September 11, 2024

White Sox Watch

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The Guardians beat the White Sox 5-0 on Tuesday. They need to win eight more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Now the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins stand at:

MethodIntrinsic WPctProbability of No More than 40
Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins0.2960.931
Replacement Level0.2960.931
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7)0.3470.847
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 40-122

Chicago only needs six more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:

MethodIntrinsic WPctProbability of No More than 38
Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins0.2960.673
Replacement Level0.2960.673
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7)0.3470.500
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 38-124

They are almost certain to finish worse than the 1962 Mets, and only the most generous probability based on their bad luck gives then a 50/50 chance than of finishing ahead of the 1916 Athletics.

September 11, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Miranda hit poorly since his return from the illjured list with a .237/.268/.336 slash line. He knocked out three triples but no home runs.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.278, 0.732 — Luis Arraez batting against Bryan Woo.
  • 0.283, 0.709 — Yainer Diaz batting against Joey Estes.
  • 0.282, 0.707 — Jose Altuve batting against Joey Estes.
  • 0.309, 0.705 — Jose Miranda batting against Jack Kochanowicz.
  • 0.300, 0.702 — Xavier Edwards batting against Bailey Falter.
  • 0.257, 0.701 — Jose Iglesias batting against Bowden Francis.
  • 0.278, 0.695 — Amed Rosario batting against Lance Lynn.
  • 0.297, 0.691 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.270, 0.685 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Joey Estes.
  • 0.293, 0.685 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Casey Mize.

Unlike Miranda, Arraez is hot. He is hitting .462 with a .512 OBP during a nine-game hit streak. Miranda and Edwards come in as the consensus double down picks. Note that it’s a fairly low probability day.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 11, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain first and fourth in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Both took an 0 for 4 with two Ks in a 5-0 Royals win, one of six shutouts on the day. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays went one four in a 6-2 win over the Mets to hold second place. The game drops the Mets into a tie with the Braves for the third wild card slot, the Braves downing Washington 12-0.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros went two for six in a 4-3, twelve inning Athletics win. Alvarez stays in third place, and Houston maintains their lead in the AL West as the Padres beat the Mariners 7-3. In the Athletics game, fifth place Brent Rooker went one for five.

The best game score of the day goes to Trey Turner of the Phillies, a 78. He went three for five with two home runs to beat out his teammate, Bryce Harper, who hit three doubles. The Phillies took the game against the Rays 9-4. Harper ranks 28th, Turner 67th. Turner had an interesting run over the last few weeks, posting a lot of nothing with a few big game puntcuation marks.

September 11, 2024

September 10, 2024

Leading Edge

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Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies led off the bottom of the first inning against the Rays with a home run, his fourteenth lead-off dinger of the season. That sets a new record:

In the bottom of the first inning, Schwarber sent a 1-0 fastball from Rays starter Taj Bradley 437 feet to center field, moving ahead of Alfonso Soriano, who had 13 leadoff homers in 2003 with the New York Yankees.

Schwarber’s 35th homer of the season was the 45th leadoff homer of his career, with 32 coming since joining the Phillies in 2022.

Schwarber walked to lead off the bottom of the third inning and appeared to injure his elbow diving back into first base on a pickoff attempt by Tampa Bay catcher Logan Driscoll.

ESPN.com

Putting a slugger in the lead-off slot worked out well for the Phillies, who rank third in the majors in runs per game since 2022 at 4.80.

September 10, 2024

On the Edge of 100

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The Royals lead the Yankees 2-0 in the fourth inning, with Salvador Perez and Bobby Witt Jr.driving in a run. That gives each of them 99 RBI on the season. The last pair of Royals to have 100 RBI each in a season were Carlos Beltran (105) and Raul Ibanez (103) in 2002. The team, in the late 1990s when everyone was hitting, twice had three players with 100 RBI.

Update: Perez drove in his 100th run in the fifth inning, giving the Royals a 3-0 lead. In addition, Seth Lugo has a one-hitter in the sixth as the Yankees are yet to score.

September 10, 2024

White Sox Watch

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The Guardians beat the White Sox 5-3 on Monday. They need to win eight more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Now the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins stand at:

MethodIntrinsic WPctProbability of No More than 40
Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins0.2980.899
Replacement Level0.2960.902
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7)0.3490.790
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 40-122

Chicago only needs six more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:

MethodIntrinsic WPctProbability of No More than 38
Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins0.2980.604
Replacement Level0.2960.611
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7)0.3490.423
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 38-124

They are almost certain to finish worse than the 1962 Mets, and only the most generous probability based on their bad luck gives them a better chance than not of finishing ahead of the 1916 Athletics.

