Tag Archives: Nick Castellanos

October 3, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

It might be a good day to double down on the Reds. It’s also a good day for teams playing game that don’t effect the post-season races to trot out youngsters, so check the lineups!

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.326, 0.756 — Tim Anderson batting against Tyler Alexander.
  • 0.331, 0.745 — Michael Brantley batting against Cole Irvin.
  • 0.345, 0.738 — Nick Castellanos batting against Mitch Keller.
  • 0.321, 0.735 — Luis Robert batting against Tyler Alexander.
  • 0.297, 0.731 — Ketel Marte batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.280, 0.728 — Trea Turner batting against Aaron Ashby.
  • 0.315, 0.722 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Cole Irvin.
  • 0.306, 0.722 — Bo Bichette batting against Bruce Zimmermann.
  • 0.303, 0.711 — Byron Buxton batting against Jackson Kowar.
  • 0.306, 0.710 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Michael Wacha.

The NN values Keller’s poor pitching less than Log5. Anderson,Brantley, and Castellanos tie for the top spot, but Turner, Bichette, and Urshela are playing competitive games.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

October 1, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Brantley returned from the illjured list, going one for three Thursday night as the designated hitter. He’ll have the weekend to warm up for the post-season.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.306, 0.730 — Michael Brantley batting against Sean Manaea.
  • 0.286, 0.729 — Tim Anderson batting against Wily Peralta.
  • 0.285, 0.729 — Trea Turner batting against Eric Lauer.
  • 0.290, 0.725 — Ketel Marte batting against Jonathan Gray.
  • 0.292, 0.723 — Luis Robert batting against Wily Peralta.
  • 0.313, 0.721 — Nick Castellanos batting against Wil Crowe.
  • 0.299, 0.717 — Bo Bichette batting against Conner Greene.
  • 0.291, 0.705 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Sean Manaea.
  • 0.289, 0.697 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Conner Greene.
  • 0.288, 0.696 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Conner Greene.
  • 0.293, 0.696 — Austin Riley batting against Tylor Megill.

Brantley is the consensus first pick on a low probability day. Castellanos comes in second.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 23, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

The White Sox and Indians play a doubleheader today. I suspect that Robert and Anderson may not start both games. Also, seven innings provides less of an opportunity for players to collect a hit.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.349, 0.764 — Trea Turner batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.295, 0.735 — Tim Anderson batting against Aaron Civale.
  • 0.295, 0.733 — Tim Anderson batting against Zach Plesac.
  • 0.325, 0.728 — Nick Castellanos batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.301, 0.727 — Luis Robert batting against Aaron Civale.
  • 0.323, 0.727 — A.J. Pollock batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.302, 0.725 — Luis Robert batting against Zach Plesac.
  • 0.287, 0.722 — Michael Brantley batting against Alex Cobb.
  • 0.294, 0.713 — Bo Bichette batting against Michael Pineda.
  • 0.260, 0.712 — Ketel Marte batting against Charlie Morton.

Trea Turner and Castellanos are the consensus double down picks, Turner the only player with a very high probability of a hit today.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 15, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

The Log5 list indicates a good day for the Blue Jays against the Rays as Michael Wacha allowed a .286 BA this season with a low walk rate.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.348, 0.742 — Nick Castellanos batting against Mitch Keller.
  • 0.315, 0.740 — Trea Turner batting against Merrill Kelly.
  • 0.301, 0.737 — Tim Anderson batting against Janson Junk.
  • 0.328, 0.733 — Bo Bichette batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.332, 0.733 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.298, 0.725 — Michael Brantley batting against Kohei Arihara.
  • 0.324, 0.724 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.285, 0.723 — Ketel Marte batting against Julio Urias.
  • 0.319, 0.722 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.304, 0.720 — Luis Robert batting against Janson Junk.

Tim Anderson is back from the disabled list and is always someone you want to consider for a pick. Both systems agree on Castellanos as the top choice, with Bichette and Hernandez the consensus second picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 12, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Brantley hasn’t made the top of the list for a while. He’s hitting .312 with a .333 OBP in September, so I suspect his hit average went up a bit.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.336, 0.747 — Michael Brantley batting against Jaime Barria.
  • 0.329, 0.731 — Nick Castellanos batting against J.A. Happ.
  • 0.286, 0.722 — Ketel Marte batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.264, 0.711 — Trea Turner batting against Blake Snell.
  • 0.310, 0.710 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jaime Barria.
  • 0.281, 0.707 — Luis Robert batting against Nick Pivetta.
  • 0.295, 0.705 — Cedric Mullins II batting against Steven Matz.
  • 0.306, 0.705 — Kyle Tucker batting against Jaime Barria.
  • 0.277, 0.703 — Bo Bichette batting against Zac Lowther.
  • 0.306, 0.702 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Patrick Corbin.

