Willy Adames of the Brewers homered in his fifth straight game Monday afternoon, helping the Brewers to a 9-3 win over the Cardinals. His barrage goes back further than that, however, as he he homered in consecutive games on August 25th and 27th. That makes him 12 for 38 in his last nine games, a .316 BA, with seven of those twelve hits home runs. That’s good for an .868 slugging percentage.
The Diamondbacks attempt to salvage the four game series hosting the Dodgers with a split as Arizona trails Los Angeles by five games. Jack Flaherty takes on Eduardo Rodriguez. Flaherty stands 3-1 for the Dodgers in five starts. He does not go deep into games, however, and he does have a weakness for giving up the longball, with six homers allowed in 28 1/3 innings. Rodriguez makes his fifth start for the Diamondbacks. Both his K and BB rate are low, so a good contact team like the Dodgers should be able to put the ball in play against him.
Logan Gilbert and Osvaldo Bido take the mound as the Mariners visit the Athletics. Gilbert’s 3.09 ERA is lower than each of his previous two season in which he won 13 games. He’s 7-10 this season. Seattle is a fairly low scoring team at 3.97 runs per game, but that drops to 3.56 runs per game in Gilbert’s starts. The A’s are going out on a strong note, 22-17 since the All-Star Break. Bido stands 4-2 with a 3.03 ERA in that stretch. He allowed just two home runs in 38 2/3 innings.
Enjoy!
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 22 weeks, the 2024 season produced 8.86 runs per game compared to 9.22 runs per game in 2023.
I find this result disappointing. MLB worked to reduce the number of three-true outcomes in the game to increase action. They and I held the belief that more balls in play would lead to more base runners, more action on defense, etc. With all of the three true outcomes down, offense went down, however, as the balls in play generated more outs, not more hits. BABIP is down to .290 this season down from .297 in 2023. It was .290 in 2022, the last season of unlimited shifts. One season of analysis, and teams are once again position defenses to eliminate hits.
It unfortunately remains true that the power game, high Ks, high walks, high home runs is the best way to generate runs. Until batters start hitting to counter the shift, we are not going to see the action we want. My guess is that next season we will see a return to higher three-true outcomes.
Week 22 produced a decent amount of offense 9.40 runs per game. Balls did find their way through defenses last week, as games generated 14.6 non-home run hits, versus 14.2 for the whole season. HR were high as well. Week 22 over time turns out to be one of the most consistent weeks for scoring. The high was 10.04 runs per game in 2019, the low 9.03 runs per game in 2018.
Brent Rooker of the Athletics joins the top five in the five slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after a four for five in a 6-4 (which averages to five), two time five inning Rangers win. Rooker hovered on the edge of the top five for a while, hitting very well over his last 18 games. A slump by Juan Soto game him the in.
Aaron Judge of the Yankees remains in the top slot after drawing a walk in five trips to the plate in a 14-7 Cardinals victory, St. Louis one of three teams to score exactly 14 runs on the day. Jordan Walker led the way for the Cardinals with a five for five game, including a home run, for a game score of 85, the best on the day. That was the highlight of his 27 game season as that performance raised his averages to .195/.261/.305.
For a while, Judge and Soto carried the Yankees offense. Lately it seems that the rest of the team is hitting well, while Judge and Soto have gone a bit silent.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays stays in second place as the Blue Jays gave him a day off.
Yordan Alvarez of the Astros and Bobby Witt Jr.squared off in Houston, and kept their respective third and fourth slot standings. Alvarez went two for four, both hits home runs. It’s his third multi-home run game in the last 18. Witt went one for four with a walk and a home run as Houston took the game 7-2.
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
I’m a bit blown away that both Judge and Alvarez make the list, even on a day with limited games. Sluggers who walk a lot tend not to be great at extending hit streaks. Alvarez at least owns a low K rate, while Judge’s BABIP is in the .370s.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
Alvarez stays on this list, while Judge drops off. Iglesias and Arraez tie for the consensus top pick, making them the double down choice. Arraez tends to be platooned. Ty Madden is right handed, but the Tigers have not named an official starter yet.
Get your picks in early, as there are a number of early starts on this holiday.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
I hope you have a fun day with friends and family as summer comes to a close. Happy Labor Day!
The Mets beat the White Sox 2-0 on Sunday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .225. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.
They need to go no better than 9-15 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 30 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 137 games is .296. The probability of no more than 9 wins at that level is 0.86. The White Sox are now at to the replacement winning percentage of .296! A generous view of their winning percentage puts them at replacement level.
