The AL Central should be the Tigers to win, but Cleveland is hanging close.
Detroit Tigers, 52-42, 1st place.
Strengths: On the offensive side, the Tigers are a great hitting team. They collected the most hits in the league despite playing fewer games than most teams. On the pitching side, Tigers hurlers own the highest strikeout and lowest home run rate in the league. That’s a deadly combination for opposing hitters. On both sides of the ball, the team has good walk rates, so the batters do a great job getting on base, and the pitchers do a great job preventing base runners.
Weaknesses: The defense is poor. That’s somewhat covered up by the strikeouts, but lots of balls get through for hits. For some reason, their errors lead to lots of unearned runs as well. Combine that with a poor bullpen, and the starting staff is sometimes not supported as well as it should be.
Outlook: The team is good enough to withstand their weaknesses. They have excellent table setters, an intimidating heart of the order, and a devastating starting staff. They don’t need any good luck to win the division.
Cleveland Indians, 51-44, 2nd place.
Strengths: The Indians rank fourth in the AL in runs per game due to a very good OBP and a lot of doubles. Like the Red Sox, the Indians are both prolific base stealers and high percentage base stealers. Their pitchers as a whole strike out a ton of batters.
Weaknesses: The Indians allow the most walks in the league, and with a league average home run rate, they have two weak legs to the three-true outcome stool. The walks would hurt less if the team was good at removing base runners, but their double plays and caught stealing numbers are nothing special.
Outlook: The Indians are 18-9 in one-run games, which accounts for their winning record. I would suspect their record in those games to be closer to .500 in the second half, so that may take away the juice they need to catch Detroit.
Kansas City Royals, 43-49, 3rd place.
Strengths: Defense. The Royals defense saved the most runs in the AL this year according to UZR. Not surprisingly, the Royals ERA is lower than their FIP. In this case, their low strikeout rate is okay, because opponents putting the ball in play tend to lead to good outcomes for the Royals.
Weaknesses: Royals hitters walk too infrequently and Royals pitchers walk a bit too many. On the offensive side, the lack of walks fails to compensate for a low batting average, and on the defensive side, it puts pressure on the by taking them out of position to hold runners or play for double plays. The Royals also hit the fewest home runs in the league, 26 fewer than the next closest team.
Outlook: The Royals ended the pre-break season with five straight losses. I would have thought the jettisoning of Jeff Francoeur would have improved the team. With their defense, and with some improvement from their young hitters, .500 is a real possibility for the Royals.
Minnesota Twins, 39-53, 4th place.
Strengths: It’s tough to find something good on the Twins. They have Joe Mauer at catcher, and they don’t hit into many double plays.
Weaknesses: The defense is poor, and due to the low walk, low strikeout pitching staff, lots of balls get through for hits. That helped them to the highest BA allowed in the league.
Outlook: This team needs to be reworked. One thing the Twins learned this year is that Justin Morneau can no longer hit like a first baseman. He wants a contract extension, but that would be folly at this point.
I highly doubt Minnesota makes the playoffs this season.
Chicago White Sox, 37-55, 5th place.
Strengths: White Sox pitchers strike out a ton of batters, especially the relievers.
Weaknesses: A team with Adam Dunn is last in the league in drawing walks. They’ve also been hit the fewest times, and while they don’t have the lowest batting average in the AL, .249 is not great.
Outlook: Gordon Beckham came into his own. We’ll see if the team builds around him and Chris Sale, or if they are used as trade bait to get new prospects. The White Sox will struggle to reach .500 this season.