Warning: My source for probables has Zach Eflin pitching for the Phillies today. He was sent down May 29th. I will update if I can resolve the issue.

Update: Re-ran with Nick Pivetta instead of Zach Eflin.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.337 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Bartolo Colon
0.326 — Daniel Murphy batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu
0.325 — Howie Kendrick batting against Bartolo Colon
0.314 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu
0.308 — Matt Kemp batting against Nick Pivetta
0.306 — Odubel Herrera batting against Bartolo Colon
0.301 — Aaron Altherr batting against Bartolo Colon
0.300 — Ben Lively batting against Bartolo Colon
0.298 — The rest of the Phillies against Bartolo Colon

If you want a hit, pretty much pick anyone from the Phillies. There is a very limited schedule this Monday, which is why you see an unusual list of players.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.326, 0.763 — Daniel Murphy batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.337, 0.733 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.308, 0.729 — Matt Kemp batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.314, 0.723 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.292, 0.723 — Dee Gordon batting against Eddie Butler.
0.325, 0.719 — Howie Kendrick batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.289, 0.718 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Eddie Butler.
0.296, 0.718 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Eddie Butler.
0.291, 0.717 — Ender Inciarte batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.250, 0.716 — Jose Altuve batting against Ian Kennedy.

Daniel Murphy rising to the top of the pack on a day with a limited schedule is no surprise. Hernandez and Murphy are tied for the consensus pick.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Good luck!