September 10, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It’s the usual group at the top. Note that Lawrence Butler of Oakland currently holds an 18 game streak.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.326, 0.757 — Luis Arraez batting against George Kirby.
  • 0.304, 0.726 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Bassitt.
  • 0.302, 0.722 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Marcus Stroman.
  • 0.282, 0.701 — Amed Rosario batting against Andre Pallante.
  • 0.290, 0.700 — Jackson Merrill batting against George Kirby.
  • 0.285, 0.695 — Jose Miranda batting against Griffin Canning.
  • 0.289, 0.693 — Marcell Ozuna batting against MacKenzie Gore.
  • 0.274, 0.692 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against David Peterson.
  • 0.274, 0.688 — Jarren Duran batting against Albert Suarez.
  • 0.276, 0.687 — Freddy Fermin batting against Marcus Stroman.

The two systems agree on the top three, with Arraez and Iglesias the double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 10, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and four respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Judge posted a two for four with walk while Soto went one for two with three walks as New York downed the Royals 10-4 in a game decided by the bullpens. James McArthur of the Royals failed to book Murder’s Row, while the Yankees bullpen pitched three shutout innings,

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays draws a walk in a 3-2 Mets win to hold second place. The Astros and Athletics sat idle on Monday leaving Yordan Alvarez and Brent Rooker in third and fifth place respectively.

Rob Refsnyder of the Red Sox posted the highest game score of the day, a 94. He went four for four with a walk, a double, and two home runs in a 12-3 rout of the Orioles. It was the second day in a row with a game score of 94. The majors have now seen 22 game scored of at least 90 this season. At seasonal age 33, Refsnyder already posted the best year of his career. His strength is getting on base, and his .362 OBP is in line with that. This season he added 16 doubles and 11 home runs to the mix for a slugging percentage of .474.

September 10, 2024

September 9, 2024

Just When You Think Things Can’t Get Worse

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The King Lear season continues for the White Sox. When you think things can’t get worse, a Guardians rookie just completed six perfect inning against Chicago. Joey Cantillo struck out nine so far on 79 pitches. He’s making his sixth appearance and fifth start, and came into the game with a 7.71 ERA.

Update: I didn’t realize Lear pitched for the Reds. I was talking about the play.

Update: Andrew Benintendi singles between the hole between first and second to break up the perfect game with two out in the seventh. Still a great game by Cantillo. The Guardians lead 5-0.

September 9, 2024

Kranepool Passes

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The Original Met, Ed Kranepool, died Sunday of cardiac arrest at age 79:

“We are incredibly heartbroken to learn of Ed Kranepool’s passing,” a statement from Mets owners Steve and Alex Cohen read. “He was an original Met, who debuted at age 17 in 1962. After starring at James Monroe High School in the Bronx, he would go on to play for his hometown team for the next 18 years, the longest tenured player in franchise history, appearing in 1,853 games with the Mets.

“Ed hit a home run in Game 3 of the 1969 World Series to help the Miracle Mets capture the title. He was inducted into the Mets Hall of Fame in 1990. Ed continued to work tirelessly in the community on behalf of the organization after his playing career ended. We cherished the time we spent with Ed during Old Timers’ Day and in the years since. Hearing Mets stories and history from Ed was an absolute joy. We extend our thoughts and prayers to his family and friends.”

FoxNews.com

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

I started watching baseball earnest in 1969. Both the Mets and Yankees game were available to me, and I watched plenty of both. Kranepool was one of those people who looked more mature than his actual age, and because my memory of him is that of a nine year old, I was a bit shocked that he was only 79. For some reason, I thought he should be somewhat older.

Part of that came from him being a player in his prime who was already a part-time player. His best season came in 1971 at the age of 26 when he posted a 2.4 WAR in 122 games. His OBP was an okay .316, but he was a lefty first baseman who didn’t slug. Note that it wasn’t Shea Stadium and the Polo Grounds; he slugged .388 at home during his career, .365 on the road.

He was beloved, however. He was the Mets player who for nearly the first two decades of the team was always there, always giving his all, proud to be the face of the franchise.