The systems agree on Brantley and Castellanos as the double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 10, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Castellanos hits Lester well, seven for sixteen with with three home runs, one walk and two strikeouts.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.339, 0.739 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jon Lester.
  • 0.309, 0.738 — Ketel Marte batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.330, 0.735 — Harold Castro batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.267, 0.716 — Trea Turner batting against Joe Musgrove.
  • 0.300, 0.715 — Luis Arraez batting against Daniel Lynch.
  • 0.316, 0.713 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.303, 0.702 — Buster Posey batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.302, 0.700 — Victor Reyes batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.280, 0.698 — Luis Robert batting against Tanner Houck.
  • 0.270, 0.697 — Starling Marte batting against Glenn Otto Jr..

Castellanos and Marte are a great double down pair, but Castro is the consensus second pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 8, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Harold Castro has been popping up a lot lately. Career, he owns a .294 BA with a .318 OBP, so his hit average is high. He’s not going to go hitless in a game because he drew three walks.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.308, 0.742 — Ketel Marte batting against Kohei Arihara.
  • 0.311, 0.734 — Michael Brantley batting against Tyler Anderson.
  • 0.329, 0.732 — Harold Castro batting against Mitch Keller.
  • 0.325, 0.730 — Nick Castellanos batting against Alec Mills.
  • 0.324, 0.728 — Salvador Perez batting against Matt Harvey.
  • 0.283, 0.724 — Trea Turner batting against Adam Wainwright.
  • 0.315, 0.720 — Hanser Alberto batting against Matt Harvey.
  • 0.318, 0.719 — Whit Merrifield batting against Matt Harvey.
  • 0.304, 0.716 — Starling Marte batting against Dallas Keuchel.
  • 0.318, 0.713 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Mitch Keller.

Castro and Castellanos are the consensus double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 7, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

As a catcher, Posey is a tough pick as he tends to get more days off than other players. On the other hand, the Giants are locked in a tight division race, so they’ll want Posey’s bat in the game as much as possible. It looks like there are plenty of other Giants who might fit the bill.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.340, 0.753 — Trea Turner batting against J.A. Happ.
  • 0.305, 0.744 — Ketel Marte batting against Spencer Howard.
  • 0.309, 0.728 — Nick Castellanos batting against Adrian Sampson.
  • 0.298, 0.724 — Michael Brantley batting against Logan Gilbert.
  • 0.319, 0.719 — Buster Posey batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
  • 0.286, 0.707 — Harold Castro batting against Dillon Peters.
  • 0.290, 0.707 — Starling Marte batting against Jimmy Lambert.
  • 0.273, 0.703 — Luis Arraez batting against Aaron Civale.
  • 0.288, 0.703 — Salvador Perez batting against Alex Wells.
  • 0.284, 0.700 — Cedric Mullins II batting against Jackson Kowar.

Turner is the unanimous first choice, with Ketel Marte and Castellanos tied for the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 1, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

You can double down on Nick Castellanos today, as the Reds and Cardinals play a doubleheader. Seven inning games, however, provide less of an opportunity for hits.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.322, 0.747 — Tim Anderson batting against Max Kranick.
  • 0.310, 0.739 — Trea Turner batting against Max Fried.
  • 0.284, 0.733 — Ketel Marte batting against Yu Darvish.
  • 0.328, 0.730 — Bo Bichette batting against Matt Harvey.
  • 0.328, 0.725 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Matt Harvey.
  • 0.301, 0.724 — Michael Brantley batting against Logan Gilbert.
  • 0.319, 0.722 — Nick Castellanos batting against J.A. Happ.
  • 0.324, 0.720 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Matt Harvey.
  • 0.303, 0.719 — Nick Castellanos batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.314, 0.711 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Matt Harvey.

