For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.313 — Luis Arraez batting against Dakota Hudson.
- 0.306 — Trea Turner batting against Patrick Sandoval.
- 0.302 — Alec Bohm batting against Patrick Sandoval.
- 0.297 — Salvador Perez batting against Chris Bassitt.
- 0.296 — William Contreras batting against Zach Eflin.
- 0.291 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Chris Bassitt.
- 0.289 — Ke’Bryan Hayes batting against Ross Stripling.
- 0.286 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.283 — Connor Joe batting against Ross Stripling.
- 0.282 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Daulton Jefferies.
It looks like a good day for Pennsylvania players. Alec Bohm excellent season is starting to show up in a number of lists. His fourteen game hit streak is currently the longest in the majors.
The NN produces these high hit probability players:
- 0.313, 0.744 — Luis Arraez batting against Dakota Hudson.
- 0.306, 0.710 — Trea Turner batting against Patrick Sandoval.
- 0.302, 0.706 — Alec Bohm batting against Patrick Sandoval.
- 0.296, 0.698 — William Contreras batting against Zach Eflin.
- 0.276, 0.696 — Michael Harris II batting against Emerson Hancock.
- 0.276, 0.692 — Mookie Betts batting against Jordan Montgomery.
- 0.297, 0.689 — Salvador Perez batting against Chris Bassitt.
- 0.282, 0.688 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Daulton Jefferies.
- 0.291, 0.687 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Chris Bassitt.
The two systems agree on the top three today, with Arraez and Turner the double down choices.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!