Kranepool did have a sense of humor as you can see in this appearance in a Saturday Night Live film from 1979. Kranepool comes in at about 2:30

I know Mets fans are rightly saddened today. It’s a great game, one in which even an okay player can become a legend.

September 9, 2024

Games of the Day

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Rookies square off in Pittsburgh as Valente Bellozo of the Marlins faces Paul Skenes. Bellozo’s 3.78 ERA isn’t bad for his first nine starts in the majors, but his three true outcomes are low when they should be high and vice-versa. Skenes owns the second lowest ERA in the majors among pitcher with at least 110 innings.

The Royals and the Yankees could revive the old 1970’s playoff rivalry in the 2024 post season. The meet in the Bronx tonight as Brady Singer takes on Carlos Rodon. Singer looks to win his tenth game in a season for the second time in his career. He holds opponents to a .392 slugging percentage, and that could help him against a slugging lineup. Rodon goes for his 15th win, which would set a single season high for him. He pitched well in his last nine starts, sporting a 3.28 ERA. Sixty seven strikeouts in 49 1/3 innings helped.

Enjoy!

September 9, 2024

Weekly Look at Offense

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Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous year through the same number of full weeks. Through 23 weeks, games in 2024 generated 8.85 runs per game compared to 9.25 the previous season. The 0.4 runs per game drop gets contributions across the board. Home runs are down from 2.49 per game to 2.25 per game, and it looks like we are headed for 400 fewer home runs this year. Walks are down from 6.48 per game to 6.14 per game, and other hits dropped from 14.42 per game to 14.17 per game. Even hit by pitches are down slightly, from 0.87 per game to 0.85 per game. Overall, there are 0.8 fewer batters reaching base per game.

That’s with strikeouts down from 17.16 per game to 16.88 per game. More balls in play should lead to more hits, but that didn’t happen this season.

Week 23 was a low offensive week, with 8.52 runs per game. It was the highest strikeout week of the year, with 18.1 strikeouts per game. It’s unlikely that 2024 catches up any with 2023, as weeks 24 and 25 were fairly high scoring in 2023.

September 9, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It looks like a good night for the Dodgers against Hendricks. Betts hit .309/.368/.596 since his return. The high BA with a relatively low OBP means he collected hits in 80% of his games since returning. Betts currently owns an eight game hit streak.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.304, 0.727 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Bassitt.
  • 0.301, 0.710 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Paul Blackburn.
  • 0.280, 0.709 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Carlos Rodon.
  • 0.306, 0.707 — Freddie Freeman batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.312, 0.706 — Mookie Betts batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.292, 0.700 — Jarren Duran batting against Cade Povich.
  • 0.287, 0.697 — Yandy Diaz batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
  • 0.285, 0.693 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Cade Povich.
  • 0.302, 0.693 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.275, 0.687 — Jose Miranda batting against Reid Detmers.
  • 0.281, 0.687 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Nick Martinez.

The two systems agree to a large extend on the players, but not the order. Iglesias comes out as the consensus top pick, with Betts and Freeman tied for second. Freeman is 9 for 14 with four walks and two strikeouts against Hendricks. Betts is three for nine with a walk and a K.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 9, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank first and fifth respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Judge singled and walked, while Soto took an 0 for 4 in the 2-1 Cubs victory Sunday.

Vladimir Guerrero of the Blue Jays holds second place. He drew a walk in a 4-3 Braves win in a game that went eleven innings. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros drew a walk in four trips to the plate in a 12-6 Diamondbacks win for third place.

In that same game, Pavin Smith of the Diamondbacks went three four four with a walk and three home runs for a game score of 94, the best of the day. It’s the 21 game score of 90 or better this season, and the fifth best overall. He drove in eight runs in the game, hitting a grand slam, a three run homer, and a solo shot. It was a night to remember for Smith, who owns a career .394 slugging percentage.

Brent Rooker of the Athletics rounds out the top five in fourth place after drawing a walk in a 9-1 Tigers win.

September 9, 2024

September 8, 2024

Homer Cycle?

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Pavin Smith of the Diamondbacks hit three home runs against the Astros this Sunday night. He hit a three-run shot in the second inning, a grand slam in the third inning, and a solo shot in the fifth inning. He has a chance at not only tying the record for home runs in a game with four, but being the first player to hit for the home run cycle! He just needs the two-run shot.

Smith game into the game with a career 32 home runs in 1056 at bats.

