Tag Archives: William Contreras

May 14, 2024

Best Batter Today

The games of Monday did not change the order of the top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Juan Soto and Aaron Judge of the Yankees sit first and third after a team day off. Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers remains second as he returned to the Dodgers lineup with a two for five in a 6-4, 10 inning win in San Francisco. William Contreras of the Brewers stands in fourth place as he collected three hits in five at bats to raise his BA to .354. The Pirates took the game 8-6. Marcell Ozuna of the Braves singled and drew two walks in a 2-0 win over the Cubs.

Two players posted high games scores of 88 to tie for best performance of the day. Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates went five for five with two doubles and a homer to help beat the Brewers. He got off to a slow start, especially power wise, but has seven extra-base hits in his last eight games. Alex Bregman of the Astros went three for three with a walk, a double, and two home runs for his 88 as Houston beat Oakland 9-2. Bregman’s poor start caused the Astros to drop him lower in the order, and even with the big game on Monday his slash line stands at .218/.288/.327. Those were only his second and third home runs of the season.

May 13, 2024

Best Batter Today

Marcell Ozuna climbs back into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He posted a two for three with a walk and two RBI in a 4-3 Mets walk off victory. Ozuna leads the NL in home runs and RBI and ranks second in slugging percentage to Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers. Ohtani did not start on Sunday and ranks second.

Juan Soto of the Yankees remains on top after a one for four in a 10-6 win over the Rays. His teammate, Aaron Judge, posted a two for four with a home run and a walk to rank third. William Contreras of the Brewers sits in fourth place after a two for four in a 4-3 Cardinals win. Contreras is all over the NL Leader boards, first in runs scored, and in the top three BA, OBP, and slugging percentage.

Two batters tied for best game score of the day with 74. Patrick Wisdom of the Cubs reached base four times in five trips to the plate with a walk, two singles, and a home run in a 5-4 win over the Pirates. He appears to be over his back injury, hitting .321/.441/.679 in eleven games since his return.

Willie Calhoun of the Angels went three for four with a double and a home run for his 74, but the Royals took the game 4-2. He’s only played nine games this season, but gives the Angels some needed offense with a .333/.361/.606 slash line, as four of his six hits went for extra bases. That small sample size is way above his career norms.

May 12, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.341 — William Contreras batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.314 — Luis Arraez batting against Walker Buehler.
0.302 — Christian Yelich batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.299 — Brice Turang batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.299 — Josh Rojas batting against Alex Wood.
0.297 — Jeremy Pena batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.297 — Oneil Cruz batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.297 — Jose Altuve batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.293 — Connor Joe batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.289 — Marcus Semien batting against Ty Blach.

It looks like a good day to double down on Brewers. Contreras owns a .409 BABIP for the season and a .348 mark for his career. The opposition has a .343 BABIP against Mikolas this season, which is very bad when a pitcher doesn’t strike out many batters.

Contreras is four for nine against Mikolas but with three strikeouts. Yelich has a long history here, and is 5 for 40.

The NN produces these batters with a high probability of getting a hit:

0.314, 0.748 — Luis Arraez batting against Walker Buehler.
0.341, 0.727 — William Contreras batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.297, 0.713 — Jose Altuve batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.297, 0.704 — Jeremy Pena batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.287, 0.703 — Alec Bohm batting against Braxton Garrett.
0.289, 0.691 — Marcus Semien batting against Ty Blach.
0.283, 0.690 — Ezequiel Duran batting against Ty Blach.
0.267, 0.687 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Yu Darvish.
0.282, 0.686 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Patrick Sandoval.
0.286, 0.684 — Jonah Heim batting against Ty Blach.
0.254, 0.684 — Freddie Freeman batting against Yu Darvish.

