Tag Archives: Kansas City Royals

September 21, 2013

Massive Tie Scenario

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The Rays took 18 innings to beat the Orioles Friday night, an evening where the other games positively impacted the massive tie in the AL Wild Card race. The most wins for a six way tie remains at 88:

  • Yankees 7-1
  • Royals 7-2
  • Orioles 7-2
  • Indians 4-4
  • Rangers 5-4
  • Rays 4-5

The chance of the six way tie remains remote, but falls to about one in 30,000. The four way tie seems remote, too despite better odds, as all the trailing teams are down three wins. Time is running out. There could be a three or four way tie just for the second wild card as well.

The three-way tie for the top three spots remains strong, however, with a 1 in 30 chance of that happening. That’s looking more and more where we’ll get a tie.

The Dodgers Cardinals took ten innings to beat the Brewers on Friday, which was not the best, but not a bad outcome as the three NL Central contestants race for a three-way division tie. The best case scenario for a three-way tie in the NL Central stays at 93 wins:

  • Reds 5-3
  • Pirates 5-3
  • Cardinals 3-5

This scenario assumes the Reds go no better than 3-2 against the Pirates. The chance of this three-way improves to about 1 in 45, a little worse than the day before.

So to help the massive tie scenario along, here’s what I’d like to see on Saturday:

  • The New York Yankees defeat San Francisco
  • Baltimore beats Tampa Bay
  • Cleveland loses to Houston
  • Cincinnati and Pittsburgh doesn’t matter
  • Kansas City defeats Texas
  • St. Louis falls to Milwaukee

St. Louis and Tampa Bay losing will be the most important elements to advancing the massive ties.

September 20, 2013

Walking the Walk

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With men on first and third and two out in the bottom of the eighth, the Royals draw two walks to break a 1-1 tie with the Rangers. Neftali Feliz came on to face Alcides Escobar, who drew just 18 walks this season. Feliz threw four straight balls, and Escobar did not fish, and KC takes the lead. Holding it will help keep their playoff hopes alive.

Update: The Rangers go down 1-2-3 in the ninth, and the Royals win 2-1. They pull Texas out of the tie for the first wild card slot, as Cleveland passes the Rangers. If the Rays can beat Baltimore (that game is in the bottom of the 10th, then the Rangers will be in third place in the wild card race.

September 20, 2013

Massive Tie Scenario

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Thursday night held positives and negatives in the AL Wild Card race as far as the Massive Tie Scenario goes. The Rangers and Indians won to gain the Rays, but the Yankees and Orioles lost, so it’s getting much tougher for the trailing teams to catch up. They still have games against the leaders, however, and in that way have some control over their destiny. The most wins for a six way tie, however, drops to 88:

  • Yankees 8-1
  • Royals 8-2
  • Orioles 7-3
  • Indians 5-4
  • Rangers 5-5
  • Rays 5-5

The chance of the six way tie remains remote, but falling to one in 36,000. A four-way between the top four team stands at one in 226, and a three-way tie improved to one in 30. Note that these look at very specific cases. There could be a three or four way tie just for the second wild card as well.

There is a sub scenario in this that would be very disruptive. If everything happens like the above, but the Rangers go 6-4, it would create a five-way tie for the second wild card slot. A six way tie would require two days to determine the two wild card teams, then the wild card playoff. A five way tie for the second slot, however, would require three days to choose the second wild card team, with the wild card game on day four. So if you are looking for the most chaos, root for the Rangers to finish ahead of the Rays.

The NL Central race went perfectly on Thursday, with the Cardinals losing and the Pirates winning. The best case scenario for a three-way tie in the NL Central stays at 93 wins:

  • Reds 6-3
  • Pirates 5-4
  • Cardinals 4-5

This scenario assumes the Reds go no better than 4-2 against the Pirates. The chance of this three-way improves to about 1 in 40. The Pirates and Reds open a three-game series tonight, and play the last three games of the season against each other.

So to help the massive tie scenario along, here’s what I’d like to see on Friday:

  • Cleveland and Houston can go either way, leaning toward Cleveland winning
  • The New York Yankees defeat San Francisco
  • Cincinnati defeats Pittsburgh
  • Baltimore beats Tampa Bay
  • Kansas City defeats Texas
  • St. Louis falls to Milwaukee

There’s lots of head-to-head action this evening, so it’s a good time to improve or blow out the tie scenarios.

September 19, 2013

Massive Tie Scenario

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Things went perfectly in the AL Wild Card race Wednesday night, and the most wins for a tie remains at 89:

  • Royals 9-1
  • Yankees 9-1
  • Orioles 8-3
  • Indians 7-3
  • Rangers 7-4
  • Rays 6-5

The chance of the six way tie remains remote, but improved to about one in 24000. A four-way between the top four team stands at one in 230, and a three-way tie at one in 41. Note that these look at very specific cases. There could be a three or four way tie just for the second wild card as well.

