Team Offense, Wrap Up

With the Team Offense series done, what do the results portend for the upcoming season?

Based on the probable lineups, the Dodgers look like a powerhouse once again, 0.3 runs per game ahead of the second place Yankees. The Yankees are near the top as their lineup captures most of the value of their optimum order.

The Cardinals get the nod as the biggest mover in the positive direction. They ranked 22nd in runs per game in 2024, while the LAT puts them 9th this season. The Braves look poised to make a big move as well, from 15th to fourth. Atlanta hitters posted a number of down seasons in 2024, so there is a regression to the mean built into that ranking. In other words, the Marcels do not see the players as in decline, just off a year. The Angels also make a big move, from 28th to 17th. That move will depend on keeping Mike Trout healthy.

On the downside, the Orioles and Brewers take the biggest steps backwards. Baltimore finished 4th in runs per game in 2024, the LAT puts them 14th. There is some upside there if Jackson Holliday starts hitting like a star. The Brewers drop from 6th to 15th. Part of that comes from the limited service time of their starting lineup. Potentially good hitters get moved toward the league averages due to lack of plate appearances.

The Diamondbacks, who led the majors in scoring in 2024, drop to seventh in this analysis. Corbin Carroll could be the key here, with a return to his rookie of the year numbers pulling the Diamondbacks higher.

The Rays, Braves, Yankees, and Giants all captured over 90% of the optimum value of their lineups. At the bottom of that list however, is the New York Mets at 48.8%. The Mets optimum batting order projects to 5.00 runs per game, third in the majors. Their probable lineup projects to 4.78 runs per game, eighth in the majors. That’s a difference of 36 runs over a full season, or nearly four wins. That’s a fairly large negation of the Juan Soto signing.

Soto causes the Mets to down the biggest spread of talent, the difference in runs per game between the best and worst lineups. The Mets stand at 0.43 R/G, with a big gap between them and the Astros at 0.37. When the talent is diverse, the right batting order becomes more important. For the Pirates and Reds with a spread of 0.16, almost any order works just as well. For the Mets, putting unproductive hitters in the wrong slots hurts a lot. If you are going to bat Soto second, put someone with a decent OBP ninth so your star gets more runners to drive in.

We’ll see how this all works out. Injuries, rookie sensations, players finding their strokes in their primes will likely means this ordering looks very different once the season finishes. That’s always the fun part, seeing what worked and what didn’t.

Previous posts in this series:

March 12, 2025

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