The NN is more bullish on the Texas teams than the Brewers. Arraez and Contreas tie for the top consensus pick. Ohtani left Saturday night’s game with back tightness and may not play.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 12, 2024

Best Batter Today

Two players rise into the top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. William Contreras of the Brewers drew two walks and doubled in a 5-3 win over the Cardinals to move into fourth place. The Cardinals lost seven games in a row. Josh Naylor of the Guardians homered in a 3-1 White Sox win to take fifth place. The White Sox won their fourth game in a row.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers drew a walk in a 5-0 win over the Padres to stay in second place. He did come out of the game with back tightness and is likely to miss Sunday’s game.

Juan Soto and Aaron Judge of the Yankees stand first and third respectively. Soto went 0 for 4 and Judge was hit by a pitch in a 7-2 Rays win. Meanwhile, Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena of the Rays posted the two highest game scores of the day, a 76 and 74 respectively. Diaz collect two doubles and a home run, while Arozarena doubled, homered, and walked. Both hitters are off to slow starts, Diaz showing little power and Arozarena doing a poor job of getting on base. Maybe they are starting to turn things around.

May 3, 2024

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto of the Yankees remains in first place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings on a day without much action. Soto collected two hits, including his first triple of the season in a 7-2 Orioles win. Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers, Alec Bohm of the Phillies, and William Contreras of the Brewers did not play on Thursday and rank two through five respectively.

Two Astros batters tie for best game score of the day at 66. Jeremy Pena went two for three with a triple and a hit by pitch, while Jonathan Singleton collected a single, home run and a sacrifice fly. Pena is hitting .333/.375/.467 as a shortstop. Combined with Jose Altuve, the Astros middle infield produces an impressive amount of offense. Singleton, after a career shortened by drug abuse, is finally producing at a level that makes him a useful player.

May 1, 2024

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto of the Yankees posted a game score of 69 on Tuesday night to remain in first place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. His two for three with a walk and a home run was not enough to prevent a 4-2 Orioles victory.

Mookie Betts of the Dodger drew two walks, and his teammate, Shohei Ohtani singled in a 4-3, ten inning win by the Diamondbacks. They rank second and third respectively. Note the 1-2-3-4 batters in the Dodgers lineup all rank in the top 20.

Alec Bohm of the Phillies posted a two for five in a 7-5 win over the Angels for fourth place, while William Contreras of the Brewers went one for four in an 8-2 win over the Rays for fifth place.

The best game score of the day came in game two of the doubleheader between the Cardinals and the Tigers. Wenceel Perez of the Tigers posted the best game of his rookie season with a three for four, including a walk and two home runs for a game score of 82. The Tigers win 11-6 for a split on the day. Perez is now 13 for 43 on the season with six extra base hits and a .375 OBP. His two best games came in game two of doubleheaders.

April 30, 2024

Best Batter Today

Monday’s games did not produce much change to the top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Juan Soto of the Yankees remains on top after a one for four in a 2-0 Orioles win, Baltimore reclaiming first place. Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers rank second and third respectively. Betts drew two walks while Ohtani collected two hits and a walk in an 8-4 win over the Diamondbacks. Alec Bohm of the Phillies singled, walked, and hit a sacrifice fly in a 6-5 Angels win and sits in fourth place. William Contreras of the Brewers singled in a 1-0 Rays win for fifth place.

The best game score of the day went to Justin Turner of the Blue Jays, two for five with two home runs in a 6-5 win over the Royals. That was good for a score of 70. While some of the Blue Jays stars struggled to start the season, the veteran is hitting on all cylinders, with a .311/.390/.533 slash line.

April 29, 2024

Best Batter Today

Alec Bohm of the Phillies joins the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, now in fourth place after Sunday’s games. Bohm went three for five with two doubles in an 8-6 win in San Diego. Bohm show a marked change in two categories that suddenly made him the best hitter on a star-studded team. Bohm draws walks at 12.4% this season compared to 6.9% for his career. His BABIP rose to .403 from a career mark of .326. That suggests to me his plate discipline improved. He both cut down on swings at pitches outside the strike zone, and his contact rate inside the strike zone is up. So far it’s working. Those numbers may not be sustainable long term, but the better approach at the plate gives the Phillies another great offensive weapon.

