Tag Archives: Vladimir Guerrero

July 29, 2025

Best Batter Today

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays takes over the fifth slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He went two for four with a home run and a walk in an 11-4 Orioles win. Guerrero recorded ten multi-hit games in his last 19 starts, and hit .384/.483/.589 during that stretch.

Two Orioles batters tied for best game score of the day at 72. Coby Mayo collected three hits, including a home run, from the ninth hole while Cedric Mullins II went two for three with a double, a homer, and a walk from the eight hole.

Corey Seager of the Rangers stayed at the top of the list. He drew two walks in a 6-4 Angels win. Jose Ramirez of the Guardians went 0 for 4 with a walk in an 8-6 Rockies win. The Rockies are 6-4 in their last ten games and are looking like they’ll finish better than the 1962 Mets and the 2024 White Sox. Cal Raleigh of the Mariners held third place with a two for four in a 3-1 win over the Athletics, the Mariners now three games behind the Astros. Matt Olson of the Braves doubled and walked to stay in fourth place in a 10-7 win over the Royals.

July 23, 2025

Contra Steering

You might want to compare this thread to my praise of the two strike approach of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. last night.

Why The Best Hitters In MLB Whiff A LOT

I wanna circle back to this and talk about why the best hitters in baseball are usually NOT good at making contact and post well above average whiff rates.

Lets use Nick Kurtz as an example?

1/12 https://t.co/vpKBxHGCvd pic.twitter.com/A54H0oQB63
— Justin Sartori (@Justin_Sartori) July 22, 2025

July 22, 2025

Steering the Ball

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. led off the ninth inning for the Blue Jays against Devin Williams and the Yankees, New York leading 5-4. With two strikes and the defense playing Guerrero to pull, the Toronto slugger takes a short swing and sends the ball through the hole on the right side.

With two strikes he didn’t try to kill the ball. He took what the defense gave him and the Blue Jays put the leadoff man on down one-run. That should be the model for most batters facing a shift, make contact toward the hole with two strikes. After all these years of shifting, I remain amazed that batters don’t do that more often.

Update: The single goes for naught as the Yankees win 5-4.

May 20, 2025

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge of the Yankees and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays took the day off on Monday, so Judge remains atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings and Guerrero ranks fourth. Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers did play, and they rank second and fifth respectively. Ohtani hit his seventeenth home run of the season to take the MLB lead, while Freeman went one for four with a double in a 9-5 Diamondbacks win. Three games no separate the top four teams in the NL West as the Dodgers lost four in a row.

Cal Raleigh of the Mariners went 0 for 4 in a 5-1 win over the White Sox and sits in third place. We should continue to see lots of churn in three through five as ten points separate three from thirteen, and ten points separate four from twenty five!

William Contreras of the Brewers posted the best game score of the day, a 79. He went four for four with a walk and two doubles in a 5-4 win over the Orioles. Contreras gets on base this season with a .370 OBP, a hallmark of his career. His power is down, however, as he slugs just .371 this season. Maybe the two doubles is a sign that things are picking up.

May 18, 2025

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge of the Yankees retained first place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a one for three night, including a double and two walk in an 8-2 win over the Mets. Judge is now batting .401. After striking out with the bases loaded in the eighth inning, his teammate Cody Bellinger stepped to the plate to deliver a grand slam to cap a perfect night at the plate. Bellinger went three for three with two walks, a double, the homer, and six RBI for a game score of 86, the highest on the day. He extended his hit streak to thirteen games, the longest current streak in the majors.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers held second place with a three for five in a 6-4 win by the Angels, completing a sweep of the Dodgers. Ohtani’s teammate, Freddie Freeman posted a one for four for fourth place.

Cal Raleigh of the Mariners struck out four times but drove in a run with a sacrifice fly in sit in third place. Seattle sweeps San Diego with a 6-1 win. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays singled and walked twice for fifth place, but the Tigers took the game 3-2.

May 16, 2025

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge of the Yankees and Cal Raleigh of the Mariners did not see action on Thursday. They rank one and three respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings.

Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers rank two and four respectively after they participated in a 19-2 thrashing of the Athletics. Ohtani hit two home runs and drove in six runs in five at bats, while Freeman went two for three to raise his BA to .370. Like Judge in the AL, Freeman leads the NL in all three offensive average categories.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays rounds out the top five. He homered and walked twice in an 8-3 Rays win.

In that same game, Brandon Lowe of the Rays produced the highest game score of the day, a 78. He went three for five with two home runs and four RBI. He needed a good game, as his slash line for the season stands at .220/.272/.373.

May 1, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

0.316 — Jung Hoo Lee batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.304 — Tyler Fitzgerald batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.291 — Heliot Ramos batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.290 — Steven Kwan batting against Simeon Woods Richardson.
0.288 — Bo Bichette batting against Tanner Houck.
0.278 — Mike Yastrzemski batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.275 — Wilmer Flores batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.273 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Tanner Houck.
0.272 — Christian Koss batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.271 — Sam Huff batting against Kyle Freeland.

With limited action today, this list may be more about Freeland and Houck than the hitters. Yastrzemski owns more than a handful of PA against Freeland and is 8 for 18 with two walks and just two strikeouts. Guerrero stands 7 for 20 against Houck with three K and no walks.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

0.316, 0.698 — Jung Hoo Lee batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.290, 0.692 — Steven Kwan batting against Simeon Woods Richardson.
0.304, 0.691 — Tyler Fitzgerald batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.288, 0.683 — Bo Bichette batting against Tanner Houck.
0.243, 0.683 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Shane Baz.
0.273, 0.674 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Tanner Houck.
0.291, 0.674 — Heliot Ramos batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.265, 0.673 — Trea Turner batting against Bradley Lord.
0.266, 0.672 — Austin Hays batting against Matthew Liberatore.
0.250, 0.671 — Brendan Donovan batting against Andrew Abbott.
0.260, 0.671 — Jarren Duran batting against Jose Berrios.

Lee tops both lists, and currently owns a seven game hit streak, one third of Bobby Witt‘s active streak. Lee owns a low K rate with a high BABIP, especially this season, making him a good candidate to extend a streak. With only 286 PA under his belt, his numbers are still regressed quite a bit toward the .215 MLB hit average, so his .698 might be a floor rather than a ceiling. Fitzgerald comes in as the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 22, 2025

Best Batter Today

Batters keep moving in and out of the top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Kyle Tucker of the Cubs takes over the fifth slot despite not playing on Monday as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays took an 0 for 4 in a 7-0 Astros win and slips to sixth place. Ten points separate fifth from sixteenth place.

Aaron Judge of the Yankees remains on top of the board as he doubled and walked in a 6-4 Guardians win. Judge is slugging .698. Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres remains second with a single in five trips to the plate, the Tigers taking that game 6-4. The Tigers lead the Guardians by 1/2 game in the AL Central.

Pete Alonso of the Mets sits in third place after a one for four in a 5-4 win over the Phillies, extending the Mets lead in the NL East to three games. His teammate, Francisco Lindor, hit two home runs and drew a walk for a game score of 78, the best on the day. Lindor owns ten hits, four of them home runs, in his last six games. Lindor and Juan Soto rank 8th and 9th respectively, giving the Mets three batters in the top ten.

Cal Raleigh of the Mariners rounds out the top five in fourth place. He and the team were idle on Monday.

April 21, 2025

Best Batter Today

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays made his way back into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Guerrero went two for three with a double and two walks for a game score of 66, lifting him to fourth place. His power is starting to show, as he collected three extra-base hits in his last four games. In the same game, Cal Raleigh of the Mariners homered in five trips to the plate and ranks fifth. He is tied for the AL lead in home runs with nine.

Aaron Judge of the Yankees stays atop the rankings, but his lead is shrinking. He went one for four in the 4-0 win over the Rays and is not batting .390. Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres moved into second place and closed the gap on Judge with a two for three with a walk in the 3-2 win over the Astros. His two hits went long, a triple and a home run, and he scored all three of the Padres runs.

Pete Alonso of the Mets drops to third place with a one for five in a 7-4 win over the Cardinals.

