Sunday was a mixed result in the AL Wild Card race. The top two teams lost, so no team fell further behind. Two of the trailing teams won, but the team farthest back, the Royals, lost, so we lose a game off the best case scenario. The most wins for a six way tie in the AL Wild Card race stands at 89:

• Royals 11-2
• Yankees 10-2
• Orioles 10-3
• Indians 8-5
• Rays 8-6
• Rangers 8-6

The chance of the six way tie remains remote, about one in 50,000. I’m still watching it, however, as the six teams play enough against each other that the leads can still be drawn back to the bottom of the pack. A much more likely event would be the three-way tie between the Rays, Rangers, and Indians. There’s about a 1 in 47 chance of that happening.

The NL Central race went poorly, the Reds now down four games in the AFILC as both the Cardinals and Pirates won. The Reds are as far behind the NL Central leaders as the Nationals are behind the Reds, at least in terms of losses. The best case scenario for a three-way tie in the NL Central stays at 95 wins, however:

• Reds 11-1
• Pirates 8-5
• Cardinals 8-5

This scenario assumes the Reds go 5-1 against the Pirates. The chance of this three-way tie is about 1 in 180.

So to help the massive tie scenario along, here’s what I’d like to see on Monday:

• Pittsburgh loses to San Diego
• Either outcome is fine in the game between Texas and Tampa Bay
• The Royals defeat the Indians
• Cincinnati beats Houston
• St. Louis falls to Colorado

There is the possibility of a four-way tie in the NL with Washington, which would be extremely disruptive to the playoff schedule. It would require a two-day playoff to determine the NL Central Champion, then a two-day playoff to determine the two wild card teams. The odds are too long right now, however.