Category Archives: Hit Streaks

August 29, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

After a hot start, Soloano slumped lately, three for 19 in his last five games. That dropped him off the .400 hitter prediction chart. Blackmon is falling fast out of .400 competition as well.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.295, 0.735 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Adrian Morejon.
  • 0.288, 0.724 — Howie Kendrick batting against Chris Mazza.
  • 0.275, 0.718 — Hanser Alberto batting against Taijuan Walker.
  • 0.297, 0.717 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.307, 0.717 — Donovan Solano batting against Luke Weaver.
  • 0.281, 0.714 — Tim Anderson batting against Brady Singer.
  • 0.293, 0.703 — Wilmer Flores batting against Luke Weaver.
  • 0.264, 0.701 — Ketel Marte batting against Trevor Cahill.
  • 0.277, 0.700 — Whit Merrifield batting against Dylan Cease.
  • 0.262, 0.695 — Jose Iglesias batting against Taijuan Walker.

Jose Iglesias returned to action on Friday and went two for five to keep his BA at .400. His probability of hitting .400 for the season now stands at 0.0083.

Blackmon is the consensus first pick, with Solano and Tatis tied for the consensus second pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 28, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

I’m very interested to see how the NN sees the Cruz-Boyd match-up. Cruz, a great hitter for a long time, is having a fantastic tail of a career. Since joining the Twins at seasonal age 38, he hit .312/.394/.641 compared to his career average through seasonal age 37 of .274/.342/.518. The later two seasons are starting to dominate the three-year hit average parameter for Cruz. Boyd is getting knocked around. He owns a .373 BABIP this season, and allows 2.51 HR per 9 IP.

These two systems are based on a stat I call hit average, hits/plate appearance. I have sometimes thought about trying to break this out into components of hit average, including home run rate and strikeout rate. I can imagine that a home runner hitter facing a pitcher who gives up home runs might have a higher probability of a hit that day than against a pitcher who induces a lot of ground balls, for example. This is situation where the components of Cruz’s and Boyd’s hit averages might actually produce a higher probability of a hit than hit average alone.

Without further ado, the NN picks:

  • 0.285, 0.735 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zach Davies.
  • 0.271, 0.715 — Howie Kendrick batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.282, 0.710 — Ketel Marte batting against Tyler Anderson.
  • 0.271, 0.709 — Hanser Alberto batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
  • 0.264, 0.708 — Tim Anderson batting against Daniel Duffy.
  • 0.280, 0.702 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.285, 0.701 — David Fletcher batting against Nick Margevicius.
  • 0.277, 0.701 — Whit Merrifield batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
  • 0.285, 0.692 — Luis Arraez batting against Matt Boyd.
  • 0.270, 0.691 — Starling Marte batting against Tyler Anderson.
  • 0.290, 0.690 — Nelson Cruz batting against Matt Boyd.

Cruz drops to eleventh here. Boyd’s regressed hit average this season is a terrible .263, as the MLB average stands at .215. In term so importance to the NN, however, this parameter ranks fourth. In the Log5 calculation, it’s weighted equally. My gut is the NN is ranking this match-up too low. I hope in the future I have time to explore this more.

Charlie Blackmon gets consensus first pick, with Ketel Marte the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 27, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

You will need to be careful choosing today, and we don’t know how many games might be canceled due to protests. There are also a number of doubleheaders scheduled to make up for last night’s postponed games, so be aware when choosing a player that you are choosing against the correct pitcher.

In any event, Ketel Marte is nearly always a good pick. Marte combines power with a low strikeout rate. Since the start of the 2018 seasons, 27 players produced a .500 slugging percentage in at least 1200 plate apparances (PA). A few stand out with low strikeout totals; Marte, Jose Ramirez, Anthony Rendon, and Alex Bregman reached that with less than 200 K. Mookie Betts, Nolan Arenado, and Francisco Lindor achieved that power with total Ks in the low 200s. The argument for batters with high strikeout rates is that the power makes up to the hits lost from not putting the ball in play. These seven batters provide a counter to that argument, and it’s a reason that they are highly valued, and those that reached some form of contract leverage are highly paid.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.291, 0.721 — Howie Kendrick batting against Spencer Howard.
  • 0.292, 0.716 — Ketel Marte batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.269, 0.716 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zac Gallen.
  • 0.289, 0.715 — Hanser Alberto batting against Ryan Yarbrough.
  • 0.286, 0.702 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.292, 0.698 — Mookie Betts batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.280, 0.697 — Starling Marte batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.285, 0.692 — Luis Arraez batting against Matt Boyd.
  • 0.290, 0.690 — Nelson Cruz batting against Matt Boyd.
  • 0.281, 0.689 — Trea Turner batting against Spencer Howard.