The NL Central race saw the Reds gain on the Pirates, but not on the Cardinals. The best case scenario for a three-way tie in the NL Central drops to 93 wins due to the six games between the Pirates and Reds:

  • Reds 6-3
  • Pirates 6-4
  • Cardinals 4-6

This scenario assumes the Reds go no better than 4-2 against the Pirates. The chance of this three-way tie remains about 1 in 60. At some point, the Reds might need to root for Washington, the team chasing them, to win three against the Cardinals. If the Pirates lose today, they are tied with the Reds, and then Washington needs to root for one of the teams to sweep all six games head to head.

So to help the massive tie scenario along, here’s what I’d like to see on Monday:

  • Pittsburgh defeats San Diego
  • St. Louis falls to Colorado
  • Cleveland and Houston can go either way, leaning toward Cleveland winning
  • The New York Yankees defeat Toronto
  • Baltimore beats Boston
  • Texas wins over Tampa Bay
September 18, 2013

Massive Tie Scenario

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With the Yankees and Royals falling Tuesday night, the six way tie for the AL Wild Card is on life support. The most wins for a six way tie in the AL Wild Card race remains at 89:

  • Royals 10-1
  • Yankees 10-1
  • Orioles 9-3
  • Indians 7-4
  • Rangers 7-5
  • Rays 7-5

The chance of the six way tie remains remote, up to one in 56000. I’m still watching it, however, as the six teams play enough against each other that the leaders can still be drawn back to the bottom of the pack. We’ll see what happens tonight, but the Yankees and Royals pretty much need to run the table. A much more likely event would be the three-way tie between the Rays, Rangers, and Indians. There’s about a 1 in 34 chance of that happening, and big improvement from yesterday. A four-way tie that includes the Orioles comes in at 1 in 273.

The NL Central race went well, with the Reds gaining on the Pirates. The best case scenario for a three-way tie in the NL Central remains at 94 wins due to the six games between the Pirates and Reds:

  • Reds 8-2
  • Pirates 7-4
  • Cardinals 6-5

This scenario assumes the Reds go no better than 4-2 against the Pirates. The chance of this three-way tie is about 1 in 60. At some point, the Reds might need to root for Washington, the team chasing them, to win three against the Cardinals.

So to help the massive tie scenario along, here’s what I’d like to see on Monday:

  • Pittsburgh and San Diego can go either way
  • The New York Yankees defeat Toronto
  • Baltimore beats Boston
  • The game between Texas and Tampa Bay can go either way
  • The Royals win over the Indians
  • Cincinnati beats Houston
  • St. Louis falls to Colorado

There is the possibility of a four-way tie in the NL with Washington, which would be extremely disruptive to the playoff schedule. It would require a two-day playoff to determine the NL Central Champion, then a two-day playoff to determine the two wild card teams. The odds are too long right now, however.

September 17, 2013

Massive Tie Scenario

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Every game went as hoped for on Tuesday to increase the chances of massive ties in both leagues. The Royals blew out the Indians 7-1, and the Reds beat the Astros while both the Pirates and Cardinals lost. The most wins for a six way tie in the AL Wild Card race stands at 89:

  • Royals 10-2
  • Yankees 10-2
  • Orioles 10-3
  • Indians 8-4
  • Rangers 8-5
  • Rays 7-6

The chance of the six way tie remains remote, but dropped to around one in 31,000. I’m still watching it, however, as the six teams play enough against each other that the leaders can still be drawn back to the bottom of the pack. A much more likely event would be the three-way tie between the Rays, Rangers, and Indians. There’s about a 1 in 44 chance of that happening.

Note too, that if the Rays keep beating the Rangers, we fall back to a five way for second place, which would be somewhat more disruptive than a six way tie for both wild cards. It would only take two days to eliminate four teams, leaving two for the wild card game. It would take three days to eliminate four of the five teams for the second wild card, then they still have to play the wild card game.

The NL Central race went well also, but the best case scenario for a three-way tie in the NL Central drops to 94 wins due to the six games between the Pirates and Reds:

  • Reds 9-2
  • Pirates 7-5
  • Cardinals 7-5

This scenario assumes the Reds go no better than 5-1 against the Pirates. The chance of this three-way tie is about 1 in 82. At some point, the Reds might need to root for Washington, the team chasing them, to win three against the Cardinals.

So to help the massive tie scenario along, here’s what I’d like to see on Monday:

  • Pittsburgh loses to San Diego
  • The New York Yankees defeat Toronto
  • Baltimore beats Boston
  • Texas defeats Tampa Bay
  • The Royals win over the Indians
  • Cincinnati beats Houston
  • St. Louis falls to Colorado

There is the possibility of a four-way tie in the NL with Washington, which would be extremely disruptive to the playoff schedule. It would require a two-day playoff to determine the NL Central Champion, then a two-day playoff to determine the two wild card teams. The odds are too long right now, however.