Anderson is not on the illjured list, but has not started much lately as the White Sox try to save his legs for the playoffs. Blue Jays Bichette and Hernandez are the consensus top picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 30, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Marte is 7 for 13 against Paddack with one walk and one strikeout.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.353, 0.770 — Ketel Marte batting against Chris Paddack.
  • 0.330, 0.750 — Trea Turner batting against Drew Smyly.
  • 0.350, 0.744 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jon Lester.
  • 0.327, 0.741 — Michael Brantley batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.305, 0.712 — A.J. Pollock batting against Drew Smyly.
  • 0.302, 0.706 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Jose Quintana.
  • 0.303, 0.705 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.301, 0.701 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.313, 0.698 — Tyler Naquin batting against Jon Lester.
  • 0.267, 0.698 — Luis Arraez batting against Casey Mize.

The two systems agree on Marte as the top pick, with Turner and Castellanos tied for the consensus second pick. Castellanos is 7 for 14 against Lester with three home runs and one strikeout.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 17, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Note that the Red Sox play a split admission doubleheader at the Yankees today, so be careful picking from those games. Brantley leads the AL in batting average, with Gurriel and Hernandez also in the top five. Turner leads the NL, with Castellanos and Reynolds also in the top five.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.325, 0.750 — Michael Brantley batting against Daniel Lynch.
  • 0.298, 0.746 — Ketel Marte batting against Kyle Gibson.
  • 0.313, 0.738 — Trea Turner batting against Wil Crowe.
  • 0.309, 0.732 — Luis Arraez batting against Elijah Morgan.
  • 0.321, 0.724 — Nick Castellanos batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.270, 0.720 — Tim Anderson batting against Chris Bassitt.
  • 0.300, 0.717 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Erick Fedde.
  • 0.275, 0.705 — David Fletcher batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.284, 0.704 — Buster Posey batting against Marcus Stroman.
  • 0.286, 0.704 — Bo Bichette batting against Erick Fedde.

Both systems agree on Brantley, with Turner the consensus double down choice. Castellanos owns a four for thirteen against Hendricks, with a walk and no strikeouts. The match-up leads to balls in play.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 9, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

There are only five games scheduled Monday night. Hentges owns a .410 BABIP this season, and the Reds start a number of very good hitters, so they dominate the top ten of the Log5 list.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.343, 0.735 — Nick Castellanos batting against Sam D Hentges.
  • 0.297, 0.732 — Tim Anderson batting against Beau Burrows.
  • 0.323, 0.710 — Jesse Winker batting against Sam D Hentges.
  • 0.269, 0.708 — Luis Arraez batting against Lucas Giolito.
  • 0.267, 0.692 — Salvador Perez batting against Jameson Taillon.
  • 0.291, 0.684 — Kolten Wong batting against Alec Mills.
  • 0.258, 0.681 — Hanser Alberto batting against Jameson Taillon.
  • 0.247, 0.681 — Adam Frazier batting against Zach Thompson.
  • 0.245, 0.676 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Carlos Hernandez.
  • 0.295, 0.673 — Kyle Farmer batting against Sam D Hentges.

This list is less Reds centric, but Castellanos remains on top. Anderson and Winker tie for the consensus second pick.

Note that there are not too many days left in the season. If you are going to reach 57 games, starting from zero, you’ll need to start doubling down for at least a few games.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 7, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Brantley leads the majors in batting average with a .332 mark, while Castellanos leads the NL with a .323 BA.

Here are the NN picks:

Trea Turner came off the COVID IL on Friday, so he is available again. Marte owns better long and short term hit averages than Brantley, so the difference today lies in the pitchers. Brantley is the unanimous first choice, with Castellanos the consensus second pick.

Note that the Red Sox and Blue Jays play a double header today, so be careful when picking from those games.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 23, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 picks:

I have included Castellanos as he is not yet on the disabled list, but he is expected to miss time with a wrist injury. Trea Turner gets a good match-up, as Lopez owns a .330 career opposition BABIP, and the measure is at .355 this season.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.347, 0.758 — Trea Turner batting against Jorge Lopez.
  • 0.342, 0.749 — David Fletcher batting against J.A. Happ.
  • 0.337, 0.741 — Nick Castellanos batting against Wade LeBlanc.
  • 0.330, 0.740 — Jose Iglesias batting against J.A. Happ.
  • 0.301, 0.735 — Michael Brantley batting against Kolby Allard.
  • 0.325, 0.725 — Cedric Mullins II batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.322, 0.724 — Adam Frazier batting against Johnny Cueto.
  • 0.330, 0.719 — Justin Turner batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
  • 0.315, 0.713 — Raimel Tapia batting against David Price.
  • 0.301, 0.711 — Jean Segura batting against Max Fried.
  • 0.280, 0.711 — Luis Arraez batting against Alex Cobb.