Juan Soto remains on top of the leaderboard after a one for five in a 15-5 win over the Brewers. His teammate, Anthony Rizzo, posted the highest game score of the day, an 86. Rizzo collected four hits on the day, including two doubles and a home run. He drew a walk as well. That gives him a .277/.314/.446 slash line. There should have been some worry coming into the season of long term concussion effects with Rizzo. He seems to be getting back into the swing lately, however, as he slashed .382/.417/.794 over his last nine games.

In the same game, William Contreras of the Brewers went two for five with a double for fifth place.

Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers continue to rank second and third respectively. Betts doubled in the 3-1 Blue Jays win, will Ohtani went 0 for four.

April 28, 2024

Best Batter Today

Saturday’s games brought a slight change to the top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Marcell Ozuna of the Braves collected two doubles and a walk in a 4-2 Guardians win to move into fourth place. He flips places with William Contreras of the Brewers, who drew a walk in three trips to the plate in a 15-3 Yankees win.

In that game, Juan Soto of the Yankees went one for three with two walks to remain in first place. Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers remain two and three respectively. Betts when three for five with a triple. Ohtani collected a single in five trips as Los Angels beats Toronto 4-2. Both batters are now slugging .661.

Ceddanne Rafaela of the Red Sox posted the best game score of the day, an 86. He performed nearly perfectly at the plate with a four for four, a sacrifice fly, two doubles, a home runs, and seven RBI as Boston downed Chicago 17-0. That raised his slash line to .191/.225/.351. Note that power represents the strength of Rafaela. In the minors, his BA was okay but his his OBP was low. His isolated power, however came in at .195. So far in the majors, 17 of his 38 base hits went for extra-bases, and his isolated power stands at .152. He is only seasonal age 23, so he still has time to improve.

April 27, 2024

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto of the Yankees remains on top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Soto went two for four with a walk and a home run in the 7-6 Brewers win. William Contreras, on the Milwaukee side, posted a one for five and ranks fourth.

Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers rank second and third respectively. Betts collected two hits, including a double, and a walk. Ohtani homered after a rude greeting by the Blue Jays fans, and also walked in the game. Los Angeles pounded Toronto 12-2.

There teammate, Will Smith, owned the highest game score of the day, a 78 Smith went four for five with a double and a home run. He owns a .376/.413/.527 slash line on the season. The numbers of Smith and Contreras are pretty amazing for first string catchers.

Marcell Ozuna of the Braves takes the fifth slot after going one for three with a double and a walk in a 6-2 win over the Guardians.

April 26, 2024

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto of the Yankees remains on top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He went one for four with a double and a walk in 3-1 Athletics win, keeping his OBP and slugging percentage high.

Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers trade slots as Betts reached base three times with a walk, single and double on Thursday, while Ohtani drops to third with an 0 for 4, ending his hit streak. Los Angeles beats Washington 2-1.

William Contreras of the Brewers ranks fourth as he posted a two for four day with a walk and a home run, his fifth of the season. He currently ranks second in both batting average and OBP in the NL, behind Betts. The Brewers beat the Pirates 7-5, and own the second best record in the NL.

Marcell Ozuna of the Braves rounds out the top five as his team was idle on Thursday.

The highest game score of the day went to Jose Ramirez of the Guardians, a 74. He collected three hits, including a grand slam, in a 6-4 win over the Red Sox. I discussed his struggles in 2024 here.

April 25, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.288 — William Contreras batting against Mitch Keller.
0.287 — Shohei Ohtani batting against MacKenzie Gore.
0.283 — Mookie Betts batting against MacKenzie Gore.
0.273 — Trea Turner batting against Nick Martinez.
0.272 — Juan Soto batting against Alex Wood.
0.271 — Freddie Freeman batting against MacKenzie Gore.
0.271 — Steven Kwan batting against Chase Anderson.
0.268 — Alec Bohm batting against Nick Martinez.
0.267 — Luis Campusano batting against Dakota Hudson.
0.267 — Will Smith batting against MacKenzie Gore.

