First baseman Pete Alonso continues to wait for a match as spring training approaches. The Mets did an excellent job of capturing Alonso’s prime years, getting six seasons and 17.3 WAR for about $44 million, or about 2.5 million per WAR. He will play 2025 as a 30 year old, his prime years over. Whatever teams signs him will pay for his decline.

I estimate future WAR by taking the average of the last three seasons as a starting point, then reducing WAR 10% a year for players past their prime. Here is what the next ten seasons look like for Alonso based on those estimates:

Season WAR	Total WAR	TW*$9M	TW*$11M
2.9	2.9	26.1	31.9
2.6	5.5	49.6	60.6
2.3	7.9	70.7	86.4
2.1	10.0	89.8	109.7
1.9	11.9	106.9	130.6
1.7	13.6	122.3	149.5
1.5	15.1	136.2	166.4
1.4	16.5	148.6	181.7
1.2	17.8	159.9	195.4
1.1	18.9	170.0	207.8

Total WAR is the WAR thought that season. TW*9 values a WAR at $9 million, TW*11 values a WAR at $11 million. There does seem to be a sliding scale today where better players seem to receive a higher $ per WAR.

Alonso did not finish his peak years well. He fell off a full WAR from 2022 to 2023, 3.8 fWAR to 2.8 fWAR, then finished with another drop to 2.1 WAR in 2024. That’s not a great trajectory, which is one reason teams may be valuing him more at the $9 million per WAR level.

Another factor is his position. First baseman who can hit tend to be easier to find than the same level of offense at other positions. So if team is going to invest in Alonso, they want a high probability that the contract will pay off, so teams are less likely to go long term.

So I believe the sweet spot for Alonso would be a four year deal. That is likely to average more than two WAR a season. With a contract that short, a team would more likely go for the higher $110 million instead of the lower $90.

Of course, one also needs to find a team where two or three WAR might make a difference in the franchise making the playoffs. The best bet for that would likely be Seattle. Luke Raley top the Mariners depth chart right now. He and Alonso are the same age. Both had outlier seasons; Raley in the positive direction, Alonso in the negative. Regression to the mean would give Alsonso a better season than Raley in 2025. Raley, however, would be much cheaper.

So that’s the third problem for Alonso, there are not many great fits for his two to three WAR at first base. My guess he may go for a three or four year deal at $10 million per WAR, or take the Joc Pederson route and take one-year deals until a better long-term offer comes along.