For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.323, 0.726 — Ivan Herrera batting at Austin Gomber.
- 0.315, 0.713 — Alec Burleson batting at Austin Gomber.
- 0.310, 0.709 — Brendan Donovan batting at Austin Gomber.
- 0.299, 0.687 — Josh Naylor batting vs. Colton Gordon.
- 0.295, 0.683 — Yohel Pozo batting at Austin Gomber.
- 0.295, 0.687 — Ketel Marte batting vs. Colton Gordon.
- 0.295, 0.706 — Trea Turner batting vs. Walker Buehler.
- 0.292, 0.685 — Masyn Winn batting at Austin Gomber.
- 0.290, 0.692 — Jose Ramirez batting vs. Tomoyoki Sugano.
- 0.285, 0.686 — Steven Kwan batting vs. Tomoyoki Sugano.
It looks like a good day for the Cardinals and Diamondbacks. Herrera is just four for sixteen with five strikeouts since his return from the illjured list.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.323, 0.726 — Ivan Herrera batting at Austin Gomber.
- 0.315, 0.713 — Alec Burleson batting at Austin Gomber.
- 0.277, 0.710 — Jacob Wilson batting at Jack Leiter.
- 0.310, 0.709 — Brendan Donovan batting at Austin Gomber.
- 0.295, 0.706 — Trea Turner batting vs. Walker Buehler.
- 0.290, 0.692 — Jose Ramirez batting vs. Tomoyoki Sugano.
- 0.265, 0.691 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Randy Vasquez.
- 0.264, 0.690 — Aaron Judge batting at Kevin Gausman.
- 0.261, 0.689 — Miguel Andujar batting at Jack Leiter.
- 0.299, 0.687 — Josh Naylor batting vs. Colton Gordon.
- 0.295, 0.687 — Ketel Marte batting vs. Colton Gordon.
Both systems agree on Herrera and Burleson as the top two picks. Herrera owns a career .363 BABIP, and while his K rate is high, it’s not extreme. Burleson owns low walk and K rates, so he puts the ball in play, something that is very good to do at Coors Field.
The MLB hit average hit .220 today, so that should help the probabilities a little.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!