Austins Wynns of the Reds posted the best game score of the day, a 90. He went six for seven out of the nine slot in the batting order, with a home run and six RBI. He is the seventh player to post a game score of 90 this season, and the second Reds player to reach that height (Elly De La Cruz posted a 91 on 3/31). Wynns hit like a backup catcher for most of his career, but since joining the Reds last season he hit .415/.455/.659 in sixteen games with six extra-base hits and eleven RBI.

April 17, 2025

Best Batter Today

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays pops back into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He posted a game score of 69 in a 3-1 win over the Braves with a two for three, a home run and a walk. He is now hitting .292/.373/.389 on the season. That home run was his first on the year, and he owns four doubles as his only other extra-base hits. His fifth place rank shows the importance of getting on base, but with his large contract extension, the Blue Jays hope Guerrero finally broke the power dam.

Aaron Judge of the Yankees remains in first place after he posted the best game score of the day, a 77. He went three for three with a double, home run, and an intentional walk in a 4-3 win over the Royals, a game saved by a great diving/tripping catch by Cody Bellinger. Like Guerrero, Judge was in a bit of a power drought, with just one extra-base hit in his previous ten games. He got on base at a .523 clip, however.

Pete Alonso of the Mets sits in second place, nearly 20 points behind Judge. He went two for four with a walk in a 4-3 Twins win. Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres collected a single and a walk in a 4-2 win over the Cubs for third place. Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers went two for five in an 8-7 win over the Rockies. Colorado’s record drops to 3-15. He remains in fourth place.

Note for Mariners fans, Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, and Randy Arozarena are all in the top twelve. That’s a very nice core of hitters.

April 10, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

0.280 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Walker Buehler.
0.274 — Jackson Chourio batting against Ryan Feltner.
0.272 — Bo Bichette batting against Walker Buehler.
0.268 — George Springer batting against Walker Buehler.
0.262 — Sal Frelick batting against Ryan Feltner.
0.256 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Bailey Ober.
0.255 — Brice Turang batting against Ryan Feltner.
0.254 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Quinn Priester.
0.254 — Myles Straw batting against Walker Buehler.
0.253 — Alejandro Kirk batting against Walker Buehler.
0.253 — Luis Rengifo batting against Zack Littell.

Only six games on tap today, so you’ll see some different names in the top lists. Turang (12) and Chourio (11) rank two and three in longest current hit streaks. Guerrero owns a long-term hit average of .267, which is very good in this era, and Buehler allowed 103 hits in 84 2/3 innings during the regular season since returning from missing the 2023 season.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of recording at least one hit today:

0.280, 0.684 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Walker Buehler.
0.274, 0.680 — Jackson Chourio batting against Ryan Feltner.
0.256, 0.674 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Bailey Ober.
0.272, 0.665 — Bo Bichette batting against Walker Buehler.
0.254, 0.657 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Quinn Priester.
0.262, 0.654 — Sal Frelick batting against Ryan Feltner.
0.253, 0.653 — Luis Rengifo batting against Zack Littell.
0.248, 0.652 — Jarren Duran batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.246, 0.647 — Steven Kwan batting against Jonathan Cannon.
0.268, 0.643 — George Springer batting against Walker Buehler.

Springer leads the AL with a .447 BA. He records seven multi-hit games this season.

The two systems agree on Guerrero and Chourio as the double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 7, 2025

Guerrero Extended

The Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. agreed to a massive extension late last night:

First baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays are in agreement on a 14-year, $500 million contract extension, pending a physical, sources told ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Sunday night.

This is a monumental, no-deferral deal to keep the homegrown star in Toronto for the rest of his career, and comes as the 5-5 Blue Jays are in the midst of a road trip that takes them to Fenway Park to meet the Boston Red Sox on Monday.

Guerrero, 26, a four-time All-Star and son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, had said he would not negotiate during the season after the sides failed to come to an agreement before he reported to spring training. But the sides continued talking and sealed a deal that is the third largest in Major League Baseball history, behind only Juan Soto‘s 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets and Shohei Ohtani‘s 10-year, $700 million pact with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
ESPN.com

The Blue Jays tried to spend money on free agents the last two years, but lost out to the two big deals above. Note that the Blue Jays made a deal that pays Guerrero free agent money without him becoming a free agent.

