Category Archives: International

July 22, 2022

The International Draft

The deadline approaches for MLB and the MLBPA to make or break a deal on an international draft. One of the main concerns voiced as a reason for the need of a draft is corruption, as youngsters, barely teenagers, make deals to sign with clubs years before that transaction is allowed.

Let me state up front that the draft is not about that. The draft is about saving MLB money, and making it a bit easier for the lower revenue teams to compete for players. Francisco Lindor of the Mets says it well:

“This is not a system problem — this is a people problem, and the people work for the major league teams,” said New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor, a member of the MLBPA’s executive subcommittee. “It should start by penalizing those people that do pre-deals. It should start by penalizing the people that are putting these (players) to work as hard as they can at such a young age to try to get a deal at 13, 14 years old. That’s who they should be penalizing.

“At the end of the day, the system is a byproduct of the rules that people made. … I think the system is probably not the greatest, but the people who created the system have taken advantage. That’s the problem.”

ESPN.com

Long time readers of Baseball Musings know that I believe the more rules in a system, the easier it is to game those rules. This is why I constantly push for universal free agency. The limits put on international signings appear to have made the system worse, not better. If a draft is implemented, in ten years people will be complaining about the lack of Latin American players in the big leagues, just like the current amateur draft reduced the number of African American and Puerto Rican players in MLB. These players were no longer cheap to develop, so that mechanism moved to other countries outside the draft.

I also want to take exception to a statement in the article:

When the Dominican-born Minaya served as the New York Mets’ general manager from 2004 to 2010, teams were just beginning to commit resources in Latin America.

ESPN.com

This really started in the 1970s:

That aspiration became more formalized in 1977. In that year, “super-scout” Epy Guerrero, himself Dominican, took ten Dominican players he had signed and housed them together so they could hone their skills. The Dodgers and Pirates, already involved in scouting in the Caribbean, quicky copied this model.

The idea of a closed baseball academy was born, and they were also established to cut down on the culture shock faced by players moving to the United States without knowledge of English or American culture. Today all thirty MLB clubs have a presence on the island in the form of these academies.

Origins.OSU.edu

What happened 20 years ago is that most of the big market clubs realized they could save money with this model. Suddenly, teams like the Pirates, who had been fairly free to develop foreign talent, now had to compete with the Yankees for that talent. Remember, every restriction on signing free agents, whether amateur or professional, is designed to stop the Yankees from dominating the league.

The draft is a bad idea. Slot bonuses are a worse idea. Let all the players be free to sign where they want for the money they want. Everyone will be better off.

July 8, 2022

Playing the Draft Card

MLB and the MLBPA are in negotiations to institute an international draft.

The March 10 agreement that ended the 99-day lockout set a July 25 deadline for the union to agree to the draft. Without an agreement, direct draft-pick compensation and the qualifying offer system would remain for major league free agents. That structure has inhibited the market for some players, such as pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel in 2019.

Chron.com

So once again, major league players will throw amateurs under the bus for a little more money. An international draft will lead to fewer foreign players, since they will no longer be a cost effective means of acquiring players. Why run an academy if there is no guarantee you will get the players?

The MLBPA should be trying to eliminate the draft altogether, and I hope they wind up rejecting this proposal.

April 17, 2022

Still Perfect

Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki follows up his perfect game with eight more perfect innings.

The Chiba Lotte right-hander struck out 14 over eight perfect innings against Nippon before being pulled. The 20-year-old struck out the side in the eighth inning while reaching 101 mph, but was lifted with the score tied 0-0 after throwing 102 pitches. Chiba Lotte would go on to lose the game, 1-0, in 10 innings.

MLB.com

He’s a combination of Johnny Vander Meer and Harvey Haddix. Once again, teams are prioritizing the health of a pitcher over making history.

April 12, 2022

Free Cubans

A group of Cuban players working off the island want to represent the country in the next WBC. Cuban baseball is not happy with this:

The president of the Cuban Baseball Federation, Juan Reynaldo Pérez, called a news conference and accused the group of trying to usurp Cuba’s representation in the international competition.

ESPN.com

Anyone who gets denounced by Cuba must be doing something right.

April 10, 2022

Outstanding in Any League

A youngster in Japan pitched about as perfect as one can pitch:

Pitching phenom Roki Sasaki had 19 strikeouts while throwing a perfect game in a record-setting performance Sunday in Japan’s top professional league.

Sasaki, 20, recorded the first perfect game in Nippon Professional Baseball since 1994 and the 16th in league history, according to multiple Japanese media outlets.

ESPN.com

His 19 K tied a record for a game, and his 13 K in row set a record. I hope he gets posted sooner than later! He was caught be an 18-year-old.

