September 15, 2024

Handling a Scandal

The LA Times criticizes the way the Dodgers and MLB handled the Shohei Ohtani betting scandal. The big complaint is that they farmed out the crisis to Ohtani’s agent and a PR firm instead of the club taking control. I agree that the PR firm hired was not a good choice:

The league had encountered Balelo and Hiltzik in tough times before. They represented Ryan Braun when the Milwaukee Brewers outfielder was fighting allegations of testing positive for a prohibited level of testosterone in 2011. Braun appealed the finding and suggested that the man who collected the testing specimen might have mishandled it. He won the appeal and publicly thanked Balelo and Hiltzik for their support.

Later, however, Braun’s name appeared in the records of a clinic that dispensed performance-enhancing drugs and the player admitted to a “huge mistake” in using a “banned substance.” He apologized to the specimen collector and accepted a lengthy suspension.

LATimes.com

Although it’s not mentioned in the article, I wonder if the outside handling of cases like this protects the teams and league from grievances from the MLBPA? The other thing is that MLB and the Dodgers should not be seen as interfering in a federal investigation. I do agree with Scott Boras on this point:

“I would have never allowed the interpreter go to the press,” Boras said. “Why would I trust anything he says? I would have had him arrested on the spot.”

I’m not sure there were any easy decisions here.

September 15, 2024

Games of the Day

Detroit hosts Baltimore, the Tigers chasing the Twins for third wild card spot in the AL. The Orioles send Cade Povich against Keider Montero in what could be a slugfest at high noon, the opening game of Roberto Clemente Day. Povich owns a 5.91 ERA in his rookie season, allowing eleven home runs in 64 innings. Montero, also a rookie allowed 14 home runs in his 83 innings.

Meanwhile the Twins host the Reds, Cincinnati sending rookie sensation Rhett Lowder against David Festa. Lowder makes the fourth start of his career, and so far allowed one earned run in 15 1/3 innings, despite walking eight batters. He allowed just one hit with runners in scoring position. Festa the fourth rookie in the group, owns a 5.08 ERA. He walked just 16 batters in 51 1/3 innings, but allowed nine home runs.

The Mets and Phillies play the rubber game of their weekend series with David Peterson facing Cristopher Sanchez. Peterson, posting the best year of his career, tries to reach 10 wins in a season for the first time. He allowed just eight home runs in 102 2/3 innings. Sanchez owns two complete games, tied for the NL lead. The Phillies have a total of five complete games by four different pitchers. No other NL team has more than two CG.

The Mariners are tied with Detroit in the wild card chase as Seattle hosts Texas. Andrew Heaney battles George Kirby. Heaney, despite a 3.84 ERA, set his single season high in losses with 13. He’s been an innings eater for the Rangers, with 145 1/3 innings under his belt. Kirby, with a 3.77 ERA stands 11-11, as he too goes deep in games with 172 IP.

Enjoy!

September 15, 2024

White Sox Watch

The White Sox beat the Athletics 7-6 on Saturday. It was a dramatic win as Chicago twice blew three run leads, the second time in the top of the ninth inning. Andew Benintendi, three for five in the game, hit a walk off home run for the win.

Chicago needs to win seven more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:

MethodIntrinsic WPctProbability of No More than 40
Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins0.2970.941
Replacement Level0.2960.942
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8)0.3550.862
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 40-122

Chicago only needs five more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:

MethodIntrinsic WPctProbability of No More than 38
Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins0.2970.663
Replacement Level0.2960.666
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8)0.3550.485
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 38-124

They are almost certain to finish worse than the 1962 Mets, and only the most generous probability based on their bad luck gives then an even chance than of finishing worse than the 1916 Athletics. In fact they are now favorites in five of the six scenarios to be the worst team of the modern era. My guess would be a 37-125 finish.

September 15, 2024

Best Batter Today

Francisco Lindor of the Mets moves into the fifth slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He did not play on Saturday due to a back injury, but is considered day to day. The race for fifth place is very close with five through nine separated by less than two points.

