Tag Archives: Vladimir Guerrero

September 24, 2024

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Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners moves into the fifth slot of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He went three for five with a double in a 6-3 win over the Astros to cut Houston’s lead in the AL West to four games. He went on a tear starting 8/28, with seven games of at least three hits in the last 24 starts.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays drops to third with an 0 for 4 in a 4-1 Red Sox win. Tanner Houck of the Red Sox posted an interesting line, five innings, one hit, one walk and no strikeouts. The Boston defense played well last night.

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers did not play on Monday as the teams took the day off. They rank one, four, and two respectively.

The best game score of the night belonged to Matt Chapman of the Giants, a 71. He went three four four with a walk, a triple, and a home run in a 6-3 win over the Diamondbacks. That drops the DBacks into the third wild card slot in the NL.

September 22, 2024

Best Batter Monday

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Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and four respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Soto posted an 0 for 3 with a walk and hit by pitch, While Judge walked twice, adding a double and a home run as the Yankees beat the Athletics 7-4 and reduced their magic number for clinching the division to one. His game score of 74 ranked fourth on the day, just behind the 76 posted by Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers. Ohtani played another big game, going four for five with a home run, his shot leading off the bottom of the ninth tying the game. He currently ranks third in the standings, but with two steals to go with the homer he now owns the best power/speed number for a single season, a 54.0.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays remains second as he goes three for five in a 4-3 Rays win to raise his BA .327, seven points behind Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals for the AL lead.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros moves back into the top five with a two for two, including a double, in a 9-8 Angels win. He left the game early with a knee injury.

The best game score of the day belonged to Triston Casas of the Red Sox. In game one of the doubleheader against the Twins he hits three home runs in four at bats as Boston takes game one 8-1. That resulted in a game score of 91, the 24th game this season of 90 or better. He walked twice in game two for a pretty good day at the plate.

September 22, 2024

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Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and five respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Soto proved his knee isn’t bothering him with a two for six night, while Judge went two for three with a walk and a home run, his 54th of the season. New York shut out Oakland 10-0. Brent Rooker of the A’s took and 0 for 4 in the game and ranks fourth.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays posted a three for five day to raise his BA to .324, but the Rays beat the Jays 3-2. Guerrero ranks 2nd on the board, and second in the AL in BA.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers rounds out the top five in third place. He singled and walked in four trips in a 6-3 Rockies win. He stole his 53rd base, with ties him with the 2023 Ronald Acuna Jr. for the best power-speed number at 52.5.

Kyle Tucker of the Astros posted the best game score of the day, an 84. He went four for four with a walk, double, and a home run to help in a 10-4 win over the Angels. He is hitting .405/.500/.667 since returning from the illjured list, making the Astros offense even more potent going into the playoffs. The Astros magic number to win the division stands at three, and the tie breaker in the AL West is not decided as they play the Mariners three more times.

September 21, 2024

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Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers moves back into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, jumping into the fourth slot. He went three for four with a home run and a stolen base as he returned home to Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers beat the Rockies 6-4. He now trails Ronald Acuna Jr.52.5 to 52.0 for best single season power-speed number.

When I looked at the Dodgers box score on Thursday and saw that Ohtani was three for three with two doubles in a blow out, I thought the Dodgers would give him the rest of the game off and allow him to join the 50-50 club in Los Angeles. Instead, Ohtani treats the home town fans to an extension of the group.

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and five respectively after a 4-2, ten innings Yankees win in Oakland. Judge drew a walk in four trips, while Soto did not start, due to a knee injury on a foul ball catch the day before. He was well enough to pinch hit, however, and doubled in a run in the tenth inning. In the same game, Brent Rooker of the Athletics took and 0 for 4 to rank third

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays ranks second after one for four in a 1-0 Rays win.

Two batters produced game scores of 79. Alec Bohm of the Phillies helped push the team a game closer to a division title with a four for five game, including a home run. The Phillies took the game over the Mets 12-2. It reduced Philadelphia’s magic number by three as the Phillies now hold the tie breaker with the Mets. They have clinched a playoff slot, and the next team win or Mets loss gives them the NL East title.

Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners posted a three four five game with two home runs and five RBI as Seattle pounded Texas 8-2. It’s his fourth game of at least three hits in September. The team remains five games back of Houston for the division and two games back in the wild card chase. They lose all wild card tie breakers, but they do have three games left with Houston.

September 20, 2024

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Thursday’s games changed the order of the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings just a bit. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and four respectively. Judge went one four three with a walk, while Soto drew a walk in a 3-2 Mariners win.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays moves back into second place after a three for four with a walk and two home runs. He tied for the second highest game score of the day at 82. The Blue Jays won a two-hit shutout of the Rangers 4-0.

Brent Rooker, in third place sat idle with the Athletics on Thursday, as did Manny Machado and the Padres, Machado in fifth place.

Now ranking sixth, Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers posted a game score of 115. He went six for six with two doubles and three home runs, driving in ten runs in a 20-4 win over the Marlins. The 115 is the highest of the season, the third game score over 100 this year and the 23rc over 90. Historically, it is the second highest game score since 1920, second only to Dodgers great Shawn Green, who posted a score of 117 on May 23, 2002. Ohtani also broke Green’s single season Dodgers record for home runs, 49 in 2001

Although stolen bases do not count for the batting score, he stole two bases to give him 51 homers and 51stolen bases on the season. That makes him the first offensive player to hit 50 homers and steal 50 bases. He has not quite caught up with Ronald Acuna Jr. in terms of power-speed number. Ohtani is at 51. Acuna, with 41 homers and 73 steals in 2023 stands at 52.5.

September 19, 2024

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Manny Machado of the Padres takes over the fifth slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a two for four, both hits home runs as San Diego beat Houston 4-0. Machado picked up his game mid June, and since then hit .307/.349/.586, with 40 of his 95 hits going for extra bases. Since then the Padres stand 50-28, with the best winning percentage in the majors.

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and four respectively after a 2-1, ten inning win over the Mariners. Judge drew a walk in four trips, while Soto singled and drew two walks. A base running mistake in the bottom of the tenth by 16th ranked Julio Rodriguez cost Seattle the game. The Yankees clinch a playoff berth and lead the Orioles by five games for the division lead.

Brent Rooker of the Athletics went two for three with two walks and an RBI, driving in hi 110th run of the season. That helped beat the Cubs 5-3, and puts Rooker in second place. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays went 0 for 4 in 2-0 Rangers win to rank 3rd.

The best game score of the day belonged to Marcell Ozuna of the Braves, a 75. He posted a three for four game with two doubles and a home run. Ozuna may be the best overall hitter in the NL this season. Although he doesn’t lead in any single average category, he ranks high in all three and is the only NL player to appear in the top five in all three. He currently ranks 17 on my list.

September 18, 2024

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Juan Soto of the Yankees moves back into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a two for two with two walks, a double and his 40th home run of his season and 200th of his career. His teammate, Aaron Judge, remains in first place as he posted a two for four with a walk and a double in an 11-2 win over the Mariners. New York owns a four-game lead over Baltimore, and the Mariners drop five games behind the Astros.

Second place Vladimir Guerrero Jr.went three for five with a double, but the Rangers take the game 13-8. In the same game, Wyatt Langford of the Rangers posted a game score of 82, tied for the best of the day. Langford went three for four with two walks, two doubles and a home run. He hasn’t produced much power in his rookie season with a .405 slugging percentage but he did knock out 25 doubles and four triples with his good speed.

Brent Rooker of the Athletics drops to third place after a one for three with a walk in a 4-3 win over the Cubs. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros singled and walked in a 4-3 win over the Padres for fourth place.

The other game score of 82 belonged to Jesus Sanchez of the Marlins, five for five with two doubles in an 11-9 win over the Dodgers. Sanchez needed a big game as his season averages sit at .252/.306/.424. In the second season of his prime years he failed to build on a pretty good 2023.