March 10, 2022

Punting the Draft

MLB and the MLBPA kicked the International Draft down the road so they can get back to the economic issues of the CBA.

Under the deal reached Thursday, if a negotiated agreement on a draft is reached by July 25, direct amateur draft-pick compensation would be removed for free agents starting with the 2022-23 offseason.

If the sides do not reach an agreement by July 25, direct amateur-draft pick compensation would remain in place.

ESPN.com

So the owners get what they wanted, linking the draft to free agent compensation. So if the players say yes to the draft, they are putting the interest of the free agents ahead of the interest of the amateurs.

January 10, 2022

Cornering the Market

Elian Soto, the 16-year-old brother of Juan Soto, will sign with the Nationals in the next international signing period:

Before anyone thinks that signing the younger Soto is like getting a clone of Juan, consider that none of the ranking services has him on their future top prospects lists. There is no Perfect Game stats to look at like we had with Armando Cruz and other international players. What we have here is a shared Soto DNA and the fact that the natural righty is hitting as a lefty like his big bro — and working hard. He is being signed on his potential and that last name.

TalkNats.com

If nothing else, it will serve as a gesture of good will between the Nationals and their star hitter.

January 3, 2022

Breaking the Breaking Ball Ceiling

An Australian Baseball League signed their first female pitcher:

The 2020 ABL Champion Melbourne Aces have signed Genevieve Beacom as a development player. She will be the first female pitcher in the league. It is huge, awesome news, and by the looks of her numbers, she has truly earned it.

BleacherNation.com

She’s hoping to use this as a stepping stone toward pitching for a US college team. Here’s wishing her much success!

November 21, 2021

Post Time

The Hiroshima Toyo Carp of Nippon Baseball announced they will post outfielder Seiya Suzuki.

The 27-year-old, Japan’s 2019 Home Run Derby champion, has spent nine seasons with the Central League’s Hiroshima Toyo Carp. He hit .319 with 38 homers and 88 RBIs this season and has a .315 career average with 182 homers and 562 RBIs.

ESPN.com

He owns a career .402 OBP and a .542 slugging percentage. As a point of comparison, Hideki Matsui hit .304/.413/.582 in Japan, and came to MLB two years older in seasonal age. I suspect his posting will bring a good price.

April 2, 2021

Foreign Drop

The number of MLB foreign-born players dropped for the 4th straight year:

More than 28% of Major League Baseball players were born outside the 50 states. That represents a drop for the fourth straight season, although this decrease was particularly small.

MLB said Friday there were 256 such players of the 906 on Opening Day rosters, injured lists, the restricted list and the paternity list.

AP via ESPN.com

The article mentions no reason behind this drop. The collective bargaining agreement signed in 2016, however, put restrictions on international signings:

There is no international draft, as Major League Baseball had initially proposed, but teams will now have bonus pools with hard caps. Gone are the days of teams being allowed to blow past their bonus pools, pay an overage tax and be limited to signings for no more than $300,000 the following two signing periods.

BaseballAmerica.com

The implementation of the draft in the middle 1960s made signing North American players more expensive, so teams eventually looked to countries not covered by the draft to find cheap talent. For the last few years, that talent has become more expensive, so, surprise, surprise, MLB is bringing in less talent from those markets.

Let’s go back to all amateurs being free agents, and let a free market decide how much these players are worth.

March 24, 2021 January 28, 2021

Tanaka Goes Home

Masahiro Tanaka signed a two-year deal with the Rakuten Golden Eagles of NPB, his former Japanese team. He thanked the Yankees fans with with announcement:

“I have decided to return to Japan and play for the Rakuten Eagles for the 2021 season,” he said. “I wanted to make sure and touch base with you, and thank you for all the love and support you have given me for the past seven seasons.

“I feel extremely fortunate for having the opportunity to take the field as a member of the New York Yankees, and play in front of all you passionate fans. It has been an honor and a privilege! Thank you so much!!”

SI.com

During his time in MLB, Tanaka proved to be very stingy with issuing walks. I think that sometimes hurt him,especially in allowing home runs. He made the most of his run support, however, going 78-46 in 174 games for a .629 winning percentage. It was a very nice, but brief, MLB career.

January 10, 2021 January 3, 2021

No Place Like Home

Masahiro Tanaka floats the possibility of signing with a Japanese baseball team:

The 32-year-old, along with most of his free-agency class, has been a casualty of the economic pain caused by the novel coronavirus, with clubs’ revenues slashed dramatically in 2020 and an uncertain forecast for the upcoming campaign.