Contreras bats high in the order, giving him a better chance at more plate appearances. The more PA in a game, the more likely the batter will get a hit. He career BABIP stands at .346.

Note that most of the games take place in the afternoon, so get your picks in early.

Here are the NN picks:

0.287, 0.697 — Shohei Ohtani batting against MacKenzie Gore.
0.288, 0.695 — William Contreras batting against Mitch Keller.
0.283, 0.694 — Mookie Betts batting against MacKenzie Gore.
0.271, 0.693 — Freddie Freeman batting against MacKenzie Gore.
0.254, 0.687 — Jose Altuve batting against Javier Assad.
0.271, 0.683 — Steven Kwan batting against Chase Anderson.
0.273, 0.681 — Trea Turner batting against Nick Martinez.
0.268, 0.675 — Alec Bohm batting against Nick Martinez.
0.258, 0.673 — Josh Naylor batting against Chase Anderson.
0.267, 0.673 — Luis Campusano batting against Dakota Hudson.

The NN flips the top two. Note with the low probabilities, it’s not a great double down day. Taking both Ohtani and Contreras would only hit with a probability of 0.48. If you think about the game as surviving until tomorrow, a double down today means the odds are against you.

Ohtani owns a nine game hit streak, the longest in the majors at the moment.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 25, 2024

Best Batter Today

William Contreras of the Brewers returns to the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. The catcher hit leadoff on the road and went three for four with a walk in a 3-2 win over the Pirates to move into fifth place.

At the top stands Juan Soto of the Yankees. He homered and walks in a 7-3 win over the Athletics, his OBP now at .431.

Dodgers Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts sit second and third respectively after an 11-2 win over the Nationals. Betts posted a slightly better game. Both doubled (Ohtani three times), but Betts went four for six to Ohtani’s three for six. Note that rookie Andy Pages* doubled and homered in the game, so five of his first seven hits went for extra bases.

*If he married Kathleen Turner he’d be Andy Pages-Turner. If Paige Turco married him she’d be Paige Pages.

Marcell Ozuna of the Braves rounds out the top five, ranking fourth. He went three for four in a 4-3 win over the Marlins and is batting .344 on the season.

The best game score of the day belonged to Connor Wong of the Red Sox, a 90. Perfect at the plate, he posted a four for four with two home runs. Wong is batting .370/.386/.667 on the season, but his 56 PA are not enough to qualify him for the leader boards.

April 21, 2024

Best Batter Today

Josh Naylor of the Guardians moves back into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He went two for four with a home run, his sixth, in a 6-3 win over the Athletics. Naylor ranks fifth.

Still in the top slot sits Juan Soto of the Yankees. He picked up half the New York hits as he posted a two for four with a double in a 2-0, ten innings Rays win. Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers rank two and four respectively. Betts doubled and drew three walks in a 6-4 Mets win, while Ohtani singled and drew three walks.

Including Freddie Freeman the Mets walked the three most dangerous hitters in the Dodgers lineup eight times. There was clearly a defensive purpose to these walks. The rest of the lineup went two for 24 with two walks. New York took advantage of a Dodgers batting order that is not as deep as in recent years.

William Contreras of the Brewers rounds out the top five as he ranks fourth after a three for six game in a 12-5 win over the Cardinals.

Patrick Bailey of the Giants posted the highest game score of the day, an 84. The catcher went four for four with two doubles and a home run in the 7-3 win over the Diamondbacks. Bailey is doing a pretty good Buster Posey impression, with a .340/.397/.560 slash line. His minor league numbers indicate that level is not sustainable for him.

April 20, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method Yields these top picks:

0.298 — Steven Kwan batting against Alex Wood.
0.296 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Williams.
0.289 — William Contreras batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.286 — Josh Naylor batting against Alex Wood.
0.284 — Nolan Arenado batting against DL Hall.
0.278 — Trea Turner batting against Michael Soroka.
0.277 — Jeremy Pena batting against Trevor Williams.
0.270 — Jarren Duran batting against Mitch Keller.
0.269 — Ketel Marte batting against Kyle Harrison.
0.269 — Ryan McMahon batting against Luis Castillo.
0.269 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Bailey Ober.
0.269 — Andres Gimenez batting against Alex Wood.

