For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.340, 0.719 — Gunnar Henderson batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.334, 0.714 — Ryan O’Hearn batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.332, 0.712 — Jordan Westburg batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.332, 0.707 — Ramon Laureano batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.326, 0.697 — Jackson Holliday batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.309, 0.683 — Ramon Urias batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.305, 0.675 — Trevor Rogers batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.303, 0.731 — Luis Arraez batting at Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.289, 0.702 — Trea Turner batting at Marcus Stroman.
- 0.288, 0.643 — Dylan Carlson batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
It’s another “pick any player facing Senzatela” day.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high proability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.303, 0.731 — Luis Arraez batting at Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.340, 0.719 — Gunnar Henderson batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.334, 0.714 — Ryan O’Hearn batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.332, 0.712 — Jordan Westburg batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.332, 0.707 — Ramon Laureano batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.279, 0.702 — Ivan Herrera batting vs. Randy Vasquez.
- 0.289, 0.702 — Trea Turner batting at Marcus Stroman.
- 0.326, 0.697 — Jackson Holliday batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.268, 0.696 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Tanner Bibee.
- 0.284, 0.695 — Ronald Acuna Jr. batting at Kumar Rocker.
Henderson is the consensus top pick, with O’Hearn the double down choice. Arraez is the high probability pick, however. Arraez is working on an eight-game hit streak.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!