NYPost.com

Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) manged to play 120 games of their 143 game season in 2020. I could imagine Tanaka signing a one-year deal that would likely provide him with more work, then coming back to the US when he’s sure to get paid for a full season. The probability is low that will happen, but given the current pandemic situation in the US, it’s not clear how many games the majors will play this season. It was clear last season that 60 games is the max they will play with no fans in the stands.

I have hoped for a long time that NPB would go after North American free agents. This might be the year those players could sign for a reasonable price.

December 28, 2020

Padres Keep Adding

Reports put Korean star Ha-seong Kim on the Padres roster:

The versatile Kim primarily played shortstop and third base in the KBO, and it is unclear where he would play with the Padres, who already have superstars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado at shortstop and third base, respectively.

ESPN.com

I would think off hand that Kim might fit at second base, giving the Padres a chance to flip Jake Cronenworth. Cronenworth showed little power in the minors, so maybe San Diego can get a deal given his good 2020 season. Kim would also provide some insurance in case Tommy Pham fails to return from his stabbing injury.

December 27, 2020

More on Arihara

National treasure David Laurila talks to former Harvard and major league pitcher Frank Herrmann. Herrmann saw Kohei Arihara up close:

“He’s a big bodied pitcher with a slightly above average fastball,” said Herrmann, who plays for the rival Chiba Lotte Marines. “Two years ago his split-finger was a plus pitch, but he didn’t use it nearly as much last season when he featured an average changeup. He holds his velocity (92-95) well, even as he gets over the 100 pitch mark. He would benefit by pitching off his fastball more as he tends to get, unnecessarily, off-speed heavy at times.  I think he projects as a 4/5 starter type that can give you innings and the occasional dominant start.  I’ve just seen him be pretty inconsistent in my four years playing against him, as he tends to trade good months and bad months.”

FanGraphs.com

I do wonder if the Rangers see something in Arihara that they can improve. Texas did bring Lance Lynn back to dominance. If it’s better pitch selection or improved spin rates, there might be a way make the good months more frequent than the bad months.

December 26, 2020

Texas Goes East

The Texas Rangers sign Japanese pitcher Kohei Arihara of the Nippon Ham Fighters to a two-year contract:

Arihara, 28, has a 3.74 ERA in six seasons with Japan’s Nippon Ham Fighters. He went 8-9 in 20 appearances for the team in 2020, with 106 strikeouts and a 3.46 ERA in 132? innings pitched.

ESPN.com

The contract is low, between $6 million and $7 million, so there is not much risk here. Arihara plays 2021 as a 28 year old, so he is still in his prime. He doesn’t seem to add much to the Rangers staff, however. Arihara’s strength lies in his low walk rate. He also allows a low number of hits compared to his K rate. Given those two positives, his 3.65 career ERA seems high. Someone who puts the ball in the strike zone without a lot of Ks might be someone who gets knocked around the majors. On top of that, he was not exactly an innings eater in Japan.

Here’s a scouting report on Arihara.

July 6, 2020 June 19, 2020

Playing in Japan

Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) began play in Japan, expecting to play 120 of their usual 143 game season.

All games in Japan will be played without fans until at least July. The league has also revised the schedule to limit travel. There will be periodic testing and quarantines and, according to league guidelines, players will be banned from spitting.

Teams can dress 26 players and choose from 31 players on an active roster. Non-baseball staff will wear masks.

FoxSports.com

Most of the games in Japan are played indoors, which allows them to go deeper into the calendar. That might prevent them from filling seats, however, if a second wave SARS-CoV-2 hits.

June 6, 2020 June 3, 2020 May 6, 2020

A Thousand Fans

The China Professional Baseball League on Taiwan will open their stadiums to 1000 fans:

The China Professional Baseball League said up to 1,000 people would be permitted to enter ballparks from Friday after an agreement between the league and Taiwan’s Central Epidemic Command Center.

Other baseball leagues around the world were still suspended last month when games began in Taiwan in empty stadiums. South Korea’s league commenced this week, also without fans in the stands.

FoxSports.com

This will help provide an example to MLB on how they might bring in fans. I still believe that 3,000 to 4,000 fans, staggered seats and rows, is very doable.

May 5, 2020

KBO Open

The Korean Baseball Organization started their championship season today, early in the morning in the United States:

After a weekslong delay because of the coronavirus pandemic, a hushed atmosphere allowed sounds, such as the ball hitting the catcher’s mitt and the bat hitting the ball for a single or double, to echo around the stadium.

There were faces in the stands at a game on Tuesday — pictures placed in the seating — because fans aren’t allowed into the venues for now.

As a result, it was easy to hear players cheering and shouting from the dugouts. It was a relief to fans watching from home in a country that is now attempting a slow return to pre-COVID-19 normalcy amid a waning caseload.