September 16, 2013

Triple Trouble

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The Royals lead off the sixth inning with back-to-back triples. That extends their lead to 3-1 over the Indians, and a pinch-hit single by David Lough plates the fourth Royals run. Back in the glory days of the Royals, they hit a ton of triples. This season, they came into the game with 31, second in the AL. Maybe that’s a good sign for the season.

September 16, 2013

Massive Tie Scenario

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Sunday was a mixed result in the AL Wild Card race. The top two teams lost, so no team fell further behind. Two of the trailing teams won, but the team farthest back, the Royals, lost, so we lose a game off the best case scenario. The most wins for a six way tie in the AL Wild Card race stands at 89:

  • Royals 11-2
  • Yankees 10-2
  • Orioles 10-3
  • Indians 8-5
  • Rays 8-6
  • Rangers 8-6

The chance of the six way tie remains remote, about one in 50,000. I’m still watching it, however, as the six teams play enough against each other that the leads can still be drawn back to the bottom of the pack. A much more likely event would be the three-way tie between the Rays, Rangers, and Indians. There’s about a 1 in 47 chance of that happening.

The NL Central race went poorly, the Reds now down four games in the AFILC as both the Cardinals and Pirates won. The Reds are as far behind the NL Central leaders as the Nationals are behind the Reds, at least in terms of losses. The best case scenario for a three-way tie in the NL Central stays at 95 wins, however:

  • Reds 11-1
  • Pirates 8-5
  • Cardinals 8-5

This scenario assumes the Reds go 5-1 against the Pirates. The chance of this three-way tie is about 1 in 180.

So to help the massive tie scenario along, here’s what I’d like to see on Monday:

  • Pittsburgh loses to San Diego
  • Either outcome is fine in the game between Texas and Tampa Bay
  • The Royals defeat the Indians
  • Cincinnati beats Houston
  • St. Louis falls to Colorado

There is the possibility of a four-way tie in the NL with Washington, which would be extremely disruptive to the playoff schedule. It would require a two-day playoff to determine the NL Central Champion, then a two-day playoff to determine the two wild card teams. The odds are too long right now, however.

September 15, 2013

Football Sunday

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The Royals tie the Tigers in the top of the ninth on an Alcides Escobar double, steal of third, and a wild pitch. On the wild pitch, the ball bounced behind Eric Hosmer, who signaled Escobar to come home. He was also trying to move out of the way, when Alex Avila ran into Homser and knocked him over. It looked a little like Hosmer intentionally moved in from of Avila, but it looked more accidental to me, and to the umpire as well.

Despite being out-hit 12-6 by the Tigers, the Royals are in this game tied at two. Max Scherzer, despite a great pitching performance, will not win his 20th game.

Update: Avila homers in the bottom of the eighth to give Detroit the lead back, 3-2. It’s his second home run of the game, and he drove in all three runs.

Update: The Royals go quietly in the ninth, and the Tigers win 3-2. This was a much tighter game than it should have been. The Royals can’t afford many more losses if they want to make the playoffs.

September 15, 2013

The Hits Keep Coming

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The Tigers collected 11 hits off Jeremy Guthrie in five innings, but only scored two runs. Both of those came on an Alex Avila homer. In the fifth, the Tigers had men on 2nd and 3rd with none out, but three ground outs in a row failed to score the runners. Detroit is 0 for 9 with runners in scoring position, but lead the Royals 2-1.

September 15, 2013

Massive Tie Scenario

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Saturday, Sept 14, 2013, may go down as my favorite day ever in my years covering Massive Tie Scenarios. The Yankees and Orioles losing in the afternoon didn’t help, but Texas losing is now forcing me to consider a six-way tie! With Texas falling and Kansas City rising, the massive tie possibilities are truly massive. A six way tie has a best case number of wins of 90:

  • Royals 12-2
  • Orioles 12-2
  • Yankees 11-2
  • Indians 10-4
  • Rays 9-6
  • Rangers 9-6

There’s plenty of head-to-head competition as well, as Texas plays the Royals three times and the Rays four times. The beneficiary of all this may be the Indians, who play the Royals three times, but otherwise have an easy schedule. We could wind up with the Indians in the top wild card spot and a massive tie behind them. Or, we could just wind up with three-way for the two wild card slots with Texas, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland on top.

I assume a six-way tie for the two wild card slots would be decided in the following manner. The teams would be ranked 1-6 based on head to head record. Teams 3-6 play on day one, home field and opponent based on the ranking. The losers are eliminated. The winners travel to cities 1 and 2 the next day, and the winners of those games are the wild card teams, who then play each other for the right to go to the LDS.