Contreras extended his hit streak to twelve games on Friday. Kwan is not walking much this season, his .371 OBP mostly comes from his .349 BA.

Note that Urshela is hurt but not yet on the illjured list.

Here are the NN picks:

0.296, 0.720 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Williams.
0.251, 0.698 — Luis Arraez batting against Shota Imanaga.
0.249, 0.696 — Luis Arraez batting against Javier Assad.
0.289, 0.696 — William Contreras batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.298, 0.696 — Steven Kwan batting against Alex Wood.
0.286, 0.690 — Josh Naylor batting against Alex Wood.
0.278, 0.688 — Trea Turner batting against Michael Soroka.
0.277, 0.687 — Jeremy Pena batting against Trevor Williams.
0.269, 0.684 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Bailey Ober.
0.284, 0.681 — Nolan Arenado batting against DL Hall.

The Marlins and Cubs play a doubleheader in Chicago, so you could double down with Arraez today. Altuve wins the consensus top pick, Kwan the consensus double down choice, although Contreras is close.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 20, 2024

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto of the Yankees now owns a 20 point lead in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He walked and hit a big three-run homer in the seventh inning of the 5-3 win over the Rays. Mookie Betts of the Dodgers ranks second as he draws a walk in a 9-4 Mets win. His teammate, Shohei Ohtani moves up to fourth with a single and a walk in the game.

Marcell Ozuna of the Braves singled and walked in an 8-3 win over the Rangers for third place. His teammate, Travis d’Arnaud hit three home runs and drove in six runs for the best game score of the day, a 90. d’Arnaud started slowly this season, and even with the big night his BA/OBP stands at .245/.288. Those were the first home runs he hit this season, but he does have five doubles for a good .531 slugging percentage. He is the third player this season to post a game score of at least 90.

William Contreras of the Brewers rounds out the top five as he goes two for five with a double, driving in both runs in the 2-1 win over the Cardinals. Betts, Contreras, Ozuna, and Soto all do very well in driving in the runners they’ve found on base.

April 17, 2024

Best Batter Today

Mookie Betts of the Dodgers returns to the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a vengeance. He went five for five with two doubles in a 6-2 win over the Nationals. His 81 came in as the best game score of the day and puts him in second place.

Juan Soto of the Yankees remains in first place as he singles in four trips in a 5-4 Toronto victory. He leads Betts by four points. William Contreras of the Brewers ranks third after a 1 for 5 in a 6-3 Padres win. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros drops to fourth with an 0 for 4 in 6-2 Braves win. Marcell Ozuna of the Braves singled and walked to move into fifth place. Ozuna owns a .364/.417/.727 slash line early in the season. He leads the NL in home runs, RBI, and slugging percentage.

April 16, 2024

Best Batter Today

Monday’s games shook up the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings a bit. Jose Altuve of the Astros continued his hot hitting to move into fourth place on the list. He went three for four in a 6-1 Braves win, Altuve now batting .403 on the season. His teammate, Yordan Alvarez, took a rare 0 for 4 and remains second.

Juan Soto still tops the list as he drew a walk in four trips in a 3-1 Blue Jays victory. William Contreras of the Brewers sits third after collecting two single and two walks in a 7-3 Padres win. Josh Naylor of the Guardians rounds out the top five as he singled in four trips in a 6-0 win over the Red Sox.

Mitch Haniger of the Mariners posted the highest game score of the day, a 73. He doubled, homered, and walked in a 9-3 win over the Reds, driving in three runs. In his return to the Mariners after a one-year stint in San Francisco, Haniger is posting his best numbers since 2018 with a .375 OBP and a .500 slugging percentage. He now ranks 142.

