Daily Archives: August 20, 2019

August 20, 2019

Retired Crime

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Authorities in the Dominican Republic went after two former MLB players as part of a drug ring:

Octavio Dotel was arrested and local cops are searching for Luis Castillo as part of a major raid in the Dominican that targeted properties owned by Cesar Emilio Peralta, according to Attorney General Jean Alain Rodriguez.


Peralta — known as Cesar The Abuser — is accused of running a major drug trafficking and money laundering ring. He was not captured during the raids.


“Eighteen other people are linked to this network, including athletes and baseball players Octavio Dotel and Luis Castillo,” Rodríguez said in a press conference, calling it “the most important drug trafficking structure in the region.”

NYDailyNews.com

According to Baseball Reference, Castillo grossed $56 million in his career, Dotel $41 million. Even after all the agent fees and taxes, they would be set for life and could pursue something other than their alleged crimes.

August 20, 2019

42 for Trout

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Mike Trout hit home run 42 on the season in the first game of a double header, the Angles beating the Rangers 5-1. That also gives Trout 282 homers for his career. Eighteen more would bring him to sixty for the year and 300 for his career, which would be a very cool double milestone.

Trout is now tied with Albert Pujols for most home runs hit through a player’s seasonal age 27 season. Only two players have cracked 300 home runs through that age, Jimmie Foxx with 302 and Alex Rodriguez with 345. Eighteen home runs in five and a half weeks is a tall order, but not out of the realm of possibility.

August 20, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.320 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Homer Bailey.
0.320 — Corey Dickerson batting against Brian Johnson.
0.318 — Christian Yelich batting against Michael Wacha.
0.316 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Homer Bailey.
0.315 — Ketel Marte batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.314 — Wilmer Flores batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.313 — Jean Segura batting against Brian Johnson.
0.307 — Tim Anderson batting against Michael Pineda.
0.304 — Daniel Santana batting against Jaime Barria.
0.299 — Luis Arraez batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.298 — Keston Hiura batting against Michael Wacha.
0.298 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Brian Johnson.

Santana left the Rangers game Monday night with an injury. In addition, Texas hosts the Angels in a double header today, so be careful picking players from those teams. Homer Bailey may live up to his first name tonight against the Yankees.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.320, 0.757 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Homer Bailey.
  • 0.316, 0.749 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Homer Bailey.
  • 0.320, 0.737 — Corey Dickerson batting against Brian Johnson.
  • 0.318, 0.737 — Christian Yelich batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.307, 0.731 — Tim Anderson batting against Michael Pineda.
  • 0.284, 0.731 — Michael Brantley batting against Spencer Turnbull.
  • 0.313, 0.730 — Jean Segura batting against Brian Johnson.
  • 0.286, 0.729 — Howie Kendrick batting against Chris Archer.
  • 0.282, 0.725 — Hanser Alberto batting against Brad Keller.
  • 0.274, 0.725 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Alex Young.

The two systems agree on Gio Urshela in the top slot. Corey Dickerson is the consensus second pick. Yelich is four for 14 career against Wacha.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 20, 2019

Best Batter Today

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This is the closest I have seen the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings since I started reporting on the topic. The top five this morning are separated by 1.2 points. Christian Yelich moves to the number one slot after drawing three walks on Monday night. Ketel Marte homered and walked to take the second slot. Astros occupy the three and four slots as Alex Bregman singled and Yuli Gurriel singled and doubled. Mike Trout drops to fifth place after a two for six night. Ten point separate the top 16 as a plethora of batter continue to have great seasons.

August 20, 2019