Category Archives: Offense

April 21, 2025

Weekly Look at Offense

Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the offense of the previous year through the same number of full weeks. Through three full weeks the majors produced 8.63 runs per game compared to 8.89 R/G in 2024. That’s much tighter than last week as the majors produced 8.81 runs per game this week, while week three of 2024 8.16 run per game, the weakest week three in the study that goes back to 2015.

The overall drop in offense comes despite home run trending higher than last season 2.13 HR/G in 2025 versus 1.98 in 2024. Walks are pretty much dead even, but strikeouts are down. Once again, fewer strikeouts means more balls in play, but BABIP dropped from .291 to .283. Doubles and triples are on par with last season, 0.0443 per PA this season versus 0.0446 in 2024. It’s singles that are down, 0.138 per PA against 0.143 last season. So overall batters reaching base is down from 14.24 per game in 2024 to 13.64 per game in 2025.

Fielders got ahead of hitters again. I really think there is low hanging fruit here. A lineup of batters who try to “hit it where they ain’t” might do very well in this environment. Shifts offer batters free hits. Why they don’t take them is beyond me.

April 20, 2025

Close Day

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Ten games on Saturday finished with the teams within two runs of each other. That’s the fourth time this season a day saw ten games that close. The unusual thing about the day came from the lack of blowouts. No team won by five runs or more. Since the start of the 2020 season, only three days saw no blowouts on a fifteen game schedule. June 5, 2022, saw eleven one or two run decisions, the only day with slightly closer games than Saturday.

April 17, 2025

Tip Top

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The Diamondback came into Thursday’s game against the Marlins with a wide talent gap between the top and bottom of the order. All of the top four slots were hitting for high averages, three of them owned OBPs over .400, and and three of them slugged better than .500. the bottom five mostly struggled in all three categories.

That split held up this afternoon as the top four combined for five hits, five walks, a double and two home runs in the 6-4 win. The bottom five did not collect a hit and drew four walks.

This isn’t a bad way to construct an offense. Keeping the four good hitters together at the top gets them to the plate a little more often, and the team can generate an offensive series. It also gives the five and six hitters plenty of RBI opportunities, especially if they put the ball in play. The DBacks came into the day third in the NL in runs/game, and the six they scored against Miami didn’t hurt that standing.

April 14, 2025

Weekly Look at Offense

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Every Monday Baseball Musings compares offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through two full weeks, MLB averaged 8.55 runs per game compared to 9.19 runs per game the in 2024.

The lower scoring came from a collapse of hits on balls in play. Home runs are slightly lower, 2.07 per game this year versus 2.11 per game in 2024. Walks are about as even as they can get, 6.897 per game in 2025 versus 6.894 in 2024. Strikeouts are down from 17.22 per game to 16.91 per game.

With strikeouts down, walks and home runs the same, there should be more balls in play and more non-home run hits. Instead, those hits are down from 14.39 in 2024 to 13.45 in 2025. Another way of measuring that is BABIP, which dropped from .294 to .281.

I will note there was a lot of bad weather this week, which does hurt offense. The Rockies, however, were shutout three times in a row in San Diego, a city known for it’s consistently pleasant climate.

While weather played a factor, I believe in the third season of the restrictive shift rules that MLB defenses figured out the best way to position players to stop hits. In 2023, Joey Votto did this ad:

He hits a ball up the middle and it goes between the two infielders. “That’s a hit now?” he asks when he reaches first base.

Last night, Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers pinch hit in the bottom of the ninth. He scorched a grounder up the middle, a sure hit, but Dansby Swanson, shifted way toward second base, was right there to scoop up the ball and throw Freeman out at first base. I’ve seen that a lot. Shifts are working, and once again, batters seem to refuse to aim for the holes.

Week two of the season produced just 7.96 runs per game. That’s the third lowest average since this study began in 2015. There is a lot of volatility to week two, so we’ll see if better weather brings better offense in week three. There was a reason the season used to begin in mid April.

April 7, 2025

Weekly Look at Offense

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Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the offense of the previous season through the same number of full weeks, Monday through Sunday. Through one full week, MLB saw 8.93 runs per game versus 9.01 runs per game in 2024. For 2025, that’s the fourth highest average first week during the study that started in 2015.

Note that home runs rose from 2.04 to 2.25 per game. It’s a total of 30 home runs in the same number of games, so each team on average hit one more home run. Walks are up ever so slightly to 7.02 per game from 6.93 per game. Strikeouts went down from 17.27 per game to 17.09 per game. That means BABIP balls in play fell ever so slightly. BABIP, however, fell five points, from .290 to .285. So other hits, not home runs, fell from 14.13 per game to 13.64 per game, and over all getting on base fell from 24.08 per game to 23.75 per game.

