For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.309, 0.701 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting at Bradley Blalock.
- 0.304, 0.694 — Nicholas Kurtz batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.300, 0.700 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Brandon Young.
- 0.298, 0.731 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Andre Pallante.
- 0.297, 0.685 — Nick Gonzales batting at Bradley Blalock.
- 0.296, 0.710 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Chris Bassitt.
- 0.293, 0.677 — Tommy Pham batting at Bradley Blalock.
- 0.293, 0.695 — Lenyn Sosa batting at Jack Kochanowicz.
- 0.292, 0.684 — Brent Rooker batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.289, 0.675 — Austin Wynns batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
Kiner-Falefa comes into the game in Colorado with a modest five-game hit streak, eight for his last 20.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.298, 0.731 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Andre Pallante.
- 0.296, 0.710 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Chris Bassitt.
- 0.287, 0.704 — Jeremy Pena batting at Lucas Giolito.
- 0.309, 0.701 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting at Bradley Blalock.
- 0.300, 0.700 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Brandon Young.
- 0.293, 0.695 — Lenyn Sosa batting at Jack Kochanowicz.
- 0.304, 0.694 — Nicholas Kurtz batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.286, 0.692 — Jose Ramirez batting vs. Jose Urena.
- 0.276, 0.691 — Trea Turner batting vs. Charlie Morton.
- 0.277, 0.689 — Manny Machado batting vs. Andre Pallante.
Arraez extended his hit streak to 15 games Saturday night, which according to the broadcast is the longest of his career. He walked four times and struck out once during this streak, consisting of 67 PA. Arraez’s ability to put the ball in play makes him an excellent choice any day to extend a hit streak, yet 15 is his career best. I think that’s a good example of just how difficult extending a streak can be, and how much luck is involved. Machado owns the second longest streak in the majors right now at ten games.
Turner is just three for 20 against Morton.
Kiner-Falefa and Arraez tie for the consensus top pick.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!