September 17, 2024

48-48 Club

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Shohei Ohtani hit his 48th home run of the season to match his 48 steals. That gives him a power/speed number of 48, second all-time to Ronald Acuna Jr.in 2023. In looking at the top PS numbers, none of the top scores came with the same number of home runs and steals. Ohtani seems to have been even a number of times this season. Canseco in 1988 and Bonds in 1996 were both 42 home runs and 40 steals. Soriano in 2002 was 39 HR and 41 SB. Vladimir Guerrero in 2002 and Matt Kemp in 2011 were both 39 home runs and 40 steals. You need to go down to Shawn Green in 1998, who was 35-35. Maybe it’s a Dodgers thing.

Also, with the top two PS number coming in the era of bigger bases and limited pick offs, some people might see Alex Rodriguez‘s 1998 season of 42 homer and 46 steals, a 43.9 PS, as the best power-speed season of all time. On the other hand, most of the other high PS numbers came in the steroid era, so maybe this is a good ranking after all.

September 17, 2024

Best Batter Today

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The idle Aaron Judge of the Yankees remains atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. His closest competition now comes from Brent Rooker of the Athletics. Rooker went two for five with a home run and two RBI in a 9-2 Cubs win. The also idle Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays drops to third place. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros posted a one for four for fourth place, and in the same game Luis Arraez of the Padres kept his hit streak alive with a two for four with a double and sits in fifth place. The Padres took the game 3-1.

Andrew Benintendi of the White Sox posted the best game score of the day, an 82. He blasted two home runs and two walks as Chicago wins their third game in a row, an 8-4 victory over the Angels.

Benintendi posted a miserable four months of play. Through July 25th he batted .196/.252/.308, with just 16 extra-base hits. That put him 157th in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Since then he hit .287/.362/.567 with 22 extra-base hits to rise to 11th in the Rankings.

September 15, 2024

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Luis Arraez of the Padres moves into fifth place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Arraez is on a tear with a 13 game hit streak in which he posted a .456/.508/.491 slash line. He went two for four with a double and a walk in a 4-3, 10 inning win over the Giants.

Aaron Judge of the Yankees remains first as he hit his 53rd home run of the season to go with two walks in a 5-2 win over Boston. Vladimir Guerrero of the Blue Jays walked twice in a 3-2 win over the Cardinals for second place.

Moving up into third place was Brent Rooker of the Athletics as he homered in a 4-3 White Sox win. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros slips to fourth place as he walked twice while making three outs in a 6-4 win over the Angels.

James Wood of the Nationals and Michael Busch each post game scores of 77, the highest on the day. Wood went two for three with a walk and two home runs, while Busch went three for five with two home runs.

September 15, 2024

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Francisco Lindor of the Mets moves into the fifth slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He did not play on Saturday due to a back injury, but is considered day to day. The race for fifth place is very close with five through nine separated by less than two points.

Aaron Judge of the Yankees remains on top after a one for four with a double in a 7-1 Red Sox win. That gives him 87 extra-base hits, so he would need to turn on the jets to reach 100 EXBH in 2024.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays ranks second after collecting a single and a walk in a 7-2 win over the Cardinals. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros posted a one for four with a walk and a home run for third place. Houston beat LAnaheim 5-3. Brent Rooker of the Athletics enjoyed a good night at the plate, going three for five in a rare White Sox win, 7-6. Rooker ranks fourth.

The highest game score of Saturday belonged to Willy Adames of the Brewers, an 84. He posted a perfect night at the plate, going three for three with a walk and two home runs in a 15-8 win over the Diamondbacks. Adames reached 32 home runs on the season, a new single season high for him.

September 15, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

The list runs a little longer today because ESPN lists both Rodgers and Fitzgerald as day to day. Both Mikolas and Buehler allow a high number of hits and the two slugger at the top of the list can take advantage of that. The Dodgers-Braves is the Sunday night game, so you may need to wait awhile for the starting lineups.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.285, 0.741 — Luis Arraez batting against Landen Roupp.
0.317, 0.738 — Jose Iglesias batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
0.325, 0.721 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.289, 0.714 — Yainer Diaz batting against Caden Dana.
0.319, 0.712 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Walker Buehler.
0.283, 0.705 — Jose Altuve batting against Caden Dana.
0.270, 0.705 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Jared Jones.
0.298, 0.702 — Xavier Edwards batting against MacKenzie Gore.
0.300, 0.698 — Michael Harris II batting against Walker Buehler.
0.304, 0.697 — Ernie Clement batting against Miles Mikolas.