I find the other hits drop disappointing. Two years ago, MLB put rules in place to limit shifts. While that helped at first, teams adjusted and figured out how to place fielders in the most optimal positions within the rules to limit hits on balls in play.

Rules cannot fix this. Shifts work because most batters refuse to adjust their swings to take advantage of the shifts. Fielders give batters free passes, and the batters refuse the gift. I don’t want to minimize the difficulty of hitting a baseball, but the worst MLB hitter is among the best in the world. They should be able to develop a “choke up on the bat and direct the ball swing” that works well enough to discourage shifts.

March 28, 2025

Long Ball Runs

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MLB saw sixteen games played so far this season, and those games produced 43 home runs. Those long balls produced 68 of the 138 RBIs or 49.3%. That is high. The previous three season home runs produced about 42% of RBI. The peak was 47.2% in 2019.

Part of this result comes from facing aces on opening day. Top pitchers tend to make it difficult to maintain an offensive sequence, so sometimes home runs are the only way to score against them. Aces should limit home runs, however, and 43 HR in 16 games does not seem like limiting long balls.

Of course, aces don’t go deep in games anymore. Starting pitchers allowed 22 home runs and a .355 slugging percentage, while relief pitchers allowed 21 home runs and a .435 slugging percentage.

We are in the third year of rules to try to add more action to the game. If opening day is any indication, we may be in for another low hit, high home run season.

March 20, 2025

Fear the Dodgers

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Great offenses can beat you in many ways. In the Tokyo series, the Cubs pitchers did a great job of limiting hits, as the Dodgers collected 14 safeties for a .219 BA. They walked fifteen times, however, for a great .362 OBP. Eight of their fourteen hits went for extra bases, which move runners a long way.

There no doubt will be games this season in which the pitchers stay over the plate. In those situation, we’ll likely see Los Angeles get on base via hits. They get hits when hits are available, take walks when pitchers are careful, and crush the pitches they can crush. They did that in Tokyo without two of their best hitters in the lineup.

They remind me very much of the 1998 Yankees. That was pretty much an offense without weaknesses, and the Dodgers found that formula.

March 12, 2025

Team Offense, Wrap Up

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With the Team Offense series done, what do the results portend for the upcoming season?

Based on the probable lineups, the Dodgers look like a powerhouse once again, 0.3 runs per game ahead of the second place Yankees. The Yankees are near the top as their lineup captures most of the value of their optimum order.

The Cardinals get the nod as the biggest mover in the positive direction. They ranked 22nd in runs per game in 2024, while the LAT puts them 9th this season. The Braves look poised to make a big move as well, from 15th to fourth. Atlanta hitters posted a number of down seasons in 2024, so there is a regression to the mean built into that ranking. In other words, the Marcels do not see the players as in decline, just off a year. The Angels also make a big move, from 28th to 17th. That move will depend on keeping Mike Trout healthy.

On the downside, the Orioles and Brewers take the biggest steps backwards. Baltimore finished 4th in runs per game in 2024, the LAT puts them 14th. There is some upside there if Jackson Holliday starts hitting like a star. The Brewers drop from 6th to 15th. Part of that comes from the limited service time of their starting lineup. Potentially good hitters get moved toward the league averages due to lack of plate appearances.

The Diamondbacks, who led the majors in scoring in 2024, drop to seventh in this analysis. Corbin Carroll could be the key here, with a return to his rookie of the year numbers pulling the Diamondbacks higher.

The Rays, Braves, Yankees, and Giants all captured over 90% of the optimum value of their lineups. At the bottom of that list however, is the New York Mets at 48.8%. The Mets optimum batting order projects to 5.00 runs per game, third in the majors. Their probable lineup projects to 4.78 runs per game, eighth in the majors. That’s a difference of 36 runs over a full season, or nearly four wins. That’s a fairly large negation of the Juan Soto signing.

Soto causes the Mets to down the biggest spread of talent, the difference in runs per game between the best and worst lineups. The Mets stand at 0.43 R/G, with a big gap between them and the Astros at 0.37. When the talent is diverse, the right batting order becomes more important. For the Pirates and Reds with a spread of 0.16, almost any order works just as well. For the Mets, putting unproductive hitters in the wrong slots hurts a lot. If you are going to bat Soto second, put someone with a decent OBP ninth so your star gets more runners to drive in.

We’ll see how this all works out. Injuries, rookie sensations, players finding their strokes in their primes will likely means this ordering looks very different once the season finishes. That’s always the fun part, seeing what worked and what didn’t.