The two systems agree on Trea Turner and David Fletcher as the double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 5, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Posey injured his thumb but is not on the disabled list. Lester owns a low strikeout rate this season, and many of those balls in play are falling for hits, hence the prevalence of Padres on the list. Machado is five for fifteen against Lester in his career, striking out just once.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.310, 0.738 — Tim Anderson batting against Bailey Ober.
  • 0.307, 0.726 — Nick Castellanos batting against Mike Minor.
  • 0.292, 0.722 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jose Suarez.
  • 0.301, 0.716 — Jose Iglesias batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.320, 0.713 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Jon Lester.
  • 0.300, 0.710 — David Fletcher batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.283, 0.703 — Jean Segura batting against Zach Davies.
  • 0.249, 0.703 — Trea Turner batting against Joe Musgrove.
  • 0.291, 0.701 — Adam Frazier batting against Max Fried.
  • 0.287, 0.698 — Buster Posey batting against Kwang-hyun Kim.

The NN discounts Lester’s poor 2021 season more than the Log5 Method. Anderson comes out on top here, and is the consensus first pick. Castellanos is the consensus second pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 4, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

The Astros are being careful with Brantley, as he did not start on Saturday. While a great hitter, Brantley has a history of injuries, so keeping him healthy is important.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.344, 0.760 — Michael Brantley batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.332, 0.737 — Nick Castellanos batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.304, 0.732 — Tim Anderson batting against Matt Manning.
  • 0.296, 0.728 — Trea Turner batting against Edwin Uceta.
  • 0.299, 0.719 — Jose Iglesias batting against Tom Eshelman.
  • 0.318, 0.715 — Nelson Cruz batting against Brad Keller.
  • 0.307, 0.710 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.295, 0.710 — Bo Bichette batting against Ryan Yarbrough.
  • 0.308, 0.709 — Luis Arraez batting against Brad Keller.
  • 0.295, 0.708 — David Fletcher batting against Tom Eshelman.
  • 0.287, 0.708 — Jean Segura batting against Blake Snell.

It’s another Brantley day, with Nick Castellanos the double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 2, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Brantley posted another big game Thursday night, three for five with a double as he returned to his former home in Cleveland. His career BA is now at .299, so a few more games like that and he can push that back over .300.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.368, 0.770 — Michael Brantley batting against Sam Hentges.
  • 0.339, 0.741 — Nick Castellanos batting against Alec Mills.
  • 0.317, 0.731 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Frankie Montas.
  • 0.296, 0.727 — Trea Turner batting against Julio Urias.
  • 0.312, 0.724 — Jose Iglesias batting against Keegan Akin.
  • 0.316, 0.722 — Jean Segura batting against Chris Paddack.
  • 0.275, 0.716 — Tim Anderson batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.310, 0.715 — Adam Frazier batting against Adrian Houser.
  • 0.324, 0.715 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Sam Hentges.
  • 0.309, 0.714 — David Fletcher batting against Keegan Akin.
  • 0.321, 0.714 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Sam Hentges.

Both systems agree on the top two, Brantley the first pick and Castellanos the double down. The double down probability on those two would be 0.57. I look at the game as “survive until tomorrow,” so I tend to go with a single pick once the streak reaches a reasonable length. The advantage of the successful double down, of course, is that you need fewer days to survive. Castellanos is hitting .410 at home.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 24, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Brantley and Castellanos own the top two batting averages in MLB, each leading their respective leagues. Winker stands fourth, Bogaerts sixth as the top hitters are in action on a day with a limited schedule.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.360, 0.774 — Michael Brantley batting against Jose Urena.
  • 0.359, 0.752 — Nick Castellanos batting against Josh Tomlin.
  • 0.344, 0.746 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.347, 0.737 — Jesse Winker batting against Josh Tomlin.
  • 0.317, 0.722 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Jose Urena.
  • 0.316, 0.717 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jose Urena.
  • 0.319, 0.717 — Alex Verdugo batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.324, 0.713 — J.D. Martinez batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.315, 0.711 — Rafael Devers batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.264, 0.709 — Trea Turner batting against Cody Poteet.

