Tag Archives: Giovanny Urshela

June 28, 2019

All Star Team

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The new All-Star voting is done, but did it do a better job of picking a team than past voting methods. My hope was that if some group stuffed the ballot box for a particular player or a particular team, the final three-way voting would reverse that gaming of the system. I think we saw that with the second base vote in the AL. Jose Altuve, despite injury and batting poorly when playing, managed to make the top three at the position. D.J. LeMahieu took the final vote, however.

Now, I don’t want to argue that Altuve is not an all-star, his past few seasons solidifies him as one of the best players in the game. Given that he spent considerable time on the disabled list, however, he’s probably not an all-star this year. A similar thing happened at third base in the AL, where Gio Urshela made the top three on the strength of half a season of quality hitting, but Alex Bregman, the better long-term and short-term player, won the vote.

Looking at the teams, these are good teams. You can argue about a player here or there, but it appears the new voting method did the job of lessening the gaming of the system.

June 13, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

It should be a good day to be Yankees batter.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.355, 0.752 — David LeMahieu batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.318, 0.733 — Jorge Polanco batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.307, 0.726 — J.D. Martinez batting against Adrian Sampson.
  • 0.336, 0.723 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.273, 0.720 — Howie Kendrick batting against Zack Greinke.
  • 0.274, 0.715 — Jeff McNeil batting against Jack Flaherty.
  • 0.282, 0.714 — Nolan Arenado batting against Matt Strahm.
  • 0.283, 0.713 — David Dahl batting against Matt Strahm.
  • 0.298, 0.713 — Justin Turner batting against Jon Lester.
  • 0.299, 0.713 — Dee Gordon batting against Michael Pineda.

This list is much less Yankee focused, but LaMahieu remains the top pick, with Urshela and Polanco tied for consensus second pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 24, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Three Yankees make the list, including the surprising Giovanny Urshela. This may be the high point of Urshela’s career. 🙂 Junis allows a high number of hits, but he also walks a high number of batters.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.308, 0.731 — Javier Baez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
  • 0.310, 0.724 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jakob Junis.
  • 0.306, 0.722 — David Peralta batting against Drew Pomeranz.
  • 0.299, 0.717 — Jeff McNeil batting against Gregory Soto.
  • 0.296, 0.715 — Jorge Polanco batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
  • 0.299, 0.715 — Cody Bellinger batting against Montana DuRapau.
  • 0.269, 0.713 — Jean Segura batting against Chase Anderson.
  • 0.295, 0.712 — Freddie Freeman batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.284, 0.712 — J.D. Martinez batting against Wade Miley.
  • 0.282, 0.706 — Jose Martinez batting against Mike Foltynewicz.

Baez and LeMahieu tie for the consensus first pick. The two systems are in pretty good agreement today, basically agreeing on who should be in the top seven.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 18, 2019

Small Sample Size Theater

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Gio Urshela singled to drive in the winning run in the Yankees walk-off win against the Rays Friday night. That capped a three for four night for Urshela, leaving him at .347/.398/.500 for the season in 108 plate appearances. In parts of three previous seasons in the majors, Urshela hit .225/.274/.315 in 499 PA. His minor league record is unremarkable, and given his history, the previous three seasons of batting levels is appears to be his true talent level.

Anything can happen in 100 PA. Is there anything that indicates that Urshela changed for the better, or is this hot streak a player getting lucky? He is hitting more line drives this season, and the great majority of his balls in play are hit with some authority. Urshela’s percentage of balls scored as softly hit is down.

His plate discipline has not changed. He is swinging at pitches in and out of the strike zone at about the same rate as before. He’s making a bit more contact on pitches outside the zone, but those aren’t pitches usually hit for line drives. If you look at StatCast data, he is hitting the ball harder, but not barrelling the ball up any more than usual.

The bottom line is that Urshela is doing pretty much the same things he always did, but he hits the ball harder. That leads me to believe he is stronger than before. At seasonal age 27, he should be at the peak of his performance. He did talk about changes he made since joining the Yankees last season:


“I got to the Yankee organization last year,” Urshela said in the video, “went to Triple-A, and worked with the hitting coach, Phil. We talked a lot about hitting, about a lot of stuff. We basically talked about using my legs more. … Right now, that’s what I’m doing.”


“Phil” is Triple-A hitting coach Phil Plantier, who played parts of eight seasons in the Majors and was the Padres’ hitting coach from 2012-14. The change is easy when you look at the video, comparing Urshela in Yankee Stadium in 2015 with Cleveland to what he looks like in pinstripes this year. His hands are slightly lower, and his stance is much more open.

MLB.com

Urshela reached the minor leagues at age 17, and it took nine years for someone to say, “Use your legs more?” Maybe being out of options, Urshela finally took the advice to heart.

I am very skeptical that this improvement is for real. I would love to be proved wrong, however.

October 9, 2017

Another Error

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Giovanny Urshela makes his second error of the night. With the bases loaded in the third and two out, Brett Gardner grounds to Urshela at third. His throw pulls Carlos Santana off the bag, and the Yankees lead 5-0. Mike Clevinger is ineffective in relief as the Indians go to the bullpen for the third time in the game.

July 4, 2015 June 14, 2015

Chocolate Thunder

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The Indians called up 21-year-old prospect Francisco Lindor to play shortstop:

The much-anticipated call that many Indians fans have been clamoring for was made Saturday night, as news broke via social media that Cleveland would promote its top prospect Lindor from Triple-A Columbus in time for Sunday’s game against the Detroit Tigers. Lindor received the word of his new destination during a rain delay in the Clippers’ Saturday evening contest.

The move has been a long time coming and has tested the patience of many fans of the feather as the shortstop play this season, both at the plate and in the field, had left something to be desired in terms of productivity.

Indeed, shortstop was a black hole offensively, producing a .201/.263/.260 slash line. Shortstops aren’t expected to hit well, but they need to be better than a productive pitcher. Don’t expect Lindor to hit for power, but if he can get on base at a .320 or .330 clip, he’ll greatly improve the position. Defense at the position was near the bottom in UZR/150, so it should be easy to improve there, too.

There are other holes in the Cleveland lineup as well, but they may have fixed third base with Giovanny Urshela. The Indians kept their left-side of the infield prospects down long enough to avoid super-two status, so they are set up to be very productive on that side for the next six and a half years.

June 11, 2015

Urshela Homers

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Giovanny Urshela singled and homered, his first two major league hits as the Indians take a 6-0 lead to the bottom of the eighth against Seattle. Urshela replaced Lonnie Chisenhall at third base. Chisenhall batted .209/.242/.349 as a third baseman this season. Urshela developed slowly, first showing a decent ability to hit for power at age 20 at high A Ball, with little power before that. That disappeared at AA the next season, but he tore up AA in 2014, even doing a decent job of getting on base. That carried over to AAA that year, and he maintained the power at AAA this season. If he gets on base at a .300 clip and hits for power, he’ll be an improvement over Chisenhall.