Ketel Marte gets consensus first choice, although Kendrick will carry the banner in the NN spreadsheet. Kendrick is also the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 26, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Ketel Marte puts the ball in play. Since the start of the 2018 season, he struck out just 182 times, and walked 111 times in 1337 PA. A number of battters in this era could be expected to strike out 182 times in a single season.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.294, 0.729 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Robbie Ray.
  • 0.301, 0.728 — Tim Anderson batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.307, 0.725 — Ketel Marte batting against Jonathan Gray.
  • 0.301, 0.723 — Hanser Alberto batting against Trevor Richards.
  • 0.288, 0.698 — Starling Marte batting against Jonathan Gray.
  • 0.292, 0.698 — Mookie Betts batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.292, 0.697 — Alex Verdugo batting against Wilmer Font.
  • 0.287, 0.697 — Jose Abreu batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.289, 0.695 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Wilmer Font.
  • 0.244, 0.691 — Howie Kendrick batting against Aaron Nola.

Blackmon went 0 for 3 with two walks Tuesday night to fall below .400. Ketel Marte is the consensus first pick, with Blackmon second.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 25, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Blackmon did not play Monday, as the Rockies try to keep their star hitter rested. Note that the Mets and Marlins play a doubleheader today, so be careful which game you choose, and remember that a seven inning game presents less of a chance for a batter to get a hit.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.307, 0.739 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Alex Young.
  • 0.300, 0.727 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jake Arrieta.
  • 0.305, 0.724 — Ketel Marte batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.306, 0.714 — Corey Dickerson batting against Rick Porcello.
  • 0.268, 0.709 — Tim Anderson batting against Steven Brault.
  • 0.293, 0.701 — Trea Turner batting against Jake Arrieta.
  • 0.286, 0.698 — Starling Marte batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.281, 0.698 — Michael Brantley batting against Jose Suarez.
  • 0.272, 0.694 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.265, 0.693 — Whit Merrifield batting against Adam Wainwright.
  • 0.297, 0.693 — Miguel Rojas batting against Rick Porcello.

Blackmon keeps coming up number one. Ketel Marte and Howie Kendrick tie for consensus second pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 24, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Methold picks:

Blackmon stands 45 for 111 on the season, a .405 BA. An 0 for 3 takes him below .400, however. The team moves to Arizona, however, which is a good park for hitters. He is hitting .365/.411/.500 on the road.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.315, 0.747 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Merrill Kelly.
  • 0.281, 0.715 — Howie Kendrick batting against Pablo Lopez.
  • 0.272, 0.705 — Ketel Marte batting against Ryan Castellani.
  • 0.274, 0.688 — Trea Turner batting against Pablo Lopez.
  • 0.270, 0.686 — Trevor Story batting against Merrill Kelly.
  • 0.260, 0.679 — Corey Dickerson batting against Austin Voth.
  • 0.265, 0.676 — Nelson Cruz batting against Aaron Civale.
  • 0.247, 0.676 — Whit Merrifield batting against Jack Flaherty.
  • 0.255, 0.674 — Michael Brantley batting against Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.251, 0.673 — Starling Marte batting against Ryan Castellani.
  • 0.258, 0.673 — David Fletcher batting against Framber Valdez.
  • 0.275, 0.673 — Brandon Lowe batting against Tanner Roark.

