The Astros visit the Royals as the second ALDS gets underway in Kansas City Thursday night. Like the Mets and Dodgers, these are two evenly match teams. I had to go out to a second decimal place to show the slight difference in runs per game. Houston posted both a better ERA and a better runs allowed per game. That should make you wonder if the Royals were really nine games better than the Astros. The Pythagorean projects for Kansas City was 90 wins, 93 for Houston. Based on that, maybe Houston should be the favorite in the series. The difference between the two teams comes from their record in one-run games. The Royals went 23-17, while the Astros were 21-29.
Team Offense, (AL Ranks)
| Statistic |
Houston Astros |
Kansas City Royals |
| Runs/Game |
4.50 (5th) |
4.47 (6th) |
| Batting Avg. |
.250 (10th) |
.269 (2nd) |
| OBP |
.315 (8th) |
.322 (7th) |
| Slugging Pct. |
.437 (2nd) |
.412 (8th) |
| Home Runs |
230 (2nd) |
139 (14th) |
| Stolen Base % |
72% (5th) |
75% (3rd) |
The two offenses are even in terms of runs per game, but the teams get to the same place in different ways. The Royals own a high batting average, but don’t leverage that into a high OBP nor a high slugging percentage. This is a singles and doubles hitting team. They get a lot of both, however, because they don’t strike out as an offense. Kansas City batters struck out just 973 times in 2015, the only AL team to strike out less that 1100 times. The Royals batters also walked the least in the league. They put the ball in play a lot, and get hits out of those balls in play.
The Astros own a low batting average, but there is less of a gap between the OBP of the two teams. Houston was fifth in drawing walks. The big driver for their run scoring is power, with the second highest total of home runs and the second highest slugging percentage. They Royals move runners with long sequences of hits, while the Astros depend on short sequences, often ending in a home run. As a power hitting team, Houston batters strike out a lot, the most in the AL. They accumulated over 400 more K than the Royals.
The Astros are more of an all-or-nothing offense, which is a reason they can be shutdown and lose close games. The Royals ability to put the ball in play, and their good base running, helps push extra runs home.
Team Pitching, (AL Ranks)
| Statistic |
Houston Astros |
Kansas City Royals |
| Earned Run Avg. |
3.57 (1st) |
3.73 (3rd) |
| Runs Allowed/Game |
3.81 (1st) |
3.96 (3rd) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP |
8.0 (5th) |
7.2 (11th) |
| Walks per 9 IP |
2.6 (2nd) |
3.0 (8th) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP |
20.5 (1st) |
21.3 (2nd) |
| BABIP |
.287 (3rd) |
.288 (4th) |
Astros pitchers were simply better in all three-true outcomes than the Royals, resulting in a lower ERA. The Astros staff does not match-up well against the Royals hitters, however. The Houston staff owns two big strengths, the abilities to prevent walks and home runs. They Royals neither walk nor hit home runs often. The Astros can’t take away those aspects of the Royals game, because it’s not a huge part of their offense.
On the opposite side, the Royals strength as a staff is preventing home runs, and that’s the biggest driver of the Houston offense. If a pitching staff could take walks and home runs away from the Astros, Houston is left with a poor hitting team. If you take them away from the Royals, what’s left is a team that still can generate long sequences of hits.
So I am going with the Royals in the series, much as I would like to see a Texas team get a shot at a World Series title. The Astros look like the better team, but the Royals strengths are perfect for neutralizing the Astros strengths. It also doesn’t hurt that the Royals only see Dallas Keuchel once. I pick the Royals with a 58% chance of winning the series.