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March 11, 2025

Team Offense, Chicago White Sox

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The 2025 series on team offense concludes with the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox finished list in the Majors in 2024 with 3.13 runs scored per game, 0.6 runs per game lower than their nearest rival.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Will Venable batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 3.92
Probable lineup: 3.84
Worst lineup: 3.62
Regressed lineup: 3.85

How the mighty have fallen! Joey Gallo is slotted to bat eighth for the White Sox. It reminds me of the time I saw Cheap Trick playing a free concert in the parking lot of an amusement park.

Gallo shouldn’t be the eighth hitter, and that doesn’t say much for the rest of the White Sox lineup. Five of the hitters project to OBPs below .300. Mike Tauchman at .341 is the only starter who projects to a good OBP. Luis Robert Jr. at .451 is the only starter who projects to a decent slugging percentage. No one combines both a good OBP and a good SLUG, so it’s no wonder that even their optimum lineup fails to score 4.0 runs a game.

Is there any upside? Miguel Vargas plays 2025 as a 25 year old, just entering his prime. His good minor league numbers have not translated to the major leagues in over 500 PA. Lenyn Sosa is the same age, but without the great minor league hitting.

The White Sox offense should be better than in 2024, just because it’s tough to be that bad two years in a row. Don’t expect anything spectacular, however.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

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March 11, 2025

Team Offense, Tampa Bay Rays

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays finished twenty ninth in the Majors and fourteenth in the American League in 2024 with 3.73 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Kevin Cash batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.42
Probable lineup: 4.41
Worst lineup: 4.16
Regressed lineup: 4.22

The Rays achieved 96% of the optimum lineup, making them by far the team with the closest match to the LAT. Note at at the bottom of the order they Jonny Deluca and Taylor Walls, the two weakest hitters on the team. Walls projects worse than Deluca, and usually the LAT places the weakest hitter eight. There does seem to be a limit to that. When the two weakest hitters are close, the LAT will bat the lower of the two ninth.

Getting this lineup right isn’t all that difficult. Yandy Diaz looks like the obvious leadoff hitter, and the Rays place him in that slot. The two-four hitters project to similar OBPs and slugging percentages, and the LAT flip flop the Lowes between second and fourth. Jonathan Aranda represents the point of departure between the LAT and Rays. The LAT tends to put a weaker hitter third, going against conventional wisdom. Aranda projects to be that hitter, so Junior Caminero would bat behind the cleanup hitter, who would be one of the better hitters in the lineup getting on base.

The Rays impress me once again. They built an offense emphasizing getting on base, and devised a lineup to get the most out of that strength. This lineup likely won’t come near leading the league in runs, but with good pitching and defense, it can win. Well done.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

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March 9, 2025

Team Offense, Los Angeles Angels

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels finished twenty eighth in the Majors and thirteenth in the American League in 2024 with 3.92 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Ron Washington batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.69
Probable lineup: 4.59
Worst lineup: 4.41
Regressed lineup: 4.33

Both FanGraphs and RotoChamp have Mike Trout and Taylor Ward hitting first and third respectively. That seemed odd to me. I found an article from mid February in which Washington indicates Ward batting first and Trout batting third. Looking at box scores from the last few games, Ward hits first when he is in the lineup and Trout hits third, so I swapped those two batters.

The LAT puts Nolan Schanuel leadoff, however. He projects to a .352 OBP and owns a .354 OBP at the MLB level in 738 plate appearances as he goes into his age 23 season. I suspect due to his youth and inexperience, the Angels don’t want to force the lead-off role on him just yet, but I really like the third best batting order of Schanuel, Ward, Luis Rengifo, Trout, and Jorge Soler. That group can generate runs, and if projections hold, the Angels could add half a run per game this season.

A lot does depend on Trout staying healthy. Somehow, the Angels tend to look better on paper in spring than they wind up being at the end of the year.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

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March 9, 2025

Team Offense, Miami Marlins

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Miami Marlins. The Marlins finished twenty seventh in the Majors and last in the National League in 2024 with 3.93 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Clayton McCullough batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.39
Probable lineup: 4.36
Worst lineup: 4.14
Regressed lineup: 4.19

One problem evaluating the Marlins lineup comes from the lack of major league experience in the batting order. So many of the hitters get regressed to the MLB means for OBP and slugging percentage. Jonah Bride offers a good example. With 565, and two poor seasons in 2022 and 2023 Bride projects to a .322 OBP and a .369 slugging percentage. That’s not a number four hitter. Last season for the Marlins, however, Bride posted a .357 OBP and a .461 slugging percentage, which is much more cleanup hitter.

