The Guardians send Shane Bieber against the Mariners and Luis Castillo. Bieber got off to a great start this season, mowing down eleven Athletics via the strikeout in six innings of work. That may not bode well for the Seattle batters who are averaging over10 K per game. Castillo pitched poorly against Cleveland when he worked for the Reds, but with Seattle he allowed the Guardians just one run in 18 innings.
The Cardinals and Padres square off in San Diego with Miles Mikolas facing Yu Darvish. Mikolas is a low K, low BB pitcher. That worked for him as he kept his BABIP low for most of his career. That statistic rose to .308 last season, and after one game in 2024 it stands at .455. Darvish, now seasonal age 37, managed to maintain a high K rate over time. Even well past his prime, he continues to post strikeout rates above 9.0 per nine innings
Major League Games produced five shutouts on Monday. Days with lots of shutouts do seem to be connected to weather. In the 30 team era (1998-on), Sept-Oct produced 22 days with at least five shutouts, March-April 18, with May third at 17. Of the summer months, July produced 14 such days, August 12, and June 10.
The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive starts today. If you love Beat the Streak Picks, please consider a $5 or $10 donation to help defray the cost of the statistics used here.
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Hoerner often ranked high in the Beat the Streak picks last season. For his career, Hoerner owns a high BA without a lot of walks or strikeouts. Suzuki tends to walk and strikeout more than Hoerner, so when I see a tie like this, I would tend to pick Hoerner. Notice, however, that this ranking as more to do with Freeland being very hittable.
0.252, 0.680 — Ronald Acuna batting against Garrett Crochet.
0.278, 0.678 — Nico Hoerner batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.267, 0.676 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.278, 0.674 — Seiya Suzuki batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.260, 0.673 — Mookie Betts batting against Logan Webb.
One reason I like the NN is that it moderates extremes due to the starting pitcher. Note, two that the NN does a better job of recognizing Hoerner as the better of the two Cubs to extend a hit streak. The Cubs are the consensus double down choices.
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The Baseball Musings Batter Rankings retained the same top five after games of Monday. Juan Soto of the Yankees drew two walks in five trips to the plate in the 5-2 win over Arizona. That keeps New York undefeated on the season. Mookie Betts of the Dodgers produced another high game score, 67, with a two for three in an 8-3 win over the Giants. He walked, doubled, and tripled, leaving his slugging percentage at 1.200.
Yordan Alvarez of the Astros contributed a walk to 10-0 win over the Blue Jays, Ronel Blanco tossing a no-hitter in the game. Not only did the Astros get the best pitched game of the day, but Kyle Tucker, with two home runs and a walk in four PA produced the highest game score of the day, a 78.
Corey Seager of the Rangers singled and walked twice in the 9-3 win at Tampa Bay to hold the fourth slot. Manny Machado of the Padres posted a two for four night to rank fight, but the Cardinals took the game 6-2.
Ronel Blanco of the Astros takes a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the Blue Jays. He walked the lead-off batter in the first, then retired 24 in a row. Blanco is scheduled to face Isiah Kiner-Falefa (now pitching), Cavan Biggio, and George Springer.
The Astros lead the Blue Jays 10-0.
Update: Kiner-Falefa grounds an 0-1 pitch back to the mound for the first out.
Update: Biggio grounds hard to first, where Jose Abreu makes a terrific stop. He throws the ball from a sitting position to Blanco for the out.
Update: Springer gets ahead 2-0, then 3-1. On a 3-2 count, Blanco issues a walk. That’s two walks for Springer in the game.
Update: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. comes to the plate. He gets ahead 2-1. On a 2-2, Guerrero hits a medium grounder to second, and is thrown out for the no-hitter! Blanco throws just 105 pitches. It’s his first time going more than six innings in a game.
Update: The Blue Jays are now 3 for 48 against Blanco. His catcher, Yainer Diaz, hit two home runs in the game, so the battery was well charged.