ESPN.com

ESPN is broadcasting six games a week from Korea, although the time difference makes it tough to watch on the east coast of the US. The west coast gets some of the game in prime time.

The KBO has this English language site where you can follow the season.

April 16, 2020 April 8, 2020

South Korea Gets Ready To Play

New cases of Covid-19 dropped in South Korea. Professional teams hope to start the season there in May.

“If the situation continues to improve from here and on, teams will start facing each other in preseason games beginning on April 21, and we should be able to get the regular season started in early May,” KBO secretary general Ryu Dae-hwan said after a meeting with club general managers in Seoul.

“Obviously, these scenarios will be feasible only if we have dramatically fewer confirmed cases in the coming days.”

ESPN.com

You can see the graphs of South Korea’s infection history here. New cases peaked on March 3, 2020, and over the last six days they have been under 100 cases a day. It’s not clear from the article if they will start with fans in the stands or not.

New cases in the US hit a local peak on April 4, 2020. If that indeed turns out to be the peak, and the US follows the South Korea fall off in cases, that would indicate a possible early June start to the MLB season.

March 19, 2020

Visits Moved Home

MLB made the decision to move some game scheduled for locals south of the border back to the home parks of the teams.

The San Diego Padres had been scheduled to play the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 18-19 in Mexico City, and the New York Mets were supposed to play the Miami Marlins on April 28-30 in San Juan. The games will be rescheduled for the home teams’ sites in Arizona and Miami, MLB said.

The games in Mexico City would have marked the first time MLB had played a regular-season game there.

ESPN.com

MLB continues to act like they can get in most of the season. It’s good they remain optimistic. No word on the London series yet.

March 9, 2020

Japan Postpones

Professional baseball in Japan postponed their season due to the coronavirus outbreak:

The season was to open on March 20. Japan’s professional league had been playing its preseason games without fans because of the virus.

“I personally believe that we have no choice but to postpone at this stage,” Japanese league commissioner Atsushi Saito said.

Baseball officials said they were unsure when the season might start, but mentioned some time in April.

ESPN.com

Japan had 511 cases of the virus so far, with seventeen deaths. Spring training in the US has been going on for two weeks now. So far there has not been a major outbreak in Florida or Arizona. Since the virus takes some time to manifest in illness, this week might be telling for the start of the North American season.

March 2, 2020

Virus Worries

The Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) season is in jeopardy due to the coronavirus.

The opening of the Japanese baseball season is in doubt because of the outbreak of the new virus, officials said Monday, as the nation’s baseball and soccer leagues tapped three medical experts as advisers.

Baseball commissioner Atsushi Saito said protecting fans, players and coaches was critical. Preseason games are being played in empty stadiums, with a hope the regular season can begin as scheduled on March 20.

But Saito acknowledged assessing whether the regular season can open — and with or without fans — is a delicate decision, noting the virus outbreak wasn’t expected to subside soon.

FoxSports.com

I could see keeping domed stadiums empty, where you need to recirculate the air. Of course, one of the problems with this virus is that it is contagious before symptoms appear, so even if sick people stay home, it can still spread.

January 6, 2020

Shogo Goes Red

The Reds sign Japanese star Shogo Akiyama to a three-year contract:

 Cincinnati Reds President of Baseball Operations Dick Williams Monday announced that free agent OF Shogo Akiyama has agreed to terms on a 3-year, $21-million contract through the 2022 season. The contract includes salaries of $6 million in 2020, $7 million in 2021 and $8 million in 2022.

“We scouted Shogo for several years in anticipation of his free agency,” Williams said. “We like his approach at the plate as well as his outfield defense, and we think he will complement our team very well.”

FoxSports.com

The money indicates the Reds expect him to be less than a one WAR player. In looking at his swing:

He reminds me of Ichiro, but with more power. He looks like a player who drags his bat through the strike zone, which gives him more of a chance to make contact. Think Derek Jeter and Tony Gwynn. If he does manage to make a lot of contact in MLB, he might approach 200 hits.

He is not young, already in this 30s, but given the money, he’s well worth the risk.

December 16, 2019

Rising Sun Rays

The Rays reach an agreement with Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, completing the posting process:

A left-handed-hitting corner outfielder, Tsutsugo batted .272 this year with 29 homers and 79 RBIs. He has a .285 average with 205 homers and 613 RBIs during 10 seasons with Yokohama, including 44 homers and 110 RBIs in 2016.

FoxSports.com

He posted excellent OBPs throughout his career. His seasonal age 24 season in 2016 was his best by far, suggesting he might have peaked early. I suspect his .284/.382/.525 career slash line will be more like .240/.340/.470 in the majors, will be just fine for the money, $12 million for two years.