The chance of a six-way tie is astronomical, about 1 in 58,000. The chance for a three-way tie between the Rangers, Rays, and Indians, however, is only 1 in 53. The chance of a four-way tie is in the high hundreds, but there are so many moving parts there, I’ll refrain from trying to get a good handle on that.

The NL Central race went very well, with the Cardinals losing and both trailing teams winning. St. Louis is having a tough time scoring against the Mariners. The best case scenario for a three-way tie in the NL Central stays at 95 wins

  • Reds 11-2
  • Pirates 9-5
  • Cardinals 9-5

This scenario assumes the Reds go no better than 5-1 against the Pirates. The chance of this three-way tie is about 1 in 82.

So to help the massive tie scenario along, here’s what I’d like to see on Saturday:

  • Baltimore defeats Toronto
  • Kansas City defeats Detroit
  • Pittsburgh loses to the Chicago Cubs
  • Cleveland can go either way against the Chicago White Sox, although a win would be better
  • Cincinnati wins over Milwaukee
  • Tampa Bay falls to Minnesota
  • St. Louis loses to Seattle
  • Texas falls to Oakland
  • New York beats Boston

ESPN has to put the Yankees-Red Sox on Sunday night. I’m going to be up late. Maybe Nova and Buchholz will both pitch well and the game will move.

September 14, 2013

Thunder Loss

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The Royals beat the Tigers 1-0 to gain on both the Yankees and the Orioles. The game ended with the ground shaking, as Prince Fielder tried to score from first on a double. Andy Dirks hit a long ball down the leftfield line, and Alex Gordon had to run to get to the ball. The third base coach sent Fielder, but a good relay throw from Alcides Escobar gave Salvador Perez plenty of time to apply the tag.

Ervin Santana pitched 6 2/3 strong innings allowing one walk while striking out five. He did not allow a run to the Tigers this season.

September 14, 2013

Massive Tie Scenario

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Friday was the first bad day for the Massive Tie Scenario this week, although not a completely horrible day. With the Rays winning and the Royals losing, the best case for a five-way tie drops to 91 wins:

  • Royals 14-1
  • Orioles 13-2
  • Yankees 12-2
  • Indians 12-3
  • Rays 11-5

The probability of a five-way tie is 0.00027, or about one in 3660. The highest probability outcome has the Rays going 7-9, with the Royals going 10-5. In the best case scenario, the Royals take at lest two of three from the Indians, the Orioles and Rays split four games, and the Yankees sweep the Rays. Looking at a four way tie between the top teams, the probability there is 0.0024, or a bit worse than 1 in 400.

The NL Central race went worse, with the Cardinals winning and both trailing teams losing. Poor fielding by the Mariners cost them the game, as a dropped popup and a poor throw on a double play grounder allowed the Cardinals to tie the game at one in the eighth. A passed ball let the winning run score in the 10th. The best case scenario for a three-way tie in the NL Central drops to 95 wins

  • Reds 12-2
  • Pirates 10-5
  • Cardinals 9-6

This scenario assumes the Reds go no better than 5-1 against the Pirates. The probability for this tie also degraded, down to 0.008, or about 1 in 125. The two trailing teams need a lot of help. Possibly that help could come from the Nationals, who are trying to chase down the Reds. Washington plays their penultimate series against the Cardinals.

So to help the massive tie scenario along, here’s what I’d like to see on Saturday:

  • New York beats Boston
  • Cincinnati wins over Milwaukee
  • Baltimore defeats Toronto
  • Pittsburgh beats the Chicago Cubs
  • Kansas City defeats Detroit
  • Cleveland can go either way against the Chicago White Sox, although a win would be better
  • Tampa Bay falls to Minnesota
  • St. Louis loses to Seattle

I realize that fans of particular teams don’t want this to happen. Since baseball has never even seen a three-way tie for a playoff spot, I can’t wait until they do.

September 13, 2013

Massive Tie Scenario

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Thursday was not a perfect day for the five way tie in the AL Wild Card race, but it wasn’t terrible either. The Indians trounced the White Sox 14-3 while the Yankees survived a comeback by the Orioles to win 6-5. Things would be a bit better if Baltimore had won, but we wake up with 2 1/2 games separating the five teams, and the best case for a five-way tie remains at 92 wins:

  • Royals 15-1
  • Orioles 15-1
  • Indians 14-2
  • Yankees 13-2
  • Rays 13-4

I worked on a spread sheet that provides the probabilities of various tie scenarios. Overall, the probability of a five-way tie stands at .00036, or about 1 in 2750. The highest probability outcome has the Rays going 8-9, with the Royals going 10-6. In the best case scenario, the Royals take two of three from the Indians, the Yankees lose two to the Rays, and the Orioles take three of four from the Rays.

