Joey Votto's MVP season helped the Reds lead the National League in runs scored in 2010. Photo: Icon SMI
The series on team offense continues with the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds finished fourth in the majors and first in the National League in offense last season, scoring 4.88 runs per game. The good Reds offense happened despite my criticism of Dusty Baker’s lineup choices at the start of the 2010 season.
The CBSSportsline probable batting order gives us a feel for the type of lineup Dusty Baker is likely to use. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:
- Best lineup: 4.73 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 4.51 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 4.22 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.23 runs per game
Dusty comes closer to the best lineup this season, but there seems to be room for improvement. Unlike in 2010, however, the improvements are not so obvious. The LAT likes Joey Votto in the leadoff slot, but I don’t expect any manager to make a move that radical. One problem stems from the fact that the Reds don’t employee a classic leadoff hitter, with a high OBP and a low slugging percentage. The better sluggers on the team don’t do that great a job of getting on base either. I would probably flip Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips, but that only increases runs per game to 4.53, which hardly seems worth it. The only way for Baker to get more out of his batting order is to go radical. That’s not going to happen.
You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.
Previous articles in this series:
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