For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.338 — Javier Baez batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.311 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jakob Junis.
• 0.310 — Kris Bryant batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.307 — Jeff McNeil batting against Aaron Nola.
• 0.305 — Albert Almora batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.303 — Rafael Devers batting against Gregory Soto.
• 0.302 — Willson Contreras batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.300 — Victor Caratini batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.295 — Jason Heyward batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.294 — Ketel Marte batting against German Marquez.

The Log5 method likes the Cubs against Ivan Nova. Nova has brought his hits allowed somewhat more under control lately, however. He does give Baez problems, as the Cubs star is just 4 for 21 against Nova with seven K.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.307, 0.758 — Jeff McNeil batting against Aaron Nola.
• 0.311, 0.744 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jakob Junis.
• 0.338, 0.743 — Javier Baez batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.286, 0.729 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Alex Young.
• 0.286, 0.722 — Michael Brantley batting against Jose Suarez.
• 0.303, 0.720 — Rafael Devers batting against Gregory Soto.
• 0.292, 0.718 — J.D. Martinez batting against Gregory Soto.
• 0.289, 0.718 — Christian Yelich batting against Joe Musgrove.
• 0.279, 0.715 — Melky Cabrera batting against Chase Anderson.
• 0.290, 0.708 — Hanser Alberto batting against Trent Thornton.

The red hot Jeff McNeil once again tops the NN list. In his brief career, McNeil is already 5 for 13 against Nola. Baez is the consensus first pick, with McNeil tied with Kendrick for consensus second pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!