There’s very good agreement between the lists. Note that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also hitting .340 on the season, is just off each list at 11.

Brantley’s .774 probability is the highest for the NN this season. Brantley’s hit average (hits/PA) stands at .328 in 2021, which is an amazing number. There are only three players with at least 200 PA over .300; Castellanos stands at .312 and Jean Segura at .305. In a down year with the position player average just .315, Brantley really stands out.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 18, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

I have not seen Narvaez very often in the top ten. The Brewers catcher walks quite a bit and strikes out quite a bit, which would lead me to believe he is a poor choice for advancing a batting streak despite a good batting average. He is hitting .315/.408/.490 this season, and the game is in Colorado.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.314, 0.730 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jose Urena.
  • 0.306, 0.728 — Trea Turner batting against Joey Lucchesi.
  • 0.314, 0.727 — Nick Castellanos batting against Chris Paddack.
  • 0.300, 0.721 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jackson Kowar.
  • 0.262, 0.718 — Tim Anderson batting against Luis Garcia.
  • 0.315, 0.715 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Bruce Zimmermann.
  • 0.307, 0.713 — Bo Bichette batting against Bruce Zimmermann.
  • 0.308, 0.709 — Luis Arraez batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
  • 0.283, 0.707 — Buster Posey batting against Vincent Velasquez.
  • 0.299, 0.707 — Jesse Winker batting against Chris Paddack.

I’m not sure I’ve seen someone show up at the top of the Log5 and not make the top ten of the NN. In reality, Jean Segura would be at the top of both lists, but he is currently on the illjured list. Iglesias and Castellanos are the consensus first and second picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 15, 2021

Best Batter Today

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr of the Blue Jays continues to pull away from the pack in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He provides the only offense in the Red Sox 2-1 victory, going two for four with his twenty second home run of the season. Matt Olson of the Athletics tried to keep pace with a single and a walk in an 8-5 win over the Angels. He stands 14 points back in second place.

Jesse Winker of the Reds sits seven points back in third place after a collecting a single and a walk in a 10-2 win over the Brewers. His teammate, Nick Castellanos takes fourth place as he singles in five trips.

Carlos Correa of the Astros rounds out the top five. Houston had the night off, but 0 for 4s by Marcus Semien and Fernando Tatis Jr drop them in the rankings.

The highest game score on Monday belonged to Sean Murphy of the Athletics. Murphy reached base all four times he came to the plate with a single, home run, and two hit by pitches for a 75. He is only hitting .217 on the season, but with eighteen walks and nine hit by pitches, his OBP is a decent .317.

June 14, 2021

Best Batter Today

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays goes three for five Sunday afternoon against the Red Sox to extend his lead in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. The three hits included his twenty first home run, leading the majors. His teammate, Marcus Semien, went two for four with his fifteenth home run and a sacrifice fly to rank fourth. Semien should challenge his career high of 33 home runs hit in 2019. The Blue Jays blow out the Red Sox 18-4.

Matt Olson of the Athletics hits two home runs in four trips as Oakland beats Kansas City 6-3. Olson puts some space between him and the pack as he sits seven points ahead of third place.

Two Reds players third and fifth place. Jesse Winker goes two for three with two doubles and a hit by pitch for third place, and Nick Castellanos goes one for four with a double for fifth place. The Reds beat the Rockies 6-2.

The highest game score of the day goes to Bo Bichette of the Blue Jays. He goes four for five with a walk, a double, and a home run for a game score of 83. He ranks 45th overall.

June 13, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Since the start of the 2017 season, Senzatela owns a 6.09 K per 9 IP, the fourth lowest in the majors among pitcher with 400 innings. With a high BABIP allowed this season and a low walk rate, batters put the ball in play against him rather successfully.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.376, 0.765 — Nick Castellanos batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.352, 0.738 — Jesse Winker batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.325, 0.734 — Trea Turner batting against Johnny Cueto.
  • 0.292, 0.725 — Ketel Marte batting against Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.290, 0.723 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Pineda.
  • 0.274, 0.720 — Tim Anderson batting against Kyle Funkhouser.
  • 0.287, 0.714 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Robbie Ray.
  • 0.301, 0.711 — Adam Frazier batting against Adrian Houser.
  • 0.290, 0.709 — Buster Posey batting against Joe Ross.
  • 0.301, 0.708 — Starling Marte batting against Drew Smyly.
  • 0.277, 0.708 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jon Duplantier.