Guerrero averaged 3.3 fWAR in his three previous seasons, last year coming in at 5.4 fWAR, still below his seasonal age 22 season of 6.4 fWAR. So in figuring out his WAR over the life of the deal, I take the 3.3 WAR as a constant over his prime (through age 29, four year), then a 10% a year fall off after that. That puts him at 32.5 fWAR for the life of the contract, or about $15.4 million per WAR. That is much higher than the $10 to $12 million per WAR free agents get today. Setting his current value at five fWAR per year for his prime yields a total of 49.3 f WAR for the life of the contract, $10.1 million per WAR. That value per WAR makes a lot more sense in the present market, given that Guerrero is not a free agent.

This raises the question, did the Blue Jays get the valuation correct? Guerrero owns a relatively low strikeout rate for a slugger, which is why he hits for a high batting average. His isolated power is good, and his BABIP increased in recent years, suggesting he’s doing a better job of putting the ball in play. There is a lot of like here.

The Blue Jays may also be privy to why 2023 was such a down year. Often times a season like that comes from a nagging injury. If that was the case, this actually looks like a very good deal for Toronto, and not a Vernon Wells disaster.

April 6, 2025

Best Batter Today

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. worked his way back into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a two for five game in 3-2 Mets win. So far in 2025, Guerrero managed to reach base at a good clip, but his power failed to develop. In the same game, Juan Soto of the Mets posted a one for four and ranks third.

Aaron Judge of the Yankees remains at the top of the list after a one for four in a 10-4 win over the Pirates. Judge’s slugging percentage is now an even 1.000. Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers ranks second as he drew a walk in a 3-1 win over the Phillies.

Jose Ramirez of the Guardians rounds out the top five after drawing a walk in three trips to the plate, the Angels prevailing in the game 10-4.

T.J. Friedl of the Reds and Matt Mervis of the Marlins tie for the best game score of the day, a 76. Friedl went four for five with a home run out of the leadoff slot as the Reds ended their offensive drought with an 11-7 win over the Brewers. Twenty five of the 37 runs the Reds scored this season game in two games. Mervis posted a three for five with two home runs in a 4-0 win over the Braves. Mervis, at seasonal age 27, only played in 42 MLB games so far with a career slash line of .169/.230/.301. Yesterday’s game may turn out to be the highlight of his career.

April 2, 2025

Best Batter Today

Tuesday’s game brought a small change to the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers edges ahead of Juan Soto of the Mets as they trade second and third place. Ohtani when one for four in a 3-1 win over the Braves, preserving Los Angeles’ perfect record and leaving Atlanta winless. Soto drew a walk in a 4-2 Marlins victory.

Aaron Judge of the Yankees remains in first place after an 0 for 4 in a 7-5 Diamondbacks win. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays drew a walk in five trips to the plate in a 5-3 win over the Nationals for fourth place. Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners drew a walk and was hit by a pitch in a 4-1 Tigers win and sits in fifth place. It’s a tight race for fifth as ten points separate that slot and thirteenth place.

The best game score of the day goes to Brandon Lowe of the Rays, a 76. He posted a three for four with a home run and three RBI in a 7-0 rout of the Pirates. Lowe is off to a good start to the season, reaching base in all five games and hitting two home runs, giving him a .391 OBP and a .619 slugging percentage. He has struck out six times in 23 PA, however.

April 1, 2025

Best Batter Today

Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners takes over the fifth spot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He went two for five with a triple in a 9-6 Tigers win. Rodriguez’s .235 BA tells little about his season as he owns a .381 OBP and a .529 slugging percentage.

Aaron Judge of the Yankees still ranks first after an off day in The Bronx. Juan Soto of the Mets sits in second place. He singled and walked as his teammates hit four home runs in a 10-4 rout of the Marlins. Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers helped keep Los Angeles undefeated as he walked twice and scored a run in a 6-1 win over the Braves. Ohtani holds third place. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays doubled in four trips to the plate to remain in fourth place, Toronto defeating Washington 5-2.