Aaron Judge of the Yankees remains on top after a one for four with a double in a 7-1 Red Sox win. That gives him 87 extra-base hits, so he would need to turn on the jets to reach 100 EXBH in 2024.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays ranks second after collecting a single and a walk in a 7-2 win over the Cardinals. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros posted a one for four with a walk and a home run for third place. Houston beat LAnaheim 5-3. Brent Rooker of the Athletics enjoyed a good night at the plate, going three for five in a rare White Sox win, 7-6. Rooker ranks fourth.

The highest game score of Saturday belonged to Willy Adames of the Brewers, an 84. He posted a perfect night at the plate, going three for three with a walk and two home runs in a 15-8 win over the Diamondbacks. Adames reached 32 home runs on the season, a new single season high for him.

September 15, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

The list runs a little longer today because ESPN lists both Rodgers and Fitzgerald as day to day. Both Mikolas and Buehler allow a high number of hits and the two slugger at the top of the list can take advantage of that. The Dodgers-Braves is the Sunday night game, so you may need to wait awhile for the starting lineups.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.285, 0.741 — Luis Arraez batting against Landen Roupp.
0.317, 0.738 — Jose Iglesias batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
0.325, 0.721 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.289, 0.714 — Yainer Diaz batting against Caden Dana.
0.319, 0.712 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Walker Buehler.
0.283, 0.705 — Jose Altuve batting against Caden Dana.
0.270, 0.705 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Jared Jones.
0.298, 0.702 — Xavier Edwards batting against MacKenzie Gore.
0.300, 0.698 — Michael Harris II batting against Walker Buehler.
0.304, 0.697 — Ernie Clement batting against Miles Mikolas.

The NN rates the pesky hitters like Arraez and Iglesias higher than the sluggers, but the sluggers still do well on the list. Note that both Arraez and Iglesias own decent hit streaks. Lawrence Butler, who is at 22 games, has a probability of getting a hit of .642 and a projected hit average of .242.

Guerrero comes in as the consensus top pick with Iglesias the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 15, 2024

September 14, 2024

The Other Slugger

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals gained on Aaron Judge of the Yankees in extra-base hits and total bases as Judge collect a double in the 7-1 Red Sox win, and Witt hit a double and a home run in a 5-1 win over the Pirates. Entering today, Judge led led Witt in extra-base hits by three and total bases by eight. Those leads are down to two and four.

Witt currently owns a .333/.385/.599 slash line to Judge’s .321/.453/.687 line. Witt is more likely to get a hit, but Judge swamps Witt in walks. Since they have about the same number of plate appearances (Witt leads by one), Judge’s AB denominator for slugging percentage is smaller, driving up the average with about the same number of total bases.

Judge as the offensive side won, but that’s a lot of power from a shortstop. We’ll see if the voters are sway by the position difference if the EXBH number stay this close.

September 14, 2024

The Cole IBB

I have not seen Yankees Aaron Boone‘s explanation of the intentional walk (IBB) to Rafael Devers of the Red Sox. The two out pass led to three runs against Gerrit Cole in a game the Red Sox won 7-1. This tidbit I did find interesting:

Cole’s intentional walk was the pitcher’s first since he was with Pittsburgh and put on Milwaukee’s Travis Shaw with runners on second and third in the third inning of a 2-2 game on Sept. 12, 2017.

Chron.com

On reason Cole hasn’t issued any walks is that since 2018 he played for he two teams least likely to issue an intentional walk. The Astros put 37 men on intentionally in the last seven seasons, the Yankees 59, including today. The next nearest team is Detroit with 84, and I’m pretty sure former Astros manager A.J. Hinch has something to do with that. With more former Astros in Baltimore, they are fourth with 87. Then it’s a more normal progression from the Twins at 101.

That makes the IBB all the more improbable, since the Yankees seem to follow the Astros doctrine of not issuing IBBs. The story gives some reasons why the Yankees did this, but none of them seems that strong.