The two systems are in perfect agreement on the top three, and it looks like a good day to double down on the two Reds hitters, Castellanos and Winker.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 13, 2021

Best Batter Today

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The games of Saturday shake up the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings a bit. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays stays on top with a home run and two walks in four plate appearances as Toronto beats Boston 7-2. Guerrero now leads by 12 just under 12 points as he is the first player to reach twenty home runs in the 2021 season. His teammate, Marcus Semien, goes one for five and sits in fifth place.

Matt Olson of the Athletics records the highest game score of the day, an 80. He post a four for five day with a double and a home run as the Athletic beat the Royals 11-2. It was a good day for Oakland Matts as Matt Chapman collects three hits, including a double and a home run for a game score of 73, second highest on the day.

Third place goes to Nick Castellanos of the Reds. His two for five with a double helps down Colorado 10-3. Jose Ramirez of the Indians stands in fourth place after a single and a walk in a 5-4, extra-inning victory over Seattle.

Slots two through twelve in the Rankings are separated by ten points, so expect more shuffling of the order.

June 12, 2021

Best Batter Today

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Jose Ramirez of the Indians makes a return to the top five in today’s Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Ramirez goes three for for three with a double and two walks to move into third place. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays remains in first place with a big night in Boston, three for four with a double, home run, and a walk. He now leads the majors with 19 home runs. His teammate, Marcus Semien, posts a two for four night with a walk and sits in fourth place. Despite the two good offensive games, the Red Sox win 6-5 on a walk-off single.

Nick Castellanos of the Reds continued his hot hitting, going two for three with a home run and a walk in an 11-5 win over the Rockies. He’s now batting .362 and sits in second place in the rankings. Fifth place goes to his teammate, Jesse Winker, who singled and walked in five trips. He’s batting .344.

The highest game score of the night goes to veteran catcher Kurt Suzuki of the Angels. Suzuki posts a three for three night with a home run and two hit by pitches before being lifted for a pinch runner due to the second HBP. That was good for an 80 as the Diamondbacks fall 6-5 in ten innings.

June 11, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Castellanos and Winker both own high batting averages and OBPs, but don’t draw a ton of walks. Since their OPBs are made mostly of hits, they are very good candidates for advancing a hit streak.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.347, 0.753 — Nick Castellanos batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.334, 0.741 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Ross Stripling.
  • 0.334, 0.737 — Jesse Winker batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.315, 0.728 — Michael Brantley batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
  • 0.291, 0.727 — Tim Anderson batting against Tarik Skubal.
  • 0.309, 0.725 — Jose Iglesias batting against Merrill Kelly.
  • 0.284, 0.715 — Trea Turner batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
  • 0.309, 0.713 — Alex Verdugo batting against Ross Stripling.
  • 0.304, 0.712 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
  • 0.301, 0.709 — Hanser Alberto batting against Cole Irvin.

Castellanos boasts a .326 hit average this season (Hits/PA), which is amazing. His is the unanimous first pick, with Winker and Bogaerts tied for consensus second pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 9, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Castellanos and Winker stand 1-2 in the NL in batting average, making them a great nightly double down duo. Anderson is a low strikeout, low walk pitcher, so they should make some contact against him. Anderson also gives up home runs, and with the game in Cincinnati, that could be a factor as well.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.361, 0.754 — Nick Castellanos batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.321, 0.742 — Ketel Marte batting against Sean Manaea.
  • 0.350, 0.742 — Jesse Winker batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.283, 0.726 — Tim Anderson batting against Alek Manoah.
  • 0.307, 0.725 — Michael Brantley batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
  • 0.323, 0.722 — Harold Castro batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.297, 0.720 — Trea Turner batting against Shane McClanahan.
  • 0.295, 0.719 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jake Odorizzi.
  • 0.306, 0.716 — Jose Iglesias batting against Brad Keller.
  • 0.302, 0.711 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Nathan Eovaldi.