April 15, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.290 — Nolan Arenado batting against Ross Stripling.
0.281 — Trea Turner batting against Cal Quantrill.
0.280 — William Contreras batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.278 — Brendan Donovan batting against Ross Stripling.
0.276 — Jake Fraley batting against George Kirby.
0.274 — Masyn Winn batting against Ross Stripling.
0.271 — Brandon Marsh batting against Cal Quantrill.
0.270 — Harold Ramirez batting against Patrick Sandoval.
0.270 — Ivan Herrera batting against Ross Stripling.
0.270 — Michael Harris II batting against Spencer Arrighetti.

Arenado puts the ball in play in 2024. In 69 PA he walked once, was hit once, and struck out just ten times. His batting average of .273 is good, while his OBP of .290 is bad. His hit average of .261is well above the league average of .217, so he does well in Log5. Contreras sports a ten game hit streak.

Here are the NN picks:

0.268, 0.709 — Luis Arraez batting against Kyle Harrison.
0.270, 0.695 — Harold Ramirez batting against Patrick Sandoval.
0.266, 0.693 — Jose Altuve batting against Darius Vines.
0.270, 0.692 — Michael Harris II batting against Spencer Arrighetti.
0.257, 0.685 — Freddie Freeman batting against Mitchell Parker.
0.280, 0.685 — William Contreras batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.281, 0.683 — Trea Turner batting against Cal Quantrill.
0.290, 0.683 — Nolan Arenado batting against Ross Stripling.
0.258, 0.677 — Ronald Acuna batting against Spencer Arrighetti.
0.254, 0.676 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Michael Lorenzen.

Once again, Log5 picks up on Arraez’s slow start faster than the NN. I suspect this is a feature, not a bug, as it keeps Arraez from being a consensus choice (he ranks 11th in the Log5 Method). Arenado and Contreras tie for the consensus top pick.

A reminder, the ~~Angels~~ Guardians and Red Sox play at 11 AM today, so if you are going to choose from that game, get your picks in early.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 15, 2024

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto of the Yankees remains atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after going two for four with a walk in an 8-7, 10 inning win by the Guardians. Josh Naylor of Cleveland posted a two for five with a double in the game to move into third place.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros holds second place as he draws two walks in the 8-5 win over Texas as Houston starts to come to life. His teammate, Jose Altuve, collected the best game score of the day, a 77 as he goes three for five with two home runs. Altuve moves up to seventh on the list with a 2024 slash line of .382/.462/.721.

Mookie Betts ranks fourth after a one for four night in a 6-3 Padres win, while William Contreras of the Brewers moves into fifth place with a two for four with a home run in a 6-4 Orioles win. Contreras was in the lead-off slot for the game, but as the designated hitter, not the catcher.

April 10, 2024

Best Batter Today

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros widens the gap between first and second place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He collected four hits in five at bats, including a double, but the Royals take the game 4-3. Juan Soto of the Yankees singled and walked in a 3-2 win over the Marlins to remain in second place.

Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers rank third and fourth respectively. Betts singled and walked three times, while Ohtani doubled in five trips, his eight double of the season. That leads the majors. William Contreras of the Brewers rounds out the top five after he went one for four with a walk in a 9-5 win over the Reds. Contreras, a catcher, is batting second in the Brewers lineup, and so far it’s working as his OBP stands at .435.

Shea Langeliers of the Athletics experienced the game of his career and the highest game score of the day, an 87. He went three for four with three home runs and four RBI in a 4-3 win over the Rangers. Langeliers is a light hitting catcher in terms of collecting hits and getting on base, but he can hit the ball a long way. Sixty six of his 131 hits went for extra bases. There’s a high price to pay for that power in outs (career .268 OBP), but once in a while, he’s all the offense a team needs.

April 9, 2024

Best Batter Today

Three of the top five batters in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings produced game scores of 72 on Monday. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros goes three for five with a double and home run to stay in first place. Houston downed the Rangers 10-5. Less than a point behind him sits Juan Soto of the Yankees, two for three with a walk, double, and home run in the 7-0 win over the Marlins. Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers ranks fourth after a three for five night with two doubles and a home run in a 4-2 win over the Twins.

