Tag Archives: Yusei Kikuchi

September 7, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Brantley, and his teammate Alex Bregman, are both 0 for 5 against Kikuchi, but without a strikeout. With 6.5 K per 9 IP, Kikuchi does not strike out batters at a high rate by today’s standards. If those two batters keep putting the ball in play against Kikuchi, balls will start finding holes.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.319, 0.751 — Jeff McNeil batting against Drew Smyly.
  • 0.324, 0.748 — Michael Brantley batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.307, 0.741 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Adam Wainwright.
  • 0.313, 0.739 — Jose Altuve batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.290, 0.737 — Hanser Alberto batting against Jonathan Hernandez.
  • 0.313, 0.735 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.295, 0.732 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Travis Lakins.
  • 0.300, 0.730 — Kevin Newman batting against Adam Wainwright.
  • 0.298, 0.727 — Corey Dickerson batting against Marcus Stroman.
  • 0.278, 0.722 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Joey Lucchesi.

McNeil and Brantley swap spots, and they are tied for the consensus first pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 13, 2019

Game of the Day

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The Oakland Athletics send Mike Fiers against the Mariners and Yusei Kikuchi. Fiers goes for two no-hitters in a row. His high ERA of 5.48 mostly has to do with allowing eight home runs in 46 innings. We’ll see if the no-no was a turning point for him. Kikuchi owns a 3.54 ERA, but has just three decisions in nine starts. He averages just over five innings a start, which leaves too many innings in the game for a decision to go to someone else. He’s only walked 10 batters in his 48 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

May 8, 2019 April 15, 2019

Games of the Day

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Two good pitchers off to poor starts square off in Philadelphia as Noah Syndergaard and the Mets take on Aaron Nola and the Phillies. In 19 innings, Syndergaard walked two and allowed thirteen hits, but despite those excellent number ten runs crossed the plate. Opponents are five for eleven against him with runners in scoring position. Nola’s 6.46 ERA, on the other hand, is well deserved. He allowed five home runs and eight walks in 15 1/3 innings.

Trevor Bauer leads the Indians into Seattle to face Yusei Kikuchi. Bauer has been a little wild this season, with eight walks in 19 2/3 innings, but makes up for it by being difficult to hit. Kikuchi makes the fifth start of his MLB career. He’s showing excellent control with just three walks in 21 2/3 innings. He did allow four home runs, however.

Finally, the Reds join the Dodgers for a celebration of Jackie Robinson as Luis Castillo takes on Clayton Kershaw. Castillo has the same number of walks and innings as Bauer, and like Bauer, his high K rate makes him tough to hit. Opponents managed just five hits against Castillo, all singles. Kershaw returns to the mound after a shoulder injury. He struck out 12 in 10 1/3 minor league innings warming up for the season.

Enjoy!

March 21, 2019

Game of the Day

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The Mariners and Athletics finish the Japan series with Yusei Kikuchi making his major league debut against Marco Estrada, making his Oakland debut.

Kikuchi pitched for Seibu in Nippon Profession Baseball (NPB). He plays 2019 as a 28 year old, and his career was solid. In the last two years, however, he upped his strikeout rate and greatly lowered his walk rate, something that should have attracted the attention of MLB teams. His innings pitched are fairly low by MLB standards, however, so we will see how he holds up under a full season. On the other hand, with so few innings he may not have stressed his arm as much.

Estrada joins his fourth team after a down year in Toronto. He averaged 8.1 K per 9 IP through the 2017 season, but dropped to 6.5 K per 9 IP in 2018. The main difference appears to be a loss of velocity on his cutter. His fastball velocity has been consistent throughout his career, but he cannot throw the cut fastball as hard as he used to.

Enjoy!

January 1, 2019

Mariners After Dark

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The Seattle Mariners signed a Japanese free agent pitcher as 2018 slipped out the door:


Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi agreed to a deal with the Seattle Mariners late Monday night, delivering a New Year’s surprise for a team that has traded a number of foundational pieces already this winter, league sources familiar with the deal told ESPN.


The 27-year-old Kikuchi was among the best free-agent pitchers left on the market and drew widespread interest before selecting the Mariners. Kikuchi must have a signed deal by Wednesday, when the window for his posting by the Seibu Lions runs out. The deal guarantees Kikuchi four years.

ESPN.com

The reason for the Mariners is not clear:


It wasn’t the sort of move consistent with their previous rejiggering this offseason, and yet general manager Jerry Dipoto has stated a desire to compete again by 2021, according to sources, and a deal with Kikuchi will place him in Seattle in that window.

With Dipoto trading away a number of stars, I suspect there will be less local interest in the Mariners this season. The signing of Kikuchi should bring in the Japanese audience, and the advertising dollars generated by that audience.