August 1, 2022

Challenge Trade

I find the deal for closers between Milwaukee and San Diego fascinating:

The Padres moved to address the hole in the back end of their bullpen Monday by trading for the best closer in the major leagues.

And what they sent to Milwaukee for Josh Hader does not preclude them from continuing to engage in talks with the Nationals about acquiring Juan Soto, the main prize they seek to upgrade their offense.

The Padres sent the Brewers relievers Taylor Rogers and Dinelson Lamet and outfielder Esteury Ruiz, as well as minor leaguer Robert Gasser, their No. 7 prospect who has been pitching at Single-A Fort Wayne.

SanDiegoUnionTribune.com

This is a meditation on the value of a closer. If you rank them by saves, Hader and Rogers come out one-two, so it’s easy to do a straight comparison. Both own rather high ERAs. Hader strikes out batters at a higher rate, 15.6 per 9 IP compared to 10.5 for Rogers. Rogers however, allows a miniscule number of walks and home runs compared to Hader. Both have much lower FIPs than ERAs, but Rogers has the better FIP, Hader the better xFIP. They each have strengths and weaknesses, but they are both good pitchers.

Yet the Padres value Hader much more highly than the Brewers. Both teams are expansion clubs from 1969 that never won a World Series, and both are likely to make the playoffs. The Padres see a single pitcher as an integral part of the team, while the Brewers were willing to let the same pitcher go for more depth and some good, young players.

Ruiz appears to have found himself this season, putting up high OBPs at both AA and AAA. Gasser is a starter with a high K rate and a low walk rate.

I know people who believe the role of the closer is over-rated, and others that feel it’s an extremely important part of the team. I’m almost hoping that the Brewers and Padres face each other in the post-season to put this trade to a head-to-head test.

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