March 24, 2019

Division Preview, 2019 NL East

The division previews continue with the NL East. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use Baseball-Reference WAR from 2018, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2018. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Atlanta Braves

  • Position Player WAR: 23.6
  • Pitcher Total: 10.3
  • Core Total: 33.9

The Braves come into the season with the best position player WAR in the division by far. Their outfield is outstanding (10.1 WAR) and they are also strong up the middle (10.1 WAR). Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies are in their early 20s, and many others are in their primes. There is little downside risk on the offense, and plenty of upside. If Josh Donaldson can return to form, the upside would be huge.

The Braves pitching is the weakest of the four contending teams. Mike Foltynewicz posted a 3.9 WAR season, but the Nationals, Mets, and Phillies all hold an ace that was above eight. The offense may need all the improvement it can muster to carry the team back to the playoffs in a very strong division.

Washington Nationals

  • Position Player WAR: 17.7
  • Pitcher Total: 23.1
  • Core Total: 40.8

Washington comes into the season with the best core WAR balance of any team in the division. Their 23.1 pitcher core total (highest in the division) is the result of carrying three aces and a very solid back of the rotation. Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, and Stephen Strasburg can go toe-to-toe with the Mets top three, but Washington wins the battle of the 4-5 starters.

The team turned out to be extremely well prepared for the exit of Bryce Harper, with not one outfield replacement but two. Juan Soto and Victor Robles keep the team young. There was much talk the previous years about Washington’s window of opportunity for winning a championship being short, but now they have two outfielders under control for at least another six years, which should give them plenty of payroll flexibility, especially if they want to keep Anthony Rendon.

Of course, Washington looked good in this analysis last season, but something just didn’t click with the team. The Nationals consistently give their managers two chances to win, so if Dave Martinez doesn’t come through, we might see someone new at the helm in 2020.

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Position Player WAR: 15.0
  • Pitcher Total: 20.8
  • Core Total: 35.8

The Phillies made the biggest moves of the off-season, bringing in four stars or former stars to fill out the lineup. J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura combine to add 8.6 WAR to the team, while Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen bring another 4.1.

That second number may be low, as Baseball Reference and FanGraphs disagree on Harper’s value in 2018. BR wipes out a large chunk of Harper’s offensive value due to defense. FanGraphs also judges Harper’s defense poorly, but still comes up with a 3.5 WAR for the season. The Phillies were not going to pay a two WAR player that much money, so it’s more likely that are valuing him in the four to five WAR range. We shall see. My guess would be that the horrific leg injury Harper suffered at the end of 2017 hurt his defense in 2018. Maybe it will hurt his defense for the rest of his career. Of course, that is better than ending a career, a real possibility at the time it happened.

There is definitely upside to the Phillies position player number, if both Harper and Rhys Hoskins return to form.

The pitching rotation is excellent. Aaron Nola probably regresses a bit from his 10.5 WAR season, but the rest of the rotation is solid. They have four #3 starters behind Nola, but that gives them a chance to win every game given the improved offense. The acquisition of David Robertson as a closer makes them solid at the end of the game, too. They are right there with Atlanta and Washington.

New York Mets

  • Position Player WAR: 16.5
  • Pitcher Total: 21.9
  • Core Total: 38.4

Like the Nationals, the Mets trot out a rotation with three aces. The back of the rotation is not as strong as Washington, but the top is devastating to opposing hitters. The team added Edwin Diaz as the closer, giving them the highest WAR at that position coming into the season.

Preventing runs is not the problem. Scoring runs will be the challenge. The Mets have made an attempt to get away from old players. The outfield features Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo. The versatile Jeff McNeill takes over at third base with Amed Rosario at short and Dominc Smith at first. They did bring in veterans Wilson Ramos and Robinson Cano. They are plugging holes, however. The Mets are not building around them. For once the youth on the team gives them lots of upside. The Mets look like contenders this season.

Miami Marlins

  • Position Player WAR: 11
  • Pitcher Total: 3.5
  • Core Total: 14.5

The Marlins will continue to be normal bad. That is, they will win 60 to 70 games depending on how their luck runs, and if some of their prospects develop into major league players early. One unfortunate obstacle the face is four good teams in the division. So they are going to play a lot of games against clearly superior opponents. If they can win 70 games against that competition, it will be a great moral victory for the team.


Summary

This is a tough division to call, as the Nationals, Mets, Phillies, and Braves all look very good. If you love pitching, you’ll love to watch this divison. With luck, we’ll see a number of head-to-head games between Max Scherzer, Aaron Nola, and Jacob deGrom.

Probability of winning the division

  • Washington Nationals 25%
  • Philadelphia Phillies 24%
  • Atlanta Braves 24%
  • New York Mets 24%
  • Miami Marlins 3%

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