It was a very good night in the National League for the six way tie that is the center piece of the Massive Tie Scenario. The Cardinals, Rockies and Giants all won, knocking off the Braves and Padres. A massive tie between those teams and the Phillies can still happen at 94 wins.
- St. Louis Cardinals 21-3
- Colorado Rockies 18-4
- San Francisco Giants 15-6
- Atlanta Braves 14-7
- San Diego Padres 15-8
- Philadelphia Phillies 13-8
I like this particular scenario because no team has to play poorly for it to happen. There are also a number of subsets that result in massive ties as well, the top four teams, for example, or the four wild card teams.
The American League isn’t doing so well, with the White Sox losing yesterday, the only team of the five to play.
- Chicago White Sox 20-2
- Boston Red Sox 19-3
- Minnesota Twins 14-8
- Tampa Bay Rays 13-10
- New York Yankees 10-12
This scenario had a chance of falling apart very quickly, and it is as you can see in the updated graph:
Let me point out that these odds are a bit higher than they should be. It does not take into account that certain head to head series have limited outcomes. With the Phillies ending the season against the Braves and the Giants playing the Padres (both three game series), the team need to go into those series 1 or 3 games back to have a chance at a tie.
Unlike in the NL, the top team in the AL needs a losing record for the tie to work. The White Sox get to play the Royals this weekend, and they really need to sweep Kansas City. With only three games left against Minnesota, Chicago needs some help as well.
The results for today that would help along these scenarios are as follows:
- Minnesota loses to Cleveland
- Tampa Bay drops a game to Toronto
- Philadelphia falls to the New York Mets
- St. Louis beats Atlanta
- The New York Yankees lose to Texas
- The Chicago White Sox defeat Kansas City
- Colorado downs Arizona
- Boston wins over Oakland
- San Francisco defeats San Diego (although SD winning isn’t bad)