September 14, 2024

Games of the Day

The Mets try to make it two game in a row against the Phillies in their weekend series. New York is now seven games back of Philadelphia with six more games head-to-head. Will there be a celebration on the 60th anniversary of the 1964 crash? The Phillies were 89-58, one game better than the current team when things started falling apart.

Luis Severino takes on Kolby Allard. In his only start against the Phillies, Severino pitched seven shutout innings, walking none and striking out nine. Allard allowed five home runs in eighteen innings this season.

The Dodgers and Braved continue their series in Atlanta with a battle of veterans. Jack Flaherty faces Chris Sale. Flaherty is posting his best season since 2019, Sale since 2018. Both are doing well in the Cy Young tracker, with Sale in position to be the favorite for the NL side of the award.

Enjoy!

September 14, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

In his 325 MLB PA, Edwards owns a .388 BABIP. That’s good news against Patrick Corbin, who has been easy to hit over the last few seasons.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.334, 0.763 — Luis Arraez batting against Mason Black.
  • 0.321, 0.739 — Jose Iglesias batting against Kolby Allard.
  • 0.337, 0.729 — Xavier Edwards batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.307, 0.725 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Mitch Keller.
  • 0.294, 0.703 — Jackson Merrill batting against Mason Black.
  • 0.265, 0.700 — Yainer Diaz batting against Tyler Anderson.
  • 0.285, 0.698 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Kyle Gibson.
  • 0.274, 0.693 — Trea Turner batting against Luis Severino.
  • 0.260, 0.692 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Anderson.
  • 0.296, 0.691 — Cody Bellinger batting against Kyle Freeland.

The two systems agree on the top four, in a slightly different order. Lawrence Butler does not appear on either list, but has hit in 21 straight games. The NN gives him a probability of .668.

Arraez once again is the top pick, with Edwards the consensus double down choice. Both Arraez and Iglesias are working on decent hit streaks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 14, 2024

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and five respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Judge ended his sixteen game home run drought with a two for three, including a walk, a single, and a grand slam to give the Yankees a 5-4 win over the Red Sox. Soto walked in four trips. The Yankees now lead the Orioles by three games in the AL East. Baltimore now has Kansas City to contend with for the first wild card slot, the Royals just two games back.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays ranks second as doubles and walks in a 4-3 win over the Cardinals in eleven innings. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros sits in third place as he homers in a 5-3 win over the Angles. Brent Rooker of the Athletics collects a single in the 2-0 win over the White Sox for fourth place.

The highest game score of the day belonged to Hunter Goodman of the Rockies, an 84. He went three for four with two home runs and seven RBI. The light hitting catcher does generate power, as eighteen of his 35 hits feel for extra bases.

September 14, 2024

September 13, 2024

deGrom reTurns

Jacob deGrom of the Rangers makes it through an inning without suffering another injury. He gave up a hit, but struck out two batters as his velocity is high, and he looked smooth on the mound. He returns too late to help the Rangers this season, but he can give them hope for next season. Texas leads Seattle 2-0 at the end of one inning.

September 13, 2024

White Sox Watch

The Athletics beat the White Sox 2-0 on Friday. Chicago needs to win eight more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins stand at:

MethodIntrinsic WPctProbability of No More than 40
Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins0.2920.973
Replacement Level0.2960.971
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8)0.3500.925
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 40-122

Chicago only needs six more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:

MethodIntrinsic WPctProbability of No More than 38
Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins0.2920.800
Replacement Level0.2960.791
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8)0.3500.641
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 38-124

They are almost certain to finish worse than the 1962 Mets, and only the most generous probability based on their bad luck gives then a 5/8 chance than of finishing worse than the 1916 Athletics. In fact they are now favorites in every scenario to be the worst team of the modern era.