The two systems are unanimous on Castellanos, and both like Winker as well. Marte could have a good day as well, as opponents are hanging a .326 BABIP on Manaea this season.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 8, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Lyles is getting hit hard for both average and power this season, allowing a .333 BABIP and 1.62 home runs per nine innings. It’s not surprising that Posey, having a great year at the plate, pops to the top of this list. Castellanos tries to get a new streak going after his long streak ended Sunday.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.319, 0.734 — Nick Castellanos batting against Adrian Houser.
  • 0.295, 0.731 — Tim Anderson batting against Robbie Ray.
  • 0.311, 0.723 — Jesse Winker batting against Adrian Houser.
  • 0.328, 0.722 — Buster Posey batting against Jordan Lyles.
  • 0.276, 0.720 — Ketel Marte batting against Chris Bassitt.
  • 0.307, 0.712 — Jean Segura batting against Drew Smyly.
  • 0.306, 0.711 — Donovan Solano batting against Jordan Lyles.
  • 0.275, 0.708 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Framber Valdez.
  • 0.311, 0.706 — Starling Marte batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.281, 0.698 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Martin Perez.

Castellanos and Winker have a chance to go down as one of the great single season hitting duos. Both have batting averages over .350, OBPs over .410, and slugging averages over .625. They are not Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig in 1927, but given how offense fell this season, they are extremely impressive.

Castellanos is the consensus first pick, with Posey the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 6, 2021

Best Batter Today

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The top hitters continue to jockey for position in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays takes over the top slot as he posts a three for four game with a home run to help beat the Astros 6-2. His teammate, Marcus Semien, goes two for four with a double in the same game and sits in third place.

Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres provides some of the only offense against the Mets and Jacob deGrom Saturday night. Tatis goes one for three with a double and a walk, to drop to second place as the Mets take the game 4-0. deGrom pitched seven shutout innings to lower his ERA to 0.62. Tatis’s walk was the only one deGrom allowed as he struck out eleven.

Nick Castellanos of the Reds extended his hit streak to twenty one games with a two for five day in a 5-2 win over the Cardinals to move into fourth place. Matt Olson of the Athletics takes over fifth place as he homers and walks in a 6-3 over the Rockies in Colorado.

Cedric Mullins II of the Orioles posted a game to remember as he goes five for five with two home runs for a game score of 91, the highest earned on Saturday. Mullins has blossomed this year in is seasonal age 26 season, with a .379 OBP and a .511 slugging percentage.

June 5, 2021

Best Batter Today

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Friday night shakes up the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. The Padres can gloat about their long-term signing as Fernando Tatis Jr.takes over the top slot. He goes one for four in a 2-0 win over the Mets. Marcus Semien and Vladimir Guerrero both take he collar in a 13-1 Astros victory, Zack Greinke pitching an outstanding game where he allowed just six hits as the Blue Jays put the ball in play against him. Semien holds second place while Guerrero drops to third with an 0 for 3 as he got a PA off in the blow out.

Nick Castellanos of the Reds jumps to fourth place as he extends his hit streak to twenty games with two doubles and a walk in a 6-4 win over the Cardinals. Max Muncy of the Dodgers drops to fifth place as he goes 0 for 2 in a 9-5 win over the Braves. Muncy left the game early with an ankle injury, so keep an eye on his status.

Jonathan Schoop of the Tigers posted a career night at the plate, going four for four with a walk, a double, and two home runs for a game score of 94, the highest of the evening. The White Sox take the game 9-8, however. Schoop raises his 2021 slash line to .261/.312/.433

June 2, 2021

Best Batter Today

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There is a new number one in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, and the top four stand separated by just six points. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays moves into the top slot after a big game against the Marlins. In Buffalo, Guerrero goes four for four with a double and a home run for a game score of 82. That ties for best game score of the day with Andrew McCutchen of the Phillies who goes two for three with two home runs and two walks in a 17-3 drubbing of the Reds.

Guerrero’s teammate, Marcus Semien, posts a two for four night in the 5-1 win to grab third place.

Max Muncy of the Dodgers slips into second place after a drawing a walk in four trips in a 3-2 Cardinals victory. Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres goes 0 for 3 against the Cubs, dropping to fourth place. Tatis left the game early due to oblique tightness that occurred on a swing. Tatis’s number are even more impressive given the number of games he missed this season.

Nick Castellanos of the Reds rounds out the top five as he squeezes by Kris Bryant of the Cubs. Castellanos went two for three with a double to extend his hit streak to 18 games.