Ohtani’s teammate, Mookie Betts, ranks third after collecting a single and a walk in the same game. Fifth place belongs to William Contreras of the Brewers. He goes two for five with a double in a 10-8 slugfest won by the Reds.

Brandon Nimmo of the Mets posted the highest game score of the day, a 92. He went four for four with two home runs and a walk in a perfect night at the plate, the Mets edging the Braves 8-7. Nimmo was off to a slow start hit wise, as his big night raises his batting average to just .212, but his OBP to .395. He now owns seven hits and eight walks on the season.

April 7, 2024

Best Batter Monday

William Contreras of the Brewers and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers move into the fourth and fifth slots of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings respectively. Contreras posted the highest game score on Sunday, an 86. He collected four hits in five trips with two of those leaving the park as Milwaukee beats Seattle 12-4. He is hitting .387/.444/.677 on the season. Ohtani doubled and tripled in an 8-1 Cubs win. That’ he 29th triple of his career. His teammate, Mookie Betts drew a walk in four trips to the plate and now ranks third.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros ranks first as he homers and walks in a 3-1 Astros victory over the Rangers. Juan Soto of the Yankees holds second place after he singles and walks in an 8-3 win over the Brewers.

September 18, 2023

Beat the Streak Pick

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.322 — William Contreras batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.316 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Ty Blach.
0.315 — Luis Campusano batting against Ty Blach.
0.309 — Josh Naylor batting against Brady Singer.
0.307 — Owen Miller batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.305 — Andruw Monasterio batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.304 — Christian Yelich batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.300 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Ty Blach.
0.297 — Mark Canha batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.297 — Manny Machado batting against Ty Blach.

The Brewers make the list mostly due to Wainwright’s numbers. Contreras is a fine hitter, but he both walks and strikes out a lot, which tends not to be great for extending hit streaks.

Here are the NN picks:

0.296, 0.753 — Luis Arraez batting against Jose Butto.
0.309, 0.717 — Josh Naylor batting against Brady Singer.
0.278, 0.716 — Freddie Freeman batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.316, 0.709 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Ty Blach.
0.322, 0.704 — William Contreras batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.274, 0.699 — Corey Seager batting against Kutter Crawford.
0.264, 0.699 — Michael Harris II batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.269, 0.699 — Ronald Acuna batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.315, 0.695 — Luis Campusano batting against Ty Blach.
0.271, 0.689 — Trea Turner batting against Kyle Wright.

Arraez ranked 11th on the Log5 list. Naylor and Contreras tie for the consensus top pick. Naylor puts the ball in play against Singer, but with little success.

February 20, 2023

The Other Contreras

Todd Rosiak breaks down the catching position for the Brewers. While the acquisition of William Contreras should improve the position offensively, The pitching staff may get off to a better start as well:

To that end, Contreras jumped in with both feet after being traded on Dec. 12 by watching plenty of video of the Brewers’ returning pitchers.

In that regard he’s already way ahead of where projected backup Pedro Severino was last year coming into camp with the lockout having cut off communication between clubs and players.

Then when Severino was suspended at the end of camp, Caratini joined the Brewers at Wrigley Field on opening day and had to quite literally begin learning his new pitchers on the fly.

It was a process that Caratini said took several weeks.
JSOnline.com

With Caratini as the backup, pitchers and catchers should be in sync at the start of the regular season.

Rosiak also goes into detail about the minor league depth at the position as well. It’s always a good thing to be heavy with talent at up the middle positions. Players who can hit might move to less demanding defensive positions. The better catchers make excellent trade chips.

December 12, 2022

Big Deal

The Athletics, Braves, and Brewers pull off a nine player deal, involving two very good catchers:

The Atlanta Braves acquired star catcher Sean Murphy in a three-way trade with the Oakland Athletics and Milwaukee Brewers that saw nine players switch teams, the organizations announced on Monday.