The NN rates the pesky hitters like Arraez and Iglesias higher than the sluggers, but the sluggers still do well on the list. Note that both Arraez and Iglesias own decent hit streaks. Lawrence Butler, who is at 22 games, has a probability of getting a hit of .642 and a projected hit average of .242.

Guerrero comes in as the consensus top pick with Iglesias the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 14, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and five respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Judge ended his sixteen game home run drought with a two for three, including a walk, a single, and a grand slam to give the Yankees a 5-4 win over the Red Sox. Soto walked in four trips. The Yankees now lead the Orioles by three games in the AL East. Baltimore now has Kansas City to contend with for the first wild card slot, the Royals just two games back.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays ranks second as doubles and walks in a 4-3 win over the Cardinals in eleven innings. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros sits in third place as he homers in a 5-3 win over the Angles. Brent Rooker of the Athletics collects a single in the 2-0 win over the White Sox for fourth place.

The highest game score of the day belonged to Hunter Goodman of the Rockies, an 84. He went three for four with two home runs and seven RBI. The light hitting catcher does generate power, as eighteen of his 35 hits feel for extra bases.

September 13, 2024

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Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and five respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Judge went one for four as his homerless streak continues. Soto walked and doubled, his double driving in the Manfred Man in the tenth to beat the Red Sox 2-1.

Second place goes to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as he and the Blue Jays sat idle on Thursday.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros took an 0 for 4 in a 6-3 win over the Athletics. Brent Rooker of the A’s homered i for trips for fourth place.

Jon Singleton of the Astros went three for four with two doubles for a game score of 68, the highest on the day. Singleton did a decent job of getting on base this season. His batting average is a low .239, but with 42 walks his OBP comes in at .322. His weakness is power, as his slugging percentage stands at .393.

September 12, 2024

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Brent Rooker of the Athletics moved up a spot to fourth, about 0.3 points ahead of Juan Soto of the Yankees in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Rooker went two for five with two RBI in a 5-4 win over the Astros. Soto went one for five with a home run and two RBI in the Yankees 4-3, extra inning win over the Royals. His teammate, Aaron Judge went one for three with two walks to remain in first place.

Second place belongs to Yordan Alvarez of the Astros. He moved past Vladimir Guerrero Jr of the Blue Jays with with two for four game, while Guerrero went one for four in a 6-2 loss to the Mets, the Blue Jays wasting another near no-hitter by Bowden Francis.

The best game score of the day belonged to Eugenio Suarez of the Diamondbacks. He went four for four with two home runs in the 14-4 win over the Rangers. That was good for a score of 88. He jumps from 13th place to 6th place! He’s hitting .500/.558/1.132 in September.

September 11, 2024

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Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain first and fourth in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Both took an 0 for 4 with two Ks in a 5-0 Royals win, one of six shutouts on the day. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays went one four in a 6-2 win over the Mets to hold second place. The game drops the Mets into a tie with the Braves for the third wild card slot, the Braves downing Washington 12-0.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros went two for six in a 4-3, twelve inning Athletics win. Alvarez stays in third place, and Houston maintains their lead in the AL West as the Padres beat the Mariners 7-3. In the Athletics game, fifth place Brent Rooker went one for five.

The best game score of the day goes to Trey Turner of the Phillies, a 78. He went three for five with two home runs to beat out his teammate, Bryce Harper, who hit three doubles. The Phillies took the game against the Rays 9-4. Harper ranks 28th, Turner 67th. Turner had an interesting run over the last few weeks, posting a lot of nothing with a few big game puntcuation marks.

