For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.322 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Kyle Freeland.
• 0.320 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.319 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.312 — Kevin Newman batting against Jake Arrieta.
• 0.310 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.309 — David Fletcher batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.308 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Jake Arrieta.
• 0.305 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jake Arrieta.
• 0.302 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Jon Lester.
• 0.301 — Jeff McNeil batting against Tyler Beede.

It looks like a good day to be playing for the Pirates or the Angels. Arrieta allows a .280 BA this season, Leake is at .284.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.301, 0.757 — Jeff McNeil batting against Tyler Beede.
• 0.322, 0.741 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Kyle Freeland.
• 0.319, 0.732 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.312, 0.729 — Kevin Newman batting against Jake Arrieta.
• 0.320, 0.727 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
• 0.305, 0.726 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jake Arrieta.
• 0.294, 0.726 — Charlie Blackmon batting against J.A. Happ.
• 0.308, 0.724 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Jake Arrieta.
• 0.310, 0.720 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.309, 0.719 — David Fletcher batting against Mike Leake.

The two systems have a different view of Jeff McNeil, tenth in the Log5, first in NN. Otherwise, there is a ton of agreement between the two systems. LeMahieu is the consensus first pick as he faces Colorado, his previous team. Simmons is the consensus second choice.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!