So the reliability of the Marcels for each hitter is a bit low. The overall picture of the Marlins improving their runs is more likely to be correct. Some players will do better than their projections, some worse, and it may all even out.

I’m not sure how much upside exists, however. While these players are inexperienced, they are not young. Almost all are in their primes, which means they spent a few years in the minor leagues. Great players tend to come up young. So this looks like a better offense for the Marlins than in 2024, but this group is not a long-term solution for the team.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

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March 9, 2025

Team Offense, Athletics

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Athletics. The Athletics* finished twenty sixth in the Majors and Twelfth in the American League in 2024 with 3.97 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Mark Kotsay batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.39
Probable lineup: 4.36
Worst lineup: 4.14
Regressed lineup: 4.19

The Athletics represent another team with similar talent throughout the lineup. No one player fits best in any particular lineup slot. Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker, the team’s two best hitters should be near the top. At the other end, Seth Brown and Gio Urshela should be near the bottom. Everyone else can be mixed and matched.

This is a power offense. The team decided to forgo getting on base to knock the ball around the park. This may be why Shea Langeliers bats fourth, when the LAT sees his best slots lower in the order. Langeliers hits for power exclusively. That great for driving in runners from the top of the lineup, but a fourth place hitter should also server as a table setter for the bottom of the order. He needs to come at the end of an offensive sequence, as he is poor at starting one.

This lineup otherwise captures most of the potential of this offense. It looks like a much better season for this group of hitters.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

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*The Athletics could now be the punchline to the team version of the “Land of the Three Named People” bit.

March 9, 2025

Team Offense, Washington Nationals

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Washington Nationals. The Nationals finished twenty fifth in the Majors and fourteenth in the National League in 2024 with 4.07 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Dave Martinez batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.43
Probable lineup: 4.37
Worst lineup: 4.16
Regressed lineup: 4.19

The Nationals nail the bottom of the order. Keibert Ruiz, Paul DeJong, and Jacob Young take up the 7-8-9 slots in most of the best lineups. This is important, as it limits the plate appearances by weaker hitters. Note that when Ruiz bats higher than seventh, that slot is often filled by CJ Abrams, who the Nationals slot into the lead-off role.

Abrams projects to an OBP of .313, which is in line with other projections at FanGraphs. It could be the Nationals look at his OBPs in the minors leagues, .363 at AA, .360 at AA, and believe he can do batter. He is going into his age 24 season, and Musings Marcels gives him a boost for that.

The project should be a good one, however. He accumulated over 1500 PA in the majors. At this point he’s unlikely to be a .360 OBP guy, maybe .330 is his ceiling. Abrams produces OBP primarily through his hits. He does not walk much, and his walk rate in the majors is similar to his walk rate in the minors. His drop in OBP comes from hitting MLB pitching poorly. Maybe he figures it out in 2025. Some of the best lead-off hitters (Rickey Henderson and Wade Boggs come to mind) could use what worked for them to get on base. Some years they walked more, some years they collected more hits, but their OBPs were pretty steady. If Abrams doesn’t hit, he doesn’t do well at getting on base.

It strikes me that some combination of Nathaniel Lowe, James Wood, and Josh Bell at the top of the order works the best. The Nationals should see an offensive improvement this season, but the current top of the order limits the upside.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

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March 8, 2025

Team Offense, Pittsburgh Pirates

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates finished twenty fourth in the Majors and thirteenth in the National League in 2024 with 4.10 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Derek Shelton batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.28
Probable lineup: 4.22
Worst lineup: 4.12
Regressed lineup: 4.10

The Pirates and the LAT agree on four slots in the batting order; Bryan Reynolds batting second, Joey Bart batting fifth, Ke’Bryan Hayes eighth, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa ninth. That’s well done.

The main change the team might make would be moving Andrew McCutchen to the lead-off slot. The Pirates default lineup bats Tommy Pham first, but at seasonal age 37, his best OBP days seem to be behind him. McCutchen is a year older, but his OBP has been consistently better over the last few seasons.

On the other hand, the Pirates are tied with the Reds for lowest spread between the best and worst lineups at 0.16 runs per game, but the Reds talent level is a bit higher. It’s disappointing that with Paul Skenes on the mound, Pittsburgh did little to try to increase run support for him. I don’t seem much improvement on offense for this team.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

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March 8, 2025

Team Offense, Toronto Blue Jays

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays finished twenty third in the Majors and eleventh in the American League in 2024 with 4.14 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That John Schneider batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.53
Probable lineup: 4.40
Worst lineup: 4.22
Regressed lineup: 4.21

A few years ago the Blue Jays offense seemed poised for greatness. They brought along five young players with great baseball pedigrees who seemed on their way to maturing into a great hitting unit. Going into 2025, however, only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. projects to his potential. Caven Biggio and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are gone. Dalton Varsho projects to hit poorly. Bo Bichette sits well short of star, although over all he is still a good player.