Blackmon tops the list again and Kendrick is the consensus second pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 23, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Blackmon went 0 for 4 Saturday night, and can fall under .400 with a poor game today. Looks like the Red Sox are expected to have a good day against Wade LeBlanc.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.329, 0.749 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ross Stripling.
  • 0.317, 0.732 — Hanser Alberto batting against Zachary Godley.
  • 0.310, 0.718 — Donovan Solano batting against Luke Weaver.
  • 0.305, 0.717 — Wilmer Flores batting against Luke Weaver.
  • 0.282, 0.712 — Ketel Marte batting against Trevor Cahill.
  • 0.264, 0.706 — Tim Anderson batting against Yu Darvish.
  • 0.262, 0.701 — Howie Kendrick batting against Humberto Mejia.
  • 0.291, 0.697 — Alex Verdugo batting against Wade LeBlanc.
  • 0.260, 0.694 — Whit Merrifield batting against Matt Wisler.
  • 0.284, 0.692 — Trevor Story batting against Ross Stripling.

Blackmon’s hitless day ended the NN streak at seven games, the longest of the season so far. Blackmon and Alberto stand as the 1-2 picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 22, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Blackmon continues to maintain a .400 BA, now at .417. He would need to go 0 for 6 to fall below .400. May walks few batters, so he should give Blackmon a chance to put a good pitch in play.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.320, 0.744 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Dustin May.
  • 0.304, 0.725 — Ketel Marte batting against Tyler Anderson.
  • 0.290, 0.722 — Tim Anderson batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.280, 0.717 — Hanser Alberto batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.265, 0.705 — Howie Kendrick batting against Daniel Castano.
  • 0.265, 0.703 — Howie Kendrick batting against Sixto Sanchez.
  • 0.287, 0.701 — Starling Marte batting against Tyler Anderson.
  • 0.282, 0.691 — David Peralta batting against Tyler Anderson.
  • 0.257, 0.687 — Donovan Solano batting against Zac Gallen.
  • 0.276, 0.686 — Mookie Betts batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.282, 0.686 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Robert Erlin.
  • 0.252, 0.686 — Wilmer Flores batting against Zac Gallen.

You can pick Howie Kendrick in either game of the doubleheader. Remember, however, that the probabilities are pretty much based on a full game, so in a seven inning affair, batters likely get fewer plate appearances.

Blackmon and Ketel Marte and the unanimous 1-2 picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 21, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Anderson’s strikeouts are up a bit this season, but he appears to be hitting the ball harder as he’s maintaining a high batting average to go with his high slugging percentage. A higher strikeout rate with the same BABIP won’t hurt batting average if it is accompanied by more home runs, and Anderson is hitting long balls this season.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.291, 0.727 — Tim Anderson batting against Jon Lester.
  • 0.280, 0.725 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Walker Buehler.
  • 0.290, 0.721 — Hanser Alberto batting against Colten Brewer.
  • 0.289, 0.715 — Ketel Marte batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.265, 0.705 — Howie Kendrick batting against Daniel Castano.
  • 0.268, 0.695 — Donovan Solano batting against Robbie Ray.
  • 0.263, 0.688 — Whit Merrifield batting against Jake Odorizzi.
  • 0.271, 0.688 — Starling Marte batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.259, 0.687 — Wilmer Flores batting against Robbie Ray.
  • 0.286, 0.687 — David Fletcher batting against Michael Fiers.

Anderson tops this list as well, with Alberto the consensus second choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 20, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Amazingly, Charlie Blackmon does not make the list. It does look like a good day for the Orioles, and Alberto in general is an excellent pick.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.325, 0.740 — Hanser Alberto batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
  • 0.273, 0.726 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Cristian Javier.
  • 0.303, 0.716 — Ketel Marte batting against Sean Manaea.
  • 0.295, 0.715 — Donovan Solano batting against Jose Suarez.
  • 0.275, 0.713 — Tim Anderson batting against Spencer Turnbull.
  • 0.288, 0.699 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Kyle Gibson.
  • 0.279, 0.699 — Wilmer Flores batting against Jose Suarez.
  • 0.288, 0.699 — Mookie Betts batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.292, 0.698 — Starling Marte batting against Sean Manaea.
  • 0.270, 0.696 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against German Marquez.