The Royals and Orioles play a back and forth game, Baltimore coming out on top as Jordan Westburg hits a walk-off home run in the ninth to give Baltimore the win 6-4. Westburg had not done much so far this season, but he gets a memorable night under his belt. It’s only the fourth home run of his 71 game career.
Ronel Blanco of the Astros just finished five no-hit innings against the Toronto Blue Jays. He walked one and struck out six so far. He threw just 61 pitches, but we’ll see how long Ron Washington allows him to pitch this early in the season.
The Astros lead 5-0.
Update: Blanco gets three balls in play in the sixth, all for outs as he extends his no hitter another inning.
Update: Blanco gets a K and two outs in the air and now owns a no-hitter through seven innings. Blanco faced the Blue Jays twice before, and they were 3 for 21 against him with two home runs. Toronto is 0 for 21 against him tonight. The Astros now lead 7-0, and Blanco threw just 81 pitches.
Update: Blanco gets two ground outs and a fly out in the eighth, and he takes a no-hitter into the ninth inning. The Astros lead 10-0, and Blanco is at 91 pitches.
Shota Imanaga pitched a gem in his major league debut, allowing just two hits while striking out nine his his six innings of work for the Cubs. He owned a low walk rate in Japan, but the strikeouts were quite surprising. The Cubs easily defeat the Rockies 5-0.
All nine Braves starting batters picked up at least one hit Monday afternoon in Chicago as Atlanta pounded the White Sox 9-0. The Braves collected five walks to go with their eleven hits. Atlanta came into the game tied with Baltimore, averaging 8.33 runs per game, highest in the majors. They are up to 34 runs in four games on 50 hits. The White Sox score eight runs in their four games, one less than the Braves scored against them today, and they’ve been shutout twice.
Opening day in Washington get MG as a sponsor as Marco Gonzales of the Pirates takes on MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals. Gonzalez returns to the National League for the first time since 2017 when he pitched for the Cardinals. His low K rate allows lots of balls in play, but his .291 BABIP means that he limits hits. Gore walks a ton of batters, and needs to get that under control to move to the next level. He was better at that in the minor leagues.
The Rangers go on the road to face the Rays with Dane Dunning taking the mound against Ryan Pepiot. Dunning saw his K rate degrade each year of his career, but he brought his home run and walk rates down to compensate. Pepiot owns a 2.76 ERA in 78 1/3 MLB innings, but his FIPs are much higher. He did pitch well with runners in scoring position.
Finally, the Giants travel to Los Angeles to meet their ancient rivals the Dodgers. Keaton Winn hurls against James Paxton. In his brief MLB time, Winn posted a walk rate of 1.7 per nine innings. That was his strength in the minors as well, but not quite that good. Paxton abandoned his cut fastball for a slider last season, He had to recover from both Tommy John surgery and a subsequent lat tear. It’s possible he can’t throw the pitch anymore.
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
The two systems agree on Harris and Acuna as the top picks. Harris’s career .337 OBP is low for his .297 BA. In general, one wants to see hits and walks, but for the purpose of advancing hit streaks, lots more hits than walks work better.
Manny Machado of the Padres makes his way into the top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings as he posts a two for five with two doubles in a 13-4 win over the Giants. Machado’s batting average of .217 doesn’t tell the story of a good start to the season, as he owns a .357 OBP and a .565 slugging percentage. Four of his five hits went for extra bases.
Corey Seager of the Rangers makes his way back into the top five without playing in the 9-5 loss to the Cubs. Enough poor games by others lifted him into fourth place.
Juan Soto of the Yankees remains in the number one slot after a three for five day with a home run in a 4-3 win over the Astros. He’s batting .529 with a .600 OBP. His opponent, Yordan Alvarez, took an 0 for 5 to drop to third place.
The leaves Mookie Betts of the Dodgers in second place. He played his first poor game of the season, going 0 for 4 in the 5-4, late inning win over the Cardinals. Betts struck out just twice in his first six games.
The best game score of the day goes to Justin Turner of the Blue Jays, a 79. Turner reached base four time with a walk, single, double, and home run as Toronto beat Tampa Bay 9-2. Three of his four hits went for extra bases in this young season.