The NL Central race went better, with the Cardinals losing and the Pirates winning. That creates a two-way tie atop the division, with the Reds 2 1/2 games out, three down in the AFILC. The best case scenario for a three-way tie in the NL Central remains at 96 wins

  • Reds 13-2
  • Pirates 11-5
  • Cardinals 11-5

This scenario assumes the Reds go 4-2 against the Pirates. The probability for this tie is much better, .011, or about 1 in 87.

So to help the massive tie scenario along, here’s what I’d like to see on Friday:

  • Cleveland beats the Chicago White Sox
  • Pittsburgh falls to the Chicago Cubs
  • Baltimore defeats Toronto
  • Kansas City defeats Detroit
  • New York beats Boston
  • Cincinnati wins over Milwaukee
  • Tampa Bay falls to Minnesota
  • St. Louis loses to Seattle

I realize that fans of particular teams don’t want this to happen. Since baseball has never even seen a three-way tie for a playoff spot, I can’t wait until they do.

September 12, 2013

Massive Tie Scenario

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Wednesday turned out to be another perfect day to advance the Massive Tie Scenario in the AL Wild Card race. The Yankees beat the Orioles in the evening, with Alex Rodriguez hitting another home run. The Rays lost to the Red Sox in ten innings, with Mike Carp hitting a pinch hit grand slam. The Yankees move into second place in the AL Wild Card race, and just two games separate the five teams. The best case for a five-way tie happens at 92 wins:

  • Royals 15-1
  • Orioles 15-2
  • Indians 15-2
  • Yankees 14-2
  • Rays 14-4

I worked on a spread sheet that provides the probabilities of various tie scenarios. Overall, the probability of a five-way tie stands at .00044, or about 1 in 2300. The highest probability outcome has the Rays going 8-10, with the Royals going 9-7.

The Yankees and Orioles play their final game tonight. Then in a week, the Rays host the Orioles for four, then travel to New York for a three-game series.

The NL Central race went okay, all three teams winning their games. The Cardinals played in the evening, with Lance Lynn striking out 10 Brewers in just six innings. The best case scenario for a three-way tie in the NL Central is down to 96 wins

  • Reds 13-2
  • Pirates 12-5
  • Cardinals 11-6

This scenario assumes the Reds go 4-2 against the Pirates. The probability for this tie is much better, .017, or 1 in 60 .010, or 1 in 100.

So to help the massive tie scenario along, here’s what I’d like to see on Thursday:

  • Baltimore defeats New York
  • Pittsburgh wins over the Chicago Cubs
  • Tampa Bay falls to Boston
  • Cleveland beats the Chicago White Sox
  • St. Louis loses to Milwaukee

I realize that fans of particular teams don’t want this to happen. Since baseball has never even seen a three-way tie for a playoff spot, I can’t wait until they do.

September 11, 2013

Shields Up

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James Shields comes through big in a must win game for the Royals as they defeat the Indians 6-2. Shields allows just four hits, a hit batter, and a walk while striking out seven as he lasts eight inning. Alex Gordon led off the game with a home run, and the Royals went on to score three in the first and never relinquished the lead.

The Royals took two of three from the Tribe in Cleveland, and now trail the Indians by 1/2 game, one down in the AFILC. KC now goes to Detroit for three games before hosting the Indians at home for three games starting next Monday.

September 11, 2013

Massive Tie Scenario

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Tuesday was a perfect night in the American League Wild Card race to help the teams along to a five-way tie. Two trailing teams beat two leading teams, and the Rays, who lead them all, fell to the Red Sox. The best case for a five-way tie happens at 92 wins:

  • Royals 16-1
  • Yankees 15-2
  • Orioles 15-3
  • Indians 15-3
  • Rays 14-5

Three games separate the five teams, although the loss column in all cases favors the Rays.

Things did not quite go so well in the NL race, as the Cardinals and Pirates won, putting distance between themselves and the losing Reds. The best case scenario for a three-way tie in the NL Central is down to 96 wins

  • Reds 14-2
  • Pirates 13-5
  • Cardinals 12-6

This scenario assumes the Reds go 4-2 against the Pirates. A bigger story might happen, however, if the Nationals can keep gaining on Cincinnati.

So to help the massive tie scenario along, here’s what I’d like to see on Wednesday:

  • Kansas City beats Cleveland
  • Cincinnati defeats Chicago
  • Pittsburgh wins over Texas
  • New York defeats Baltimore
  • Tampa Bay falls to Boston
  • St. Louis loses to Milwaukee

Also, if Texas loses again, there’s the possibility that two of the four trailing teams in the AL wild card race move into the playoffs!
If the AL games go this way, the five teams will be separated by just three games at the end of the day.

September 10, 2013

Ranying on Yost Parade

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Rany on the Royals points out all the problems with Ned Yost‘s managing in the ninth on Monday night.

