The division previews continue with the AL East. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2014, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2014. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Baltimore Orioles

• Position Player WAR: 20.5
• Pitcher Total: 9.7
• Core Total: 30.2

The Orioles remain a solid team, but question marks swirl as they head into opening day. Matt Wieters suffered an elbow set-back in spring training, and there is no projected date for his return. The same goes for J.J. Hardy. A healthy Wieters would have boosted Baltimore’s offense, making up some of the pop lost with the departure of Nelson Cruz. Hardy is a strong shortstop, and he will be difficult to replace for a long stretch. There should be upside to Chris Davis and Manny Machado, but Wieters gave them some insurance against one of them failing. Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter are good at dealing with these situations, so I’m interested to see what they do.

The Orioles don’t have an outstanding starter, but they don’t have a poor one either. The offense will need to be above average for the team to win, however.

New York Yankees

• Position Player WAR: 13.2
• Pitcher Total: 12.8
• Core Total: 26

The Yankees have plenty of upside potential, but it’s not reliable upside potential. If a team starts a rookie who tore up the minors, they will have a low WAR coming into the season, but there’s a good chance they’ll post a two or three for the year. The Yankees have upside potential that depends on old, injured, and suspended veterans returning to some of their old form. Based on 2014 WAR, the Yankees line owns the lowest combined WAR in the division. Part of that comes from Carlos Beltran, Alex Rodriguez, and Mark Teixeira combing for a +0.2 WAR. All of them are capable of seasons of two three WAR. If each of them were to deliver a two, the Yankees are suddenly ahead of the Orioles.

The same exists on the pitching side. Due to their significant injuries in 2014, CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, and Masahiro Tanaka all have significant upside. That’s six players who are capable of big seasons, bigger than 2014. My guess is the Yankees need four of them to come through, and they’ll be in contention for the AL East title.

I’m also curious to see how the pitchers react to Didi Gregorius improving the defense at short. Maybe it will relieve of having to try to strike out every batter, which might help not only their ERAs, but their arms as well.

Toronto Blue Jays

• Position Player WAR: 24.9
• Pitcher Total: 8.6
• Core Total: 33.5

The Blue Jays position player WAR and their core total are the highest in the division. They’ve improved the team at catcher and third base, and have some players who offer good upside. Devon Travis, Kevin Pillar, and Dalton Pompey all played well in the minors have just a smattering of major league experience, or in the case of Travis, none at all. If they combine for four WAR, Toronto should win the division. On the pitching side, the same can be said of Daniel Norris and Aaron Sanchez, although I like the hitters better than the pitchers. Unlike the Yankees, however, I suspect the upside here is much more reliable.

It’s been 20 seasons since the Blue Jays won the World Series, or even made the post-season. Nice to see them going all out for another championship this year. If they can keep Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion healthy, they may pull off the win.

Tampa Bay Rays

• Position Player WAR: 17.7
• Pitcher Total: 11.4
• Core Total: 29.1

I don’t quite understand pundits who don’t like the Rays to play well in 2015. They employ four position players who posted WARs of three or better in 2014, and Longoria is capable of more. Steven Souza has plenty of upside. It’s a perfectly good group of position players.

The rotation is rock solid, and even Nate Karns should be a more than capable fifth stater. I think this group has the rotation that the Red Sox want, five solid number two and number three starters.

The trick for the Rays will be staying healthy. They do a good job putting together a competitive team with no money, but if the injury bug hits, they don’t have the resources to recover. Chris Archer and Drew Smyly already suffered injuries, but at the moment it looks like they won’t miss much time.

Boston Red Sox

• Position Player WAR: 18.7
• Pitcher Total: 6.8
• Core Total: 25.5

The Red Sox seem a bit over-hyped to me. Yes, there is upside in Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. Maybe they produce four more WAR than the combination produced in 2014. A healthy Shane Victorino should be good for more than 0.1 WAR. There are a number of older players on the offense, however, that should be expected to decline given their age. Maybe we’re looking at +5 for the offense. That wold be very good relative to the division.

I don’t see where the pitching is going to break out, however. Which one of those pitchers is going to turn into a three or four WAR starter? I don’t believe in Clay Buchholz at this point. I would say all five starters have to exceed expectations for the team to win.

Boston did a nice job of improving, and they’ll be competitive, but they are not head and shoulders above any team in this division.

Probability of winning the division

Once again, this is a very tough division to call. Any of the teams could finish first or last, but I see the Blue Jays with the most upside potential:

• Toronto Blue Jays 30%
• Baltimore Orioles 21%
• New York Yankees 20%
• Tampa Bay Rays 20%
• Boston Red Sox 9%

It’s a tough call between the Orioles, the Yankees, and the Rays. If the Yankees stay healthy I think they come in at least second. If the Yankees age leads to more injuries, the Rays and Orioles should battle the Blue Jays.