The deal in the works between the Cardinals and the Rockies in which St. Louis acquires Nolan Arenado seems to be tilted very much in favor of the Cardinals. Part of the deal moves $50 million to St. Louis. Since Arenado can opt out after one season, who gets to keep the excess salary if he Arenado exercises that option? In addition:
That’s the other great part of the trade, as if there needed to be another great part. It did not seem to do much to dent the Cardinals now, or in the future, at least as best as we can tell today. The Rockies’ priority to dump cash seems to have freed the Cardinals from including any of their most prized prospects in the deal. Another way to look at it? The trade is being skewered in Colorado, because the Rockies paid, potentially up to $50 million, to send a star player away in a deal that did not net any of the Cardinals’ top prospects.
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I believe this brings up the potential downside of the deal for the Cardinals. Maybe the Rockies don’t believe Arenado will bounce back from his 2020 season. If they keep him and his bat doesn’t bounce back, then Arenado doesn’t exercise his opt-out and the Rockies are on the hook for $180 million.
Trades tend not to occur if teams believe they are not getting equal value. According to Statcast, in 2020, Arendo did not hit the ball as hard or barrel the ball up as often as in the past. So his poor batting line wasn’t just hitting line drives at an infielder. The Rockies see a real risk here that would cost them a lot of money and make more difficult to build a team over the next half decade.
I’m reminded of Eric Chavez. Chavez played for the Oakland Athletics at the turn of the century, came up young, and was an outstanding offensive and defensive third baseman. In a five-year span from 2000 to 2004, he posted 23.5 rWAR. Going into his age 27 season, the Athletics signed him to a six-year deal. His WAR and playing time declined until the last two season he posted negative WARs. The small market A’s were stuck with a big contract (for them).
No one thought the Chavez contract was a poor deal. He was at the top of his prime, one of the top players in the game, and a fan favorite. The contract just didn’t work out. The Rockies have a player who is already past his prime, and shows signs of slowing down. The actual details, and Arenado’s play over the next couple of seasons will tell us if the Rockies were correct or not.