The division previews continue with the AL West. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

Houston Astros

• Position Player RC/G Average: 6.04
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.33
• Core Winning Percentage: .660

The Astros enter the eighth season of their AL dynasty in extremely good shape to win another title. They managed to replace the stars of past so that six of the nine core batters sit in their prime years, most in their early primes. The one older veteran they kept long term, Jose Altuve, projects to be the second best hitter in the lineup. The Braves were extremely adept at this in the 1990s (and today as well). It’s a very impressive job by the front office. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are the two leading prime players on the team, and both are offensive stars, they are a big reason Houston’s 6.04 Position Player RC/G is the best in the division.

The core pitchers look very good as well, although three of them are rather inexperienced. There projections should be take with a great deal of uncertainty in both directions. One thing to watch with the pitchers will be how they do with Yainer Diaz taking over the front line catching duties. Diaz adds a ton to the offense over Martin Maldonado. I suspect his offense will make up for any defense lost from Maldonado’s departure.

The pitching core as a whole should be good enough for the offense, and good enough for another division title.

Seattle Mariners

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.27
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 3.99
• Core Winning Percentage: .636

The Mariners did surprisingly well in this analysis, with an impressive core winning percentage. Seattle put together a pitching core that ranks first in the division. Four of the five starters project to RC/G of around four. If you look through all the team evaluated so far, that grouping is rather unusual. George Kirby looks to be the ace, but Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert are right with him.

While I’ve seen complaints about the construction of the offense this winter, the team is actually good up the middle. As I love to say, it’s easier to fix problems on the corners than in the middle of the field. Julio Rodriguez, J.P. Crawford, Jorge Polanco, and Cal Raleigh give them room to maneuver.

Seattle won’t be the favorite for the division, but there’s no reason they can’t give the Astros a run for their money.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.10
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.68
• Core Winning Percentage: .574

I have come not to trust the Angels projections over the years. Someone gets hurt. Some young player doesn’t live up to expectations. The team can’t pull itself out of a downward spiral.

This team, however, projects to be the best team in the division up the middle, and that is an important marker. A lot of that is Mike Trout projecting to 7.44 RC/G, but catcher Logan O’Hoppe, should be good. He projected well last season as well, but was almost immediately injured.

Of course one tends to believe that their is lots of upside to the Anthony Rendon projection. The Angles need to hope that he pulls a Cody Bellinger, stays healthy, and has a super year.

The pitching staff looks meh. There’s no one great, but no one terrible either.

The Angles have a shot at finishing over .500, and with the expanded playoff system, a team doesn’t need to be that far over .500 to reach the post season. I will not get my hopes up, but the Angels could be a pleasant surprise.

Texas Rangers

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.41
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.77
• Core Winning Percentage: .562

I am as surprised by the Rangers projection as I am by the Angels projection. This is a good young offense, which should be even better with a full season of Evan Carter and rookie Wyatt Langford. I normally put in rookies at 4.5 RC/G, but Wyatt’s minor league numbers look so good I upped him to a 5.0, which might still be an understatement.

The problem comes from the two great starting pitchers on the team, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer each missing at least have the season on the illjured list. The current rotation is not good. While more and more teams are dependent on their bullpens, this group will give the relievers very few days of rest. Bruce Bochy is good at managing his staff, but the offense can’t afford to take a break in 2024. It’s a tough division with four good teams, and right now it looks like a World Series repeat would be difficult.

Oakland Athletics

• Position Player RC/G Average: 4.75
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.76
• Core Winning Percentage: .498

This is a slightly worse Core Winning Percentage than the Athletics projected to last season.

I want to find upside in the offensive lineup. Five of the core hitters are in their early prime years, which should be good. They have little major league experience, however, indicating they may really be career minor leaguers. None of them sport projections that indicate players on the rise, although Musings Marcels likes Zack Gelof much more than the FanGraphs projection.

On the pitching side, Alex Wood and Ross Stripling were good once, but both are past their primes and have not done well lately. Again, it is really difficult to find upside here.

It’s tough to believe the A’s might be worse than last season, but there is no evidence the team tried to get better. Maybe they are taking falling below the 1962 Mets more seriously in 2024.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

• Houston Astros 35%
• Seattle Mariners 30%
• Texas Rangers 19%
• LAA Angels 17%
• Oakland Athletics 1%

The Rangers and Angels ranking goes against the projected WL Pct. The Rangers have upside. I am just so jaded by the Angels failing to meet expectations that I just factored into my estimate. I think Seattle fans should be excited for this season. It’s a strong division, with all four contender strong up the middle.