September 13, 2024

September 13, 2024

Tigers in the Ninth

The Detroit Tigers lead the visiting Orioles 1-0 as the teams go to the top of the ninth inning. The Tigers have a no-hitter intact, their three pitchers walking just one batter in the game.

Update: Tyler Holton comes on to pitch for the Tigers.

Update: Emmanuel Rivera leads off and falls behind 1-2. He lifts the next pitch to deep right for a fly out.

Update: Coby Mayo pinch hits. He gets ahead 2-1. Mayo works the count full. He fouls off three pitches then gets caught looking at a pitch the lower outside corner.

Update: Gunnar Henderson lines the first pitch down the rightfield line for a triple.

Update: Anthony Santander gets ahead 2-1. He fouls off a pitch, then swings and misses. The Tigers throw a one-hitter and wins 1-0.

September 13, 2024

Hurts So Good

The Tigers deployed an opener on Friday against the Orioles. Beau Brieske retired the first four batter before giving way to rookie Brant Hurter. Hurter started blowing away batters, with seven K through four and two thirds innings, retiring all fourteen batters he faced. The Tigers lead 1-0 in the middle of the sixth as Detroit bids for the first combined perfect game.

Update: Hurter gets two ground outs and his eighth K to keep the perfecto through seven innings. Detroit still leads 1-0.

Update: Adley Rutschman walks on a 3-2 count to start the top of the eighth inning. The perfect game is over. Hurter comes out of the game as the Orioles send up a right-handed pinch hitter. Brenan Hanifee comes in to try to preserve the no-hitter and 1-0 lead.

Update: Hanifee gets all three batters he faces, and the Tigers will take a no-hitter into the ninth inning.

September 13, 2024

Games of the Day

Pitching dominated in game one of the Red Sox at the Yankees, and it might in game two as Tanner Houck takes on Clarke Schmidt. Houck comes into the game with a 3.24 ERA in 169 2/3 innings. It looks like he can reach 190 innings, and if he goes really deep games, 200 is not out of the question. This season he did a great job of limiting power, with a .327 opposition slugging percentage. Schmidt uses the same three numbers in his ERA, but comes in at 2.34. His high K rate and low walk rate keep batters off base the tune of a .303 OBP.

The Athletics try to push the White Sox deeper into losing territory as Brady Basso faces Garrett Crochet. Basso makes the second start and fifth appearance of his MLB career. So far he showed some control, walking one and striking out nine in 9 1/3 innings. Crochet has been on an downward spiral since the end of July. He ranked 63 in the Bill James power ranking, but now has fallen to 80. His ERA stands at 7.32 during the slide.

Enjoy!

September 13, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

There’s a good article at MLB.com about Arraez’s streak of not striking out. Balls in play lead to hits. He’s hitting .381 since Aug. 11th, with 43 hits in 27 games, 0 K, five walks, and two hit by pitches. Note that Kwan, with 50 K in 475 in 537 PA doesn’t strikeout much either by today’s standards.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.329, 0.760 — Luis Arraez batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.294, 0.721 — Jose Iglesias batting against Aaron Nola.
  • 0.270, 0.705 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Luis Ortiz.
  • 0.272, 0.703 — Yainer Diaz batting against Samuel Aldegheri.
  • 0.288, 0.698 — Jackson Merrill batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.268, 0.696 — Jose Altuve batting against Samuel Aldegheri.
  • 0.300, 0.696 — Steven Kwan batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.272, 0.693 — Trea Turner batting against Jose Quintana.
  • 0.268, 0.688 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Erick Fedde.
  • 0.281, 0.687 — Donovan Solano batting against Logan Webb.

Note that Arraez’s ability not to K puts him way ahead of everyone else in terms of probability of getting a hit. Altuve remains day to day with an injury. Jose Iglesias is the consensus double down pick:

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 13, 2024

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and five respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Judge went one for four as his homerless streak continues. Soto walked and doubled, his double driving in the Manfred Man in the tenth to beat the Red Sox 2-1.