If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -7 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .351, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.68, or two in three. All indicators now point the the White Sox finishing with no more than 40 wins! I’m sticking to my best guess of a 39-123 finish.
Zach Eflin pitched five perfect innings so far for the Orioles against the Rockies, the Orioles leading 5-0 in Colorado. Eflin struck out six batters on 49 pitches, so he’s working very efficiently. It’s tough to pitch a no-hitter in the big park, but we’ll see.
Update: Jake Cave breaks up the no-hitter with an infield single leading off the bottom of the seventh inning.
The Nationals called up Darren Baker, the son of Dusty Baker, best know for nearly getting run over by Giants players in the 2002 World Series as he served as the bat boy at three years of age:
In Game 5 of the series, San Francisco outfielder Kenny Lofton ripped a triple in the bottom of the seventh inning. But that wasn’t the highlight of the play.
Instead, it was 3-year-old Darren, who left the dugout while the play was still developing to retrieve the bat. Giants first baseman J.T. Snow scooped up the youngster near home plate and carrying him out harm’s way as another runner raced into home behind him.
SportingNews.com
Video at the link.
Baker does a good job of getting on base, but with little power. He did not hit a home run in 483 plate appearances in AAA this season. At age 25, he is no longer a prospect. It’s a nice move by the Nationals so Baker and Baker each get their names at the major league level.
Once again, Aaron Judge blows away the field in August. He posted a .389/.530/.856 slash line in 117 plate appearances. He led in OBP by 49 points. He led in slugging percentage by 156 points. Oneil Cruz tied him in batting average, but was not close in the other categories.
If Judge didn’t exist, it would be a very tough choice as a number of players posted great months. No one came close to Judge, who is the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for August 2024. Judge was also player of the month in June and May.
Eleven pitchers posted sub 2.00 ERAs in August at the 26 innings level, led by Bowden Francis of the Blue Jays. In five starts and one relief appearance he allowed 10 hits, four walks, and one hit batter in 34 1/3 innings. In three of the five starts he pitched at least seven innings with one hit allowed. All that was good for a 4-1 record and an ERA of 1.05. He ranked fourth in walks per 9 IP. It’s tough to find someone who clearly beat those numbers. Bryan Woo pitched 40 1/3 innings, the most in the month, but with a 2.23 ERA and a low K rate. Spencer Arrighetti struck out 13.08 batters per 9IP, with a 1.95 ERA, but in fewer innings than Francis. Chris Sale and Osvaldo Bido did not allow a home run.
Sale’s three true outcomes are all very good. He posted a 2.05 ERA, a run higher than Francis, and in fewer innings. My feeling is that Sale places in this race. There is a very good case for Framber Valdez as well, but just not quite at the top level
Bowden Francis wins the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for August 2024.
The White Sox try to start September with a win as the Mets send Sean Manaea against Garrett Crochet. Manaea turned out to be an important pickup for the Mets as he posted a 10-5 record with a good 3.51 ERA. He is two wins away from matching his single season high. The White Sox appear to have put Crochet under an inning limit since the start of July. They even gave him full rest after just a few pitches in a suspended game. Maybe they will let him go deeper today if the team has a chance at a win. A loss today would give the White Sox their third losing streak of at least ten games this season.
The Mariners send Bryce Miller against the Angles with Caden Dana making his MLB debut. Miller dropped his ERA over a run compared to his rookie season of 2023. He improved his strikeout rate, which helped him lower his hits per 9 IP. Dana posted an excellent year at AA with a 2.52 ERA in 135 2/3 innings. All his three true outcomes were good to excellent.
Sunday night features the Braves at the Phillies with Spencer Schwellenbach taking on Aaron Nola. Schwellenbach put together a nice rookie season, his one weakness the home run ball. Nola make his 37th start against the Braves. He stands 16-11with a 3.60 ERA. His low walk total against the team makes up for the home runs he allowed.
Enjoy!
The Mets beat the White Sox 5-3 on Saturday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .226. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.
They need to go no better than 9-16 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 30 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 137 games is .298. The probability of no more than 9 wins at that level is 0.817. The White Sox are now very close to the replacement winning percentage of .296. The probability at that level comes out at 0.823. The probabilities now indicate that if the White Sox played 100 seasons from this point on, they would finish with 40 wins or 82 times.