Two hitters posted game scores north of 90 on Monday night. The best belonged to Carson Kelly of the Cubs, who became the first player to hit for the cycle in March. He added two walks to the four hits for a score of 94. He came into the game with just two triples to his credit:

“I’ve been in this same position before where I needed a triple for the cycle. If anybody’s ever looked up my numbers, I have two triples, so odds are not in my favor, right?” the 30-year-old Kelly said. “I didn’t get it done the first time. This time I’m like, oh, I’m just going to put a good at-bat together. Hit it, like, ‘Oh yeah, pretty good.’ Then I hit first and saw it ricochet and I was like, ‘Oh boy, this is it right here, I got to go.’ That’s probably the fastest you’ll ever see me run.”
ESPN.com

The cycle also ended the longest team cycle drought in the majors, 32 years. The Cubs spoiled the Athletics home opener in their temporary home in West Sacramento by a score of 18-3.

Earlier in the evening, Elly De La Cruz of the Reds posted a game score of 91 in a 14-3 win over the Rangers. He went four for five with a double and two homers, driving in seven runs. He now ranks 33rd. It was his first game using a torpedo bat.

De La Cruz spoke with reporters after the win and was asked about his bat choice, and whether the 3-0 Yankees influenced his decision.

“No,” he said. “It was because of, ‘How’s it feel like?'” And then when asked if he’d use it again, he looked down at the podium and laughed.
ESPN.com

They all laughed when I picked up the torpedo bat, but when I started to play…

March 30, 2025

Best Batter Monday

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Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres hit his way into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings Sunday night. He collect two walks and two hits, including a double, from the lead-off slot to move into fifth place, sporting a .529 OBP. His game score of 67 tied for ninth best on the day. The Padres downed the Braves 5-0

Aaron Judge played another good game as he homered and walked three times in a 12-3 win over the Brewers. Judge remains in first place. His teammate, Jazz Chisholm Jr. posted the best game score of the day, an 81. Chisholm posted a three for four with two home run, as the torpedo bat continues to pay dividends. He’s five for 12 on the season with three homers.

Juan Soto of the Mets remains in second place as New York and Houston were idle. Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers also took the day off, leaving Ohtani in third place.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did play, and his one for four kept him in fourth place. Toronto took the game from the Orioles 3-1.

March 30, 2025

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge moves back into first place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings by posting the highest game score of the day on Saturday, a 97, the first 90+ game score of the season. Judge came to the plate six times in the 20-9 win over the Brewers, hitting three home runs in his first three plate appearances, then adding a double. All five of his 2025 hits went for extra bases. This is Judge’s fifth 90+ game score of his career, and they include all his three homer games.

Juan Soto of the Mets takes second place with a double, a walk, and the Mets lone RBI in a 2-1 Houston win. Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers drops to third place as he draws two walks and scores two run in the 7-3 win over the Tigers, the Dodgers remaining undefeated at 5-0.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays sits fourth place after a single and an RBI in a 9-5 Orioles win. Fifth place goes to Brent Rooker of the Athletics. He posted a two for five with an RBI. Rooker isn’t off to a great start, but he ranked high coming into the season, and the batters around him are off to even slower starts.

March 28, 2025

Best Batter Today

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers stayed atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings going two for four with his second home run of the season in a 5-4 win over the Tigers. Juan Soto of the Mets sits in second place as he singled and drew two walks in his team debut, a 3-1 Astros win. In the same game, Yordan Alvarez of the Astros drew two walks for fifth place. Aaron Judge of the Yankees hit an RBI double in four trips to the plate for third place, New York beating the Brewers 4-2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr of the Blue Jays walked twice in a 12-2 Orioles win, and he ranks fourth.

Wilyer Abreu of the Red Sox posted the best game score of the day, an 85, one of four scores of at least 80. Abreu went three for thee with two home runs and a walk for a perfect day at the plate in the 5-2 win over the Rangers. Abreu now owns an isolated power of .209 (.268 BA/.477 Slug) with 60 of his 128 hits going for extra bases. A left-handed batter, he has yet to hit LHP well. He may remain a platoon player, but the Red Sox will take the side of the platoon that destroys right-handed pitching, He jumped from 306 to 267 in the rankings with that game.

March 18, 2025

Best Batter Today

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers saw action Tuesday. His two for five with a double kept him third in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, but he did close the gap a bit on the idle Juan Soto of the Mets and Aaron Judge of the Yankees. Vladimir Guerrero Jr of the Blue Jays and Francisco Lindor of the Mets round out the top five.