Guerrero is the only one of the batters who both gets on base well and hits for power. catcher Alejandro Kirk does a good job of getting on base, and the LAT often places him in the lead-off role in some of the best lineups. Anthony Santander hits for power and the LAT is sure his role should be cleanup. For the rest of the lineup, no one should really strike fear into the heart of the opposition.

With Guerrero likely a free agent at the end of the year, the Blue Jays could have tried to put better talent around him for a push for a championship. There’s not a lot of upside in this lineup.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

March 8, 2025

Team Offense, St. Louis Cardinals

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals finished twenty second in the Majors and twelfth in the National League in 2024 with 4.15 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Carlos Marmol batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.83
Probable lineup: 4.77
Worst lineup: 4.62
Regressed lineup: 4.45

The good news is that for standing pat, the Cardinals offense projects to be much better than the 2024 model. Part of that comes from this being a younger team with the removal of Paul Goldschmidt. Much of the starting lineup sits in their pre to early prime years, so Musings Marcels gives those batters a bump up for still being in the improvement phase of their careers. The Cardinals also feature a lineup up with good to very good OBPs. In general, the more batters reach base, the more runs a team scores. The power projection for the team is low, so it will be tougher to bring the runners around.

The bad news comes from a disconnect between the projections and the lineup construction. The specific players in mind here are Masyn Winn batting first and Brendan Donovan batting fifth. Musings Marcels put the OBP/Slug for the players as .313/.404 for Winn, .354/.412 for Donovan. In looking at the other projections at fan graphs, these are in line, and Winn’s is one of the more generous ones.

The LAT sees Winn batting eighth, usually reserved for the least productive hitter in the lineup. Donovan or Ivan Herrera gets the leadoff slot. Since Herrera catches, it’s not a great idea to bat him first, but the Cardinals did make the brilliant move of batting him ninth, where the LAT also likes him.

Why make such an obvious mistake? It may be strategic, a throwback to Gene Mauch. Mauch liked one-run strategies. He liked his second hitter to be a good bunter, so he could sacrifice the lead-off hitter into scoring position. If you think about subsequent times through the order, the offensive sequence starts with Herrera. Winn bunts well, so he should be good at putting Herrera into scoring position. I don’t particularly like the strategy, but with little power on the team, it does make some sense.

Note, too, that there is very little difference between the best and worst lineups, as the talent of the hitters fits in a very narrow band. I’ll be curious to see how often Winn is called on to sacrifice.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

March 7, 2025

Team Offense, Seattle Mariners

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners finished twenty first in the Majors and tenth in the American League in 2024 with 4.17 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Dan Wilson batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.53
Probable lineup: 4.43
Worst lineup: 4.25
Regressed lineup: 4.23

Wilson gets the top of the lineup right in his first season as Mariners manager. The LAT agrees with Victor Robles leading off and Julio Rodriguez batting second. Both bat Luke Raley and Randy Arozarena fourth and fifth, although the LAT prefers Raley ahead of Arozarena.

The big disconnect comes at the bottom of the order, where the Mariners appear to intend to bat JP Crawford seventh, when his higher OBP (projected at .338) would do better ninth as a secondary lead-off hitter. The LAT sees Mitch Haniger as the worst offensive player in the starting lineup, and puts him eighth instead of sixth.

Crawford used to bat at the top of the order, so going down to seventh might seem to him like a big demotion. Going all the way down to ninth might have bothered him even more. There’s no excuse to bat Haniger higher than eighth, and so far in spring training he gave the Mariners no reason to think he’ll be better than his projections.

We’ll see if one the regular season begins if Seattle continues to leave runs on table.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

March 6, 2025

Team Offense, Detroit Tigers

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers finished nineteenth in the Majors and ninth in the American League in 2024 with 4.21 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That A.J. Hinch batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.44
Probable lineup: 4.40
Worst lineup: 4.17
Regressed lineup: 4.21

The Tigers did a nice job with this lineup. The LAT agrees with Gleyber Torres and Riley Greene, putting Greene in the top slot a little more often. There is 100% agreement on the heart of the order with Wenceel Perez, Kerry Carpenter, and Colt Keith. Worst hitter in the lineup, Zach McKinstry, is eighth for the LAT and for the Tigers. The LAT would but Jace Jung ninth, and not batting him there might be the one flaw in the batting order.

Jung does a good job getting on base. Batting him sixth means there is little power behind him. Batting him ninth gives Torres and Greene someone to bring around to home.