Murphy, 28, was among the most prized players on the trade market this offseason, and Atlanta — which dealt young catcher William Contreras to Milwaukee and still has veteran Travis d’Arnaud — pounced to get him.
ESPN.com

This is the second off-season in a row where the Athletics traded a star to the Braves.

Oakland gets pitchers Kyle Muller, Freddy Tarnok, and Royber Salinas from the Braves, along with catcher Manny Pina. They get Esteury Ruiz from Milwaukee.

The Brewers also get two relievers, Joel Payamps from Oakland and Justin Yeager from the Braves.

The two catchers were among the best hitters at the position in 2022, although Contreras did not play that much.

Muller owns 49 MLB innings, and has walked a high number of batters. Walks are definitely his weak point, but he does limit home runs. Tarnok is similar, but with a higher K rate and a lower walk rate in his minor league career. Salinas, just 21, posted very high strikeout numbers as a starter in 2022 at A ball, but that came with high walk numbers. All three give up very few hits, and maybe the A’s are willing to live with the walks since without hits those runners have a tough time advancing around the bases.

Ruiz, based on his minor league numbers, should be an excellent lead-off hitter. He hit 26 triples in the minors in 521 games while stealing 243 bases with 59 caught stealing. He is clearly a player designed to take advantage of the new pick-off rules. That goes with a high OBP.

Yeager is the other prospect in the deal, and is another high K, high BB pitcher. The Braves seemed to have cleared that type of pitcher out of their system.

It’s a good deal all around. The Braves and Brewers, competing now, get solid at positions that are tough to fill with offense. Oakland gets a number of good arms and a Rickey Henderson type player as they rebuild.

July 31, 2022

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge of the Yankees uses a two for three day with a home run and two walks to inch past Yordan Alvarez of the Astros into first place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Alvarez drew a walk in five trips to the plate in a 5-4 Seattle victory. The Yankees beat the Royals 8-2.

Judge joins a very short list of players who hit at least 42 home runs by the end of July. Mark McGwire hit 45 in 1998, and Barry Bonds matched that in 2001. Both set records those years, McGwire finishing with 70 homers, Bonds 73. Sammy Sosa hit 42 in 1998, finishing with 66. Judge is now on a pace for 67 home runs. Through most of this run, I thought it would be tough enough to catch Roger Maris for the AL record. Bonds seemed out of reach. This hot streak, however, makes me wonder if Judge could reach 73 or 74 home runs. The odds remain long, and hot streaks tend to dissipate. Sixteen home runs in a month remain a high total. Since 1920, there have only been eighteen months a player hit at least 16 home runs in a month. The last was Kyle Schwarber in 2021, when he hit sixteen in June.

Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals sits in third place as he goes one for four in a 7-6 Nationals victory. Austin Riley of the Braves posts a one for four in a 6-2 win over the Diamondbacks for fourth place. Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers singled and doubled in a 5-3 Rockies win for fifth place.

The highest game score of the day belongs to William Contreras of the Braves. He goes three for four with two home runs for a game score of 80. The Braves catcher turned into quite the power hitter, with twenty six home runs on the season and a .551 slugging percentage. Twenty two of his 44 hits have gone for extra bases.

June 18, 2022

Double Contrerases

The catching brothers, Willson Contreras of the Cubs and William Contreras of the Braves both produced good days at the plate on Saturday. William posted a two for four day with a double. Willson did a bit better, three for five with a double, a run, and an RBI. That helped the Cubs to a 6-3 win.

The two hit well so far in 2022, both with high OBP and slugging percentages. It must be a fun family competition.

May 2, 2021

Catcher Depth

The Braves will test the depth of their catching pool as both their backstops, Travis d’Arnaud and Alex Jackson land on the illjured list:

Manager Brian Snitker said after the game that d’Arnaud “jammed his thumb, screwed it up. It’s not good.”
Catcher Alex Jackson, who replaced d’Arnaud in Saturday’s game, also landed on the 10-day injured list Sunday with a strained left hamstring.
ESPN.com

The thumb injury will put d’Arnaud out for at least two months. The Braves started William Contreras today, who went four for ten in 2020. That’s his MLB career.