Will Smith of the Dodgers posted the best day at the plate with a game score of 63. He reach base four times in five trips to the plate with a single and three walks. Smith’s OBP was down in 2024, so it nice to see him get off to a good start.

February 18, 2025

Vlad Mad Wad Bad

The Blue Jays did not meet the price Vladimir Guerrero Jr asked for an extension, so he plans to play out the season and hit free agency. There is a little hope, however:

Without a deal in place, Guerrero said he plans to cut off talks and play out the season as an impending free agent, but he also said later that he “won’t close the door” on a “realistic” offer from the Blue Jays.

“Listen, I want to be here. I want to be a Blue Jay for the rest of my career,” Guerrero said. “But it’s free agency. It’s business. So I’m going to have to listen to 29 more teams and they’re going to have to compete for that.”
ESPN.com

Given his 3.4 fWAR average over the last three seasons, I would have offered him $330 to $350 million for ten years. The Jays were talking about setting a record, so it might have been more than that for a longer term. If so, that’s a pretty good offer to turn down.

January 10, 2025

V-Day for Arbitration

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Framber Valdez topped arbitration contracts on Thursday:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays avoided a salary arbitration hearing when the first baseman agreed to a one-year, $28.5 million contract, sources told ESPN on Thursday.

Houston Astros left-hander Framber Valdez also agreed to a one-year contract for $18 million, sources told ESPN.
ESPN.com

Final year arbitration deals should be worth about 80% of the player’s value in free agency, which would be $35 million for Guerrero. He averaged 3.1 fWAR over the last three seasons, meaning the Blue Jays are valuing one WAR at $11.5 million. If Guerrero can post another five WAR season, he will do very well in free agency next year, especially as he’ll hit that mark in the middle of his prime.

November 3, 2024

Young Slugger

David Laurila at FanGraphs speaks with Bryce Eldridge, a young hitting prospect for the Giants. He talks about being a slugger and a complete hitter:

“Growing up, I kind of had a natural, sweet lefty swing,” he told me. “As I kept getting bigger I had to keep working at it, working with my coaches back home, working on trying to stay short. Consistency is the biggest key, especially for a guy my size. The more I can stay consistent with that stroke, the better it will be.”

And if you’re wondering, yes, he considers himself a power hitter.

“For sure,” Eldridge replied when asked if he identifies as such. “I think I’m a pretty complete hitter, although the strikeout numbers [132 this season] might point to me being a power hitter. Being able to put the ball in the air is my game. If I can get it in the air, it flies.”
FanGraphs.com

The two most interesting young sluggers in the majors right now are the juniors, Bobby Witt Jr.and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Both slugged over .500 in 2024 without striking out a ton. On top of that, they posted high BABIPs, which led to high batting averages. A high BABIP with a lot K rate and a decent number of home runs can lead to an extremely high batting average. Here is the list of players who hit at least .370 (technically, .3695) since 1941:

Season	First Name	Last Name	AB	BABIP	BA	BA to BABIP Ratio	HR	Ks	HR to K Ratio
1941	Ted	Williams	456	0.378	0.406	1.07	37	27	1.4
1994	Tony	Gwynn	419	0.389	0.394	1.01	12	19	0.6
1980	George	Brett	449	0.368	0.390	1.06	24	22	1.1
1957	Ted	Williams	420	0.367	0.388	1.06	38	43	0.9
1977	Rod	Carew	616	0.408	0.388	0.95	14	55	0.3
1999	Larry	Walker	438	0.363	0.379	1.04	37	52	0.7
1948	Stan	Musial	611	0.354	0.376	1.06	39	33	1.2
2000	Todd	Helton	580	0.357	0.372	1.04	42	61	0.7
2000	Nomar	Garciaparra	529	0.378	0.372	0.98	21	50	0.4
2004	Ichiro	Suzuki	704	0.399	0.372	0.93	8	63	0.1
1997	Tony	Gwynn	592	0.363	0.372	1.02	17	28	0.6
1993	Andres	Galarraga	470	0.399	0.370	0.93	22	73	0.3
1987	Tony	Gwynn	589	0.383	0.370	0.97	7	35	0.2
2002	Barry	Bonds	403	0.330	0.370	1.12	46	47	1.0

.370 BA since 1941

Ted Williams in 1941 was pretty amazing.