This is where I like the NN picks better. Log5 weights the pitcher and batter evenly, but the NN is better at picking out the batter doing well both long and short term, regardless of the opponent. Alberto is still the first choice, however, with Ketel Marte the consensus second choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 19, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

The Rockies return to Colorado today which should give Blackmon a boost. Anderson is slated to do well versus Casey Mize of the Tigers, Mize making his anticipated major league debut. Mize has a great name, a throwback to players of a century ago.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.295, 0.735 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Framber Valdez.
  • 0.291, 0.722 — Hanser Alberto batting against Tanner Roark.
  • 0.276, 0.712 — Tim Anderson batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.272, 0.709 — Howie Kendrick batting against Kyle Wright.
  • 0.280, 0.702 — Ketel Marte batting against Jesus Luzardo.
  • 0.274, 0.698 — Donovan Solano batting against Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.283, 0.695 — Jorge Polanco batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.285, 0.694 — Nelson Cruz batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.275, 0.692 — Starling Marte batting against Jesus Luzardo.
  • 0.280, 0.689 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jake Arrieta.

The two systems agree on Blackmon and Alberto as the top two picks. The NN, however, pretty much reject the Red Sox hitters against Arrieta. Blackmon was the number one pick in 12 of the last 14 days.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 18, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Blackmon continues to top the list. The Rockies picked up just two hits against Houston last night, and Blackmon collected one of them. It also looks like a good day for the Phillies offense.

Here are the NN picks:

Both systems like Blackmon as the top choice, with Gurriel as the consensus number two.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 17, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

It looks like a good day to hit for the White Sox. Matt Boyd of the Tigers comes into the game with a 10.24 ERA in 19 1/3 innings. He’s allowed 30 hits despite a good K per 9 IP. On top of that Anderson is an excellent hitter.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.292, 0.728 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Brandon Bielak.
  • 0.299, 0.715 — Tim Anderson batting against Matt Boyd.
  • 0.275, 0.712 — Hanser Alberto batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
  • 0.263, 0.702 — Howie Kendrick batting against Touki Toussaint.
  • 0.280, 0.700 — Donovan Solano batting against Griffin Canning.
  • 0.268, 0.698 — Jose Iglesias batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
  • 0.271, 0.691 — Michael Brantley batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.256, 0.690 — Ketel Marte batting against Chris Bassitt.
  • 0.260, 0.688 — Whit Merrifield batting against Matt Wisler.
  • 0.260, 0.686 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Martin Perez.

The NN downplays Boyd’s poor start. Of the four player related parameters, the current year pitcher stats provide the least weight. We tend to see the better hitters on this list. Anderson and Blackmon are the consensus 1-2 picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 16, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Solano is off to a great start this season, with a 1 in 100 chance of hitting .400 for the year. One reason for that, however, is that his playing time is limited, so make sure he is in the starting lineup!

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.291, 0.734 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Kolby Allard.
  • 0.287, 0.725 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chris Mazza.
  • 0.309, 0.719 — Donovan Solano batting against Michael Fiers.
  • 0.268, 0.709 — Hanser Alberto batting against Max Scherzer.
  • 0.261, 0.702 — Howie Kendrick batting against John Means.
  • 0.276, 0.702 — Tim Anderson batting against Dakota Hudson.
  • 0.279, 0.701 — Jeff McNeil batting against Zack Wheeler.
  • 0.275, 0.699 — Ketel Marte batting against Garrett Richards.
  • 0.288, 0.698 — Wilmer Flores batting against Michael Fiers.
  • 0.288, 0.697 — Corey Dickerson batting against Robert Erlin.

The Marlins don’t look quite as good against Erlin according to the NN. Blackmon is the consensus first choice, Solano the double down pick.

August 15, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

The three qualifying .400 hitters make the top of the list. Any one of them gave you good results this season. Here are their probabilities of hitting .400 for the season. It’s also a good day to be a Marte.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.319, 0.748 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Kyle Gibson.
  • 0.327, 0.748 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
  • 0.313, 0.719 — Donovan Solano batting against Sean Manaea.
  • 0.281, 0.713 — Tim Anderson batting against Adam Wainwright.
  • 0.274, 0.711 — Hanser Alberto batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.279, 0.703 — Ketel Marte batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.262, 0.703 — Howie Kendrick batting against Asher Wojciechowski.
  • 0.266, 0.700 — Tim Anderson batting against Alexander Reyes.
  • 0.280, 0.696 — Daniel Murphy batting against Kyle Gibson.
  • 0.277, 0.696 — Starling Marte batting against Cal Quantrill.