September 10, 2024

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Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and four respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Judge posted a two for four with walk while Soto went one for two with three walks as New York downed the Royals 10-4 in a game decided by the bullpens. James McArthur of the Royals failed to book Murder’s Row, while the Yankees bullpen pitched three shutout innings,

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays draws a walk in a 3-2 Mets win to hold second place. The Astros and Athletics sat idle on Monday leaving Yordan Alvarez and Brent Rooker in third and fifth place respectively.

Rob Refsnyder of the Red Sox posted the highest game score of the day, a 94. He went four for four with a walk, a double, and two home runs in a 12-3 rout of the Orioles. It was the second day in a row with a game score of 94. The majors have now seen 22 game scored of at least 90 this season. At seasonal age 33, Refsnyder already posted the best year of his career. His strength is getting on base, and his .362 OBP is in line with that. This season he added 16 doubles and 11 home runs to the mix for a slugging percentage of .474.

September 9, 2024

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Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank first and fifth respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Judge singled and walked, while Soto took an 0 for 4 in the 2-1 Cubs victory Sunday.

Vladimir Guerrero of the Blue Jays holds second place. He drew a walk in a 4-3 Braves win in a game that went eleven innings. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros drew a walk in four trips to the plate in a 12-6 Diamondbacks win for third place.

In that same game, Pavin Smith of the Diamondbacks went three four four with a walk and three home runs for a game score of 94, the best of the day. It’s the 21 game score of 90 or better this season, and the fifth best overall. He drove in eight runs in the game, hitting a grand slam, a three run homer, and a solo shot. It was a night to remember for Smith, who owns a career .394 slugging percentage.

Brent Rooker of the Athletics rounds out the top five in fourth place after drawing a walk in a 9-1 Tigers win.

September 8, 2024

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Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and four respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Judge walked once and Soto twice as pitching dominated again, the Yankees shutting out the Cubs for the second game in a row, 2-0.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays holds second place with one for five in a 9-5 win over the Braves. His teammate, Spencer Horwitz did a lot of damage in that game, going four for five with a double and two home runs for a game score of 87, the highest on the Saturday. After a cup of coffee in 2023, Horowitz should wind up playing over half the Jays games in 2024. His strength is getting on base, with a career .354 OBP. Power like last night would be a plus. Note that at seasonal age 26 he is not a prospect, but a player doing well in his prime.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros contributed to an 11-5 win over the Diamondbacks with a three for five night, including a double. That puts him in third place. Brent Rooker of the Athletic takes fifth place with a one for four in a 2-1 Tigers win.

September 7, 2024

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Yordan Alvarez of the Astros makes a big move on Friday night, going from sixth place to third in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. His two for four with two home runs and five RBI produced a game score of 75, tied for third best on the day. Houston beat Arizona 8-0.

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and four respectively. Judge doubled and walked in the 3-0 win over the Cubs, while Soto picked up a single. Judge leads the AL and the majors with 85 extra-base hits.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays sits in second place after a one for four in a 3-1 Braves win. Brent Rooker of the Athletics takes fifth place after going three for five with a double in a 7-6, 13 inning win over the Tigers.

Mark Vientos of the Mets and Manny Machado of the Padres tie for highest game score of the day, a 79. Both homered twice, Vientos second an extra-inning walk off to give the Mets a 6-4 win over the Reds. At seasonal age 24, Vientos emerged as a solid offensive player with excellent power, now batting .289/.342/.563 on the season. Machado got off to a slow start this season, with a .241/.293/.361 slash line through the end of May. It looks like the rust came off starting in June, as he has hit .298/.348/.544 since.

September 6, 2024

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The top three in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings received a day off on Thursday. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank first and third, while Valdimir Guerrero Jr sits in second place. He remains one and half points behind Judge.

Brent Rooker of the Athletics moves into fourth place with a two for five game, both hits home runs as Oakland fell to Seattle 6-4. Rooker is tied for fourth place in the AL home run race with 35.

In the same game, Luke Raley of the Mariners posted a game score of 73, the highest on the day. He went three for five with two doubles and a home run, his homer in the top of the ninth gave the Mariners the cushion they needed to survive Rooker’s second home run of the game.

Francisco Lindor occupies fifth place as the Mets also took the day off.