The Tigers tied with the Rockies in scoring last season. The indications here are the Tigers will finish well ahead of Colorado this season. They seem to be poised to get the most of their batting order.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

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March 6, 2025

Team Offense, Colorado Rockies

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies finished nineteenth in the Majors and eleventh in the National League in 2024 with 4.21 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Bud Black batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.25
Probable lineup: 4.13
Worst lineup: 3.99
Regressed lineup: 4.04

I’m a bit shocked by the placement of Brenton Doyle in the leadoff slot and Nolan Jones seventh. Jones projects to a .348 OBP, Doyle .301. Looking at other projections at FanGraphs for these players, the Musings Marcels are right in line with the others. Why then the disconnect between the projections and the lineup slots?

A guess is recency bias. Doyle posted a stronger 2024, .317/.446, while Jones dropped to .321/.320. Overall history is on Jones’ side as his minor league OBPs were excellent. He did suffer from back problems last year, so while the projections are good, he will need to be healthy to realize them.

It may not make that much difference. Even with Jones healthy, the Rockies offense looks just as lackluster as in 2024. They will need a number of career years to score enough to win at Coors against a fairly strong NL West.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

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March 6, 2025

Team Offense, Texas Rangers

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Texas Rangers. The Rangers finished eighteenth in the Majors and eighth in the American League in 2024 with 4.22 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Bruce Bochy batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.82
Probable lineup: 4.73
Worst lineup: 4.56
Regressed lineup: 4.43

The Rangers offense appears to be poised for a bounce back in 2025. Some of that needs to come from health. Corey Seager missed a quarter of the season for the second year in a row, while 2023 rookie sensation Evan Carter lost most of his season to a back injury. Carter’s project may be a very low floor for him.

The addition of Joc Pederson gives the Rangers a second player with a high OBP. The Rangers lineup is heavy on power, but Texas needs men on base to make that power effective. The LAT puts Pederson in the leadoff slot with Seager second and Jake Burger and his high slugging percentage in the cleanup slot.

The Rangers slot Marcus Semien into the lead-off slot right now. Since 2019, Semien alternated good and bad OBP seasons, which would make him due for a good year in 2025. I don’t really buy into that, but I could understand the Rangers liking him at the top of the order and believing (for possible other reasons) that his OBP will bounce back in 2025.

So the lineup order is okay. If Carter hits, Seager stays healthy, and Semien gets on base, this could be one of the best offenses in the AL.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

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March 5, 2025

Team Offense, San Francisco Giants

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the San Francisco Giants. The Giants finished seventeenth in the Majors and tenth in the National League in 2024 with 4.28 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Bob Melvin batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.50
Probable lineup: 4.48
Worst lineup: 4.27
Regressed lineup: 4.26

The default Giants lineup captures 91% of the optimum lineup, and yet the default lineup looks very different that that top scoring order. Those two only agree at the top, with LaMonte Wade Jr. leading off.

A lot of the hitters are interchangeable, however. There are high scoring lineups Willy Adames second, Heliot Ramos fifth, Jerer Encarnacion and Patrick Bailey eighth and ninth. That’s why a lineup that is somewhat different is in the ballpark.

Part of the difference comes from the way Musings Marcels sees Tyler Fitzgerald versus other prediction systems. The consensus of the projections at FanGraphs seems to be around a .290 OBP and a .405 OBP. That very different than the Marcels .324/.463. With the lower projections, the default lineup makes a lot more sense.

We will see. The Marcels makes no corrections for ball parks or minor league performance, but the simple regression tends to do well. Giants hope the get the Marcels Fitzgerald.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

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March 4, 2025

Team Offense, Cincinnati Reds

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds finished sixteenth in the Majors and ninth in the National League in 2024 with 4.31 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Terry Francona batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.67
Probable lineup: 4.62
Worst lineup: 4.51
Regressed lineup: 4.35

The LAT tends to put the worst hitter in the lineup into the eighth slot. Often it’s an obvious choice. In the case of the Reds three players via for that slot, Austin Hays, Will Benson, and Jeimer Candelario. Note that in pretty much every lineup, they bat sixth, seventh and eighth.

This could be a negative or a positive. The could be competing for the eighth slot because there are three poor hitters on the team. In the case of the Reds, however, their three worst hitters aren’t that bad. Both Hays and Benson project to get on at a reasonable .314 clip. Candelario offers a bit power. None of them are terrible.

The lineup overall seems pretty interchangeable. The spread between the best worst lineups is just 0.16 runs, by far the lowest in the study so far. The LAT is unanimous in putting Elly De La Cruz fourth and Gavin Lux ninth, but otherwise, mix and match at the top, and mix and match at the bottom.