If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -7 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .353, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.62, or worse than even. All indicators now point the the White Sox finishing with no more than 40 wins! My best guess right now would be a 39-123 finish.
Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain one and four respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Soto went one for five as his slump continues. Judge posted a one for four with a walk as the Cardinals took the game 6-5.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays used a three for five to stay in second place as Toronto demolished the Twins 15-0. His teammate, Will Wagner, posted a game score of 84, the best of the day. Wagner went five for six with a double and a home run, and played both first and second base in the game. The rookie is hitting .357/.379/.571 in 56 AB. Another teammate, Nathan Lukes, missed the cycle by a homer in the game.
Yordan Alvarez of the Astros went one for three with a walk as Houston downed Kansas City 5-2. He holds third place. Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals broke his string of hitless at bats with a home run in the eighth inning. He ranks fifth.
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
It looks like a blow out for the Orioles today, as eight of their position players make the list against Blach in Colorado. Note that the Log5 Method does not make an adjustment for the park; the NN does that. Blach owns a low K rate of 4.81 per 9 IP, walks few batters, gives up lots of home runs, and opponents own a .348 BABIP against him.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
Only four Orioles make this list, but the two systems agree on the top as O’Hearn and Jimenez rank as the double down choice on both.
Note that today is the last year you can start a streak and still have a chance at reaching 57 games.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
The Braves try to close the gap with the Phillies a little more before September as Max Fried takes on Zack Wheeler. Despite injuries that hurt his K and BB rates, Fried still does an excellent job of preventing home runs. Wheeler trails Chris Sale of the Braves in Tom Tango Cy Young points, so September may be telling for who comes out on top.
Gavin Stone battles Merrill Kelly as the Dodgers try to hold off the Diamondbacks. With the Dodgers playing better lately, their lead in the NL West is back to five games. Stone’s strength is limiting walks, and despite a relatively low K per 9 IP, he does limit hits as well. Kelly stands undefeated at 4-0. Having him back strong for the playoffs should give Arizona an edge that won’t be apparent in the season stats.
Finally, the Mariners visit the Angels with Bryan Woo facing Tyler Anderson. Woo pitched two few innings for his 2.05 ERA to qualify for the AL title, but only Renaldo Lopez of the Braves is better at the 85 inning level. Anderson’s 3.41 ERA hides the decline in his three true outcomes. His FIPs stand at 4.46 and 4.82.
Enjoy!
The Mets beat the White Sox 5-1 on Friday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .228. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.
They need to go no better than 9-17 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 30 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 136 games is .300. The probability of no more than 9 wins at that level is 0.77. The White Sox are now very close to the replacement winning percentage of .296. The probability at that level comes out at 0.78. The probabilities now indicate that if the White Sox played 100 seasons from this point on, they would finish with 40 wins or fewer three quarters of the time.
If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -7 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .355, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.55, or worse than even. All indicators now point the the White Sox finishing with no more than 40 wins!
Note that since Grady Sizemore took over the team on August 8th, they have won just three games. Maybe it wasn’t the manager.
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
Diaz now owns a career .290 BA and a .316 OBP. That OBP is made up of 245 hits and 31 walks. He’s a good example of someone who generates hits eats up some outs. That’s great for extending hit streaks, not so great for the overall offense of the club. On the other hand, he is a catcher, and that’s really good offense for the position.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
The Padres platoon Arraez. I’m not sure if it’s due to his thumb injury, or his splits. It may be both. Baz is a right-hander, so Arraez should be in the lineup tonight. He’s not on the list, but Oneil Cruz owns a ten-game streak, and he’s been on fire since the Pirates removed him from shortstop.
Arraez and Witt tie for the consensus top choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and four respectively in the Baseball Musing Batter Rankings. Judge went 0 for 4 in the 6-3 win over the Cardinals. His probability of 63 home runs this season stands at 0.15. Soto, meanwhile, posted a two for four night with a double, allowing him to move into fourth place as Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals went 0 for 4 in a 3-2 Astros walk off win. He drops to fifth place. In that same game, Yordan Alvarez of the Astros picked up a single to remain in third place.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays also went 0 for 4 in a 2-0 Twins win.
Orlando Arcia of the Braves enjoyed a big game out of the seventh slot as he drew a walk and hit two home runs for a game score of 77, the best of the day. Arcia throughout his career showed decent power for a light hitting middle infielder. He now owns 32 home runs in his last two seasons with the Braves.