If this is Yost’s final season as the Royals manager, I will remember him more fondly than most of his predecessors. Trey Hillman was overmatched. Buddy Bell was luckless and hapless. Tony Pena abandoned his team in the middle of the night. Tony Muser just wasn’t very good. Bob Boone wasn’t very good even though he apparently invented the game of baseball. Yost will have accomplished something during his time as the Royals’ manager, something I’m not sure I can say about any other manager since Hal McRae.

But at this point, his continued employment is a detriment to the organization. Tonight, with his team in a pennant race, in the most crucial inning his franchise has played since the year Back to the Future was released, Ned Yost cost his team the game with his indefensible decisions. It wasn’t the first time. And I fear it won’t be the last.

Let me play devil advocate for a minute. Rany’s main point is that if you bunt with men on 1st and 2nd to create a one out, men on second and third situation, the manager is looking for a single to drive the runners home, or at least least not-hit ball in play that will score the tying run from third. The Royals were trailing 4-3 on the road, however. By sending up Carlos Pena and George Kottaras, players who hit few singles, Yost was looking for the home run to give his team a two-run lead, or maybe a couple of walks to push across the tying run. Something in play short of a homer might still lead to a good result, and the team was probably staying out of the double play.

So Yost may have been playing for the big hit, and simply wanted to stay out of the double play with two slow players up who could hit home runs. My problem with that strategy is that once I have the tying run on third with one out, I would really want someone who can put the ball in play, either deep in the air or on the ground to a deep infield position. So I criticize Yost from a different angle, but I’m not quite as upset with the overall strategy.

One of the comments at the post thought the six pitches to Pena were all balls. I have to disagree. The three pitches that were called strikes looked like they nipped the corner to me, and the out pitch got a lot of the plate. Because Pena can’t hit anymore, umpires no longer give him the benefit of the doubt.

September 10, 2013

Massive Tie Scenario

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Monday turned out to be just an okay day for the Massive Tie Scenario. The Orioles and Indians beat the Yankees and Royals respectively. In general, I prefer to see the trailing teams gain, but in this case, the Yankees and Royals need to lose to these teams at some point. In addition, the Orioles and Indians gaining on the idle Rays makes a three way tie more likely, and that’s a perfectly fine massive tie. So nothing much changes from Monday. The best case for a five-way tie happens at 92 wins:

  • Royals 17-1
  • Yankees 16-2
  • Orioles 15-4
  • Indians 15-4
  • Rays 14-6

The Royals play five games with the Indians, and KC needs to win four and lose one for this scenario to work. If the Rays go 10-10 the rest of the way, the Royals would need to go 13-5. That’s a high winning percentage, but it’s not that difficult over 18 games. Small sample sizes work for the MTS.

The Pirates and Rangers played a minimum run win Monday night, while the Reds fell. The Pirates and Reds now have the same number of wins, but Pittsburgh has two games in hand. So to make up the two losses, the Reds will need to take four of the six games remaining against the Pirates. The best case scenario in this division remains at 97 wins.

  • Reds 15-2
  • Pirates 15-4
  • Cardinals 14-5

So to help the massive tie scenario along, here’s what I’d like to see on Tuesday:

  • New York defeats Baltimore
  • Kansas City beats Cleveland
  • Cincinnati beats Chicago
  • Tampa Bay falls to Boston
  • Pittsburgh wins over Texas
  • St. Louis loses to Milwaukee

If the AL games go this way, the five teams will be separated by just three games at the end of the day.

September 9, 2013

Inching up on the Rays

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The Orioles beat the Yankees and the Indians beat the Royals as both victors gain 1/2 game on the idle Rays. Chris Tillman pitched a brilliant game for the Os, striking out nine without a walk as he lasted seven innings. That helped the Orioles to a 4-2 win, although Curtis Granderson came close to tying the game in the last at bat as he flied out to the wall in center with a man on base. Ubaldo Jimenez pitched even better than Tillman, mixing up his pitches to strike out ten Royals for a 4-3 victory. Jimenez also lasted seven innings, Chris Perez making it interesting in the ninth. The Royals had men on second and third with one out, and pinch hitter Carlos Pena got ahead 2-0. Perez painted the outside corner twice, and Pena never took the bat off his shoulder as he struck out looking at a slider. Alex Gordon flew out with the bases loaded to end the game.

Baltimore and Cleveland now sit 1 1/2 games behind the Rays. It wasn’t a great night for the four or five way tie, but a very good one for the three-way tie.

September 9, 2013

Massive Tie Scenario

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Sunday was an okay day for the Massive Tie Scenarios. The Rays won, but the scenario for the AL Wild Card race does not expect them to lose all the time. The Yankees and Royals gained on the Orioles and Indians, so the four teams chasing the Rays are bunched together. It’s time to bring the Royals into the picture, as including them doesn’t change the four-way tie at all. The most wins for a four or five way massive tie is down to 92.