The best news is that this lineup has the potential to be more effective than the 2024 squad.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

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March 4, 2025

Team Offense, Atlanta Braves

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Atlanta Braves. The Braves finished fifteenth in the Majors and eighth in the National League in 2024 with 4.35 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Brian Snitker batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.93
Probable lineup: 4.91
Worst lineup: 4.68
Regressed lineup: 4.54

As I typed in the Braves lineup, I had the feeling they nailed it. They wound up reaching 92% of the optimum order, the best in the 2025 study so far. The two lineups agree on Austin Riley second, Marcell Ozuna fourth, Michael Harris II fifth, Ozzie Albies sixth, and Orlando Arcia eighth. Well done.

The big difference comes from batting Matt Olson first and Jurickson Profar ninth. I can go either way on this. Profar is the more traditional, high OBP, low power lead-off hitter. Olson and Riley, however, are much better hitters than Profar, so getting them extra PA during the season is a good thing, and Profar sets them up in subsequent trips through the order. There are a few top lineups that put Profar in the leadoff role.

Note that the injured Ronald Acuna Jr projects to a .372/.481 line. When he returns, he would slide into Profar’s lead-off role, and Profar could then bat ninth. The LAT has a high opinion of that combination.

Note that rookie catcher Drake Baldwin put up some very nice OBPs in his minor league career. There’s lots of upside in his slot.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

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March 3, 2025

Team Offense, Cleveland Guardians

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians finished fourteenth in the Majors and seventh in the American League in 2024 with 4.40 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Stephen Vogt batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.46
Probable lineup: 4.41
Worst lineup: 4.23
Regressed lineup: 4.22

The Guardians look very much like the Royals, with a couple of excellent hitters and not much else. Steven Kwan gets on base well from the lead-off slot, and Jose Ramirez provides power behind him. The LAT bats him second in the best lineup, while the Guardians look to bat him third. The projects for the rest of the lineup show poor OBPs and a lack of power.

Take that with a grain of salt, however. The Guardians start two young players, Kyle Manzardo and Brayan Rocchio, all who did very well getting on base in the minors. Manzardo showed power as well. If they both pushed OBPs in the .340s, this would look like a much stronger lineup.

It would also justify their slots, Manzardo batting second and Rocchio ninth. Manzardo could drive in Kwan and set up Ramirez, while Rocchio batting ninth gives the team four good OBPs in a row as the lineup turns over.

Based on the projections, the Guardians appear to be standing still offensively. If the youngster progress, however, Cleveland could get a nice improvement at a low cost.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

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March 3, 2025

Team Offense, Kansas City Royals

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Kansas City Royals. The Royals finished thirteenth in the Majors and sixth in the American League in 2024 with 4.537 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Matt Quatraro batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.48
Probable lineup: 4.43
Worst lineup: 4.18
Regressed lineup: 4.23

The Royals pretty much nailed the lineup. The 23rd best order matches the top four of Jonathan India, Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez exactly. There are probably better ways to arrange the bottom, but there isn’t a lot of talent at the bottom of the order.

That, more that lineup strategy, holds back the Royals offense in 2024. After Pasquantino, the batters project to be out machines. India did give them more OBP at the top of the order, but it’s really not enough. Perez is coming off a good year for him OBP wise, but his career says those seasons are outliers and his power is falling as he ages.

There are a number of hitters in their early primes in the lineup, so maybe they will realize their upside. I suspect more offense will need to come from better prospects in the minors.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

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March 2, 2025

Team Offense, Chicago Cubs

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs finished twelfth in the Majors and seventh in the National League in 2024 with 4.543 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Craig Counsell batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.78
Probable lineup: 4.72
Worst lineup: 4.54
Regressed lineup: 4.42

The Cubs decided to group their three best hitters at the top of the order, with Kyle Tucker batting between Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki. The LAT prefers splitting up Tucker and Suzuki second and fourth, with a slight preference for Suzuki batting second. Note that one of the top 30 orders, there is a Happ, Tucker, Michael Busch, Suzuki top four, very close to the Cubs default.

Note that with some slugger batting second, the LAT wants Nico Horner in the ninth slot. Hoerner projects to a .335 OBP with little power, so he would do a great job setting up the top of the order batting ninth. Given that he a veteran, and a pretty good hitter, I don’t think it is going to happen. I suspect most batters see batting ninth as a slap in the face.

Luckily, the Cubs have a rookie in Matt Shaw who did a good job getting on base in the minors. Ninth would be perfect for him, and if he excelled, he could always move up in the order.