Note that hitters with a HR to K ratio over 0.6 then raise their BA over their BABIP. Witt and Guerrero both had a ratio of 0.3 in 2024. They each may be able to add ten home runs next season, but they are going to need to pull their Ks down quite a somewhere less than 70, to get the BA boost.

Also, I didn’t realize how strikeouts really hurt Galarraga in 1993, and how a lack of home runs hurt Ichiro in 2004 and Carew in 1997. All three had BABIPs near .400, but could not pull their batting averages near or over those BABIPs.

October 19, 2024

Best Batter Today

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers moved ahead of Aaron Judge of the Yankees in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Ohtani went two for four with a walk in the 12=6 Mets victory, while Judge singled and walked in the 8-6 win over the Guardians. Ohtani leads Judge by less than a point. So far, Ohtani hit much better in the post-season than Judge.

Juan Soto of the Yankees remained in fourth place after a home run and a walk. Soto is hitting like one would expect in the playoffs, but he has not been able to catch the idle Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for third place. Francisco Lindor of the Mets ranks fifth as he went two for four with a walk and a triple.

Andy Pages of the Dodgers posted the highest game score of the day, an 80. He hit two home runs and a single in four at bats, driving in four runs. Pages slugged just .407 in his rookie year, but power was probably his strongest suit as 37 of his 100 hits went for extra bases. At seasonal age 23, he has time to improve.

October 6, 2024

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge of the Yankees stays atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, but just barely. He drew a walk in five trips to the plate in a 6-5 win over the Royals. Meanwhile, Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers went two for five with a home run to close the gap with Judge to less than two points.

Judge’s teammate, Juan Soto, posted a three for five night with a double. He ranks fourth, four points behind the vacationing Vladimir Guerrero Jr.and six points ahead of Yordan Alvarez.

Three batters recorded game scores of 65, the highest on the day. David Fry of the Guardians went two for three with a walk and two RBI. He improved in his sophomore season, with 33 of his 88 hits going for extra bases. MJ Melendez of the Royals posted a two for four with a home run, matched in game score by Gleyber Torres of the Yankees, one for three with a home run and two walks. Melendez’s career slugging percentage of .397 doesn’t look like much, but his isolated power comes in at a healthy .176. Torres saw his home run power fall off from the last two seasons, but he would be a big help to the Yankees if it came back for their playoff run.

September 29, 2024

Best Batter Monday

The top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings did not change due to Sunday’s games. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees stand one and four respectively. Neither of them played in the 6-4 win over the Pirates. Second place Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers did play, and went one for four in a 2-1 win over the Rockies. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays drew two walls in four trips to the plate out of the leadoff slot as the Marlins finished their season with a 3-1 win. He remains in third place. The Astros game at the Guardians was rained out and will not be played, leaving Houston’s Yordan Alvarez in fifth place.

The best game score of the final day of the AL season ironically goes to Lenyn Sosa of the worst team in baseball, the White Sox. He posted a three for four day with a walk and a home run for a score of 76. He is a nice example of Chicago’s troubles. He posted his best season in the majors, but the White Sox managed to find 100 games for someone who hit .254/.283/.359.

September 29, 2024

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees continue to rank first and fourth in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Soto went one for three with two walks in a 9-4 Pirates win. Judge played poorly Saturday, going 0 for 5 with five strikeouts for the worst game score of the day, a 30. Combine that with second place Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers posting a two for five with a walk in a 13-2 win over the Rockies, and the gap between the two superstars narrowed to five points.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays holds third despite an 0 for 4 in an 8-1 Marlins win. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros continues to rest his injured knee, and continues to rank fifth.

Emmanuel Rivera of the Orioles posted a game score of 93, the best of the day, in a 9-2 win over the Twins. He went four for four with a walk, a double, and two home runs to raise his Orioles slash line to .323/.380/.597. It’s nice to see a journeyman like Rivera have a big day. For the season as a whole he is hitting .240/.314/.346. It’s the 25th game score of 90 or better in 2024. There were only sixteen such games in 2023, despite 2023 being a better season for offense overall.