September 5, 2024

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Juan Soto of the Yankees jumps back into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with the second highest game score of the day, a 79. His three for three with a walk, a double and a home run moved him into third place. His teammate, Aaron Judge, barely stays in first place after drawing a walk in four trips to the plate. None of that was enough as Texas takes the game 10-6. The Rangers were one of five teams to score at least 10 runs on Wednesday.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays sits in second place after collecting a double in a 4-2 Phillies win. He sits a point and half behind Judge. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros holds ranks fourth after an 0 for 3 in a 12-5 Reds win. Francisco Lindor of the Mets rounds out the top five with a two for five with a double in an 8-3 win over the Red Sox. He owns a fifteen game hit streak, the longest active streak in the majors.

Luis Urias of the Mariners posted the best game score of the day, an 81. He went three for four with two doubles and a home run in a 16-3 win over the Athletics. His home run came off Janson Junk, making his Athletics debut. He allowed six hits and seven runs without record an out.

Urias is a three true outcomes hitter this season. In 99 PA, he struck out 33 times, walked eight times, was hit by a pitch five times, and hit four home runs. He owns a .174 BA with a .283 OBP and a .385 slugging percentage.

September 4, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies posted his second 100+ game score in a month, the only two 100+ game scores this season. He collected five hits in six at bats, three of them home runs. He added a double and six RBI for a game score of 101. His three run home run in the top of the ninth gave the Phillies their winning margin over the Blue Jays 10-9.

In the same game, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays went four for five with a double and a home run for the second highest game score of the day, a 79. That puts him second in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, just under three points behind Aaron Judge of the Yankees. Judge went one for five against Texas on Tuesday, the Rangers winning the game 7-4 on a walk-off grand slam by Wyatt Langford. The rookie is slugging just .382 on the season, but eight of his ten home runs came with men on base, two of the them grand slams. He is slugging .460 with men on base, so he applying his power when it does the most good. It’s one reason he drove in 60 runs this year.

Third place on the list belongs to Yordan Alvarez of the Astros who both had an off day. Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals sits in fourth place after a two for three with a walk in a 7-1 Guardians victory. With the Twins losing as well, Cleveland extends their AL Central lead to 4 1/2 games.

Francisco Lindor moves into the fifth slot, making the MVP chants more credible. He went two for four with a double and a home run in a 7-2 win over the Red Sox, raising his slugging percentage to .500. Lindor started collecting multi-hit games on 6/4, and stayed hot ever since. He ranked 37th at that time.

September 4, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top hit averages against starting pitchers:

Edwards kept popping up in the top ten during his stint on the illjured list. He is a high average hitter who walks a decent amount, but his hits are high enough to earn him a good hit average.

The NN produced this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.318, 0.751 — Luis Arraez batting against Keider Montero.
  • 0.297, 0.726 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Ben Lively.
  • 0.301, 0.719 — Yainer Diaz batting against Nick Martinez.
  • 0.306, 0.713 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
  • 0.275, 0.706 — Jose Iglesias batting against Tanner Houck.
  • 0.291, 0.705 — Jose Altuve batting against Nick Martinez.
  • 0.304, 0.704 — Xavier Edwards batting against MacKenzie Gore.
  • 0.286, 0.698 — Jackson Merrill batting against Keider Montero.
  • 0.285, 0.694 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Nick Martinez.
  • 0.269, 0.693 — Amed Rosario batting against Spencer Arrighetti.

Arraez comes out on top once again, with Guerrero the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 3, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

This might be the first time in a few years that Patrick Corbin pitched and no one batting against him made the list. Corbin improved lately, but I suspect the Marlins batters don’t have great numbers.

Once again I am impressed to see sluggers with high OBPs make the list, especially with Ozuna at the top. He is very high on a lot of leader boards that have to do with hits, and ranks in the top five in all three average categories.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

A somewhat different list, where the more traditional streak extenders join the sluggers. At this point, Witt belongs in the sluggers who get on base category, but long term he is more high BA, low OBP. There are also four teams with a day off, which is why we don’t see Luis Arraez.