This should be a better Cubs offense than in 2024, and it looks to be on par, if not a bit better, than the Brewers.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

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March 2, 2025

Team Offense, Minnesota Twins

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Minnesota Twins. The Twins finished eleventh in the Majors and fifth in the American League in 2024 with 4.58 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Rocco Baldelli batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.78
Probable lineup: 4.70
Worst lineup: 4.52
Regressed lineup: 4.41

The Twins get a lot of groups right in the default lineup, although not always in the same order as the LAT. Both agree with Matt Wallner and Carlos Correa at the top, with the LAT non-committal on which goes where. Both agree on a bottom third of the order of Ryan Jeffers, Ty France, and Brooks Lee, but the LAT puts Lee eighth and France ninth.

Trevor Larnach in the cleanup slot is the one that hit me as odd. The LAT often puts Royce Lewis fourth and Larnach fifth in the best lineups, which makes more sense to me. Larnach projects to a .426 slugging percentage, which would be low for a traditional cleanup hitter. It may be that the Twins see that number as an underestimation:

“He’s going to be in there likely hitting somewhere towards the top of the lineup,” Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said. “He was someone that would put the ball in play when we needed him to. He does a little bit of everything. He hits the ball hard. He can put some balls in the seats, which is still something that you’re looking for from your team.”
MSN.com

So it’s possible he does not bat fourth, depending on how his spring works out.

Overall, the Twins only have one poor OBP in the group, and he is slotted near the bottom of the order. They have some power, but they no longer seem to be the “Everybody hit home runs” team of Baldelli’s early tenure. They are unlikely to show either a big improvement or a big dip from 2024.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

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March 1, 2025

Team Offense, Houston Astros

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Houston Astros. The Astros finished tenth in the Majors and fourth in the American League in 2024 with 4.60 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Jose Espada batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 5.02
Probable lineup: 4.92
Worst lineup: 4.65
Regressed lineup: 4.55

The common wisdom for most of the history of baseball indicated a team should bat two table setters at the top of the order followed by the team’s best hitter third, someone who did both a great job getting on base and hitting for power. So if your table setters get on base at a .340 clip, the third hitter will come up with at least one of them on base about 55% of the time.

The regression model indicates that teams gain a benefit for batting that great hitter second, but that benefit comes from putting a player with a decent OBP ninth. A team still wants batters getting on base in front of the great hitter, but moving him up a slot gives him more opportunities in a game and in a season to produce.

The Astros opted for the traditional role, with two players, Jose Altuve and Issac Paredes batting one and two, with Yordan Alvarez behind them. This does allow them to push a poor hitter, Jake Meyers, to the bottom of the order. I don’t think it would hurt to swap Meyers and Ben Gamel, as Altuve and Paredes own some power that could be useful with Gamel on base more.

You’ll also notice that the LAT tends to put a poorer hitter in the third slot so a better batter can serve as a middle of the order lead-off man. In that respect, the Astros do get that part of the order correct with Christian Walker batting clean-up.

So the Astros put a very good lineup on the field despite losing Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. I don’t see a demise of this offense.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

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March 1, 2025

Team Offense, Boston Red Sox

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The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox finished ninth in the Majors and Third in the American League in 2024 with 4.64 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Alex Cora batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.90
Probable lineup: 4.83
Worst lineup: 4.66
Regressed lineup: 4.49

The LAT agrees with the Red Sox batting Rafael Devers second and Alex Bregman third, but flips Jarren Duran and Triston Casas, leading off with Casas and batting Duran fourth. This is a case where OBP and SLUG don’t tell the whole story. Duran is fast and is a great base stealer. Casas owns a higher isolated power and doesn’t attempt to steal much. Looking at them in isolation, we put Duran in the table setter bucket and Casas in the lumbering slugger bucket.

On top of that, Duran is at his peak, and improved his OBP the last two seasons versus his first two seasons. So his .333 OBP projection may be an underestimate. I understand the Red Sox choice.

My contrarian argument would be that a high OBP at the top of the order is a very efficient way to expand the rest of the offense. Casas saves out that everyone else gets to use. In addition, when there is power behind Duran, his steals become less valuable. He can easily score from first on an extra base hit. The bottom of the Red Sox order is somewhat less powerful than the top, so Duran batting fourth and stealing bases would give the singles hitters behind him more opportunities to drive in runs.

Trevor Story batting sixth with his poor projection tells me that the Red Sox believe a healthy Story will easily beat those projections.

The Red Sox look poised to improve their offense in 2025, and have prospects waiting in the wings if there are failures at the MLB level. This team should be among the high scorers in the AL once again, and may very well move up in the majors as well.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

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