Second place goes to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as he and the Blue Jays sat idle on Thursday.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros took an 0 for 4 in a 6-3 win over the Athletics. Brent Rooker of the A’s homered i for trips for fourth place.

Jon Singleton of the Astros went three for four with two doubles for a game score of 68, the highest on the day. Singleton did a decent job of getting on base this season. His batting average is a low .239, but with 42 walks his OBP comes in at .322. His weakness is power, as his slugging percentage stands at .393.

September 13, 2024

September 12, 2024

Where are the Mariners Fans?

I turned on the Rangers at the Mariners to see Kumar Rocker debut on the mound for Texas. I am a bit surprised at the sparse turnout for the game. The Mariners still have a shot at winning the division. They have a great pitching staff. Rocker’s debut is big news. Could it be Seattlites are staying home to watch east coast teams in a football game? Or do the fans just arrive late, like they do in Los Angeles?

September 12, 2024

Games of the Day

The Red Sox come into Yankee Stadium four games out of the third wild card slot in the AL as Cooper Criswell faces Nestor Cortes. Criswell tends to give up hits, in part due to a low strikeout rate. He compensates by limiting home runs and walks. Cortes does a better job of limiting hits, but batters can take him deep as he allowed 23 home runs in 163 1/3 innings. This is the first time in his career he crossed the 162 inning qualifying barrier. He owns the fifth lowest walks per nine innings in the AL.

Kumar Rocker makes his MLB debut for the Rangers in Arizona against Bryce Miller. Rocker right now is known more for his draft history. Taken by the Mets in 2021, New York decided not to sign him due to medical concerns. The Rangers signed him the next season, only to see his 2023 season in the minors lead to Tommy John surgery. His promotion to the majors was unexpected:

But Rocker forced their hand.

He made two starts following a promotion to Triple-A Round Rock in late August, allowing just four hits and two runs over 10 innings while punching out a whopping 18 batters, including a career-best 10 strikeouts on Aug. 28.

“I think you have to look at the body of work,” Rangers manager Bruce Bochy said Tuesday. “It’s really, really impressive. It’s something he’s earned and he’s a big part of the Rangers’ future. Why not give him some time up here?”

MLB.com

It seems he has “a Batmobile so I can reach ya in a fast shake.”

Miller, in his second MLB season, lowered his ERA by over a run. He is part of a rotation, with George Kirby and Logan Gilbert who are very stingy with walks.

Enjoy!

September 12, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

On a day with just eight games, some of the high average sluggers make the top ten. Note that Jose Altuve left the game on Wednesday with an injury, so check his status if you decide to pick him.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.308, 0.723 — Yainer Diaz batting against Mitch Spence.
  • 0.306, 0.721 — Jose Altuve batting against Mitch Spence.
  • 0.297, 0.709 — Harold Ramirez batting against Darren McCaughan.
  • 0.297, 0.704 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Mitch Spence.
  • 0.299, 0.702 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Darren McCaughan.
  • 0.289, 0.694 — Xavier Edwards batting against Mitchell Parker.
  • 0.288, 0.690 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.257, 0.680 — Amed Rosario batting against Sonny Gray.
  • 0.269, 0.680 — Jarren Duran batting against Nestor Cortes.
  • 0.267, 0.679 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Nestor Cortes.

There is good agreement between the two lists, coming up with the same top seven in a slightly different order. Diaz and Altuve are the unanimous double down picks. If Altuve can’t play, Ramirez would be the double down pick. It’s also possible that Diaz doesn’t play, since it’s a day game after a night game and that is usually a day of rest for first string catchers.

September 12, 2024

Best Batter Today

Brent Rooker of the Athletics moved up a spot to fourth, about 0.3 points ahead of Juan Soto of the Yankees in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Rooker went two for five with two RBI in a 5-4 win over the Astros. Soto went one for five with a home run and two RBI in the Yankees 4-3, extra inning win over the Royals. His teammate, Aaron Judge went one for three with two walks to remain in first place.