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
Framber Valdez just finished seven no-hit innings against the Royals as the Astros lead the game 1-0. Valdez walked three and struck out seven, but at 98 pitches he may not come out for the ninth. The Astros do specialize in multi-pitcher no-hitters, so stay tuned.
Update: Bryan Abreu comes out to pitch the eighth inning for Houston, trying to protect the one-run lead.
Update: Pinch hitter Kyle Isbel grounds a ball the other way for a single, and the no-hitter is over.
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
It looks like a good day for the Red Sox as Mize is a low strikeout and walk pitcher with a high BABIP.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
It’s a day that starts with a Y as you can double down with two Y. Diazes! They are not related. Bill James usually shies away from combined stats comparisons, but does like Duran’s combination of extra-base hits and stolen bases.
All that said, Iglesias and Rosario are the consensus double down picks of the day.
Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees did not play on Thursday, an off day for the team. They remain one and five respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays did place, and hold second place with a two for four, including a double, in a 2-0 win over the Red Sox.
Yordan Alvarez of the Astros and Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals went head-to-head in a 6-3 Houston win. Alvarez went two for four and ranks third, while Witt took an 0 for 4 to rank fourth.
The best game score of the day goes to Lawrence Butler of the Athletics, a 91. He went three for three with a walk and three home runs out of the lead-off slot in a 10-9 Reds win. It’s the second day in a row with a high game score above 90, both on three home run games. It was also Butler’s second three homer game this season. With 19 homer in 2024, nearly a third of them came in two games.
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
Bowden Francis of the Blue Jays pitched five and one third perfect innings against the Red Sox Thursday night. Nick Sogard just broke it up with a single. Bowden flirted with a no-hitter his last time out against the Angels, losing it on a home run in the ninth. The Blue Jays lead the Red Sox 2-0.
The Rangers beat the White Sox 2-1 on Thursday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .230. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.
They need to go no better than 9-18 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 30 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 135 games is .302. The probability of no more than 9 wins at that level is 0.72. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.74. The probabilities now indicate that if the White Sox played 100 seasons from this point on, they would finish with 40 wins or fewer two thirds of the time.
If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -7 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .358, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.43, or nearly one half. Even generous measures of the intrinsic winning percentage of the team have their win total low.
The 1993 expansion teams play in Colorado as two rookies off to good starts take the mound. Valente Bellozo of the Marlins faces Bradley Blalock of the Rockies.
Athletics rookie J.T. Ginn may provide a tonic for the team as he takes on Reds rookie Julian Aguiar.
The Braves trail the Phillies by five games in the NL East as Atlanta send Charlie Morton against Cristopher Sanchez.
Finally, the Royals send Brady Singer against the Astros and Hunter Brown as the two teams vie for division titles. The Royals trail the Guardians by one game in the AL Central, and the Astros lead the Mariners by 3 1/2 games in the AL West.
Enjoy!
The Rangers beat the White Sox twice on Wednesday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .231. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.
They need to go no better than 9-19 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 30 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 134 games is .304. The probability of no more than 9 wins at that level is 0.67. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.70. The probabilities now indicate that if the White Sox played 100 seasons from this point on, they would finish with 40 wins or fewer two thirds of the time.
If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -6 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .353, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.45, or nearly one half. Even generous measures of the intrinsic winning percentage of the team have their win total low.
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
None of these hitters currently is on a long hit streak, although Alvarez, Witt and Carpenter all have streaks of five games.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
Iglesias is in a bit of a slump, 0 for 9 in his last three games. While he is the unanimous choice, he does not start every game. The Mets play at 3:40 PM EDT, so check the lineups early. Witt stands as the double down pick.
Trea Turner is 3 for 17 against Morton with one walk and eight strikeouts.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Yordan Alvarez of the Astros goes four for four with a walk and three home runs to move up to fourth in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. His game score of 98 not only topped the day, but ranks as the second highest game score of the season. It is the 18th time this season a player posted a score of at least 90. Six of those involved three homer games.
Aaron Judge of the Yankees remains at the top of the list after a one for two with two walks in a 5-2 Nationals win. His teammate, Juan Soto, posted an 0 for 4 in the game, and went 0 for 12 with three strikeouts in his visit to his old stomping grounds. That drops him to fifth place.
Valdimir Guerrero Jr of the Blue Jays holds second place after a one for three in a 3-0 Boston win. Bobby Witt Jr. oft the Royals used a two for five game with a home run to move into third place. The Guardians took the game 7-5 to break the tie for first place in the AL Central.