Daily Archives: April 19, 2017

April 19, 2017

Good Bye to Seattle

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Ichiro Suzuki finished what was likely his last game in Seattle with a bang:

In what could be his final at-bat at Seattle’s Safeco Field, longtime Mariners and current Miami Marlins outfielder Ichiro Suzuki hit a home run in the ninth inning of a 10-5 loss to the M’s on Wednesday.

The solo shot came on the first pitch of the ninth inning off Mariners reliever Evan Marshall. Suzuki got the start in right field and had two hits.

The home run came on the same day the Mariners were honoring Suzuki with a unique collectable during the interleague series finale. Dubbed the “Ichiro Dual Bobblehead,” the statue portrayed Suzuki with the Mariners and Marlins.

He is the all-time hit leader at Safeco Field by a wide margin, with 1240 after today’s game.

April 19, 2017

The Boys in the Bandy

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Before the season got underway, I wrote my old friends from the Harvard Band that Jett Bandy would be my official favorite player of 2017. We referred to ourselves as Bandies, and with a first name like Jett, how could I not like the guy? He’s come through for the Brewers as well. In his tenth game of the season Wednesday afternoon, he walked and homered to raise his slash line to .323/.382/.677, and five of his ten hits have gone for extra bases. I hope Bandy plays on. 🙂

His performance wasn’t enough as the Cubs score four runs in the ninth, three on a walk-off home run by Addison Russell to win the game 7-4.

April 19, 2017

Games of the Day

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Wednesday afternoon features two good pitching match-ups. First, Martin Perez and the Rangers face Jesse Hahn of the Athletics. Perez owns a 2.20 ERA, but his stats would indicate a much higher number. He allowed 18 hits, 11 walks, and two home runs in 16 1/3 innings, but just four runs. Opponents are just 2 for 14 with runners in scoring position, but six for 11 with just a man on first. Hahn has yet to pitch a full season in the majors. So far this year, his strikeout rate is up with 10 K in 12 innings.

A few minutes later, Edinson Volquez takes on Felix Hernandez as the Marlins play the Mariners. Volquez is undefeated against the Mariners in his career, 5-0 with a 2.66 ERA in eight games, seven starts. That despite having almost as many walks as strikeouts. Hernandez, who had good but not great walk numbers during his career, has yet to issue a free pass in 18 1/3 innings this year, striking out 15 along the way.

Finally, Madison Bumgarner battles Jason Vargas as the Giants visit the Royals. Both teams are off to disappointing starts. Bumgarner already owns a complete game this season, giving him 13 CGs since the start of the 2014 season. He’s tied with Clayton Kershaw for the most CG in that time period (Kershaw also pitching on Wednesday). Vargas owns a 0.66 ERA after two starts, reflecting his outstanding three-true outcomes. He allowed two walks while striking out 14 in 13 2/3 innings, and has not allowed a home run.

Enjoy!

April 19, 2017

A Yankees Fix to the Mets Problem

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David Schoenfield notes that Mets fans are tired of Jose Reyes:

The Mets, however, should have won the game before Montero appeared. In the top of the eighth, with two outs and the Mets leading 2-1, Jose Reyes dropped a little pop fly along the third-base line, perhaps a little wary of bumping into catcher Travis d’Arnaud, who was standing a few feet away. Andres Blanco then doubled to tie the game. That’s an inexcusable error.

The Mets have five outfielders. What they don’t have is a third baseman. Reyes is hitting .100/.182/.140. Besides maybe Rangers reliever Sam Dyson, he has been the least valuable player in the majors. You might be shocked to hear this, but Mets fans are upset.

Which brings me to something I’ve been thinking about since the Yankees are getting offensive production from a couple of unexpected sources. Chase Headley and Starlin Castro are both going gang busters, hitting for average, getting on base, and hitting for power. I suspect one reason is that the Yankees have Gleyber Torres, who many think could have started the season in the majors. Castro is still young enough and with enough potential to keep his job, but Headley would be a perfect person to flip to the Mets for prospects or a pitcher. It is one of those sell high situations, much like with Aroldis Chapman last season, where the Yankees can get a lot from a needy team. It’s almost the end of April, the time when the Yankees will be able to control Torres for seven years. Let’s see them make a deal.

April 19, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.287 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson
0.286 — Jon Jay batting against Tom Milone
0.284 — Justin Turner batting against Tyler Anderson
0.281 — Kevin Pillar batting against Rick Porcello
0.281 — Dee Gordon batting against Felix Hernandez
0.281 — Anthony Rizzo batting against Tom Milone
0.279 — Jose Altuve batting against J.C. Ramirez
0.279 — Albert Almora batting against Tom Milone
0.277 — Javier Baez batting against Tom Milone
0.276 — Jason Heyward batting against Tom Milone

The Log5 calculation produced a very different list today, as Daniel Murphy doesn’t make the top ten, although it’s not unusual to see Corey Seager at the top of the list. Tom Milone seems to be the pitcher to hit against on Wednesday.

The NN with Park produces this list:

0.273, 0.722 — Daniel Murphy batting against Julio Teheran.
0.279, 0.715 — Jose Altuve batting against J.C. Ramirez.
0.281, 0.707 — Dee Gordon batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.287, 0.706 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.266, 0.700 — Mookie Betts batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.273, 0.698 — Brandon Phillips batting against Joe Ross.
0.274, 0.694 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.273, 0.693 — A.J. Pollock batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.262, 0.691 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.274, 0.690 — Freddie Freeman batting against Joe Ross.

Quite a different list. Daniel Murphy is the top pick here, and against a very good pitcher. Altuve moves from seventh to second, Gordon from fifth to third, and Corey Seager drops to fourth. The Cubs against Tom Milone completely disappear. Seager appears to be the consensus choice.

Seager is the consensus pick. Remember, the best picks will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

April 19, 2017