309 this season, but .284 on his long-term rate, and Blackmon is great at producing hits. The Mets appear to have found someone special in McNeil.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 6, 2019

Best Batter Today

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Mike Trout homered and walked Friday night to squeeze by into the top slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Cody Bellinger trails by about 1.5 points as he singled and walked in the Dodgers loss to the Padres. Christian Yelich and Josh Bell, third and fourth respectively in the standings, went head-to-head in the 7-6 Brewers extra-inning win over the Pirates. Yelich walked three times in six trips to the plate, while Bell singled and homered in five trips. Bell now owns sixty extra-base hits on the season. Jeff McNeil singled to take the fifth slot.

July 5, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Rookies like Luis Arraez usually don’t make the top ten, but he is off to a fantastic start. In 81 PA he owns a .414 BA and a .481 OBP. That’s good enough that even the heavy regression applied to his hit averages show him doing well. Facing Sampson helps, as he owns low K and BB rates with a high BABIP.

Here are the neural network picks:

0.319, 0.762 — Jeff McNeil batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.322, 0.741 — Melky Cabrera batting against Zach Davies.
0.291, 0.733 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zack Greinke.
0.317, 0.728 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Zach Davies.
0.310, 0.724 — Jose Martinez batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.281, 0.723 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brendan McKay.
0.276, 0.723 — Howie Kendrick batting against Brad Keller.
0.309, 0.722 — Jorge Polanco batting against Adrian Sampson.
0.303, 0.722 — Rafael Devers batting against Gregory Soto.
0.310, 0.718 — Kevin Newman batting against Zach Davies.
0.290, 0.718 — J.D. Martinez batting against Gregory Soto.
0.284, 0.718 — Whit Merrifield batting against Austin Voth.

McNeil and Melky Cabrera are tied for the consensus first pick, but McNeil’s .762 probability of getting a hit is much higher than Cabrera. The NN knocks Arraez down quite a bit, giving him a .703 probability of a hit.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!