The Diamondbacks lead the Astros 9-5 in the bottom of the fifth inning.

Update: Eugenio Suarez singled to set up the cycle, but Smith struck out. It’s 9-5 Arizona in the top of the seventh inning.

Update: Suarez leads off the ninth with a home run. Smith then bats with the bases empty and walks. The DBacks lead 12-5.

September 8, 2024

White Sox Watch

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The White Sox beat the Red Sox 7-2 Sunday afternoon, taking advantage of Boston reliever Zack Kelly, charged with five runs late in the game. This afternoon, the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins stand at:

MethodIntrinsic WPctProbability of No More than 40
Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins0.2990.861
Replacement Level0.2960.868
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7)0.3520.722
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 40-122

Chicago only needs six more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:

MethodIntrinsic WPctProbability of No More than 38
Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins0.2990.538
Replacement Level0.2960.549
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7)0.3520.348
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 38-124

So after Sunday’s win they are somewhere between a 1 in 3 to even to relieve the Athletics of their dismal record. Finishing worse than the 1962 Mets, however, is still a very strong possibility.

September 8, 2024

Rare Loss

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The Rays defeat the Orioles 2-0 in the early Sunday game. It’s a rare type of loss for Baltimore, as they came into the day tied for fewest time shutout this season with five. Six other teams were also at five coming into the day, so was rather crowded. Of those six other teams, only the Giants and Cardinals are out of the playoff picture.

Rays pitching struck out eleven and walked three, while all five hits they allowed went for singles.

September 8, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Royals go for a sweep of the Twins in Kansas City as Simeon Woods Richardson faces Michael Wacha. It’s too bad Woods Richardson only throw a 93 MPH fastball. Given his birthplace, “Sugarland Express” would be a good nickname. He can afford fewer strikeouts, as the opposition owns a .268 BABIP against him this season. Wacha, in his twelfth season, only reach the qualifying level of 162 inning twice. At 144 IP now, he’ll need to go decently deep in his remaining starts to bring his total to three.

The Yankees go for a shutout sweep of the Cubs as Gerrit Cole tries to keep the team’s 19 scoreless inning streak alive against Jameson Taillon. Cole celebrates his 34th birthday today. He owns a 1.85 ERA since the start of August, striking out 40 and allowing just two home runs in 34 innings. Taillon showed his usual great control this season, walking just 1.73 batters per nine IP.

Finally, the Guardians take on the Dodgers with Tanner Bibee battling Jack Flaherty. Bibee combines a high K rate, 9.79 in 2024 with a low BABIP allowed, .286. Flaherty did his job of helping the Dodgers rotation, going 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA. He doesn’t go deep in games, but he pitching into the sixth inning in each of his six starts.

Enjoy!

September 8, 2024

White Sox Watch

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I keep getting dragged back into this post by college roommates. Both possess mathematical minds, and both work as lawyers. The first expressed interest in the probability of finish worse than the 1962 Mets, their .250 winning percentage the worst in the 162 game era. This morning, the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins stand at:

MethodIntrinsic WPctProbability of No More than 40
Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins0.2940.925
Replacement Level0.2960.922
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7).3470.822
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 40-122

Yesterday, the other lawyer inquired about the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:

MethodIntrinsic WPctProbability of No More than 38
Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins0.2940.687
Replacement Level0.2960.680
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7).3470.492
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 38-124

So after Saturday’s loss, they are at best 50-50 to relieve the Athletics of their dismal record.

September 8, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Yainer Diaz continues to rise in the Beat the Streak rankings, now passing long time top ten teammate Jose Altuve. Diaz even managed three triples this season.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.302, 0.745 — Luis Arraez batting against Spencer Bivens.
  • 0.310, 0.723 — Yainer Diaz batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.297, 0.722 — Jose Iglesias batting against Julian Aguiar.
  • 0.308, 0.721 — Jose Altuve batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.279, 0.713 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Simeon Woods Richardson.
  • 0.303, 0.711 — Jarren Duran batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.299, 0.705 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.296, 0.703 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.307, 0.696 — Jackson Chourio batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.305, 0.695 — William Contreras batting against Kyle Freeland.