  • Royals 17-2
  • Yankees 16-3
  • Orioles 16-4
  • Indians 16-4
  • Rays 14-6

The Royals play six games with the Indians, and KC needs to win four and lose two for this scenario to work. If the Rays go 10-10 the rest of the way, the Royals would need to go 13-6. That’s a high winning percentage, but it’s not that difficult over 19 games. Small sample sizes work for the MTS.

Things did not quite go as well in the NL Central, where division leader St. Louis beat second place Pittsburgh. However, with the Reds winning, two and three are in a virtual tie, Pirates having two games in hand. The following produces a three-way tie with 97 wins:

  • Reds 15-3
  • Pirates 16-4
  • Cardinals 14-5

Being tied, the Reds and Pirates can split their six remaining games. Again, records closer to .500 produce many more possibilities, but the Reds and Pirates need to be separated by an odd number of games going into their final three-game series to keep this alive.

So to help the massive tie scenario along, here’s what I’d like to see on Monday:

  • New York defeats Baltimore
  • Kansas City beats Cleveland
  • Cincinnati beats Chicago
  • Pittsburgh wins over Texas

I should note that the two AL games can really go either way. My feeling is that I want to see the trailing teams gain. The best thing would be for the Yankees and Orioles to split, the Royals take two of three from the Indians, and the Rays get swept. That way, everyone gains ground during the first series of the week.

September 8, 2013

Chen Music

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Bruce Chen continues to impress as he runs his record to 7-2 with a 2.79 ERA. He helps the Royals beat the Tigers to keep hope alive in Kansas City for a wild card berth. Chen is now 4-2 as a starter, having walked 14 and struck out 41 in 66 1/3 innings. Eric Hosmer went 3 for 4 with a homer in support, and he’s now batting .302 on the season with a .356 OBP. It was worth the wait for his bat to come around.

September 8, 2013

Massive Tie Scenarios

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The right teams continue to win and lose to make the two remaining massive tie scenarios more likely. In the American league, a four-way tie can still happen at 93 wins:

  • Yankees 18-2
  • Orioles 17-4
  • Indians 17-4
  • Rays 16-5

For this to happen, the Yankees would need to go 3-1 against the Orioles and 2-1 against the Rays, they the Orioles would go 3-1 against the Rays. Of course, the Rays would need to win all other games at that point. (I said it was possible, not probable.) This is best case, however. If the teams play close to .500 the rest of the way, there are many more combinations that produce a three or four way tie. The Royals are still hanging on the edge of this race; if they catch the Yankees, they will move into the mix. It’s also possible that by the end of play on Sunday, we have a three-way tie for the second wild card slot.

In the NL Central, the Cardinals beat the Pirates and the Reds downed the Dodgers, so both teams gained on Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are now chasing St. Louis, however, as the Cardinals own one more win that the Pirates, but are tied in the AFILC. The following produces a three-way tie with 98 wins:

  • Reds 17-2
  • Pirates 17-4
  • Cardinals 16-4

The Pirates do need to win today to make this possible, then go 2-4 against the Reds. Again, records closer to .500 produce many more possibilities, but the Reds and Pirates need to be separated by an odd number of games going into their final three-game series to keep this alive.

So to help the massive tie scenario along, here’s what I’d like to see on Sunday:

  • Cleveland triumphs over the NY Mets
  • The New York Yankees defeat Boston
  • Baltimore beats Chicago
  • Pittsburgh salvages a game against St. Louis
  • Tampa Bay falls to the Mariners
  • Cincinnati wins against the Los Angeles Dodgers

Usually when I start keeping track of these things, a team at the top takes off, or some teams at the bottom fall. So far, most everything is going right. A Yankees win would be quite helpful, although there is not that much difference in terms of days added to the schedule between a three and four way tie. What would be really cool is a five-way tie involving the Royals. Note this is not covered under the published rules. I assume, given how the league breaks lesser ties, that they would do something like this:

  1. Rank the teams by head-to-head record.
  2. Best record gets a bye on day one.
  3. Team two hosts team five, team three hosts team four on day one.
  4. The two winners and the team with the bye go into a three-team playoff, reranked by head-to-head.

Alternatively, you could have a playoff between four and five the first day, then go into a four-game playoff scenario on day two. Note that the current ranking for the five teams would by NY, TB, CK, CLE, BAL. Cleveland and Baltimore have the save .455 winning percentage, but Cleveland won four of the seven games against the Orioles.

September 6, 2013 September 5, 2013

Nice Win

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The Royals showed some resiliency Thursday afternoon. They fought back from a 5-0 Mariners lead to take a 6-5 score into the ninth. Raul Ibanez, however, pulled one of his patented miracles, and hit a two-out, 3-2 pitch out of the park to tie the game and send it into extra frames. Mike Moustakas led off the bottom of the 13th, hitting an 0-2 pitch out for a walk-off homer and a 7-6 Royals win. Kansas City needed that to stay in the wild card hunt. They’ve won four of their last five games and nine of their last 12.