Note that although I post probabilities to three decimal places, the sort is on the more precise calculation. So Blackmon is first in this list. He is tied with LeMahieu for the consensus top two picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 14, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 picks:

The Red Sox have not made an official announcement about a starter, so keep your eye open for that. LeMahieu may be a good pick no matter who is on the mound. He’s batting .431 to lead the AL, and I give him a 0.0074 probability of hitting .400 this season.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.269, 0.725 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Lance Lynn.
  • 0.291, 0.723 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ryan Brasier.
  • 0.288, 0.719 — Hanser Alberto batting against Stephen Strasburg.
  • 0.282, 0.717 — Howie Kendrick batting against Tom Milone.
  • 0.285, 0.701 — Michael Brantley batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.263, 0.695 — Donovan Solano batting against Frankie Montas.
  • 0.271, 0.689 — Jose Iglesias batting against Stephen Strasburg.
  • 0.278, 0.688 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Merrill Kelly.
  • 0.263, 0.688 — Jeff McNeil batting against Spencer Howard.
  • 0.279, 0.688 — Jorge Polanco batting against Jakob Junis.

I seldom see this, where the top pick in the NN doesn’t appear in the top ten of the Log5. Charlie Blackmon pulls it off. He is facing Lance Lynn, who owns low single season and three-year hit averages. The NN, however, weights the batter component much more, and when one throws in the park, Blackmon comes out on top.

LeMahieu and Alberto are the consensus 1-2 picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 13, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

There are only a few games today, and the Log5 Method indicates the Orioles should have a pretty good day against Arrieta. Iglesias does not start often, so be careful to look at the lineups before you pick him.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.305, 0.731 — Hanser Alberto batting against Jake Arrieta.
  • 0.275, 0.711 — Howie Kendrick batting against David Peterson.
  • 0.287, 0.703 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jake Arrieta.
  • 0.269, 0.678 — Javier Baez batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.246, 0.675 — Jeff McNeil batting against Austin Voth.
  • 0.250, 0.670 — Kevin Newman batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
  • 0.255, 0.669 — Nick Castellanos batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.247, 0.662 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Julio Urias.
  • 0.252, 0.659 — Starlin Castro batting against David Peterson.
  • 0.245, 0.655 — Mookie Betts batting against Chris Paddack.

Both systems agree on Alberto as the top pick, with either Iglesias or Kendrick as a double down choice. I like that Fernando Tatis, Jr. is working his way into the top ten.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 12, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Blackmon, with his .500 BA, blows away the competition today.

The Mets may send Walker Lockett to the mound against the Nationals. Not only is Walker a poor name for a pitcher, but it reminds me of Bridgeport’s own Walter Luckett, a basketball star of the city where I grew up.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.339, 0.759 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Luke Weaver.
  • 0.300, 0.727 — Hanser Alberto batting against Zach Eflin.
  • 0.300, 0.722 — Ketel Marte batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.286, 0.715 — Howie Kendrick batting against Walker Lockett.
  • 0.275, 0.706 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Huascar Ynoa.
  • 0.291, 0.706 — Starling Marte batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.295, 0.705 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luke Weaver.
  • 0.290, 0.704 — Tim Anderson batting against Matt Boyd.
  • 0.284, 0.702 — Donovan Solano batting against Zack Greinke.
  • 0.281, 0.697 — Jeff McNeil batting against Anibal Sanchez.

Blackmon’s probability of a hit today stands at .759. The highest single day probability seen so far was Blackmon’s .721 yesterday. Alberto and Ketel Marte are tied for consensus second choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 11, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Alberto ranks third in hits in the AL with 22 despite the Orioles missing some games due to the Marlins COVID-19 breakout. He has one walk, one HBP, and six strikeouts in 65 PA this season. He’s putting the ball in play.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.282, 0.721 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zac Gallen.
  • 0.293, 0.719 — Hanser Alberto batting against Zack Wheeler.
  • 0.287, 0.711 — Ketel Marte batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.291, 0.710 — Howie Kendrick batting against Rick Porcello.
  • 0.277, 0.708 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Touki Toussaint.
  • 0.279, 0.693 — Jose Iglesias batting against Zack Wheeler.
  • 0.274, 0.691 — Michael Brantley batting against Tyler Anderson.
  • 0.265, 0.688 — Donovan Solano batting against Brandon Bielak.
  • 0.271, 0.687 — Starling Marte batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.269, 0.678 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Andrew Kittredge.