Ozuna stands as the consensus top pick, while Harris beats out Guerrero for the double down slot.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 3, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Juan Soto moves back into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Soto went two for four with a walk in an 8-4 win over the Rangers. His teammate, Aaron Judge, remains in the top spot after a double.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.and the Blue Jays took Monday off, and Guerrero stays in second place.

The Astros did play and Yordan Alvarez doubled and walked in a 5-3 Reds win for third place. Brent Rooker of the Athletics doubled in four trips in a 5-4 win over the Mariners, spoiling Seattle’s chance to close ground on Houston. Rooker holds fifth place.

The best game score of the day came off the bat of Teoscar Hernandez of the Dodgers, he went five for five with a double and a triple in a 11-6 win over the Diamondbacks. That was good for a game score of 81, three points ahead of teammate Freddie Freeman, who homered twice. Six of Hernandez’s last eleven hits have gone for extra bases.

September 2, 2024

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Brent Rooker of the Athletics joins the top five in the five slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after a four for five in a 6-4 (which averages to five), two time five inning Rangers win. Rooker hovered on the edge of the top five for a while, hitting very well over his last 18 games. A slump by Juan Soto game him the in.

Aaron Judge of the Yankees remains in the top slot after drawing a walk in five trips to the plate in a 14-7 Cardinals victory, St. Louis one of three teams to score exactly 14 runs on the day. Jordan Walker led the way for the Cardinals with a five for five game, including a home run, for a game score of 85, the best on the day. That was the highlight of his 27 game season as that performance raised his averages to .195/.261/.305.

For a while, Judge and Soto carried the Yankees offense. Lately it seems that the rest of the team is hitting well, while Judge and Soto have gone a bit silent.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays stays in second place as the Blue Jays gave him a day off.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros and Bobby Witt Jr.squared off in Houston, and kept their respective third and fourth slot standings. Alvarez went two for four, both hits home runs. It’s his third multi-home run game in the last 18. Witt went one for four with a walk and a home run as Houston took the game 7-2.

September 1, 2024

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Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain one and four respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Soto went one for five as his slump continues. Judge posted a one for four with a walk as the Cardinals took the game 6-5.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays used a three for five to stay in second place as Toronto demolished the Twins 15-0. His teammate, Will Wagner, posted a game score of 84, the best of the day. Wagner went five for six with a double and a home run, and played both first and second base in the game. The rookie is hitting .357/.379/.571 in 56 AB. Another teammate, Nathan Lukes, missed the cycle by a homer in the game.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros went one for three with a walk as Houston downed Kansas City 5-2. He holds third place. Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals broke his string of hitless at bats with a home run in the eighth inning. He ranks fifth.

August 31, 2024

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Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and four respectively in the Baseball Musing Batter Rankings. Judge went 0 for 4 in the 6-3 win over the Cardinals. His probability of 63 home runs this season stands at 0.15. Soto, meanwhile, posted a two for four night with a double, allowing him to move into fourth place as Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals went 0 for 4 in a 3-2 Astros walk off win. He drops to fifth place. In that same game, Yordan Alvarez of the Astros picked up a single to remain in third place.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays also went 0 for 4 in a 2-0 Twins win.

Orlando Arcia of the Braves enjoyed a big game out of the seventh slot as he drew a walk and hit two home runs for a game score of 77, the best of the day. Arcia throughout his career showed decent power for a light hitting middle infielder. He now owns 32 home runs in his last two seasons with the Braves.

August 30, 2024

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Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees did not play on Thursday, an off day for the team. They remain one and five respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays did place, and hold second place with a two for four, including a double, in a 2-0 win over the Red Sox.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros and Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals went head-to-head in a 6-3 Houston win. Alvarez went two for four and ranks third, while Witt took an 0 for 4 to rank fourth.

The best game score of the day goes to Lawrence Butler of the Athletics, a 91. He went three for three with a walk and three home runs out of the lead-off slot in a 10-9 Reds win. It’s the second day in a row with a high game score above 90, both on three home run games. It was also Butler’s second three homer game this season. With 19 homer in 2024, nearly a third of them came in two games.