For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.293 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Nick Margevicius.
• 0.293 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jalen Beeks.
• 0.286 — Nick Castellanos batting against Brett Anderson.
• 0.279 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.277 — Kevin Newman batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.271 — Erik Gonzalez batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.270 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Jalen Beeks.
• 0.269 — Colin Moran batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.268 — Nick Markakis batting against Jake Arrieta.
• 0.267 — Hanser Alberto batting against Austin Voth.

The Yankees and Rays play a double header today, so you should check which game Beeks starts. I updated the list of .400 hitter probabilities, adding Blackmon and Jose Iglesias to the mix. Both Blackmon and LeMahieu have better than a 1 in 500 chance of finishing the season with a .400 BA.

Here are the NN picks:

• 0.293, 0.716 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jalen Beeks.
• 0.293, 0.712 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Nick Margevicius.
• 0.267, 0.697 — Hanser Alberto batting against Austin Voth.
• 0.263, 0.693 — Howie Kendrick batting against Tom Eshelman.
• 0.286, 0.692 — Nick Castellanos batting against Brett Anderson.
• 0.270, 0.685 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Jalen Beeks.
• 0.279, 0.684 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.277, 0.681 — Kevin Newman batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.244, 0.681 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Tyler Glasnow.
• 0.260, 0.680 — Jose Iglesias batting against Austin Voth.

So LeMahieu comes out on top with Blackmon the double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!