September 5, 2013

Two Moves

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The Royals just scored three runs in the bottom of the fifth inning to cut the Mariners lead to 5-3. There were two interesting managerial moves in that inning. Salvador Perez singled to drive in the third run, making him the tying run. Despite being 3 for 3 and one of the better hitters on the Royals, Brett Hayes pinch ran and stayed in as catcher. The trade-off in terms of batting is more outs for more power later in the game. (I also don’t know if Perez was hurt.)

Then with the bases loaded and two out, Carlos Pena pinch hits for Johnny Giavotella. Pena, of course, is better at taking pitches, and had a much better chance of drawing a walk to drive in a run. He struck out. So neither of Ned Yost‘s moves bore fruit, but it’s nice to see his thinking, and interesting to see him playing the fifth inning as most managers would play the eighth or ninth.

Update: Perez was hit in the mask in the top of the inning.

September 3, 2013

Yankees Death Watch

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What’s so great about New York? I mean, it’s a dying city. You read Death in Venice.

The New York Yankees keep denying George King a funeral as they stage a late comeback to beat the White Sox 6-4. Down 4-1, the Yankees scored five runs in the bottom of the eighth. The veterans came through as Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rodriguez, and Curtis Granderson all collected hits. Mariano Rivera came on for the save, and the White Sox waste an excellent outing by Chris Sale.

With the Orioles ninth inning comeback falling short, they lose to the Indians 4-3. That makes the race for the AL Wild Card a bit tighter among the trailing teams. For the moment, the Yankees are two back of the Rays, the Orioles 2 1/2 back, and the Indians three back. Kansas City and Seattle are tied late in the game, while Tampa Bay and the Angels are just underway. We could have five teams separated by 3 1/2 games tomorrow morning.

September 1, 2013

Wild Scramble

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With the Rays getting swept by the Athletics and the Red Sox sweeping the White Sox, the races in the AL are down to Texas and Oakland playing for the AL West/First Wild card, and the five team race for the second wild card slot. Yes, the Rays could catch the Red Sox, as they have three more games head to head, but Boston is a very good team and I expect them to play well enough down the stretch to win the division.

So as of tonight, 5 1/2 games separate the Rays from the Royals with the Orioles, Yankees, and Indians all 3 to 3 1/2 games back. The Rays have seven games in a row against the Orioles and the Yankees toward the end of the month. Baltimore plays Cleveland starting tomorrow, as well as the Yankees and Rays. The Indians and Royals play each other six times, but the Royals are going to need the most help from outside forces. They have to hope that the Orioles, Rays, and Yankees split their series while the Royals go on a winning streak that would let them gain on everyone.

Of course, I would love to see a massive tie for the second slot. That can happen with the Royals going 23-3 and the Rays going 18-9, and the other three teams each winning 21 games. We’ll know know about the massive tie possibilities in a week.

September 1, 2013

Shields Up

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James Shields pitches a great game for the Royals as they take the final game against the Blue Jays 5-0. Shields allowed just one walk and three hits as he struck out nine. With a 3.03 ERA, the Royals certainly got their money’s worth out of James this year, but with the Rays more likely to make the playoffs, the Wil Myers trade didn’t work out exactly as expected.

August 31, 2013

Not Yet Dead

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Although George King wants the Yankees dead, New York isn’t giving up that easily. The beat the Orioles 8-5 Friday night, catching one of the three teams they need to pass to win a wild card. They gained in all their races, as the Royals, Indians, and Rays also lost. The Yankees are now tied with Cleveland, 4 1/2 games out of the second wild card slot. A win on Saturday puts the Yankees ahead of the Orioles, meaning at worst they would be tied for the first spot out of the wild card race (third among not division leaders). At that point, they really only have one team to pass, which I think George would agree is quite possible with a month left in the season. 🙂

It was a good night for Suzukis as Ichiro Suzuki homered for the Yankees and Kurt Suzuki homered for the Athletics. Ichrio’s two run shot in the fifth gave the Yankees a lead they would not relinquish, while Kurt’s three run shot was the only mistake Davis Price made in an otherwise well pitched game.

Losing Miguel Cabrera again didn’t stop Detroit from pounding the Indians, the Tigers winning 7-2 in a rain shortened game. Andy Dirks went 2 for 2 in Miguel’s place, so it was just like having the slugger in the lineup. 🙂

The Royals ended their winning streak as Mark Buehrle pitched seven shutout innings. Toronto managed just four hits, but three of those went for extra bases.

So everything worked in the Yankees favor Friday night, which should have them singing!