Second place belongs to Yordan Alvarez of the Astros. He moved past Vladimir Guerrero Jr of the Blue Jays with with two for four game, while Guerrero went one for four in a 6-2 loss to the Mets, the Blue Jays wasting another near no-hitter by Bowden Francis.

The best game score of the day belonged to Eugenio Suarez of the Diamondbacks. He went four for four with two home runs in the 14-4 win over the Rangers. That was good for a score of 88. He jumps from 13th place to 6th place! He’s hitting .500/.558/1.132 in September.

September 12, 2024

September 11, 2024

White Sox Watch

The Guardians beat the White Sox 6-4 on Wednesday. They need to win eight more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Now the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins stand at:

MethodIntrinsic WPctProbability of No More than 40
Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins0.2940.955
Replacement Level0.2960.954
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8)0.3520.883
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 40-122

Chicago only needs six more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:

MethodIntrinsic WPctProbability of No More than 38
Wins
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins0.2940.739
Replacement Level0.2960.733
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+8)0.3520.558
2024 White Sox finishing no better than 38-124

They are almost certain to finish worse than the 1962 Mets, and only the most generous probability based on their bad luck gives then a 50/50 chance than of finishing ahead of the 1916 Athletics. In fact they are now favorites in every scenario to be the worst team of the modern era.

September 11, 2024

Francis in the Ninth

Bowden Francis of the Blue Jays comes out for the ninth inning, scheduled to face Mets top of the order, Francisco Lindor, Jose Iglesias, and Mark Vientos. Iglesias was hit by a pitch to go along with the one walk and one strikeout. Twenty four of the twenty seven Mets batters put the ball in play.

This is the second time in two weeks he goes into the ninth with a no-hitter.

The Blue Jays lead the Mets 1-0.

Update: Lindor falls behind 0-2. He hits the next pitch for a home run to tie the game. That’s how Francis lost the no-hitter against the Angels.

September 11, 2024

Francis Again

Bowden Francis of the Blue Jays is once again working on a no-hitter. Wednesday afternoon saw the Mets draw just one walk, but only one strikeout as well through seven innings. At 102 pitches, he might not come out for the eighth.

In his six previous starts, he allowed one hit three times, giving up just 15 hits in 40 innings.

The Blue Jays lead the Mets 1-0 in the bottom of the seventh in Toronto.

Update: Francis comes out for the eighth. Yes!

Update: Francis throws five pitches to get all three batters in the eighth, and he’ll take the no-no to the ninth. He’s giving the defense a work out, and so far the Blue Jays fielders have been up to the task.

September 11, 2024

Games of the Day

The Guardians go for a sweep of the historically bad White Sox as Matthew Boyd takes on Davis Martin. Boyd make his sixth start of the season, looking to improve on his 2.20 ERA. That’s well below his career average as he reduced his walk and home run rates in a small sample of 28 2/3 innings. Martin stands 0-3 despite a 3.29 ERA. That ERA may be better than his overall stats, as he allowed a .188 BA with runners in scoring position.

The Rays send Shane Baz against Zack Wheeler of the Phillies. Baz owns a .303 opposition OBP and a .347 slugging percentage, but that has not translated into wins. At the moment, Baz does not go deep in games. Wheeler looks for his 15th win of the season, which would be a new single season high for him. He is 23 Ks away from setting a single season mark in that stat as well.

Cole Ragans battles Luis Gil in the rubber game of the Royals at the Yankees. Ragans increased his K rate in a year that strikeouts are down, and he did that while reducing his walk rate. Gil also owns a K rate over 10 per 9 IP, but has yet to find his control.

Michael King and Bryan Woo take the mound in the Padres at the Mariners. King on the hill owns a 3.10 ERA, and needs about six inning to qualify for final season leaderboards. Woo comes in with a 2.36 ERA, and opponents own a low .230 BABIP against him, which makes up for his low K rate.

Enjoy!