The NN appears to be picking up Blackmon’s and Solano’s hot starts better than the Log5 Method. The probability of Blackmon hitting .400 after his four for five night is 0.0184, nearly 2%. Solano is second at 0.0126. They both put down a great base to start the season.

Alberto is the consensus first pick, Blackmon the consensus second pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 10, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method Picks:

Kendrick beats out the two .400 hitters on list. Balls in play against Matz earn about .300 BABIP. His strikeout rate is okay, but with few walks and a lot of home runs, there is ample opportunity for hits.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.288, 0.716 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Robbie Ray.
  • 0.291, 0.707 — Howie Kendrick batting against Steven Matz.
  • 0.290, 0.694 — Donovan Solano batting against Lance McCullers.
  • 0.272, 0.693 — Ketel Marte batting against Jonathan Gray.
  • 0.270, 0.682 — Michael Brantley batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.265, 0.681 — Starling Marte batting against Jonathan Gray.
  • 0.283, 0.678 — Starlin Castro batting against Steven Matz.
  • 0.259, 0.673 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robbie Ray.
  • 0.267, 0.672 — Wilmer Flores batting against Lance McCullers.
  • 0.254, 0.672 — Jeff McNeil batting against Patrick Corbin.

The NN likes Blackmon, and I suspect the park has a some effect here. The three-year hit average at Coors stands at .266. At Citi Field it’s just .218.

Kendrick is the consensus first choice, with Blackmon and Solano tied for consensus second choice. Note that Solano owns the longest current hit streak at 14 games, Blackmon second at 13 games.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 9, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Solano and Blackmon own batting averages well over .400 right now. Blackmon rates much higher as he has a longer period a high probability of getting a hit. I am tracking the probability of players reaching .400 for the season, and Solano now owns a better than a 1 in 100 chance of sustaining that number. Solano’s probability sits at .0108, Blackmon at .0.0047. Musings Marcels projected Blackmon with a .299 BA for the season, Solano .292. What’s really working for Solano is his limited playing time. He’s projected to accumulate 195 AB on the season, while Blackmon projects to 240 AB. It’s much easier to hit .400 the lower the number of AB.

I would also not be surprised to see Daniel Murphy heat up and take a shot at the number.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.292, 0.713 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Justus Sheffield.
  • 0.283, 0.703 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Charlie Morton.
  • 0.270, 0.699 — Hanser Alberto batting against Stephen Strasburg.
  • 0.257, 0.688 — Howie Kendrick batting against Asher Wojciechowski.
  • 0.266, 0.687 — Jeff McNeil batting against Pablo Lopez.
  • 0.266, 0.682 — Donovan Solano batting against Walker Buehler.
  • 0.265, 0.681 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Charlie Morton.
  • 0.282, 0.679 — Mookie Betts batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.261, 0.678 — Jose Iglesias batting against Stephen Strasburg.
  • 0.262, 0.678 — Whit Merrifield batting against Jose Berrios.

The two systems agreee on Blackmon, with LeMahieu the consensus second pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 8, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

The Yankees and Rays play a double header today, so you should check which game Beeks starts. I updated the list of .400 hitter probabilities, adding Blackmon and Jose Iglesias to the mix. Both Blackmon and LeMahieu have better than a 1 in 500 chance of finishing the season with a .400 BA.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.293, 0.716 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jalen Beeks.
  • 0.293, 0.712 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Nick Margevicius.
  • 0.267, 0.697 — Hanser Alberto batting against Austin Voth.
  • 0.263, 0.693 — Howie Kendrick batting against Tom Eshelman.
  • 0.286, 0.692 — Nick Castellanos batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.270, 0.685 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Jalen Beeks.
  • 0.279, 0.684 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.277, 0.681 — Kevin Newman batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.244, 0.681 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Tyler Glasnow.
  • 0.260, 0.680 — Jose Iglesias batting against Austin Voth.