Arraez owns a seven game hit streak during which he’s hitting .414. Diaz comes out as the consensus top pick, with Altuve the consensus double down choice. Mix and match as you like. The Astros are playing the late game today, so Diaz might not get the day off.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 8, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and four respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Judge walked once and Soto twice as pitching dominated again, the Yankees shutting out the Cubs for the second game in a row, 2-0.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays holds second place with one for five in a 9-5 win over the Braves. His teammate, Spencer Horwitz did a lot of damage in that game, going four for five with a double and two home runs for a game score of 87, the highest on the Saturday. After a cup of coffee in 2023, Horowitz should wind up playing over half the Jays games in 2024. His strength is getting on base, with a career .354 OBP. Power like last night would be a plus. Note that at seasonal age 26 he is not a prospect, but a player doing well in his prime.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros contributed to an 11-5 win over the Diamondbacks with a three for five night, including a double. That puts him in third place. Brent Rooker of the Athletic takes fifth place with a one for four in a 2-1 Tigers win.

September 8, 2024

September 7, 2024

Nationals No No

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The Nationals own a combined no-hitter through six innings as they lead the Pirates 4-0. DJ Herz pitched five innings, walking three, then Robert Garcia came on to extend the no-hitter to six innings. September is a good month for no-hitters, so stay tuned.

Update: Nick Gonzalez singles up the middle with two out in the seventh to end the no-hitter.

September 7, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Yankees at the Cubs offers an excellent early pitching matchup as Clarke Schmidt takes on Javier Assad. Schmidt makes his first start since May. He returns to the rotation with a 2.52 ERA in eleven starts. He allowed seven hits and struck out 18 in 11 1/3 rehab innings. Assad owns a 3.21 ERA in 120 innings. He pitched consistently well in his short MLB career, with a 14-9 record and 3.13 ERA in 273 innings.

The Royals are now 1/2 game ahead of the Twins for the second AL wild card slot as they host Minnesota for the second game of their weekend series. Bailey Ober faces Alec Marsh. The Royals hit Ober hard this year, scoring 14 runs in 6 1/3 innings in two starts. That includes six of the 22 home runs Ober allowed. I guess it’s Ober and out when he faces Kansas City. Marsh is a little better, with a 5.51 ERA in two career starts against the Twins. He allowed three home runs in twelve innings.

Finally, Logan Webb of the Giants takes on Dylan Cease of the Padres. Both pitchers own records just over .500 despite good ERAs. Webb uses low walk and home run rates to compensate for his low K rate, while Cease uses a very high K rate to compensate for his middling walk and HR rates.

Enjoy!

September 7, 2024

White Sox Watch

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I had a request to update the White Sox probability of finishing with a lower winning percentage than the 1962 Mets. After the loss to the Red Sox Friday night, the 95% confidence interval method gives them a possible high winning percentage of .296, which is also the replacement level winning percentage. The probability of them winning no more than eight games comes in at 0.89.

The White Sox stand seven games below their Pythagorean win total, and using that as a floor on their winning percentage they evaluate to .349. That would mean their probability of no more than 8 wins is 0.77.

The team really needs a winning streak.

September 7, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Blach liners matter, as opponents manage a line drive against him 25.2% of the time. The Brewers look like good bets to take advantage of that, although they are playing in Milwaukee today. Note that the Nationals and Pirates play a doubleheader, so be careful picking from those games.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

The NN list depends more on the batter than the pitcher, so this list produces a more diverse list of teams. It’s the fourth day in a row for a high probability of a hit from Arraez, who owns a six-game hit streak. Chourio ranks as the consensus top pick, with Arraez the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 7, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Yordan Alvarez of the Astros makes a big move on Friday night, going from sixth place to third in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. His two for four with two home runs and five RBI produced a game score of 75, tied for third best on the day. Houston beat Arizona 8-0.

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and four respectively. Judge doubled and walked in the 3-0 win over the Cubs, while Soto picked up a single. Judge leads the AL and the majors with 85 extra-base hits.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays sits in second place after a one for four in a 3-1 Braves win. Brent Rooker of the Athletics takes fifth place after going three for five with a double in a 7-6, 13 inning win over the Tigers.

Mark Vientos of the Mets and Manny Machado of the Padres tie for highest game score of the day, a 79. Both homered twice, Vientos second an extra-inning walk off to give the Mets a 6-4 win over the Reds. At seasonal age 24, Vientos emerged as a solid offensive player with excellent power, now batting .289/.342/.563 on the season. Machado got off to a slow start this season, with a .241/.293/.361 slash line through the end of May. It looks like the rust came off starting in June, as he has hit .298/.348/.544 since.