September 28, 2024

Best Batter Today

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers, sitting second in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, closes the gap a bit with Aaron Judge of the Yankees. Ohtani ties for highest game score of the day with an 81 as he posts a four for five with a double and a home run in a n 11-4 win in Colorado. With Judge getting a day off Friday, Ohtani extends his MLB lead in extra base hits and total bases, cutting Judge’s lead in the rankings to about 12 points.

Ohtani’s game was matched by Xavier Edwards of the Marlins. His 81 came on a four for six with three triples. That set a Marlins record for triples in a game, and was the first three-triple game since 2014. Edwards now owns five career triples and one career home run. Also note that Miami manager Skip Schumaker will not manage the last two games of the season due to a family medical issue, and the players are acting like he won’t be back next season.

In that game, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays went two for four to hold third place. The Marlins took the game 15-5.

Fourth ranked Juan Soto of the Yankees did play and went one for three with a walk in a 4-2 Pirates win. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros, ranked fifth, once again sat out as Houston beat Cleveland 5-2. Note that a Yankees win today or a Guardians loss gives New York the best record in the AL. The Dodgers can also clinch the NL best record with a win or a Phillies loss.

September 27, 2024

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain in slots one and four in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Judge went one for two with two walks and a home run in the 10-1 win over the Orioles that gave the Yankees the AL East title. He and teammate Giancarlo Stanton both produced game score of 67. Adding a locked in Stanton to the duo of Judge and Soto makes the Yankees even more dangerous in the post season. Soto went one for four in the game. Judge, with home runs in five straight games has exactly three games left to tie the record of home runs in eight straight games.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers stayed in second place as he helped the Dodgers to a 7-2 win over the Padres to clinch the NL West title, finishing off the six division winners. Ohtani went 3 for 5 with a double. He leads the majors with 97 extra-base hits and 400 total bases. He is in the top five in the NL in doubles, triples, and home runs.

Third place Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays and fifth place Yordan Alvarez of the Astros had the day off.

The best game score of the day belonged to Carlos Correa of the Twins, a 72. He went three for five with a home run and two walks, but the Marlins took the game 8-6 in 13 innings. Miami scored three runs in the top of the 13th for the win that drops Minnesota three games back in the AL Wild Card race. The Twins hold the tie breakers against both the Royals and the Tigers, but they need to sweep this weekend and hope that either the Royals or the Tigers get swept. The Tigers are playing the White Sox, but the Royals are playing the Braves, also needing wins to stay in the NL Wild Card race. The Twins take on the Orioles.

September 26, 2024

Best Batter Today

Wednesday’s games brought no change to the top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and four respectively. Both batters went two for four with a walk and a home run in a 9-7 Orioles win. Baltimore keeps their AL East Championship hopes alive.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers ranks second after a two for three with a double and a walk in a 4-3 win over the Padres. That reduces the Dodgers magic number to two.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays remains third with a two for four, including a double, in a 6-1 win over the Red Sox.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros remained on the bench as the Mariners took an 8-1 win.

The best game score of the day belonged to Jose Ramirez of the Guardians. He missed the cycle by a single in posting a score of 79 in a 5-2 win over the Reds. The Guardians are now just 1/2 game behind the Yankees for best record in the AL.

September 25, 2024

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank first and fourth respectively in the Baseball Musing Batter Rankings. Judge walked and homered, while Soto singled in the 5-3 Orioles win. That clinches at least a wild card berth for Baltimore as the Astros beat the Mariners 4-3. In that game, fifth place Yordan Alvarez did not play. Jorge Polanco of the Mariners did play, and he went four for four with a home run for a game score of 79, the highest on the day. It wasn’t enough as Houston clinches the NL West. Four of the six AL playoff teams are accounted for.

The same is true in the NL. Second place Shohei Ohtani posted a one for three with a walk, but the Padres won the game 4-2 when they turned a Gary Gaetti special, a 5-4-3 walk off triple play. The Padres clinch a playoff slot and can still win the NL West.

Third place Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays goes one for four with a walk in a 6-5, ten inning, Red Sox win. All three of the top AL Wild card contenders won on Tuesday, making things a little bleak for the Red Sox.