So LeMahieu comes out on top with Blackmon the double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 7, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Blackmon owns a .396 BA so far this season. He is putting the ball in play, with eight strikeouts and two walks in 51 plate appearances. His home/road split is already deep, however, with a .481 BA at home, .286 on the road. Seattle tends to be a tougher park for hitters.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.303, 0.718 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.280, 0.703 — Howie Kendrick batting against Tom Milone.
  • 0.276, 0.702 — Hanser Alberto batting against Anibal Sanchez.
  • 0.272, 0.700 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Blake Snell.
  • 0.283, 0.698 — Ketel Marte batting against Zach Davies.
  • 0.285, 0.690 — Nelson Cruz batting against Jakob Junis.
  • 0.281, 0.690 — Corey Dickerson batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.275, 0.689 — Whit Merrifield batting against Devin Smeltzer.
  • 0.273, 0.684 — Nick Castellanos batting against Eric Lauer.
  • 0.271, 0.682 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tanner Roark.

The NN does take into account the park and still puts Blackmon at the top. Ketel Marte turns out to be the consensus second pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 5, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

The Yankees and Phillies are playing a doubleheader.

Here are the NN Picks:

  • 0.293, 0.712 — Howie Kendrick batting against Rick Porcello.
  • 0.284, 0.708 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zack Wheeler.
  • 0.280, 0.708 — Hanser Alberto batting against Elieser Hernandez.
  • 0.284, 0.700 — Corey Dickerson batting against Alex Cobb.
  • 0.276, 0.697 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.270, 0.697 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Aaron Nola.
  • 0.263, 0.686 — Michael Brantley batting against Robbie Ray.
  • 0.253, 0.685 — Hanser Alberto batting against Jordan Yamamoto.
  • 0.269, 0.685 — Jose Iglesias batting against Elieser Hernandez.
  • 0.265, 0.684 — Wilmer Flores batting against Jonathan Gray.
  • 0.278, 0.684 — Nelson Cruz batting against Trevor Williams.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 4, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the NN picks:

It looks like a good day to be a Rockies batter. Batters are 12 for 35 against Gausman this season. He walked one and struck out ten in 37 PA, so when bats meet his pitches, good outcomes happen.

The NN picks:

  • 0.298, 0.713 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.276, 0.699 — Michael Brantley batting against Madison Bumgarner.
  • 0.284, 0.690 — Daniel Murphy batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.284, 0.689 — Trevor Story batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.281, 0.687 — David Dahl batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.266, 0.687 — Howie Kendrick batting against Steven Matz.
  • 0.278, 0.687 — Nolan Arenado batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.259, 0.682 — Wilmer Flores batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.263, 0.681 — Donovan Solano batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.250, 0.680 — Jeff McNeil batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.264, 0.680 — Whit Merrifield batting against Kyle Hendricks.

The two systems agree on Blackmon, with Murphy the consensus second choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 3, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Urshela may turn out to be the best move Brian Cashman ever made. So far in 2020, he’s proving 2019 was not a fluke.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.291, 0.713 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jake Arrieta.
  • 0.267, 0.691 — Jeff McNeil batting against Michael Soroka.
  • 0.275, 0.690 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Jake Arrieta.
  • 0.263, 0.687 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Johnny Cueto.
  • 0.257, 0.671 — Donovan Solano batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
  • 0.266, 0.669 — Leury Garcia batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.247, 0.666 — Wilmer Flores batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
  • 0.263, 0.665 — Yoan Moncada batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.245, 0.664 — Nick Castellanos batting against Zach Plesac.
  • 0.253, 0.663 — J.D. Davis batting against Michael Soroka.
  • 0.240, 0.663 — Whit Merrifield batting against Alec Mills.
  • 0.250, 0.663 — Daniel Murphy batting against Johnny Cueto.

Both systems agree on LeMahieu as the top pick, with McNeil and Urshela tied for the consensus second pick. I’m surprised anyone lists as expected to do well against Soroka.

