Derrek Lee hopes to add some power to the Orioles lineup. Photo: Icon SMI
The series on team offense continues with the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles finished twenty seventh in the majors and thirteenth in the American League in offense last season, scoring 3.78 runs per game.
The CBSSportsline probable batting order gives us a feel for the type of lineup Buck Showalter is likely to use. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:
- Best lineup: 5.08 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 5.05 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 4.88 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.64 runs per game
The Marcels show a lot of potential for this lineup, but there’s a great deal of uncertainty surrounding this offense as well. Brian Roberts and Derrek Lee continue to be less than 100% healthy as they work through spring training. Mark Reynolds should bounce back from his poor 2010, but that is not a given.
On the other hand, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters should be better with another year of major league service under their belts. Luke Scott may not regress as far from his career year last season as the projections estimate. The best case scenario is that the three question marks live up to their projections while the youngsters actually improve. The do have Buck Showalter managing a full year, and Buck is very good at putting players in situations where they can succeed.
My guess is that five runs per game is a very optimistic projection for the offense. I think Baltimore would be very happy with adding half a run per game above their 2010 level. That would make them eight wins better without an improvement on the pitching side, and at least takes them to a respectable winning percentage.
You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.
Previous articles in this series:
- New York Yankees
- Boston Red Sox
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Cincinnati Reds
- Texas Rangers
- Minnesota Twins
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Colorado Rockies
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Chicago White Sox
- Detroit Tigers
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Atlanta Braves
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Florida Marlins
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- San Francisco Giants
- Chicago Cubs
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Kansas City Royals
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- San Diego Padres
- Oakland Athletics
- New York Mets
- Washington Nationals
- Cleveland Indians
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I don’t get something here.
You write that the O’s averaged 3.78 runs last year. The worst lineup has them at 4.88. Isn’t that more than a run a game (not just a half run a game)? Or are you assuming that a lot of optimism goes into that 4.88, and it will be more like 4.5?
David » Yes, I’m making that assumption.