Donovan Solano leads the NL in batting average at .484. His probability of hitting .400 for the season stands at 0.0043. At this point he would need to go 0 for 8 to fall below .400.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 2, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

I like Anderson as a streak hitter. He puts the ball in play, has some power, and his strikeouts are low relative to the league. If he could cut his K rate by about 40%, he would post a scary high average.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.281, 0.704 — Tim Anderson batting against Jakob Junis.
  • 0.272, 0.700 — Hanser Alberto batting against Yonny Chirinos.
  • 0.276, 0.696 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zach Davies.
  • 0.279, 0.692 — Whit Merrifield batting against Dylan Cease.
  • 0.264, 0.689 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Austin Brice.
  • 0.274, 0.686 — Nick Castellanos batting against Daniel Norris.
  • 0.277, 0.680 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.267, 0.680 — Trevor Story batting against Zach Davies.
  • 0.260, 0.679 — Michael Brantley batting against Shohei Ohtani.
  • 0.257, 0.678 — Jeff McNeil batting against Kyle Wright.
  • 0.263, 0.678 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zach Davies.

The two systems agree on Anderson, with Merrifield the consensus second pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Update: I see that Tim Anderson just went on the illjured list. That makes Merrifield the consensus first pick and Alberto second.

August 1, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the NN picks:

LeMahieu took a couple of days to get back into action, but owns a five-game hit streak with a .455 BA. He is six for twenty against Godley in his career with three strikeouts.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.286, 0.708 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zachary Godley.
  • 0.266, 0.685 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Joey Lucchesi.
  • 0.258, 0.683 — Tim Anderson batting against Ronald Bolanos.
  • 0.272, 0.682 — Nick Castellanos batting against Michael Fulmer.
  • 0.258, 0.679 — Jeff McNeil batting against Touki Toussaint.
  • 0.240, 0.678 — Hanser Alberto batting against Tyler Glasnow.
  • 0.265, 0.678 — Whit Merrifield batting against Gio Gonzalez.
  • 0.256, 0.677 — Michael Brantley batting against Griffin Canning.
  • 0.278, 0.677 — Ramon Laureano batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.261, 0.671 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Zachary Godley.
  • 0.256, 0.671 — Nolan Arenado batting against Joey Lucchesi.

The NN agrees on LeMahieu as the top choice. Nick Castellanos comes in as the consensus second choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 31, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method picks:

LeMahieu is off to a great start, batting .412 with just one strikeout in 17 at bats. He’s putting the ball in play with good results.

The NN picks:

  • 0.275, 0.693 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ryan Weber.
  • 0.271, 0.688 — Michael Brantley batting against Matt Andriese.
  • 0.270, 0.685 — Whit Merrifield batting against Dallas Keuchel.
  • 0.253, 0.680 — Hanser Alberto batting against Blake Snell.
  • 0.250, 0.674 — Tim Anderson batting against Kris Bubic.
  • 0.250, 0.672 — Jeff McNeil batting against Sean Newcomb.
  • 0.257, 0.670 — Nick Castellanos batting against Spencer Turnbull.
  • 0.265, 0.668 — Javier Baez batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.265, 0.662 — Jose Martinez batting against Alex Cobb.
  • 0.247, 0.662 — Jose Iglesias batting against Blake Snell.
  • 0.267, 0.662 — Freddie Freeman batting against Rick Porcello.

The two systems agree on LeMahieu and Brantley as the top two picks. Notice, however, that the middle of the lists are quite different, as the NN puts more weight on long-term success.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 30, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

It looks like this should be a good day for the Mets.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.290, 0.703 — Whit Merrifield batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.283, 0.694 — Jeff McNeil batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.265, 0.688 — DJ LeMahieu batting against John Means.
  • 0.266, 0.688 — Hanser Alberto batting against J.A. Happ.
  • 0.274, 0.677 — David Fletcher batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.264, 0.676 — Jose Iglesias batting against J.A. Happ.
  • 0.256, 0.675 — Corey Dickerson batting against John Means.
  • 0.254, 0.675 — Howie Kendrick batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
  • 0.261, 0.673 — Ketel Marte batting against Ross Stripling.
  • 0.273, 0.672 — Wilson Ramos batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.274, 0.672 — Amed Rosario batting against Martin Perez.

Merrifield and Alberto both own .306 batting averages since the start of the 2019 season. They get their differently, as Merrifield strikes out much more often than Alberto. Merrifield needs a higher BABIP to support that batting average, and his much greater power speaks to that. Merrifield also walks more, with a high OBP.

Merrifield and McNeil are the consensus 1-2 picks today.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!